Geelong Vs. Richmond - the match of the ultimate underdog...

[PowerForGood]

But you do get to play at your home ground in an away final, so there's that

This is why Richmond are my smoky for the flag.
Undeserved home final week 1 against a non-Melbourne higher placed team, win that and they get a deserved home final in week 3 and then another win gives them another in week 4 probably against another non-Melbourne higher placed team.

Not bad for a 4th placed team.

 

[LoungeLizard]

If you want to look that way but if you rank them from hardest to easiest and compare them Geelongs games were harder in every level.
1st v 4th
4th v 11th
12th v 13th
13th v 14th
14th v 16th

Geelong had a reasonable fixture, but as I said Richmond was far easier.

Geelong's double ups games were slightly harder, but for a top 4 team, not so much.
17 games were exactly the same.
1/2 a game difference is not much hey?

 

[davos44]

Loser plays Adelaide in Adelaide or GWS at Mandarin Stadium... if they beat Sydney.

I smell some straight sets action!

 

[kickazz]

Neither side has been anything close to convincing in finals recently.
A chance to build some confidence.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Haven't beat the Cats at the MCG since last millennium? Wow. Where did they beat them since, Kardinia, Etihad?

 

[juss]

I haven't been this excited for a game, well, ever. Come on Tigers!

 

[King Brown]

Haven't beat the Cats at the MCG since last millennium? Wow. Where did they beat them since, Kardinia, Etihad?

Kardinia.

Personally I don't think records mean much for Chris Scott's Geelong. Their streak against Hawthorn ended in the 2013 PF. Their ridiculous record at home against Fremantle ended in the 2013 QF.

They've actually gone out of their way to lose finals in recent years when they've been favourites or had good records against their opposition.

However, they are against Richmond, who are the kings of losing in novel ways.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Kardinia.

Personally I don't think records mean much for Chris Scott's Geelong. Their streak against Hawthorn ended in the 2013 PF. Their ridiculous record at home against Fremantle ended in the 2013 QF.

They've actually gone out of their way to lose finals in recent years when they've been favourites or had good records against their opposition.

However, they are against Richmond, who are the kings of losing in novel ways.

Sooner or later, trends are invariably broken. You could also look at it the other way: the longer an unbroken streak goes on the more likely it will be to break. Of course that depends on a lot of factors, but now is as good a time at any, it's do or die for them. I don't think they'll get stagefright, they'll be absolutely manic, but will need to stay focused and not overdo things.

 

[Wojcinski]

Slipped through? Haha. Ok I'll bite. Lost 3 games in a row by under a kick with 2 of them in the last min of the game. At the same time cats won every close game including winning 2 when their opponent missed easy shots with secs remaining. All this and still finishing 2 points off top position. See you in 2 weeks.

Geelong has a 3-1-1 record vs the top 4, Richmond has a 1-3 record. Also Geelong is equal first on points, 2nd on percentage.

We hold no fears facing any team.

Lol do you play for Richmond or something?

 

[Danger!Selwood]

Both teams have shown they are capable of brilliance with a splash of ineptitude at times.

Anyone who thinks they know how it will play out is a liar.

Anything between a Geelong 60 point win to a Richmond 60 point win is entirely possible, and I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Jimmybob]

Not bad for a 4th placed team.

3rd

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Loser plays Adelaide in Adelaide or GWS at Mandarin Stadium... if they beat Sydney.

I smell some straight sets action!

About the only thing I'd be confident with about Geelong is that they won't straight sets.

Win and it's another week off (yuck) and a pf, lose and they'll clean up whoever they get in the sf. Geelong are better with some continuity, if they lose first week I'd expect them to keep getting stronger through the finals.

Since Chris Scott took over, Geelong's record after having a week off, including finals, iirc, is about 3 - 10 (this includes byes, split rounds and byes in the finals). The wins have been 2 against North and last year against Hawks in the first week of finals.

Their record the 2nd game after a week off is 12 - 0.

 

[PP34]

Something has to give either way.

Cats will determined to make up for last year's horrible prelim showing.

Tiges have to actually play a full four quarters in a finals game, something they haven't done in their last three.

 

[King Brown]

Sooner or later, trends are invariably broken. You could also look at it the other way: the longer an unbroken streak goes on the more likely it will be to break. Of course that depends on a lot of factors, but now is as good a time at any, it's do or die for them. I don't think they'll get stagefright, they'll be absolutely manic, but will need to stay focused and not overdo things.

Gamblers fallacy.

No reason to think Richmond are any closer to beating Geelong now than they have been in the past 11 years.

I mean I give them a shot, and hope they win. But I don't think they're due. They have to earn it.

 

[Ricketz]

Slipped through?
1/2 a game behind your lot with a better %
You don't like your chances either?

Richmond played games against the final top 4 x 4 times, we did it 5. Richmond played against the bottom 4 x 9 times, we did it 6 - so yeah, not impressed with their result or better percentage under those circumstances - we did it the hard way and still finished on top. Just like we will beat them in our home game, even though the AFL has given Richmond a hand out home ground final that they don't deserve.

 

[Milanista28]

if they beat Sydney

Or us.

 

[Rotayjay]

Absolutely massive game which will get 93,000+ to the ground and every other dedicated footy follower will be glued to the TV.

Whoever loses is probably not going to make the GF because the path will be so hard.

 

[Overhang]

Kardinia.

Personally I don't think records mean much for Chris Scott's Geelong. Their streak against Hawthorn ended in the 2013 PF. Their ridiculous record at home against Fremantle ended in the 2013 QF.

They've actually gone out of their way to lose finals in recent years when they've been favourites or had good records against their opposition.

However, they are against Richmond, who are the kings of losing in novel ways.

True, this will be a very Geelong thing to do, have this massive streak and lose the most important game we've played Richmond during that streak.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Gamblers fallacy.

No reason to think Richmond are any closer to beating Geelong now than they have been in the past 11 years.

I mean I give them a shot, and hope they win. But I don't think they're due. They have to earn it.

Of course there's good reason. Cats have been a powerhouse for most of the past 11 years, and Richmond have been ordinary, so it's not just about Richmond having a specific hoodoo against them. At the G with over 50,000 roaring Tiger fans I expect things could get very interesting.

 

[dean33]

Geelong has a 3-1-1 record vs the top 4, Richmond has a 1-3 record. Also Geelong is equal first on points, 2nd on percentage.

Lol do you play for Richmond or something?

I always describe my team as we... you know we won, we beat your team, we lost to your team.... not that strange I would have thought. As for our record against top 4, we have the chance to better that in 2 weeks. Good to see you don't give us a chance.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

Richmond will know the key to beating us in finals is start fast, Sydney do it so well. For whatever reason we seem to start very lethargic and work our way into the game.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Richmond played games against the final top 4 x 4 times, we did it 5. Richmond played against the bottom 4 x 9 times, we did it 6 - so yeah, not impressed with their result or better percentage under those circumstances - we did it the hard way and still finished on top. Just like we will beat them in our home game, even though the AFL has given Richmond a hand out home ground final that they don't deserve.

Do i sense a little excuse there just in case you lose?
I also think it is home state, not home ground, maybe wrong.

 

[King Brown]

Of course there's good reason. Cats have been a powerhouse for most of the past 11 years, and Richmond have been ordinary, so it's not just about Richmond having a specific hoodoo against them. At the G with over 50,000 roaring Tiger fans I expect things could get very interesting.

Richmond have been decent from 2013-2017, still haven't beaten the Cats in that time.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Of course there's good reason. Cats have been a powerhouse for most of the past 11 years, and Richmond have been ordinary, so it's not just about Richmond having a specific hoodoo against them. At the G with over 50,000 roaring Tiger fans I expect things could get very interesting.

They couldn't beat us a few weeks ago when we were missing 3 of our best 4 players...

 

[fpm84]

Richmond have been decent from 2013-2017, still haven't beaten the Cats in that time.

And they blew an absolutely golden opportunity to do so earlier this month when they faced us minus Selwood, Duncan, Hawkins, Blicavs and Cockatoo.

Three of those players are already back in the team - Duncan and Hawkins were both in our best handful of players in our win over GWS on Saturday - with Selwood and Cockatoo pushing for the first final.