Bluemour Discussion Thread IV

[Blue_Fusion]

Based on the rumors on this thread, what I think will happen is:

1) We finish last (the Lions beat North in the final round, and we sink under them on %).
2) Lever nominates the Dogs. We send Gibbs to Adelaide, they send Lever to the Dogs, the Dogs send us pick 10 + Redpath.
3) Casboult departs to the Tiges for 4 years at 2 million as a F/A. We get Band 3 from the AFL as compo (pick 19).
4) Kelly nominates us, and we send pick 1 to the Giants for Kelly (maybe also a swap of picks next year in our favor). Picks 1 and 19 for Kelly and Hopper also works.
5) We send Boeky to Freo for Balic and a swap of later picks.

We lose Gibbs, Boekhoest, Casboult and pick 1. We gain Kelly, Redpath, Balic, picks 10 and pick 19.

One minor thing, if we end up with pick #1 and band 3 compo for Casboult, it'll be pick #18 because Giants have lost their 1st pick this year.

Now, on a more serious note. How about trading picks #10 + #18 to a team for their 2018 1st? If the Hawks, Norf, Suns, Dockers or Wiggles would be interested, I'd be down for it.

I just think we need to make more out of the loss of a contracted Gibbs. He's one of our best mids and losing him for Redpath and a speculative pick in a weak draft isn't quite cutting it for me. If we can turn that pick along with what we get for Casboult into an earlier pick in next year's draft, then that would suit us a lot better imo.

My ideal scenario would be:

Trade #10 + #18 for a top 7 2018 pick.
Trade #1 for Kelly
Draft 2 best mids available in 2018 draft using our pick (which will probably be top 3 again) and say Pick #6
Get Shiel as FA at all costs end of 2019.

There's 2 elite mids + 2 potential elite mids + Cripps, SPS and Cuningham going in to 2020.

Oh and lastly, if we finish bottom 2-3 again next year, surely we get a priority pick as well.

 

[Malifice]

One minor thing, if we end up with pick #1 and band 3 compo for Casboult, it'll be pick #18 because Giants have lost their 1st pick this year.

Now, on a more serious note. How about trading picks #10 + #18 to a team for their 2018 1st? If the Hawks, Norf, Suns, Dockers or Wiggles would be interested, I'd be down for it.

I just think we need to make more out of the loss of a contracted Gibbs. He's one of our best mids and losing him for Redpath and a speculative pick in a weak draft isn't quite cutting it for me. If we can turn that pick along with what we get for Casboult into an earlier pick in next year's draft, then that would suit us a lot better imo.

My ideal scenario would be:

Trade #10 + #18 for a top 7 2018 pick.
Trade #1 for Kelly
Draft 2 best mids available in 2018 draft using our pick (which will probably be top 3 again) and say Pick #6
Get Shiel as FA at all costs end of 2019.

There's 2 elite mids + 2 potential elite mids + Cripps, SPS and Cuningham going in to 2020.

Oh and lastly, if we finish bottom 2-3 again next year, surely we get a priority pick as well.

Band 3 is a pick immediately after our 2nd rounder (on traded to Geelong, but still in existence). Meaning Pick 18 already exists (the Cats have it) and we get pick 19.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Band 3 is a pick immediately after our 2nd rounder (on traded to Geelong, but still in existence). Meaning Pick 18 already exists (the Cats have it) and we get pick 19.

Ahh ok. Makes sense. I just figured pick #17 would have been our 2nd rounder hence #18 is the pick after our 2nd. But that would be taking 2 picks out of the 1st round not one so bit of a brain fade from me there lol.

What about the trading of the 2 picks for an additional 2018 1st though?

 

[The Flying Doormat]

If I was Kelly I'd be looking at how Carlton might perform with Gibbs out out and ask myself, "do I want to be tagged every week?"

 

[reubsblues]

No! To Redpath do people realize he is older than Casboult and basically shown nothing would much rather keep cas to help the young boys while they develop and its not like we dont have the cap room we can just front end his contract

 

[Smalls0304]

No! To Redpath do people realize he is older than Casboult and basically shown nothing would much rather keep cas to help the young boys while they develop and its not like we dont have the cap room we can just front end his contract

First off he is younger than Casboult, but i think the draw to losing Casboult is be get pick 20ish for him which is very good return and we wouldnt have to pay much for Redpath so effectively its Redpath & 20 for Casboult & a late pick. Bonus if we can do a Gibbs, Lever pick 10 trade and snag Redpath as steak knives for free. Surely everyone does Redpath & 20 for Casboult without blinking

 

[Heres Waite]

Band 3 is a pick immediately after our 2nd rounder (on traded to Geelong, but still in existence). Meaning Pick 18 already exists (the Cats have it) and we get pick 19.

Wow, just realized that the way things have turned out (us finishing bottom 2/Geelong finishing top 2), we basically traded Thuoy for Smedts.

(Realize we got a great deal on the follow up Marchbank trade!)

 

[Keyza]

Wow, just realized that the way things have turned out (us finishing bottom 2/Geelong finishing top 2), we basically traded Thuoy for Smedts.

(Realize we got a great deal on the follow up Marchbank trade!)

That is the risk you take with trading future picks. If we finish last and Geelong win the flag it wasn't such a good trade in hindsight.

 

[Mr_Plow]

We traded Tuohy and a 2nd round pick for Marchbank and Pickett.

 

[Heres Waite]

That is the risk you take with trading future picks. If we finish last and Geelong win the flag it wasn't such a good trade in hindsight.

Agree. I understand why we did it too. GWS wanted a first for Marchbank, but we were determined to hold on to pick 5. Always got to look at the trade period as a whole I suppose.

 

[Keyza]

Agree. I understand why we did it too. GWS wanted a first for Marchbank, but we were determined to hold on to pick 5. Always got to look at the trade period as a whole I suppose.

I understand why we did it too. Just doesn't look so good now, Geelong must be pretty happy.

 

[Keyza]

We traded Tuohy and a 2nd round pick for Marchbank and Pickett.

Which could end up being pick 18 and Tuohy for Marchbank and Pickett.
Geelong effectively will get Tuohy for Smedts and a downgrade of a handful of draft places.

 

[agro]

Wow, just realized that the way things have turned out (us finishing bottom 2/Geelong finishing top 2), we basically traded Thuoy for Smedts.

(Realize we got a great deal on the follow up Marchbank trade!)

There's been a few people who have been saying this for a while and they've been howled down.

SOS really is very pretty niaive when it comes to trading.

GWS were in a tight spot and needed list spots for Deledio etc and again we did them favours by taking Palmer.

We didn't need to lose Tuohy to engineer the Marchbank trade - and we certainly could have used Tuohy last night.

 

[viking12]

if we finish last do we trade pick 1 for Kelly ?
would rather select Rayner and SOS come up with another deal to get Kelly.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Which could end up being pick 18 and Tuohy for Marchbank and Pickett.
Geelong effectively will get Tuohy for Smedts and a downgrade of a handful of draft places.

Doesn't really matter if Geelong are ecstatic about the deal.
They won't be a threat when we are ready to contend.

We got our guy(s), we would not have gotten them with our 2nd round pick, regardless of the value it now poses.

Geelong's 1st was never really our asset, it was a trade week intermediate that was immediately flipped for the 2 players.

There's no point looking at the trade in isolation.

 

[AB_Blue]

Marchbank could be an AA CHB in 3 years and people are questioning how we got him?

Please.....you do that deal 7 days
a week and twice on Sundays

 

[Pafloyul]

Which could end up being pick 18 and Tuohy for Marchbank and Pickett.
Geelong effectively will get Tuohy for Smedts and a downgrade of a handful of draft places.

The moral in all this is that Pickett and Smedts are arguably not worth an early second rounder, if we could have manoeuvred the whole thing differently and just basically made it Tuohy for Marchbank, perhaps we should have.

 

[reubsblues]

if we finish last do we trade pick 1 for Kelly ?
would rather select Rayner and SOS come up with another deal to get Kelly.

I think the deal will involve picks we get for gibbs sos won't give up pick 1-2

 

[btdg]

There's been a few people who have been saying this for a while and they've been howled down.

SOS really is very pretty niaive when it comes to trading.

GWS were in a tight spot and needed list spots for Deledio etc and again we did them favours by taking Palmer.

We didn't need to lose Tuohy to engineer the Marchbank trade - and we certainly could have used Tuohy last night.

The touhy trade itself was bad - but touhy was out of contract, we didn't want to give him what Geelong did, and so we made a deal to get him what he wanted. Smedts hasn't performed, but what we got from the trade was a future 'first rounder' which we needed elsewhere.

Had Geelong dropped to 8th this year, and us jumped to 12th, the touhy trade looks far better, but the end result would have been identical - touhy and our 2017 2nd out, Marchbank, Pickett, smedts in.

 

[Bluey24]

I'd keep Casboult over trading in Redpath ........

I'd trade Pick 1 / 2 for Kelly, that's enough to get it done ........

If Kelly stays, I'd trade Pick 1 / 2 to the Saints for Picks 8 & 9 .........

I'd let Casboult go if we got word from AFL House that we'd get Pick 19 compo ..........

I'd slap the next person in the back of the head who starts a post with "if next year's draft is as strong as they say, then ........."

 

[Pafloyul]

I'd keep Casboult over trading in Redpath ........

I'd trade Pick 1 / 2 for Kelly, that's enough to get it done ........

If Kelly stays, I'd trade Pick 1 / 2 to the Saints for Picks 8 & 9 .........

I'd let Casboult go if we got word from AFL House that we'd get Pick 19 compo ..........

I'd slap the next person in the back of the head who starts a post with "if next year's draft is as strong as they say, then ........."

Yes, we've got a video!!!

 

[Unknown Origin]

If I was Kelly I'd be looking at how Carlton might perform with Gibbs out out and ask myself, "do I want to be tagged every week?"

Can someone please tell me, why on earth would Kelly want to play for the worst team in the comp? Unless money is a factor, I just can't see it regardless of rumours.

I feel a lot of pro Kelly posters on here are getting a bit ahead of themselves and are going to be disappointed come trade time.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Based on the rumors on this thread, what I think will happen is:
...
5) We send Boeky to Freo for Balic and a swap of later picks.
...

Freo if they wanted Boekhorst can get him as a DFA. Freo is ok for outside runners with the Hill brothers among others, not sure Freo would be desperate to get Boekhorst.

 

[gandaal]

Noone will trade a pick to get Boekhost, not unless they're giving WAFL clubs AFL draft picks to trade

 

[Benaly28]

Can someone please tell me, why on earth would Kelly want to play for the worst team in the comp? Unless money is a factor, I just can't see it regardless of rumours.

I feel a lot of pro Kelly posters on here are getting a bit ahead of themselves and are going to be disappointed come trade time.

Yeh I agree why would he want to play for the Gold Coast.