2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

[james Dean]

I think some people are just seeing Trump in a debate for the first time. He was not that different to how he was in the GOP debates. Just dribbled shit until his time ran out

 

[VineyIsLORD]

You can always rely on 4chan to fudge online polls to make their man Trump look more convincing than his actual debate performance. I wish Justin Bieber did perform in North Korea and never came back...

I'd have thought after Trump made fun of 400 pound losers living in their bedroom that the 4chan and alt-right crowd would have gone off him a bit.

 

[Cooldude]

Hang on, are people seriously suggesting that most people think that Trump won the debate?

His most ardent apologists/supporters in this thread and some people who know how to use bots and scripts for public online polls

The rest of the world live in actual reality which has shown to be very unfair to Trump

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Didn't address the sackings and turnover of staff which is what my post was about.

Anyone with any talent would have bailed after he won the nomination.

Getting Trump the nomination is a career making effort for a young adviser.

Watching him burn what's left of the right wing movement in the United States is a career killer.

 

[Play by Numbers]

View attachment 293639

So?

4chan and the Russian bot armies are working overdrive. Anon are masters at gaming a poll. Early on, whenever an online poll was in Clintons favor the troops were rallied. Within minutes you were seeing vote figures double and polls skewing a single way.

Most votes for debates are usually within a short period of the poll going up, they also usually regress towards an expected mean. When a poll that has been up for hours suddenly triples in numbers and increasingly moves towards one candidate, it follows that gaming is occurring.

It's hillarious because people are discussing doing it, then freaking and deleting posts.

 

[Play by Numbers]

Hang on, hang on, hang on, Evan, Evan, Evan, Evan, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, fact-check that for me please on the fly!

Ah, yes they do, haha, yes, there are at least seven polls that are being in some way used to show that Trump won the debate and that, in some cases, he won by a lot.

Okie doke!

These aren't actual polls though and they are very transparently being messed with.

There has been a couple of snap scientific polls, and assessments using metrics like stock prices, that show a clear Clinton victory.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I had fears Trump could potentially get up and win the Presidency. And I can't stand Clinton or the establishment she represents, for the record.

But after today she's as sure a thing that has ever existed.

If only it were Sanders instead... but at least his candidacy proves that the real battleground in modern politics is between the socialist left and the capitalist progressives. The right isn't making a comeback, it is making a death rattle.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Still laughing at how bad trump was. Expect him to try and skip either both remaining debates or at least the last one after getting hammered in the next one.

I look forward to seeing his twitter account when he wakes up tomorrow and starts lashing out.

 

[Cooldude]

I had fears Trump could potentially get up and win the Presidency. And I can't stand Clinton or the establishment she represents, for the record.

But after today she's as sure a thing that has ever existed.

If only it were Sanders instead... but at least his candidacy proves that the real battleground in modern politics is between the socialist left and the capitalist progressives. The right isn't making a comeback, it is making a death rattle.

I dunno, whilst I wanna agree with you, I think far right politics and nationalistic rhetoric is rising everywhere around the world nowadays, particularly in Europe. Trump could still get up but I think if defeated it'd make the Republicans shift back to the left

I think far right politics right now is making a very strong last minute fierce struggle, in some places it has succeeded, let's see if the US is one of them

 

[bad setanta]

Still laughing at how bad trump was. Expect him to try and skip either both remaining debates or at least the last one after getting hammered in the next one.

I look forward to seeing his twitter account when he wakes up tomorrow and starts lashing out.

I'm still laughing at all the liberals in here, so predictable I'm looking forward to your tears when he wins.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I dunno, whilst I wanna agree with you, I think far right politics and nationalistic rhetoric is rising everywhere around the world nowadays, particularly in Europe. Trump could still get up but I think if defeated it'd make the Republicans shift back to the left

I think far right politics right now is making a very strong last minute fierce struggle, in some places it has succeeded, let's see if the US is one of them

Far right politics is making a last gasp in the west while the boomers are still around - what they really want is a return to the socialist economy their parents handed them, but they are still brainwashed against anything mildly socialist/communist, so they gravitate to the far right monsters who use some left wing rhetoric whilst being actively fascist. Like somebody else we might remember from Germany back in the day.

The youth are massively socialist, and once the demographics reach the tipping point due to attrition we'll be fine.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I'm still laughing at all the liberals in here, so predictable I'm looking forward to your tears when he wins.

Do you really think he'll win?

I'm not shocked if he does but he is looking like the worst candidate in history at this point as far as his actual chance of getting elected goes.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

When a candidate who is asking to be elected to a position that will pay him millions in taxpayer dollars says the words "I didn't pay my taxes. That makes me smart" you can all but guarantee he's boned.

 

[Godchin]

I loved the "here Hillary, have this quote and use it to shit on Donald" finish to the debate. Very professional.

Outside of the first 20 minutes or so, it was Hillary's night.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Just watch the back and forth here for about ten minutes starting from the 1hr 27min mark.



He is so far out of his depth against her it isn't funny. He's an hysterical con artist who has gotten in well over his head.

She's a career politician and lawyer. He's a spoiled rich kid.

This debate literally only exists to make people wonder how badly Sanders would have belted Trump.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

And if he does, at least you can be sure that he'll take the damn oil *sniff*

Pretty amusing his supporters say he'll shut down the American empire given he says shit like that.

 

[Godchin]

literally

Please stop posting.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Please stop posting.

Feeling a bit sore?

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I loved the "here Hillary, have this quote and use it to shit on Donald" finish to the debate. Very professional.

Outside of the first 20 minutes or so, it was Hillary's night.

Its not a matter of 'nights'.

Its a matter of a highly capable person shitting on a spoiled deadshit.

Just like many of the alt-right think they one day too will get the girl, Trump supporters seem to believe that given enough changes he will eventually outfox the Hillary machine.

And just like the alt-rights eternal battle with loneliness, its never going to go his way. He is out of his depth in a debate with anyone capable.

 

[Cooldude]

Far right politics is making a last gasp in the west while the boomers are still around - what they really want is a return to the socialist economy their parents handed them, but they are still brainwashed against anything mildly socialist/communist, so they gravitate to the far right monsters who use some left wing rhetoric whilst being actively fascist. Like somebody else we might remember from Germany back in the day.

The youth are massively socialist, and once the demographics reach the tipping point due to attrition we'll be fine.

I think you're right, don't think far right politics work in places like US and Aus anymore. In Europe though it's becoming a problem, the Brexit showed that.

I'd argue China is shifting further right and has some very disturbing nationalist rhetoric under Xi, so I don't think it's completely dead yet, particularly with China growing his propaganda machine overseas. The world needs a strong US to counteract it

 

[VineyIsLORD]

I think you're right, don't think far right politics work in places like US and Aus anymore. In Europe though it's becoming a problem, the Brexit showed that.

I'd argue China is shifting further right and has some very disturbing nationalist rhetoric under Xi, so I don't think it's completely dead yet, particularly with China growing his propaganda machine overseas. The world needs a strong US to counteract it

I'd mark China down as one of the most right wing on earth already, and agree they are veering even further that way.

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

Looks like much of the alt right is taking time away from stalking the skinnydipping teenagers by the old theme park to spam online polls.

 

[TheMightyEagles]

As a pundit, Nate is left-leaning but I trust his impartiality when it comes to polling and statistics. That is ominous. He was spot on with his commentary on the RNC and DNC bounces as well.

From my perspective after watching the debate, I didn't see a bloodbath. Clinton's performance was solid and polished and, in terms of the debate itself and devoid of the context of the wider presidential race, she did win. But I thought Trump managed to stay on message, obviously not to the extent of his recent rallies with the aid of a teleprompter, but it was much better than his unscripted efforts earlier in his campaign. He also appeared restrained and thoughtful in his answers (by Trump's standards), which would have fulfilled one of his main goals to appear presidential, given Hillary's campaign until now has focused on his alleged lack of fitness for office. I assume the strong anti-Trump reaction is because, as james Dean pointed out earlier, a lot of people haven't really seen Trump in action until now. So it will be interesting to see whether that holds true for a meaningful section of the American audience - if so, then a lot of the pre-debate punditry discussions about how Trump and Hillary are being graded on different criteria may have been inaccurate. In fact, Trump may have always been headed for a post-debate poll drop, given his delivery style and lack of debating experience, if some viewers were going to judge him purely on his debate performance.

People have noted that Trump was defensive throughout much of the debate. A lot of that had to do with the questions asked though - here is a compiled list: http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=55558. (Ignore the wider article which is biased towards Trump, but they did put together the list of questions which I am yet to find on other websites.) Most of them focused on Trump's fitness for office, rather than policy differences or any of the scandals surrounding Hillary, which have made her one of the least popular candidates in US history. I thought Trump handled the questions reasonably well, some better than others, but it gave him the chance to at least answer to some of the assertions made by the Clinton campaign and frankly quite partisan "fact checkers". Again, though, that analysis relies on the audience viewing the debate in the context of the wider presidential campaign and therefore having previously been exposed to these anti-Trump arguments.

That said, all of what I said above is opinion. Much has been made about this presidential campaign being different to others, but the statistics are always the most objective and reliable measure and they don't look good for Trump at this point.

TL;DR - Hillary won the debate in isolation but, in the context of the wider presidential campaign, Trump achieved what he needed to achieve. The question is whether American voters viewed the debate through the prism of that context. Statistics from previous debates suggest that a meaningful number of people will form their views solely on the debate itself, in which case the pundits and Trump campaign may have been incorrect in their view that Trump simply needed to appear presidential on the debate stage to maintain momentum in the polls.

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

I'm still laughing at all the liberals in here, so predictable I'm looking forward to your tears when he wins.

Remember when you said neo-nazis vote for him for non-racist reasons?

We all had a good laugh.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Hillary called him a racist to his face. His excuse was that everyone was doing it and he let blacks into one of his clubs. Good work there Donald, good work.