Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Iron]

Adelaide are entrenched in the zone arent they. Abundantly clear that they are the team to beat

The problem with that analysis is that you're saying that now, after we shot into "contention" on the back of a win against Brisbane, and not three weeks ago after we lost, again, to a real contender in Geelong.

I think we're the weakest link in the top 4 presently, except for maybe GWS who can be a little flakey as well.

 

[Glenno23]

Adelaide are entrenched in the zone arent they. Abundantly clear that they are the team to beat

Except when we play you lot

05 and 06, Sydney were our bunnies, didn't get to play them in a final. We couldn't beat WC to save our lives.

This year, we can't beat you to save our lives and i'm dead certain who we're gonna face in a final....

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Except when we play you lot

05 and 06, Sydney were our bunnies, didn't get to play them in a final. We couldn't beat WC to save our lives.

This year, we can't beat you to save our lives and i'm dead certain who we're gonna face in a final....

Except Sydney were still our bunnies in 2012 and we played them in a home QF and had our pants pulled down.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

The problem with that analysis is that you're saying that now, after we shot into "contention" on the back of a win against Brisbane, and not three weeks ago after we lost, again, to a real contender in Geelong.

I think we're the weakest link in the top 4 presently, except for maybe GWS who can be a little flakey as well.

Remember the Crows got to that spot on the back of good wins against other top 8 teams, even better wins against non-top 8 teams and some close losses to top 8 teams.

So while the Brisbane win helped, the other games have all contributed to the current position. 1 good win doesn't over-rule the other results from the season.

It would be good if we could figure out how to beat Geelong though. Either that, or another team kindly knocks them off before we have to face them in the finals. M'kay. Thx.

 

[1990crow]

The problem with that analysis is that you're saying that now, after we shot into "contention" on the back of a win against Brisbane, and not three weeks ago after we lost, again, to a real contender in Geelong.

I think we're the weakest link in the top 4 presently, except for maybe GWS who can be a little flakey as well.

Hopefully we play gws in a qualifying final.
Also why is it called qualifying? Quarter would make more sense and preliminary? Should be called semi.

 

[SJ]

Hopefully we play gws in a qualifying final.
Also why is it called qualifying? Quarter would make more sense and preliminary? Should be called semi.

Qualify for the preliminary.

 

[1990crow]

Qualify for the preliminary.

Or qualify for the semi in place of semi.

 

[beert]

Can I ask about the flagpole? Why are there 10 teams who are still being given some (even a miniscule) premiership chance? Shouldn't those 10 teams all be equally at rock bottom of the flagpole?

The flagpole doesn't exactly measure the chance of winning the premiership this year. (That would be a Tower of Premiership Power).

It's more helpful to think of it as which teams are in premiership form. So even though 10 teams can't win it, the flagpole shows how much like a premiership team they are playing.

 

[Final Siren]

5/6 (83.33%) - prelim or gf
3/6 (50%) - gf
2/6 (33.33%) - gf winner

History looks alright for the far right according to squiggle then.

That's a generous interpretation because the two premiers there (West Coast 1994 and Collingwood 1990) were also both far ahead of all their rivals in overall terms (ATTACK + DEFENCE). They were defensive specialists but they were also just plain better than everyone else.

When defensive specialists have had to contend with teams around the same level in terms of overall strength, they haven't done very well. The only flags are Sydney's from 2005 and 2012, while there are many examples of strong defensive specialists who failed to go all the way (from this century: Sydney 2015, Sydney 2014, Fremantle 2013, Collingwood 2011, St Kilda 2010, St Kilda 2009, Sydney 2006, Adelaide 2005, Sydney 2004, Carlton 2001).

Related posts:

Attacking sides wins flags more often.

Premiers have #1 attacks more commonly than #1 defences.

 

[cryptor]

That's a generous interpretation because the two premiers there (West Coast 1994 and Collingwood 1990) were also both far ahead of all their rivals in overall terms (ATTACK + DEFENCE). They were defensive specialists but they were also just plain better than everyone else.

When defensive specialists have had to contend with teams around the same level in terms of overall strength, they haven't done very well. The only flags are Sydney's from 2005 and 2012, while there are many examples of strong defensive specialists who failed to go all the way (from this century: Sydney 2015, Sydney 2014, Fremantle 2013, Collingwood 2011, St Kilda 2010, St Kilda 2009, Sydney 2006, Adelaide 2005, Sydney 2004, Carlton 2001).

Related posts:

Attacking sides wins flags more often.

Premiers have #1 attacks more commonly than #1 defences.

And both 05 and 12 could have easily gone the other way.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

The problem with that analysis is that you're saying that now, after we shot into "contention" on the back of a win against Brisbane, and not three weeks ago after we lost, again, to a real contender in Geelong.

I think we're the weakest link in the top 4 presently, except for maybe GWS who can be a little flakey as well.

I think the Crows will win the flag. Got a very strong feeling.

 

[Sid Ruckle]

That's a generous interpretation because the two premiers there (West Coast 1994 and Collingwood 1990) were also both far ahead of all their rivals in overall terms (ATTACK + DEFENCE). They were defensive specialists but they were also just plain better than everyone else.

When defensive specialists have had to contend with teams around the same level in terms of overall strength, they haven't done very well. The only flags are Sydney's from 2005 and 2012, while there are many examples of strong defensive specialists who failed to go all the way (from this century: Sydney 2015, Sydney 2014, Fremantle 2013, Collingwood 2011, St Kilda 2010, St Kilda 2009, Sydney 2006, Adelaide 2005, Sydney 2004, Carlton 2001).

Related posts:

Attacking sides wins flags more often.

Premiers have #1 attacks more commonly than #1 defences.

Fair point, was to lazy to get the data myself and used what was provided.

Is there any data that indicates the optimal zone for premierships, ala a hot spot of sorts?

 

[Hobbes]

Fair point, was to lazy to get the data myself and used what was provided.

Is there any data that indicates the optimal zone for premierships, ala a hot spot of sorts?

Just a look at the squiggle gives the squiggle locations of past premiers in the background.

 

[Hobbes]

I think the Crows will win the flag. Got a very strong feeling.

I hope you're right. Our form against Geelong is a bit marginal though. At least we won't have to return to Kardinia Park this year.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I hope you're right. Our form against Geelong is a bit marginal though. At least we won't have to return to Kardinia Park this year.

I don't think you will play us in the finals. If you did you might struggle but I don't think if will come to that.

 

[Sid Ruckle]

Just a look at the squiggle gives the squiggle locations of past premiers in the background.

Cheers,

I was wondering if something more specific had been done, such as working out the average of all the cups over say the last 30 years to work out the ideal

 

[GreyCrow]

Cheers,

I was wondering if something more specific had been done, such as working out the average of all the cups over say the last 30 years to work out the ideal

Many different models

The 2 consistent look to be scoring 100 points or more on average while keeping your opposition to 86 points. Means you have an attack capable of scoring 16 goals and a defence that keeps the other side to 14 goals

The other one that seems to be consistent ( one or two variations) is the 2 sides with high % seem to contend. This plays into the above model. The more you score and the more you defend the more balanced you are to contend

 

[Final Siren]

Cheers,

I was wondering if something more specific had been done, such as working out the average of all the cups over say the last 30 years to work out the ideal

That would ignore opposition, though. What matters more than being in a particular spot is being better positioned than your rivals.

It's rare for a premier to finish in a worse spot on the chart than any rival (although it does happen, eg 2008).

 

[Membling]

Having an aggregated "sweet spot" using an amalgamated average of all the premiers would be interesting.

Would be the premiership point.

Edit: what sid said. And FS replied to.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Just let the crows win the flag guys... Its the perfect plot for the first big budget AFL cinema blockbuster ever!

 

[The Punter]

Who knows what will happen this year with the week off before finals


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Final Siren]

Having an aggregated "sweet spot" using an amalgamated average of all the premiers would be interesting.

Would be the premiership point.

Edit: what sid said. And FS replied to.

OK, bearing in mind this is NOT the ideal point, as discussed above, but just a centre of mass of premiers, it's at 74.0/69.4, which is right here:

 

[Final Siren]

And here is the last 20 years of squiggle finishes, with 2016's teams highlighted in green.

Sydney really are one of the hardest teams to score against in the last 20 years, and Brisbane one of the easiest.

Essendon are close to "worse than Fitzroy" territory.

​

Essendon and Brisbane are also in worse positions than every team to ever receive a Priority Pick. But they're in better positions than three teams that didn't: GWS 2012/13 and Melbourne 2013.

 

[GreyCrow]

Looks like the Crows are aiming for the carpark between Brisbane 2001,02 Geelong 2007 and Hawthorn 2014

OK, bearing in mind this is NOT the ideal point, as discussed above, but just a centre of mass of premiers, it's at 74.0/69.4, which is right here:

​

Hmmph wrong car park.

 

[BEaston]

And here is the last 20 years of squiggle finishes, with 2016's teams highlighted in green.

Sydney really are one of the hardest teams to score against in the last 20 years, and Brisbane one of the easiest.

Essendon are close to "worse than Fitzroy" territory.

​

Essendon and Brisbane are also in worse positions than every team to ever receive a Priority Pick. But they're in better positions than three teams that didn't: GWS 2012/13 and Melbourne 2013.

Interesting that Dogs teams always seem to be above the diagonal. This year looks to be our best year defensively by a mile.