Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 26, 2012
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Oh I totally am. But it is comforting to know that those losses in reality didn't mean that much even though they were incredibly painful.

Similarly, the Crows-Sydney game meant absolutely nothing in terms of the ladder. If Adelaide won that game then they still finish 1st and Sydney still finish 6th.

You could argue that it gave Sydney confidence that they can beat Adelaide at AO, but I doubt, even if they lost, they would have feared that. Similarly, even though they lost, I think Adelaide would feel that it could beat Sydney in a final at AO.
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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Damien Barrett needs to read the last page or so of this thread to gain an understanding of what sliding doors are - those 3 losses perhaps one of the biggest, most complicated of the season, given their bearing on the shape of the finals.

Damien Barrett has absolutely no idea on the concept of sliding doors. Those articles aren't anything remotely like sliding doors moments.
 
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Damien Barrett has absolutely no idea on the concept of sliding doors. Those articles aren't anything remotely like sliding doors moments.
He just makes up some controversial statement and molds them into 'if-then' statements. It's the peak of AFL media.
 

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deflated

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Thats a weird thing to say for a supporter of a club that lost its last two GFs in seasons they finished top.
As the post you quoted was about how the Swans play against Adelaide rather than GF's it doesn't seem weird at all. Was there any reason you wanted to remove all context beyond taking a random shot at the Swans?
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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Do any of your algorithms work out different home ground advantages for different teams?

Or do you have a blanket percentage improvement if it's a home ground for a non-Victorian team?

Perhaps there aren't enough records to get a reliable statistical figure?
I have dozens of venue-based algorithms, because, intuitively, venue seems both important and a bit more complex than handing 12 points to home teams vs interstate opponents. So I've tried it a bunch of different ways. But they don't perform reliably enough: They have great years followed by terrible years.

So either I haven't cracked it, or venue-based advantage tends to be fleeting, not lasting more than a few years.

Sample size is definitely an issue. Many times teams play at a particular ground only once every year or two, so by the time you collect half a dozen data points, most of the players from one game weren't in another. Which feels dodgy.

2017 has been good for venue-based algorithms, though, who currently fill out 8 of the top 12 spots on my leaderboard. Or more accurately, it was a bad year for assuming serious home ground advantage in interstate games only, because those did worse than just about everything, including ignoring home ground advantage altogether.

Right now it's:
Squiggle 1.0: 124 tips
Squiggle 2.0: 130
Squiggle 1.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 131
Squiggle 2.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 132
Tipping bookies' favourite every game: 134
Best venue-based algorithm: 136
 
I have dozens of venue-based algorithms, because, intuitively, venue seems both important and a bit more complex than handing 12 points to home teams vs interstate opponents. So I've tried it a bunch of different ways. But they don't perform reliably enough: They have great years followed by terrible years.

So either I haven't cracked it, or venue-based advantage tends to be fleeting, not lasting more than a few years.

Sample size is definitely an issue. Many times teams play at a particular ground only once every year or two, so by the time you collect half a dozen data points, most of the players from one game weren't in another. Which feels dodgy.

2017 has been good for venue-based algorithms, though, who currently fill out 8 of the top 12 spots on my leaderboard. Or more accurately, it was a bad year for assuming serious home ground advantage in interstate games only, because those did worse than just about everything, including ignoring home ground advantage altogether.

Right now it's:
Squiggle 1.0: 124 tips
Squiggle 2.0: 130
Squiggle 1.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 131
Squiggle 2.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 132
Tipping bookies' favourite every game: 134
Best venue-based algorithm: 136

So you are saying tip the bookies favourite! Got to remember that.
 

Jarman3

Premiership Player
Oct 22, 2013
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Sample size is definitely an issue. Many times teams play at a particular ground only once every year or two, so by the time you collect half a dozen data points, most of the players from one game weren't in another. Which feels dodgy.

So does this mean that the squiggle will sh*t itself if Carlton ever plays Adelaide at Adelaide Oval? Possibility of some kind of divide by zero error or something? :p
 

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Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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So you are saying tip the bookies favourite! Got to remember that.
Yep! It's very hard to beat the market:

Tipping-dots-2015.png


Source: http://figuringfooty.com/2016/03/13/2015-tipping-performances-of-fans-experts-and-analysts/

And those are only bookies' opening odds. They're more accurate by close, at least while I've been watching.

Even more sobering, the bookies perform like this every year, while I bet most of those dots that beat them in 2015 didn't do so the year before or afterward.
 

Yippy Yi Yeo

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One stat for me is the inside 50s; 63 to 42. Convention says over 60 and you win the game. A lot of those inside 50s turned into shots but not converted. On that you should have won but bad kicking is bad football and the Swans defence .... kept us in it.

My earlier point about the umpires applies; 28 frees to 14. A lot of the 28 were ridiculous. A lot of Swans fans are paranoid about it with good reason. Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you. How does the Squiggle cope with that?

If the Swans get through this week I expect the Swans to need to be a 6 goal better team to win the Prelim. No matter who gets through from this side of the draw if the Tigers are playing in the Grand Final it will be #freekickTigers (remember the umpiring you got in the 2012 Prelim, expect that).
What horseshit. We rarely win the free count so twice in a row against the same team very unlikely
 

Dwhale44

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Feb 13, 2013
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Similarly, the Crows-Sydney game meant absolutely nothing in terms of the ladder. If Adelaide won that game then they still finish 1st and Sydney still finish 6th.

You could argue that it gave Sydney confidence that they can beat Adelaide at AO, but I doubt, even if they lost, they would have feared that. Similarly, even though they lost, I think Adelaide would feel that it could beat Sydney in a final at AO.
I know we still have Geelong to get past this weekend but I cannot wait to watch my team try!
 

nobbyiscool

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I'll take the losing Grand Final! I can remember losing a prelim. I can't remember the last time we made a GF. I bet it's awesome.

Nah. You're wrong.

You spend a s**t ton of money to get in - that's if you can get a seat - and it ends up being among the most disappointing things you'll ever experience.

For my first GF (2015) I think I spent about $350 to watch the game alone, cos I didn't know any other AFL members with the right club support, and to watch it effectively from the ******* roof of the Southern Stand, and I could probably almost count on one hand the number of times I've thought about that day. And on the few occasions I have thought about it? All I remember is that Luke Hodge goal from the 3rd row of the Olympic stand and knowing at that moment - I think early in the 2nd quarter - that we were ****ed.

Still, if we made the GF again this year, and if I could get a seat, I'd do it again in a heartbeat. In that respect it's just as well we're on Richmond's half of the draw. I don't think the AFL members section would get far down the order of priority if the Tigers were in the big one!
 

gangsta deluxe

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Yep! It's very hard to beat the market:

Tipping-dots-2015.png


Source: http://figuringfooty.com/2016/03/13/2015-tipping-performances-of-fans-experts-and-analysts/

And those are only bookies' opening odds. They're more accurate by close, at least while I've been watching.

Even more sobering, the bookies perform like this every year, while I bet most of those dots that beat them in 2015 didn't do so the year before or afterward.

Wondering if you know: how does that accomodate instances where the odds are even?

EDIT: read the article. It tips home team
 

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