2016 AFL - Grand Final

[mookieb]

So I was looking at the teams side by side as I do and was overcome with how ordinary this Western Bulldogs side is. A spine of Hamling (who), Morris (solid), Bont (gun), Cordy (yikes) Boyd (double yikes) and Roughead (meh) in the ruck. If they were playing the Hawks in the last couple of years their equivalent would be Lake, Gibson, Mitchell, Gunston, Roughead and McEvoy. WB has two AA players (Boyd and Bont) on the bench and Sydney has five (four starting). They essentially have one superstar with the next most exciting player Stringer having had a poor year and delivered little. Their bench is young and unproven. They finished 7th with an poor record against top 8 teams for a reason.

Arguably this a significantly weakened WB team with Adams, Murphy, Redpath, Crameri and Wallis missing.

They have 0 players with GF experience and might well be starting to feel the pressure rather than playing the underdog card as the whole of Australia is behind them. If they did lose it wouldn't be a disaster given their best years should be in the future.

The above doesn't reflect their unbelievable form, spirit, coaching and their game style that has translated fantastically into the finals. But on paper this is a pretty average team imo.

 

[Lensen]

True but also nankervis Jones x.richards etc

 

[FallingLiefs]

So I was looking at the teams side by side as I do and was overcome with how ordinary this Western Bulldogs side is. A spine of Hamling (who), Morris (solid), Bont (gun), Cordy (yikes) Boyd (double yikes) and Roughead (meh) in the ruck. If they were playing the Hawks in the last couple of years their equivalent would be Lake, Gibson, Mitchell, Gunston, Roughead and McEvoy. WB has two AA players (Boyd and Bont) on the bench and Sydney has five (four starting). They essentially have one superstar with the next most exciting player Stringer having had a poor year and delivered little. Their bench is young and unproven. They finished 7th with an poor record against top 8 teams for a reason.

Arguably this a significantly weakened WB team with Adams, Murphy, Redpath, Crameri and Wallis missing.

They have 0 players with GF experience and might well be starting to feel the pressure rather than playing the underdog card as the whole of Australia is behind them. If they did lose it wouldn't be a disaster given their best years should be in the future.

The above doesn't reflect their unbelievable form, spirit, coaching and their game style that has translated fantastically into the finals. But on paper this is a pretty average team imo.

it's competition wide, i did this last week Geelong were the same and I still feel GWS was the strongest 22. i think it's just a fact that there were no real high quality 22's this year, maybe it has something to do with the mass concessions 3-5 years ago.

 

[Spads]

And they were only 2 games behind Sydney, even though they finished 7th. 15-7 record any other year is usually good enough for 5th position too.

 

[mookieb]

True but also nankervis Jones x.richards etc

Yes Sydney is also weaker than in it's heyday. Plenty of games where Laidler, Jones and X, Richards were sitting in the emergencies list in past years. They actually have quite a bit of youth and have been drained a bit of experience with the AFL ban on trading.

Interestingly Suckling couldn't get a game - he would have been the only player with GF experience in that side. Staggered he wasn't included when you consider he was best 22 with the Hawks with one of the best teams of all time. If a few of their young players get the "deer in the headlights" look this will be a terrible exclusion.

 

[zannnn]

Every team that Sydney lost to in the home and away (Hawks, Adel, GWS, Rich), the Dogs have beat this year - plus the Dogs themselves.

Sydney has the best team on paper but the Dogs definitely have what it takes. $2.50 is overs and I'll be backing Dogs H2H.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Tom Papley 3 or more goals @6.50 seems like value.

 

[free at last]

1u swans -11.5.....Swans midfield + buddy will be the difference IMO.

GL everyone!

 

[Cosmogramma]

1.5U Lachie Hunter ~ Most Disposals H2H v Jake Lloyd @2.40 = $360

Having a dip at this because the odds should be evens at 1.90, Lloyd in slightly better form over the finals, but Hunter averages more this season.

 

[Atavistic]

Not putting much on today. Here are my bets:

1U Bullies win @2.45.
0.25U on Bont and Parker for NS.
0.25U on Dickson and C Smith for FGS.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Clay Smith is a bit of value at sportsbet 6.00 more behinds than goals..no one else's is that good odds for behinds..never know if he missed one early he may miss a few more

 

[yamahamoto]

Heart says Bulldogs head says Sydney. I think Sydney line is a solid bet.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

1.5U Lachie Hunter ~ Most Disposals H2H v Jake Lloyd @2.40 = $360

Having a dip at this because the odds should be evens at 1.90, Lloyd in slightly better form over the finals, but Hunter averages more this season.

Where is this?

 

[benno_]

Tom Papley 3 or more goals @6.50 seems like value.

with bet365 he's @8.50 for 3+ and @3 for 2+

he's also @1.72 for under 1.5 goals with SB for those wanting to have a bit of a risk free shot or arb at 2+ goals

 

[SterlingArcher]

So I was looking at the teams side by side as I do and was overcome with how ordinary this Western Bulldogs side is. A spine of Hamling (who), Morris (solid), Bont (gun), Cordy (yikes) Boyd (double yikes) and Roughead (meh) in the ruck. If they were playing the Hawks in the last couple of years their equivalent would be Lake, Gibson, Mitchell, Gunston, Roughead and McEvoy. WB has two AA players (Boyd and Bont) on the bench and Sydney has five (four starting). They essentially have one superstar with the next most exciting player Stringer having had a poor year and delivered little. Their bench is young and unproven. They finished 7th with an poor record against top 8 teams for a reason.

Arguably this a significantly weakened WB team with Adams, Murphy, Redpath, Crameri and Wallis missing.

They have 0 players with GF experience and might well be starting to feel the pressure rather than playing the underdog card as the whole of Australia is behind them. If they did lose it wouldn't be a disaster given their best years should be in the future.

The above doesn't reflect their unbelievable form, spirit, coaching and their game style that has translated fantastically into the finals. But on paper this is a pretty average team imo.

I think even the most ardent Dogs fan would have to accept their forward line is awful but it's their midfield that is why they are playing today. A bunch of stars but their 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th players (guys like Picken, Dunkley, Daniel) just keep performing this finals series. Very underrated. Makes up for their forward line and their defence is adequate (Morris, Wood, Boyd, Johannisen 4 very good defenders, Hamling/Roberts will get Tippett and X.Richards, Tippett might make an impact but they can adequately cover Richards). It's solid. Hamling/Roberts no worse than Laidler.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Norm Smith
$30 on Buddy $8.50
$20 on Heeney $15

 

[lions_den]

Syd quarter time line is the bet here.

 

[Bucking Beads]

with bet365 he's @8.50 for 3+ and @3 for 2+

he's also @1.72 for under 1.5 goals with SB for those wanting to have a bit of a risk free shot or arb at 2+ goals

Not bad value. Got him @$10 for first Swans goal too.

 

[Lensen]

If you're gonna back Papley 2+ at $3 (and I am) mad not to bet Rohan at same odds

 

[Cosmogramma]

Can someone pls tell me what exact market to bet on for the crownbet promotion for first goal scorer, might be blindingly obvious but I can figure it out, do I just do team first goal scorers?

 

[sledbomber]

Can someone pls tell me what exact market to bet on for the crownbet promotion for first goal scorer, might be blindingly obvious but I can figure it out, do I just do team first goal scorers?

You will find the 1st goal scorer market the promo refers to can be found in the main market section rather than goal scorer markets section

 

[cznsnowy91]

Really liking Sydney's side today. Their midfield, forward line and overall experience should hopefully be too much for the dogs. Taking advantage of alot of cool promotions and loading up on Sydney so hopefully they get home! Pumped for the game

Currently have:
$50 Sydney WIN at $2 Ladbrokes promotion
$200 Sydney -10.5 (Ladbrokes are offering $2 lines and also an additional point over most other bookies who have the line at -11.5)
$50 Sydney WIN with sportsbet (Double winnings as a bonus bet if win)
$50 Sydney WIN with Crownbet (Get $50 free bet if your team loses).
$50 Lance Franklin first goal scorer at $6 ($50 free bet if not first but scores during the game)

 

[mookieb]

with bet365 he's @8.50 for 3+ and @3 for 2+

he's also @1.72 for under 1.5 goals with SB for those wanting to have a bit of a risk free shot or arb at 2+ goals

Where is the under 1.5 with SB? Can't seem to find it.

 

[benji21]

Where is the under 1.5 with SB? Can't seem to find it.

Australian Rules. Player Exotics

 

[Cosmogramma]

Really liking Sydney's side today. Their midfield, forward line and overall experience should hopefully be too much for the dogs. Taking advantage of alot of cool promotions and loading up on Sydney so hopefully they get home! Pumped for the game

Currently have:
$50 Sydney WIN at $2 Ladbrokes promotion
$200 Sydney -10.5 (Ladbrokes are offering $2 lines and also an additional point over most other bookies who have the line at -11.5)
$50 Sydney WIN with sportsbet (Double winnings as a bonus bet if win)
$50 Sydney WIN with Crownbet (Get $50 free bet if your team loses).
$50 Lance Franklin first goal scorer at $6 ($50 free bet if not first but scores during the game)

With crownbet, are you sure the $50 dollar bonus if Sydney lose is a bonus bet, or is it just those dodgy crown points?