Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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beert said:
Not exactly surprising that when hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, businesses get very good at tipping.

It would be fascinating to know how they do it though.
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It's just the wisdom of crowds at work.

You have tens of thousands of people who each know a bit about football. Bookmakers provide a market so that people who know more about who's likely to win can make money: if you're confident that the odds are wrong, you can make a bet. The price (odds) moves automatically in response to how people are betting, settling at a point that accurately summarizes what the entire market thinks.

Bookies don't need any special knowledge or technique; they just need to be able to act like any market and alter their price in response to supply and demand. (Well, they do need enough knowledge to be able to post sensible odds at the absolute beginning. And it helps to be able to attract bad punters. But otherwise it's just maths.)

Given the money involved, there's also a good incentive for people who are genuinely good at tipping to enter the market, and stay in. Whereas people who are misguided about their ability to tip lose money and are forced out, or at least strongly incentivized to bet less. So the market gets smarter. If it ever starts to get stupid, the incentive grows for smarter/better informed people to enter the market and make a killing, which steers the price back in the right direction again.

So it's hard to beat the bookies because their prices are the result of large, efficient market in football knowledge.
 
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nobbyiscool said:
Nah. You're wrong.

You spend a s**t ton of money to get in - that's if you can get a seat - and it ends up being among the most disappointing things you'll ever experience.

For my first GF (2015) I think I spent about $350 to watch the game alone, cos I didn't know any other AFL members with the right club support, and to watch it effectively from the ******* roof of the Southern Stand, and I could probably almost count on one hand the number of times I've thought about that day. And on the few occasions I have thought about it? All I remember is that Luke Hodge goal from the 3rd row of the Olympic stand and knowing at that moment - I think early in the 2nd quarter - that we were ******.

Still, if we made the GF again this year, and if I could get a seat, I'd do it again in a heartbeat. In that respect it's just as well we're on Richmond's half of the draw. I don't think the AFL members section would get far down the order of priority if the Tigers were in the big one!
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Hmm, that all makes perfect logical sense, but I still reckon I'd love it.

I just can't understand how it can be more disappointing to lose a Grand Final than suffer through those years where your team is a complete irrelevancy. I mean, I might be about to find out. But I don't see how it can be worse than, for example, missing finals for 8 years straight then finishing 9th and building up the hype in the off-season that this could be the year we get good again and recruiting Ben Cousins and then we play Carlton in Round 1 and lose by 83 points while Cousins tears his hamstring. So you walk away knowing that more years of sucking lie ahead.

There's been so much of that with Richmond, just being terrible for year after year, hoping each year we'll get better, and it never happening. Between 1982 and 2013, when we missed finals for 28 years out of 30, that was some s**t.

I dunno, maybe you're right, but I feel like losing a Grand Final would be so much better than that, because at least we're finally doing something.
 
richoatthedisco said:
My old man won his work footy tipping comp one year just by picking every favourite.
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That approach will tend to only work in small work places! Although the bookies will always perform well, and consistently, in a large enough sample size they are unlikely to beat *every* individual tipster (the grey dots to the right of the red in the chart above).
 
Final Siren said:
It's just the wisdom of crowds at work.

You have tens of thousands of people who each know a bit about football. Bookmakers provide a market so that people who know more about who's likely to win can make money: if you're confident that the odds are wrong, you can make a bet. The price (odds) moves automatically in response to how people are betting, settling at a point that accurately summarizes what the entire market thinks.

Bookies don't need any special knowledge or technique; they just need to be able to act like any market and alter their price in response to supply and demand. (Well, they do need enough knowledge to be able to post sensible odds at the absolute beginning. And it helps to be able to attract bad punters. But otherwise it's just maths.)

Given the money involved, there's also a good incentive for people who are genuinely good at tipping to enter the market, and stay in. Whereas people who are misguided about their ability to tip lose money and are forced out, or at least strongly incentivized to bet less. So the market gets smarter. If it ever starts to get stupid, the incentive grows for smarter/better informed people to enter the market and make a killing, which steers the price back in the right direction again.

So it's hard to beat the bookies because their prices are the result of large, efficient market in football knowledge.
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There was a sweet spot in the late 90's /early 00's where the bookies were taking sports bets, but didn't have the data they now have. A soccer fan could make a tidy penny as the odds were all over the place as they only knew about horses and hadn't got their fix in. The internet killed it.
 
SJ said:
That approach will tend to only work in small work places! Although the bookies will always perform well, and consistently, in a large enough sample size they are unlikely to beat *every* individual tipster (the grey dots to the right of the red in the chart above).
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Yeah, was only about 20 people I think.
 
beert said:
Not exactly surprising that when hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, businesses get very good at tipping.

It would be fascinating to know how they do it though.
Click to expand...

Simple math basically.

If you look at it in terms of say a casino's roulette wheel, the odds they offer on each outcome provides a built in edge which guarantees the casino wins long term no matter what. All a bookmaker has to do is balance their books to also guarantee that same edge. & while it's wasn't always that easy for the old on course bookmaker at the track & plenty went broke trying, these days your corporate bookmakers simply ban or limit those punters that cost them money which helps make their job that much easier & of course that much harder for those who are smart enough to consistently tip well or spot incorrect odds as Final Siren talked about above.
 
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Final Siren said:
Hmm, that all makes perfect logical sense, but I still reckon I'd love it.

I just can't understand how it can be more disappointing to lose a Grand Final than suffer through those years where your team is a complete irrelevancy. I mean, I might be about to find out. But I don't see how it can be worse than, for example, missing finals for 8 years straight then finishing 9th and building up the hype in the off-season that this could be the year we get good again and recruiting Ben Cousins and then we play Carlton in Round 1 and lose by 83 points while Cousins tears his hamstring. So you walk away knowing that more years of sucking lie ahead.

There's been so much of that with Richmond, just being terrible for year after year, hoping each year we'll get better, and it never happening. Between 1982 and 2013, when we missed finals for 28 years out of 30, that was some s**t.

I dunno, maybe you're right, but I feel like losing a Grand Final would be so much better than that, because at least we're finally doing something.
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If Richmond lose the GF this year, you'll still be kicking yourself about the missed opportunity 10 years later. Prelims, not so much.
 

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Final Siren said:
Yep! It's very hard to beat the market:

Tipping-dots-2015.png


Source: http://figuringfooty.com/2016/03/13/2015-tipping-performances-of-fans-experts-and-analysts/

And those are only bookies' opening odds. They're more accurate by close, at least while I've been watching.

Even more sobering, the bookies perform like this every year, while I bet most of those dots that beat them in 2015 didn't do so the year before or afterward.
Click to expand...

I generally make about top 10% in the AFL picking comp. But I like easy to see ways of helping my choices. Bookies might be a good way to go.

Cheers
 
Final Siren said:
It's just the wisdom of crowds at work.

You have tens of thousands of people who each know a bit about football. Bookmakers provide a market so that people who know more about who's likely to win can make money: if you're confident that the odds are wrong, you can make a bet. The price (odds) moves automatically in response to how people are betting, settling at a point that accurately summarizes what the entire market thinks.

Bookies don't need any special knowledge or technique; they just need to be able to act like any market and alter their price in response to supply and demand. (Well, they do need enough knowledge to be able to post sensible odds at the absolute beginning. And it helps to be able to attract bad punters. But otherwise it's just maths.)

Given the money involved, there's also a good incentive for people who are genuinely good at tipping to enter the market, and stay in. Whereas people who are misguided about their ability to tip lose money and are forced out, or at least strongly incentivized to bet less. So the market gets smarter. If it ever starts to get stupid, the incentive grows for smarter/better informed people to enter the market and make a killing, which steers the price back in the right direction again.

So it's hard to beat the bookies because their prices are the result of large, efficient market in football knowledge.
Click to expand...

I agree its amazing how often the line is just about spot on. You can actually use this to your advatnage by backing margins about the line on certain games, i.e. if line is right in the middle of a margin you just take that margin bet. Do this quite often and get very good results.
 
treefingers said:
If Richmond lose the GF this year, you'll still be kicking yourself about the missed opportunity 10 years later. Prelims, not so much.
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Says the supporter who's team has been to a shed load of GFs in the last decade.

I think all Adelaide and Richmond supports will be ecstatic to make a Grand Final after a generation away, win lose or draw
 
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Looking at the Flagpole at the moment: why is Geelong ranked so much higher than Richmond despite Richmond being ranked ahead of them in both offence and defence?
 
Juke said:
Looking at the Flagpole at the moment: why is Geelong ranked so much higher than Richmond despite Richmond being ranked ahead of them in both offence and defence?
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Maybe it is because the flagpole gives more importance to offence than what squiggle does, and Geelong have scored more than us this season.
 
The Swans Blog said:
Final Siren In order for the Swans to be predicted winners in Adelaide/overtake the Crows, what do they need to do to the Cats?
Of all the recent games they've played, the Swans are averaging more than 90 points while the Cats are averaging around 60 points.

A few factoids:
- Swans have never lost to the Cats in the finals
- Swans have never lost to the Cats at the MCG
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Interesting. Tell me more on your blog.
 
harrythetiger said:
Maybe losing a Grand Final alone would be worse than losing a prelim. But overall, wouldn't winning a prelim at least bring that back a bit in net happiness? I'd like to know since as a Richmond supporter I'm constantly gambling with my happiness.
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Making it to a gf and losing is far far better then not making it at all. Big prelim win and the experienxe of gf week is a real buzz.
 
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