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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

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Eight spots to fill, IMO, some of the above won't make it and, perhaps, LeBois may.

You have to remember that players Gibbs, ECurnow, Casboult, Wright and all being well Sheehan, still have up to 5 years left in them.
We don't have to fill all the gaps in the next 18 months.

We know the target range for recruits being ~20 - 23 years of age and plenty of time to get the right players over the next 3-4 trade periods.
That along with FA's and things can start coming together.

We'll need 25 ready to go quality players, but that doesn't come easy these days.
 
None of them are key position forwards, with the exception of Levi.

We have one other key position forward at the moment, and that's McKay. He is our great white hope. And at present he is a giant question mark and nothing more.

I'm not ribbing the kid here either. Key forwards take several years to come good. He was bottom aged and missed most of last year with a back complaint. Even if he goes on to be a 60 goal a year Key forward, I wouldn't expect to be seeing those kind of performances for another 5-6 years.

He might make it. He might not. But at present, all of our eggs are in the McKay basket.



I'm going to stop you there. Unless you have a crystal ball you can't know this. Kerr is almost certainly not going to make it (key forwards taken past the first round almost never do). Have a look at the other clubs if you don't believe me. Reiwoldt (both of them), Franklin, Kennedy, Patton, Cameron and Lynch are all first round draft picks. Hawkins was a father son, as was Daniher. Jesse Hogan was picked up in the mini draft, and Melbourne had to sell the world to get him. He would have gone top 3 otherwise. Brendan Fevola only slipped to pick 38 because of the d*ckhead factor that ultimately cost him his career.

Don't get me wrong; I want Kerr to make it. But if I am being objective, and playing the numbers, statistically speaking he's almost a certainty not to. A one in 100 chance at best. Not the sort of odds I want to gamble a future premiership on.

Ben Silvagni hasn't even been drafted (and may not be). It's impossible for us to know how good a player he's going to be, or even if he's even going to be a player at all, or even if we will draft him. If he makes it into the draft, there are several scenarios that might see us not match a bid for him.

We have two key forwards; Levi and McKay. Levi is 27 years old and has his own issues. He is likely to attract a free agency offer if his form continues this year, and is of limited use to us in the (2020 and onwards) premiership window. McKay is at present a giant question mark. You don't know if he will come on. He may, or he may not.



When Weitering fills out, he will play that FB role. Plowman, Marchbank and McCreadie can be our intercept markers. Docherty and Williamson to provide rebound.

That backline will be the best backline in the AFL in three years time, and by a considerable margin. No other side in the AFL has that much quality in the defensive back six.
Ha okay, some absurd assumptions.

You're rewriting rules on what constitutes a KPP, already writing Kerr off and not even read my view on Weiters etc.

I'll put it in the late night delirium folder.
 
None of them are key position forwards, with the exception of Levi.

We have one other key position forward at the moment, and that's McKay. He is our great white hope. And at present he is a giant question mark and nothing more.

I'm not ribbing the kid here either. Key forwards take several years to come good. He was bottom aged and missed most of last year with a back complaint. Even if he goes on to be a 60 goal a year Key forward, I wouldn't expect to be seeing those kind of performances for another 5-6 years.

He might make it. He might not. But at present, all of our eggs are in the McKay basket.



I'm going to stop you there. Unless you have a crystal ball you can't know this. Kerr is almost certainly not going to make it (key forwards taken past the first round almost never do). Have a look at the other clubs if you don't believe me. Reiwoldt (both of them), Franklin, Kennedy, Patton, Cameron and Lynch are all first round draft picks. Hawkins was a father son, as was Daniher. Jesse Hogan was picked up in the mini draft, and Melbourne had to sell the world to get him. He would have gone top 3 otherwise. Brendan Fevola only slipped to pick 38 because of the d*ckhead factor that ultimately cost him his career.

Don't get me wrong; I want Kerr to make it. But if I am being objective, and playing the numbers, statistically speaking he's almost a certainty not to. A one in 100 chance at best. Not the sort of odds I want to gamble a future premiership on.

Ben Silvagni hasn't even been drafted (and may not be). It's impossible for us to know how good a player he's going to be, or even if he's even going to be a player at all, or even if we will draft him. If he makes it into the draft, there are several scenarios that might see us not match a bid for him.

We have two key forwards; Levi and McKay. Levi is 27 years old and has his own issues. He is likely to attract a free agency offer if his form continues this year, and is of limited use to us in the (2020 and onwards) premiership window. McKay is at present a giant question mark. You don't know if he will come on. He may, or he may not.



When Weitering fills out, he will play that FB role. Plowman, Marchbank and McCreadie can be our intercept markers. Docherty and Williamson to provide rebound.

That backline will be the best backline in the AFL in three years time, and by a considerable margin. No other side in the AFL has that much quality in the defensive back six.
Your very pessimistic about our kf stocks or in your opinion lack thereof . Guess you dont trust the roadmap that sos is setting in that area . To pretty much write off a player (Kerr) because of his draft position is staggering. Bearing in mind that he was a father/son selection and clearly sos took the chance to take him later because no club was going to touch him because of his heritage . What we have seen of him this year looks very promising . And he clearly needs another preseason or 2 to tone his body and lose a bit of the puppy fat . Imo he's a great prospect and will get much better he's a genuinely smart player . BUT he's not playing senior football like Josh Schache who youve stated you would give up 2 draft picks for so that means Mckay and Kerr are no good . If Mckay was Schache and at another club and played a season of senior footy you'd be drooling over him .
 
When Weitering fills out, he will play that FB role. Plowman, Marchbank and McCreadie can be our intercept markers. Docherty and Williamson to provide rebound.

That backline will be the best backline in the AFL in three years time, and by a considerable margin. No other side in the AFL has that much quality in the defensive back six.

Don't know how you can say that with such surety.
If the back-line is formed and functioning, there's little else it has to do.

Weitering is playing injured and we've already seen what he can do for the forward line, that many other forwards can't do.....bring others into the game.
There will be forwards that can kick more goals, but you don't have to kick them all yourself if you're the class that makes those around you better.

Seems we're going to be having this same discussion for a long time yet.
 

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Malifice; I think most of us agree with ur analysis of finals prospects around 2020+.

I've read ur posts for the last two years and have agreed quietly about going hard at a rebuild...but now disagree with the sentiment to move on Kruezer and Casbault. That type of callousness is what Clarko has done to Hawthorn and a reason I'm enjoying their downfall. There is a stage you can be too cynical in your quest for success. Yes, moving on Kruezer and Cas can net us some value in their current form but it will also kill the club to some degree. If the club wholesale kill in-form players, players in-form will respond by leaving if a better contract is on offer. Loyalty can die pretty quickly.

Club loyalty and love are pre-2000 values i know....but a sense of fairness is still in play. Bruest will do what is best for him at Hawthorn, not what is best for Hawthorn and their supporters after being shopped. He will play within himself and not trust Clarko.

How can Bolton look the players in the eye and say perform and you get a game when Kreuzer gave it his all and they shopped him.

I think you are trying for a perfect list. 1 more perfect ruck, 1/2 more perfect mids and one more perfect KPF. No sides really have that perfect side. Our list is looking in great shape and hope they preserve Kreuzer and Casbault for the form they have showed us. I'm alright waiting for the draft, free agents and picking loose a player from another club to fill needs.

Sometimes even though you want; you have to forgo something to build something special. We have to continue on slowly and hope so we can keep the player's heads in the right frame of mind.

This means keeping players who perform well.
We done it to Tuohy last year and it hasn't seemed to affect us. The players aren't idiots they know we are going through a complete rebuild and that tough decisions will be made.
The players also know Kruez would have left us if he passed a medical and they still love him
 
I don't think it means anything other than a guy bloke out watching the footy, but I noticed Matthew Kennedy at the Carlton Collingwood game at the weekend. Maybe scouting the fellas he will be playing with next year.

Or next week, given they play Collingwood.
 
Depends how his kicking comes along. He is an elite contested mark, but his kicking has been beyond atrotious the past few years, and last year he played more than a few absolute stinkers of games where his contribution was basically giving away silly free kicks. There wasnt anyone knocking down the door last year for his services when he was uncontracted, and he ended up signing a one year deal with us for 200k odd.

For a Key forward, that's chump change.

He's playing much better this year. If he keeps his current form and finishes with 30-40 goals, I can see a side in contention offering 350-400k+. If he has a blinder of a year and kicks 50 odd, you can add another 100-150k to that figure.



Matty Kruezer (like big Levi) is an unrestricted F/A. Meaning if he gets a big enough offer, it doesnt matter if we match it, if he wants to leave, he leaves.

I can see him (and depending on form, Levi) getting a substantial 3 year offer from at least one club at the end of the year. We would have to ask ourselves a really tough question as to whether we match such a deal considering Levis flaky form (he could go back to being wayward Levi) and Kruezers injury history, and in light of the fact an offer on the plus side of 500k would likely net us Band 2 compensation (an end of first round draft pick).

Worst case scenario we could do a Western Bulldogs and play McKay as a ruck-forward. I had hopes for Phillips after a few games last year where he looked OK but he played a stinker in his one game for us this year, and his VFL highlights werent any better either. Either way we only need to do it for a year or two.

We need to bear in mind we wont be genuinely competing for a top 8 spot till 2020 at the earliest, and with the decade that follows being when our (repeated) premiership assaults begins in earnest. I hate to say it but Kruezer is 28 in 3 days time making him 31 in 2020 when we will be top 8. If he attracted an offer on the plus side of 500k for 3 years (1.5 million over 3 years) we would be better off in the long term letting him go, getting pick 19 and using that pick on an 18 yer old Ruckman who would be 21 when that 10 year window opens.

We need to draft a new ruckman this year in any event, and it doesnt really matter over the next 2-3 years whether we have a gun ruck or not (we arent competing over the next 2-3).
just a couple of points. agree completely with a lot of what you have said but;
1) Ben brown (nm) was drafted well below the first round and recently. kerr has more strings to his bow than first thought and is tracking well above expectations. of course he may not make it but it wont be statistical odds that determine that but his effort and our development.
2) Total club salary cap goes up to over $12 mill next year spread between 42 players (assume the rookies get the bit after the $12 mill). this means the average player gets about $300k. a ready made key forward/2nd ruck like levi in current form would surely be offered somewhere in the vicinity of $500k per year (mayne is reported as 4 years at at least $450k and vickery 3 years at $500k). kreuze currently as a top 4 number 1 ruckman would be offered $700k at a guess.
3) I assume that levi is unrestricted and kreuze restricted? salary cap is not an issue to us so if we want either or both to stay we can offer a lesser amount (not ridiculously less) and you would inagine that they would be happy to stay. the real list management decision comes in whether sos wants to match the length of the offers they might receive.
 
Well lets say we need to make 7 changes to our senior list, do you really think he offers less than any of these players;
Armfield, Boekhorst, Buckley, Jones, Jacksh, Lamb and Palmer?

No. So based on merit he should be awarded a year before them. Maybe we cut more though?


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Weitering is playing injured and we've already seen what he can do for the forward line, that many other forwards can't do.....bring others into the game.
There will be forwards that can kick more goals, but you don't have to kick them all yourself if you're the class that makes those around you better.

I'm with you, HARKS.

I initially had my doubts about him being a key forward. Not so much anymore.

First Jacob Weitering but ultimately the next line in the evolution of what Nick Riewoldt did in his prime (still does but not quite to the same extent) and what Matthew Richardson did in the twilight of his career. With his mobility and game smarts he'll absolutely pants the majority of similarly sized key defenders to the point where he'll demand a double team every week. A double team consisting of the key defender and a more agile smaller player who has a greater propensity of sticking with him around the ground but obviously lacks the strength, that JW should build, to compete in contested positions.

This will create a ton of space for a second or third key forward be that Harry McKay, Ben Silvagni, etc. let alone a third tall forward be that Jack or Charlie whose mobility again will be a massive factor for us. If Pickett and another player (LeBois?) can become dangerous small forwards on a consistent basis then look out. That's one of the more lethal forward set ups in the league. It doesn't take much to see it happening either if JW is the linchpin.

Yes, we will ultimately need a stronger key position defender but that's not Jacob's calling. He doesn't need to play back when we have Plowman, Marchbank and quite possibly Macreadie who already offer similar traits and skills that JW offers down back albeit probably not quite to the level that he offers. But plenty good enough to become unarguably one of the top defensive setups in the league.

The more time goes by the more it becomes likely JW is the next champion mobile forward of the game. If he can consistently kick 44+ goals per year (2 per game) then the rest will be gravy as he'll be creating a ton more.
 

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First Jacob Weitering but ultimately the next line in the evolution of what Nick Riewoldt did in his prime (still does but not quite to the same extent) and what Matthew Richardson did in the twilight of his career

does Weitering have the same kind of tank as Richo and Riewoldt because they were/are aerobic freaks? I would love it if he could play a similar role, an impossible matchup.
 
Your very pessimistic about our kf stocks or in your opinion lack thereof . Guess you dont trust the roadmap that sos is setting in that area . To pretty much write off a player (Kerr) because of his draft position is staggering.

Over the prior 20 years of the AFL draft 95% of all gun key forwards come in the first round. Less than 5% of players across all positions selected after draft pick 40 go on to play 50 or more games.

Statistically speaking he is almost a certainty not to make it. It is not pessimistic to say he probably wont make it; the reality is, it is optimistic to say anything else.

Far from being pessimistic, I am simply being objective.

Now don't get me wrong. I desperately want him to make it. I'm just saying from a list management perspective we need to be pragmatic and play the numbers. We don't want to be betting our future premiership on a 200 to 1 longshot.
 
Over the prior 20 years of the AFL draft 95% of all gun key forwards come in the first round. Less than 5% of players across all positions selected after draft pick 40 go on to play 50 or more games.

Statistically speaking he is almost a certainty not to make it. It is not pessimistic to say he probably wont make it; the reality is, it is the optimistic to say anything else.

Now don't get me wrong. I desperately want him to make it. I'm just saying from a list management perspective we need to be pragmatic and play the numbers. We don't want to be betting our future premiership on a 200 to 1 longshot.


Long-time reader – first time contributor…..

And sorry this is a long piece but this has matter has been annoying me for some time.

I find it interesting that so many pundits find it necessary to stereotype recruits by the number in which they are drafted.

It would appear that only first rounders will make it and if you are taken after 50 - forget it!

Having had some direct experience with Club recruiters over the past 24 months I can tell you the draft number is irrelevant.

Drafting is now a science. But on draft night it is also a mini lottery but the chances of good outcomes improve when opposition clubs are analysed from a range of perspectives – contract tenure, age profile and depth of list, numbers of players who play certain positions, salary cap position, father/son opportunities, academy picks, etc.

Prior to drafting a player, a Club will typically see him play at least 50 times. Recruiters will travel interstate, watch them play at clubs and schools. Video footage and stats from TAC Cup equivalent games are also made available should they miss it.

Recruiters will typically meet a player at least once – sometimes three times – before meeting the senior coach at the Draft Combine. Interviews are often video recorded. Copious notes are taken. Medicos and psychologists give advice as to the soundness of the candidate.

And Clubs interview the player’s families these days. They make a point of a home visit and like to meet the parents and siblings.

If ever the theory that high draft picks correlate to success is a crock I encourage you to examine the players in the 2016 Grand Final – and where they were drafted:

Bulldogs:

Rookies – 6 (including Norm Smith Medallist)

50 plus – 2

40 – 49 – 4 (inc Captain Easton Wood)

30 -39 – 2

20 -29 – 2

10- 19 – 2

1 – 9 – 4

Swans:

Rookies – 10 (including Captain Kieren Jack)

50 plus – 0

40 – 49 – 1

30 – 39 – 2

20 – 29 – 1

10 – 19 – 2

1 – 9 – 4


Therefore 40% of players who lined up in the 2016 Grand Final were drafted at 50 plus or lower still in the Rookie Drafts.

Sure 18% of players were drafted in the Top 10 but my premise is that this is no gold-plated guarantee of longevity and success.

I commend what Stephen Silvagni and his recruiters are doing. He has extra resources allocated in 2017 and has appointed Paul Brodie as National Recruiting Manager to work alongside Dale Harris and Michael Jordan.

Can I remind you that:

· Levi - Our most important forward – No 44/2010 Rookie Draft

· Matt Wright – our leading goal kicker – No 33/2011 Rookie Draft to Adelaide

· Ed Curnow - Best run with – No 40/2008 Rookie Draft

· Simmo - Heart and soul – No 45/2002 Draft

· Rowe – gorilla backman –No 62/2006 Rookie Draft to Sydney

Pundits who are fixated on high draft picks don’t get it. Thank goodness SOS and his team do and that is why we can see a successful future ahead.
 
It certainly does. We've shifted most of the talent into the 18-22 y/o bracket. With two more years of drafting to go including this year to finish the lion's share of the reset, we're in a solid position to have the list 80% complete by the end of next year, with the remaining 20% to come in via free agents.

My main area of concern is still the key forward post. You want at least one, and preferably two, big marking key forwards. McKay is young and lost most of last year to injury. 200 cm plus key forwards generally take 2 to 3 years to develop in any event, so he is going to be a giant question mark for the next two years.

I would ideally like to get another one in so that we don't have all of our eggs in the one basket.

Best case scenario both of them come on and we have two key marking big forwards.

We need to get in midfielders as well, but the reality is they are much easier to obtain as free agents then Key forwards are. Every year sees at least two or three absolutely gun midfielders on the market for free agency. This year its Fyfe and Martin. Gun key forwards on the other hand rarely move, with only one coming up on the market every three years or so.
I know this will be unpopular, but...

As he is having a great year so far, is it time to make LJ a full forward in the NB's for a few weeks to see if he can step up. He is still relatively young, improving, has the height and size, crashes packs, and as our midfield improves may get better delivery?

I did see LJ as a delist but maybe....
 

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I know this will be unpopular, but...

As he is having a great year so far, is it time to make LJ a full forward in the NB's for a few weeks to see if he can step up. He is still relatively young, improving, has the height and size, crashes packs, and as our midfield improves may get better delivery?

I did see LJ as a delist but maybe....

No need for it to be unpopular, other than to those that have pre-conceived notions and won't budge regardless of fact.

Everyone has a chance and it seems to me that everyone is going to be given that chance and right now almost all are taking their chances.
Isn't that a good thing for the club?
 
Malifice; I think most of us agree with ur analysis of finals prospects around 2020+.

I've read ur posts for the last two years and have agreed quietly about going hard at a rebuild...but now disagree with the sentiment to move on Kruezer and Casbault. That type of callousness is what Clarko has done to Hawthorn and a reason I'm enjoying their downfall. There is a stage you can be too cynical in your quest for success. Yes, moving on Kruezer and Cas can net us some value in their current form but it will also kill the club to some degree. If the club wholesale kill in-form players, players in-form will respond by leaving if a better contract is on offer. Loyalty can die pretty quickly.

Club loyalty and love are pre-2000 values i know....but a sense of fairness is still in play. Bruest will do what is best for him at Hawthorn, not what is best for Hawthorn and their supporters after being shopped. He will play within himself and not trust Clarko.
I think both will be offered a good (fair) contract by CFC.
Only risk they leave is they get a better free agency offer from a desperate club and want to go. Not really CFC's fault.

So Option A we get another 5 years of their best ever football as the team improves and they become more effective. Team rewards should follow.
Option B. They take the $$$ and chase success... but that is their decision. And we get compo.
 
2) Total club salary cap goes up to over $12 mill next year spread between 42 players (assume the rookies get the bit after the $12 mill). this means the average player gets about $300k. a ready made key forward/2nd ruck like levi in current form would surely be offered somewhere in the vicinity of $500k per year (mayne is reported as 4 years at at least $450k and vickery 3 years at $500k). kreuze currently as a top 4 number 1 ruckman would be offered $700k at a guess.

Nearly half of every club's salary cap is taken up by the top eight players in the side. Those are the blokes that are on between 6 and 400k each. That accounts for about 4 million. First and second year draftees and rookies are on about 100,000 each (players languishing in the VFL earn less and players that were first round draft picks and playing every game earn more, simply from match day payments). That's around another million taken up. The remaining cash is split up among the other 25 or so players at a roundabout 250 each.

These figures look set to go up by 20% this year.

If cruiser is offered 700,000 to leave, he leaves. There is no way we would or should match that kind of money, and he would be mad not to accept it. It would be enough money to guarantee us band two compensation which would be Pick 19.

3) I assume that levi is unrestricted and kreuze restricted? salary cap is not an issue to us so if we want either or both to stay we can offer a lesser amount (not ridiculously less) and you would inagine that they would be happy to stay. the real list management decision comes in whether sos wants to match the length of the offers they might receive.

Both of them are unrestricted free agents meaning we don't have the option to match.

We can table are our own offers and try to convince them to accept the lower amount, but if an offer comes in for as you say... 700,000 for Kruezer for three years (2.1 million), we can't even come close to matching that. The highest we would go would be 1 million over 2 years.

700,000 would come bloody close to band one compensation by the way. To get band one, the offer must put the player in the top 5% of all earners across the board.
 
Here it is, the real foundation for the future :

B : Marchbank, Macreadie, TBA
HB : Docherty, TBA, Plowman
C : Williamson, Cripps, Fisher
HF : TBA, Weitering, J. Silvagni
F : TBA, TBA, Petrevski-Seton
R : TBA, TBA, C. Curnow

I/C : TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA


If McKay, Cuningham, Kerr & Polson make the grade as well, look out, we are on our way.

Genuinely can't wait for the next two draft & trade periods to see who we unveil to fill those last 11 places.

Like the look of it all.

As a few others have said, SPS probably an on-baller long term.
I also think, provided he can continue to develop his game, Graham is a capable placeholder on the HFF. Replacing him would be ideal, but there are bigger priorities.
We'll know more about Byrne by the end of the year. Injury will be the only thing holding him back, so fingers crossed he comes back OK from the ACL.
Yet to play a game, but doing all the right things in the VFL for his age - McKay will be in our plans.
I also think Cuningham and Pickett are good enough for a bench spot at the very least.


B : Marchbank, Macreadie, TBA
HB : Docherty, Plowman, Byrne
C : Williamson, Cripps, C. Curnow
HF : Graham, Weitering, J. Silvagni
F : TBA, McKay, TBA
R : TBA, Petrevski-Seton, Fisher

I/C : Cuningham, Pickett, TBA, TBA

Obviously we're hopeful that guys like Polson, Lebois, Gallucci, Sheehan, JGM, Kerr, Sumner and Phillips can make the cut as well, but probably better to plan around them rather than for them.

Really need to address the forward line - Lebois would be a real asset here if he's as good as a few of the track watchers say. A genuine third tall here will also be valuable, as I'm not sure that's going to be Jack's game long term. Kerr, or an upgrade on Kerr, is where I'm leaning.

A young, promising ruckman has to be on our wishlist - whether it's in the draft, rookie draft or from another club.

Also going to need a small lock-down defender, someone to quell the dangerous small forwards (ie. Rioli 2.0). Buckley being trialled here in the VFL, would be nice if he can show some aptitude here. Pickett possibly another who could do the job.

The it's mids and depth options.

I think it's important when analysing our list that we don't get too greedy. Guns everywhere would be awesome, but realistically there's always going to be a few OK team players supporting the core of the list (ie. Graham). As the quality of the list improves, it becomes easier to accommodate role players, as has been shown with Hawthorn this year - plenty of guys who looked outstanding when the team was up are coming back down to earth real quick.
 
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