Analysis Best SOS recruiting performance? 2015, 2016, 2017 or 2018 Draftees?

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Prince Charles will end becoming the best player we have drafted since it was introduced in 1986.

Its hard to see (with all due respect to the 2016 lads) that we could have a more dynamic due than Weiters and Curnow, anytime, anywhere.

I reckon Jack could very easily end up the best of the bunch.

 

[ferrisb]

Of course it's too early to tell, but I'll have a crack.

I think there's two parts to it;

a) what you do to get the draft picks/players
b) what you do with the picks.

You can judge part A earlier. Part B takes longer to ascertain success/failure.

Part A

2015 the clear winner. I was blown away by the wheeling and dealing last year. We maxed value for our outs, picked up our ins cheaply and navigated clever/complex trades. Trade period was the whole package.

2016 was different. More a case of damage control, trying to not get reamed on the Gibbs & Tuohy trades. Not as glamorous, but equally as important.

Sometimes you need to win, sometimes you need to not lose (not the same thing). I think SOS has shown he can do both sides (small sample size so far).

Part B

Can only judge 2015, and even then only partly. Weiters is a bona fine star. Curnow has shown glimpses, Jack shown footy smarts. I think those three make it at a minimum. Cuningham did some good things, but is still an unknown to me. Mackay pot luck at this stage.

2016, I have high hopes for Sammy, fisher is 50/50 and the rest are speculative. Not a knock on them, but I see recruitment as a game of numbers/probability. Of course we didn't have the plethora high picks this year, so it's not a fair fight.

CONCLUSION

Trading

2015 & 2016 = 2 home runs

Recruitment

2015 very promising, could be spectacular.

2016 too early to tell

 

[Jeremias]

I think we can be very pleased with both drafts.

2015 looks to have been very strong for us but it is too early for any comparisons to be made.

 

[Jabba73]

are we gws yet?

Only if we change our colours and club song to shit ones.

 

[ferrisb]

I was going to reply 'I'd happily accept some orange and charcoal on our jumper in exchange for success'.

But then I thought about it, and I wouldn't. Just wouldn't be right not seeing the boys in the navy blue.

Even the m&ms light blue feels like an abomination, after all these years.

 

[thylacine60]

Simmo would like a word........

 

[therubbernub]

Simmo would like a word........

Nasty

 

[GapInIkonPark]

B

Too early to start a thread on which one of the Judd twins will wear the number 5?

Before that, how about Ben No.2 and Tom No.3 ?

 

[GapInIkonPark]

How many games have Menzel and Yarran played since leaving Carlton? Henderson was fair at Geelong and was poor in the final after returning from injury (was surprised Geelong rushed him back in) and Bell was solid for Brisbane. And SOS was still wheeling and dealing with the Suns after Everitt and we were after Tomlinson.
The key is our picks improved our list including the GWS 4, Wright, and although it may not work out you can understand why we recruited Gorringe.
He held firm on Gibbs, such an important message and something Rogers (and whoever else if you accept Harker's view that Rogers was rendered impotent by the Club) simply would not have done. Took the heat out of the Marchbank and Pickett trade by de-linking it from the Gibbs outcome by ... telling Geelong it could do something that the highly rated Geelong recruiting team did not know it could do (apply to AFL for permission to trade #1 pick for third year in a row).
So 2015 draft we have 5 players we all think should be best 22 in Season 2017. Plowman and Wright are also in best 22, Phillips is pushing Kreuzer for #1 ruck spot (I think he will surpass Kreuzer in 2017) and Sumner and Lamb are upgrades on several players that have left.
Perhaps the 6 in '16 won't all be best 22 in Season 2018, however I think it's fair to say we simply cannot fault SOS' choices ... SPS has the class we sorely need and I think will thrive in an AFL environment, Fisher works really hard, Macreadie has the tools and I suspect will develop at NBs in 2017, Geelong reportedly wanted Polson, Williamson I think is a brilliant pick given his athleticism (and did well in combine kicking test too I think it was) and is a bottom age player, and Kerr again has the tools and I suspect will develop at NBs in 2017 ... so different trade scenarios and different draft hands, but both years of recruiting are very positive.
I do not cringe with SOS steering the ship, I just enjoy reading about the outcomes of a master at his craft. I am glad he works for us.

 

[thylacine60]

just a great post, giip

 

[footyfan1978]

I was going to reply 'I'd happily accept some orange and charcoal on our jumper in exchange for success'.

But then I thought about it, and I wouldn't. Just wouldn't be right not seeing the boys in the navy blue.

Even the m&ms light blue feels like an abomination, after all these years.

If was an abomination on the bloody day it happened. Mick McGuane first game I believe too, appropriate for how far off track our club was going under Elliott.

 

[La Dispute]

We did well getting Pick 20-odd for Bell too. As well liked as he was, he had major question marks over his kicking skills, awareness and speed and had far and away his best year in 2015. I'd be surprised to see him in a list in three years with Brisbane's influx of young talent - particularly flankers.

Turned those two early pick 20's into CCurnow = happy days.

 

[Jimmae]

We did well getting Pick 20-odd for Bell too. As well liked as he was, he had major question marks over his kicking skills, awareness and speed and had far and away his best year in 2015. I'd be surprised to see him in a list in three years with Brisbane's influx of young talent - particularly flankers.

Turned those two early pick 20's into CCurnow = happy days.

Gave up pick 40 to get it though. Net return was effectively pick 40.

You'd think we'd have gotten a smidge more if he didn't mind what state he wound up in.

 

[La Dispute]

Gave up pick 40 to get it though. Net return was effectively pick 40.

You'd think we'd have gotten a smidge more if he didn't mind what state he wound up in.

Got back Pick 60. By and large I think we did well to get a bit of value for a bloke who was unlikely to back up the kind of form he gave us in 2015.

 

[Jimmae]

Got back Pick 60. By and large I think we did well to get a bit of value for a bloke who was unlikely to back up the kind of form he gave us in 2015.

Just checked: we gave up pick 60, so it's even worse!

He is an athletic beast with an up and under style of kicking that suited set shots and shots on the run. Not the smartest footballer, but didn't need to be at 190/95. He's gone backwards at Brisbane, however.

Seems as though we can only dream of getting such value for guys like White and Rowe.

EDIT: no

 

[La Dispute]

Just checked: we gave up pick 60, so it's even worse!

He is an athletic beast with an up and under style of kicking that suited set shots and shots on the run. Not the smartest footballer, but didn't need to be at 190/95. He's gone backwards at Brisbane, however.

Seems as though we can only dream of getting such value for guys like White and Rowe.

Where did we send Pick 60? I thought it was traded to us from Brisbane.

He would have been decent for a few years as we rebuilt but we managed to use the pick to acquire some elite young talent. You can understand from Brisbane's perspective, why they targeted him though.

 

[TheRedPill]

Hey, would anyone else like to point out it's too early to definitively rate SOS' performance?

Of course it is. But we're still able to speculate - it's interesting discussion, both in terms of formulating your own analysis and reading that of others.

As was implied, this is a Carlton forum, it's the off-season and we've just completed the trade & draft period. What else are we going to talk about? We're all nuffies, and we're (mostly) free from punishment if our future prognostications don't come to fruition (Apologies for the rant, just a pet hate)

Anyway, I think SOS did exceptionally well across all stages, but I can't get over last year's draft as an absolute standout. Yes, we had early picks (which SOS himself procured, mind you), but many early picks fail, and we were in a genuine "can't afford to miss" situation - it was a crucial building block for the new Bolton era and a foundational draft.

We basically nailed all picks, at least on exposed form. Weitering has a chance to be a transcendent CHB and even more impressively, has the relentless, professional approach which will rub off on other players, define our culture and ultimately deliver flags. Silvagni & Curnow have shown enough early to suggest they are going to be jets (both reasonably tall & had their setbacks, so it was a pleasant surprise to see them perform so well in their debut season). Cuningham overcame some injury issues to finish the season well, and looks to have the tools required to become a long-term player. The buzz from the club around Harry McKay meanwhile is deafening. Make no mistake, this kid is a player. Last but not least... don't write off Glass-McCasker. Looks like a very astute rookie selection. Big frame, athletic, and there's confidence he will make it & add to our KPD riches (touch wood - but wow does it feel odd to type those words with the painful memories of Livingston & Thornton still seared into my mind.)

Above all, on the theme of a foundational draft - the real clincher for me is the attitude they've brought to the club. You need a competitive and confident attitude to form a winning culture. Any successful club has it. This crop has it in spades. Hopefully they continue to develop because I suspect they will form the core of side for the next 10+ years. Fingers crossed!

 

[Jimmae]

Where did we send Pick 60? I thought it was traded to us from Brisbane.

He would have been decent for a few years as we rebuilt but we managed to use the pick to acquire some elite young talent. You can understand from Brisbane's perspective, why they targeted him though.

Sorry! You were correct the first time; will edit my post to reflect

 

[HARKER]

Hey, would anyone else like to point out it's too early to definitively rate SOS' performance?

Of course it is. But we're still able to speculate - it's interesting discussion, both in terms of formulating your own analysis and reading that of others.

As was implied, this is a Carlton forum, it's the off-season and we've just completed the trade & draft period. What else are we going to talk about? We're all nuffies, and we're (mostly) free from punishment if our future prognostications don't come to fruition (Apologies for the rant, just a pet hate)

Anyway, I think SOS did exceptionally well across all stages, but I can't get over last year's draft as an absolute standout. Yes, we had early picks (which SOS himself procured, mind you), but many early picks fail, and we were in a genuine "can't afford to miss" situation - it was a crucial building block for the new Bolton era and a foundational draft.

We basically nailed all picks, at least on exposed form. Weitering has a chance to be a transcendent CHB and even more impressively, has the relentless, professional approach which will rub off on other players, define our culture and ultimately deliver flags. Silvagni & Curnow have shown enough early to suggest they are going to be jets (both reasonably tall & had their setbacks, so it was a pleasant surprise to see them perform so well in their debut season). Cuningham overcame some injury issues to finish the season well, and looks to have the tools required to become a long-term player. The buzz from the club around Harry McKay meanwhile is deafening. Make no mistake, this kid is a player. Last but not least... don't write off Glass-McCasker. Looks like a very astute rookie selection. Big frame, athletic, and there's confidence he will make it & add to our KPD riches (touch wood - but wow does it feel odd to type those words with the painful memories of Livingston & Thornton still seared into my mind.)

Above all, on the theme of a foundational draft - the real clincher for me is the attitude they've brought to the club. You need a competitive and confident attitude to form a winning culture. Any successful club has it. This crop has it in spades. Hopefully they continue to develop because I suspect they will form the core of side for the next 10+ years. Fingers crossed!

Being the off-season, may I repeat myself.........please?

I was sceptical of Silvagni early on and I had my reasons, but the way he's worked through the trade periods tells me enough of his ambition and resolve.
Don't worry as much about whether McKay will make it or was there someone better than Cuningham at our pick #19, it's the work that was undertaken to put ourselves in a position of strength through the last two trade periods, that tells you a lot of what you need to know.

SOS now has his #1 man in Brodie by his side, who to a large degree will oversee the talent coming through, but SOS's role is much broader than just that and up to this point in time............he gets an A+ from me. Can't imagine us doing more and manufacturing as many options as we did, without him.

 

[therubbernub]

Do we know what Brodie has been recognized for? Was he responsible for any particular pick that a quayle or similar couldnt have picked? I just dont get what these guys do. The talent is served up on a platter for viewing during the various carnivals and now we have the allstars game as a finale. There isnt much talent that can slip under the radar anymore- unless you go off piste and find a roughy who turns out a diamond. Frought with danger as carlton supporters well know. So what is it that PB brings to the table?

 

[Red Bull]

Do we know what Brodie has been recognized for? Was he responsible for any particular pick that a quayle or similar couldnt have picked? I just dont get what these guys do. The talent is served up on a platter for viewing during the various carnivals and now we have the allstars game as a finale. There isnt much talent that can slip under the radar anymore- unless you go off piste and find a roughy who turns out a diamond. Frought with danger as carlton supporters well know. So what is it that PB brings to the table?

Well I'm pretty happy with his work this year
Polson and Williamson could be 2 real smokies ...

 

[HARKER]

Well I'm pretty happy with his work this year
Polson and Williamson could be 2 real smokies ...

 

[Jimmae]

Do we know what Brodie has been recognized for? Was he responsible for any particular pick that a quayle or similar couldnt have picked? I just dont get what these guys do. The talent is served up on a platter for viewing during the various carnivals and now we have the allstars game as a finale. There isnt much talent that can slip under the radar anymore- unless you go off piste and find a roughy who turns out a diamond. Frought with danger as carlton supporters well know. So what is it that PB brings to the table?

There's actually plenty that can be missed, and Brodie has a reputation for finding such types. Seems like he had a hand in Polson, and it's an oft-repeated story that he's the bloke that put forward Houlihan's name (we got him at something like #77) and Rockliff at the Lions (PSD pick).

Certainly you want most of your boots on the ground at the Champs, the state leagues (junior and senior) and the AIS/AFL/etc organised matches, but there's probably two levels of football below that worth scouring, plus at least one lower age bracket at the state and national levels.

Given SOS' background and beliefs, Brodie's presumably a guy who profiles a footballer's talents more in line with modern recruitment goals and football structures. Under SOS' structure at GWS, Brodie was the head scout.

 

[Weiterbot23]

A lot of non Carlton or GWS ppl are critical of SOS (and Brodie's) recruiting at GWS, but he had so many high picks, he had to fill positions, you can't just pick mids with every top 10.

Bruce in the late 20s and Lobb in the late 30s have been a couple of very good GWS pick ups from non premium picks, any others?


Re 2015 v 2016 it's very hard to call

2016 higher rated talent but gave up 4 good players...But reckon even so, getting Plowman in a trade will tip it to 2015

 

[La Dispute]

I've seen more GWS posters critical of SOS' recruiting, which is ironic. Set them up perfectly, found every loophole to give them access to top talent (with the AFL's assistance) and balanced their list needs so they had multiple young guns coming through in every position.

He had a few misses along the way: O'Rourke (average, but also injured), Plowman (big reach at 3, but will be a solid AFL player), Pickett (injured), Ahern (injured), Marchbank (injured regularly, young KP), McKenna (massive reach, but still on an AFL list) - ultimately though, all these players have reasons for not having played much.

GWS also have endless depth and an exclusive academy to keep talented players out of the team. I don't see 2012 and 2014 as an indictment on SOS' performance at all and we will know more about how good these players are in the coming years. Lucky for us, many will be in Blues colour(s).