Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[FairKouta]

Would we look at picking up Tom Lamb as a DFA if he's cut at the end of the year?

one lamb is enough i wud of thought.
Could sure use a few weiterings though

 

[I AM CARLTON]

could we also do Gibbs to port if he wanted to for wines

Port might offer a bottle of Wine but not Ollie Wines he will be there next captain

 

[I AM CARLTON]

If you think that the Gold Coast Suns are heading anywhere then boy do I have a bridge to sell you.

They may be ahead of us on the ladder, by percentage, but we have a very clear path. What are the Suns trying to do exactly?

Are they rebuilding? They keep bringing in older players such as Michael Barlow, Pearce Hanley, Matt Rosa and Jarrod Grant.

Are they trying to play winning football? Their team selection often suggests otherwise. Picking younger players who haven't earned their spot in the side through mediocre performances in the NEAFL over more in form players.

The fact is that they're only ahead of us on percentage when given all of their starting assets they ought to be in the thick of finals action. They're as rudderless as any team in the AFL. Honestly, it's hard to tell which Queensland-based AFL side is managed the worst. It's as though they're in constant competition to outdo the other.

As someone who has spent the most of my Australian-living time in Melbourne, where even if Carlton's doing poorly, you can get to an ultra competitive AFL match I find it somewhat infuriating.

Edit: Even with the draft that they had we've got more and better players under the age of 22 than what they do. We've been rebuilding for 2 trade periods. They've had several.

Gild Coast rebuilding 4 top ten picks last plenty more picks this year, will prob get a pick for Ablett. You kinda answered it for me saying they are rudderless and guess what they are above us on the ladder.

 

[F_therest]

I know we never had any claims on inside track on any of these guys, but if we don't get any of Hopper, Kennedy or Smith i'd be a bit disappointed.

We really need a more mature midfielder to help Cripps & Co immediately.

Hopefully we get one or some other good mid pops up as gettable.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

My biggest worry is if we keep Kreuz and Gibbs then we stuff up our first rounder (either an injury ravaged player or just a bust) we then will very likely go backwards in our rebuild because the likelihood of finding a player with our next pick which will be after 40 is fairly low.

Also if one of them isn't traded we will have to trade a future pick for a possible Hopper or Jones ect and if we had a run of injuries like GWS or even Hawthorn then we could very well finish bottom next season.

I love both Gibbs and Kruez but we are relying on pot luck at the draft if we don't trade one or if not both of them.

 

[Jimmae]

Except as a free agent we don't have any leverage to force a trade for a first rounder...

If a club offers him $500k for 4 years, we'll be given Band 3 compo (Pick 22ish) and won't have any choice in the matter, as matching or bettering that offer would be hugely irresponsible on our part.

Not sure that would trigger band 3.

 

[DangerousD]

Jungle drums are beating fairly strongly that if Devon Smith goes he goes to Geelong.

If by jungle drums you mean, he purchased an investment property down there, which is a popular investment option and where he"s from, then that's not really solid evidence.

He might want to go there but the Cats have no first round pick as of yet.

 

[Funk]

I guess Richmond got pick 15/16 for lids who would be of similar value.

Anyway you slice it, there is a huge opportunity to get something that will be valuable to us when competing for premierships by trading Gibbs

Lids is a cripple - Gibbs is very durable.

Absolutely no comparison IMHO!!!

 

[Juddernaut08]

Except as a free agent we don't have any leverage to force a trade for a first rounder...

If a club offers him $500k for 4 years, we'll be given Band 3 compo (Pick 22ish) and won't have any choice in the matter, as matching or bettering that offer would be hugely irresponsible on our part.

Thats what first rounder or bust means...

If casboult doesnt get the massive offer that would give a first rounder compo, we match it!

If he does get a massive offer, you let him go.

End result is you either end up with casboult..or a first rounder compo.

 

[F_therest]

My biggest worry is if we keep Kreuz and Gibbs then we stuff up our first rounder (either an injury ravaged player or just a bust) we then will very likely go backwards in our rebuild because the likelihood of finding a player with our next pick which will be after 40 is fairly low.

Also if one of them isn't traded we will have to trade a future pick for a possible Hopper or Jones ect and if we had a run of injuries like GWS or even Hawthorn then we could very well finish bottom next season.

I love both Gibbs and Kruez but we are relying on pot luck at the draft if we don't trade one or if not both of them.

I don't think your concerns about the draft really make sense.

You're worried about our first rounder being a bust for some reason...i get that trading Gibbs for example may net us another bite at the first round, but then by your logic that could just as easily be a bust as well...and then we would be losing Gibbs for nothing.

'Finding a player with our next pick which will be after 40 is fairly low' - not with SOS in charge

I agree there is certainly risk trading future 1sts and we've seen Collingwood and Hawthorn get burned by it...i wouldn't mind trading our 2017 1st so we and our trade partner know exactly what is being given and received.

'I love both Gibbs and Kruez but we are relying on pot luck at the draft if we don't trade one or if not both of them.' - With a proper list manager and recruiters, the draft is more than 'pot luck'...just look at the haul of kids we've drafted from the last 2 drafts. I would prefer some proven midfielders over the draft this year tbh, but you're underselling the draft.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Excuse me for using the same argument again, but why would our efforts go largely to one part of the ground that may make us 5% better, when for the same currency we may be able to add 10% improvement elsewhere.

I can even buy us going for Schache, but Lever for all his qualities seems relatively pointless.

I know what you're saying mate, and I think any discussion of landing Lever is almost irrelevant as I don't even see him leaving Adelaide. My point is simply that if we were at the right spot in the rebuild I think we'd be remiss not to look at bringing him in, even if it only improves us 5%, for IMO a player of Lever's quality easily slots in amongst our back six and makes it better. That's all I meant, as I said talk of him is irrelevant.

As far as Schache goes, I don't buy into him at all. I just don't think he is that good. I certainly don't think he was worthy of being a number 2 draft pick. I'm not convinced he was even a first rounder. I will be disappointed if we are in for him.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I don't think your concerns about the draft really make sense.

You're worried about our first rounder being a bust for some reason...i get that trading Gibbs for example may net us another bite at the first round, but then by your logic that could just as easily be a bust as well...and then we would be losing Gibbs for nothing.

'Finding a player with our next pick which will be after 40 is fairly low' - not with SOS in charge

I agree there is certainly risk trading future 1sts and we've seen Collingwood and Hawthorn get burned by it...i wouldn't mind trading our 2017 1st so we and our trade partner know exactly what is being given and received.

'I love both Gibbs and Kruez but we are relying on pot luck at the draft if we don't trade one or if not both of them.' - With a proper list manager and recruiters, the draft is more than 'pot luck'...just look at the haul of kids we've drafted from the last 2 drafts. I would prefer some proven midfielders over the draft this year tbh, but you're underselling the draft.

TBF, SOS has only really hit the mark in one draft with late picks so far, I'm not sure why people are putting a lot of faith in him to do it again. 2015 we had four first rounders and Jack, albeit fairly late, is an exception under F/S and 2016, while Williamson and Macreadie are on the plus side, we are really yet to see what Kerr and Polson can provide for us with their potential. 2016 SOS is only 50/50 at this point.

 

[Pafloyul]

Still, I'd rather we'd give it a go than hold on to certain players past their use-by date on the off chance they come good or that we need them in a crisis. I'd be bringing in another six kids in from the draft this year. Three players traded in, three players traded out (maximum both ways) and six or seven delisted/retired from the senior list.

 

[Stamos]

I'd be bringing in another six kids in from the draft this year. /QUOTE]

Unlikely to be 6, given we have no second rounder and it's apparently a shallow draft

 

[BigFrizz36]

Thats what first rounder or bust means...

If casboult doesnt get the massive offer that would give a first rounder compo, we match it!

If he does get a massive offer, you let him go.

End result is you either end up with casboult..or a first rounder compo.

levi is an unrestricted free agent. we don't get the option to match.

 

[Pafloyul]

Certainly no less than five and if one of our trades lands us an extra pick somewhere, maybe more. We shouldn't be getting all coy at this stage because there's still a long way to go with our rebuild and we need to keep finding players.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I know we never had any claims on inside track on any of these guys, but if we don't get any of Hopper, Kennedy or Smith i'd be a bit disappointed.

We really need a more mature midfielder to help Cripps & Co immediately.

Hopefully we get one or some other good mid pops up as gettable.

the possibility of quality established players coming to us is virtually nill. i'd probably rule out devon smith on that basis.

we need to try and capitalize on the depth of the giants where hopefully with a full team and a chance at a flag their won't be any room for kennedy in the 22 and hopper (who is still best 22 but far further down in the pecking order) wants a greater role in an AFL side - particularly if it looks like he'll lose ground to taranto and setterfield next year.

i think people can see that this is a great environment for young players and we're going about our rebuild in the right way as opposed to the richmonds and collingwoods of the world who keep trying to top up with free agents to keep their coaches from getting sacked.

 

[Malifice]

Thats what first rounder or bust means...

If casboult doesnt get the massive offer that would give a first rounder compo, we match it!

If he does get a massive offer, you let him go.

End result is you either end up with casboult..or a first rounder compo.

Best case with Casboult it's Band 3 (500k plus). That's pick 22.

Due to his age, I would want us to take it.

Kruezer attracts Band 2 and I would want us to take that also.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

My biggest worry is if we keep Kreuz and Gibbs then we stuff up our first rounder (either an injury ravaged player or just a bust) we then will very likely go backwards in our rebuild because the likelihood of finding a player with our next pick which will be after 40 is fairly low.

Also if one of them isn't traded we will have to trade a future pick for a possible Hopper or Jones ect and if we had a run of injuries like GWS or even Hawthorn then we could very well finish bottom next season.

I love both Gibbs and Kruez but we are relying on pot luck at the draft if we don't trade one or if not both of them.

i'd probably prefer to lose kruezer over gibbs. i know kruezer's been immense this year, but i think that his influence is being felt by us particularly because we lack midfield depth, which at ground level he's able to pick up some of the slack. i think as our midfield develops, he won't be as critical. hawthorn won a flag with max bailey right?

gibbs is a player who if we can get a good deal for i'd be happy to trade now, but if he stays with us, at age 30-31 we can put him behind the ball like a boyd, montagna or kelly (which i think he'll be better at it than all 3 of them) and still be a very good contributor when we're relevant. i'm struggling to see kruezer making it as an a-grader to when we're relevant again...

 

[Stamos]

Best case with Casboult it's Band 3 (500k plus). That's pick 22.

Due to his age, I would want us to take it.

Kruezer attracts Band 2 and I would want us to take that also.

Sounds like Kreuzer won't be a free agent.

 

[Kramer1]

Sounds like Kreuzer won't be a free agent.

Damn right he won't

 

[Pafloyul]

the possibility of quality established players coming to us is virtually nill. i'd probably rule out devon smith on that basis.

we need to try and capitalize on the depth of the giants where hopefully with a full team and a chance at a flag their won't be any room for kennedy in the 22 and hopper (who is still best 22 but far further down in the pecking order) wants a greater role in an AFL side - particularly if it looks like he'll lose ground to taranto and setterfield next year.

i think people can see that this is a great environment for young players and we're going about our rebuild in the right way as opposed to the richmonds and collingwoods of the world who keep trying to top up with free agents to keep their coaches from getting sacked.

If they are losing ground to the likes of Taranto and Setterfield then they're most likely not going be worth pick two, three or four in the draft for us. We need to be finding the next Setterfield or Taranto. Trade one or more of the older two in by all means but don't do it the lazy way.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

If they are losing ground to the likes of Taranto and Setterfield then they're most likely not going be worth pick two, three or four in the draft for us. We need to be finding the next Setterfield or Taranto. Trade one or more of the older two in by all means but don't do it the lazy way.

for what its worth though, taranto being preferred could just be because he has more strings to his bow, not necessarily because he's a better inside midfielder than hopper. and setterfield being better is largely speculation at this point.

But i agree that's why i'm not in favour of a future first trade for hopper on his own. but adding kennedy would be asking too much...

 

[katmanblue]

If we finish bottom 3 next year I will delete my account.

Its pretty naïve if you cant see the club is rightfully playing down expectations intentionally.

You are also kidding yourself if the club and coach Brendan 'we are a club in a hurry' Bolton are putting a celling on what we can achieve. No one is saying we will peak in 2018, but the club will definitely be aiming for finals, I just wont be holding my breath waiting for them to announce it like Malifice will be.

As far as our offence goes, along with the rest of the side, it is improvingWe have scored over 95 points twice this year, we only achieved that 3 times for the whole year last year


Yep you're right, the club is not trying to lower expectations to relive pressure at all

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[Wickzki]

Are they rebuilding? They keep bringing in older players such as Matthew Wright, Rhys Palmer, Billy Smedts and Dan Gorringe.

Are they trying to play winning football? Their team selection often suggests otherwise. Picking younger players who haven't earned their spot in the side through mediocre performances in the VFL over more in form players.

See how easy that was?

Gold Coast are having player retention issues because they failed to develop strong Leaders, thereby creating a very ordinary culture. Their early game plan was "Give it to Gary" and as a result they've failed to develop their younger mids properly.

In the last couple of years they've changed up the captaincy, recruited senior players who work hard, drafted multiple high-end kids and secured most of them with contract extensions. They're in almost exactly the same spot as us, without the luxury of being a Melbourne-based club which generates more options for trading in "homesick" young kids. If they can get the right coach on board (because I don't believe Eade is the right man for the job) they'll find success isn't too far off.

We took Rhys Palmer on to get another trade through. We also needed to meet the minimum AFL player payments. You have one in Matthew Wright who is 27 and will likely retire before we push. Gorringe is still 24 and in his second season with the club meaning we got him when he was 22 turning 23. Smedts is 24. Had the latter two come on they'd be in the right age range to be contributors when we were ready to contend. Let's say that's 2020 when we make finals. Both would be 27 with 3-5 years left in them if they were good enough (Smedts is a depth player, Gorringe worth a gamble but will be cut).

You cannot say that about any of the Gold Coast older players. Rosa (30), Barlow (29), Hanley (28, 6 months) are all older than the oldest player that we've added. All three of them were acquired when they were older than what Matthew Wright is now. They've also invested far more into all three of them than what we did any of them save for Palmer's salary. They only got Grant in because their head of recruiting, Scott Clayton, believed Jarrod to be the next best player in his draft class to Kreuzer and Cotchin.

We've picked young players but for the most part our selections have been on merit. Most of them have stood up when they've been selected. You cannot say the same thing about the Gold Coast Suns team selections. Well, you can, but you'd be about as dead wrong as you were about Carlton picking up players comparable in age to the Gold Coast Suns.

I live down the road from the Gold Coast Suns. I am a paid up member. Whenever they have a members invite function to talk to their board and presidency, which they've done with some regularity over the past couple of seasons, I've signed up to attend more so out of interest than anything else. It's always interesting to see how a professional sports organization is managed.

The Suns are a mess on and off the field. It wasn't that long ago that the media were all over GAJ for half-hearted efforts. The Suns players still cop it from their fans who are displeased with their perceived effort. The club freely admit that the overwhelming majority of their cashed up members support the Gold Coast Suns second to another AFL club (e.g. Victorian and South Australian expats).