List Mgmt. Trade & F.A. 2017 (if a scenario sounds wrong - read on before posting)

[sr36]

What if we throw in Oxley - can take over Lever's incepting third tall role. It's a win allround - for the Pies anyway.

 

[loki04]

I'm thinking this as well. He's certainly started out his career better than Rance.

Firstly footy changed a bit since rance started out secondly *YOUNG* Rance was asked to come in a play KPP, not as a 3rd in tall sometimes on the *weakest* forward in the team. Kelly and Talia get the big jobs normally the times Lever has had better opponents he was taken to town.

Rance now gets 2ic forward sometimes the main forward depending on matchups with Astbury oft getting big jobs.

 

[Robroy22]

Doesn't have Rances natural pace.

If there is one stumbling block to his conversion from lowish possession (16 ave) winning intercept Half back to full time bonafide KPD it is a lack of speed to keep up with the quicks.

The other thing is Rance gets a lot of grace with umpires in regards to illegal holds vs bigger forwards, do you know of a single Pie player to ever be favoured?

I'm glad you brought it up. Rance plays on no-one and gets the same treatment Silvagni used to get from the umps. He's the only "protected species defender" I can think of since SOS.

 

[swiftdog]

I think we're ok for intercept defenders/mid-tall types at the moment. Goldsack (short-term), Howe (medium-term) then Langdon and Scharenberg developing in the longer term as similar defenders. I think picking up Lever is a risk because you're banking on him holding down a genuine key back position when he hasn't actually played key back at AFL level. Factor in the likely price for him both in terms of salary cap and cost to pick him up and it starts to get very risky. I think Lever is tracking as an upgrade on the above no doubt but I think the AFL landscape is changing where you no longer need bonafide stars on every line. Even then, that'll never happen if you're constantly paying a premium on stars from other clubs (a la Treloar, + Lynch and Lever?). Clubs like Hawthorn (Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Franklin) and Geelong (father-sons + ridiculous 2001 strike rate) built their premiership teams from the draft and thus didn't need to pay the premium on their star players. We did the same in 2010 by drafting Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Cloke etc.

So with that in mind I think the club shouldn't pull the trigger on Lever. Would much rather Saad as he gives us the speed the backline is sorely missing outside of the unfortunately perennially injured Sinclair. The bookends + small defender needs to be the priority here I think.

 

[Ga Doey]

Surely Stringer is worth the risk now that he can be picked up at a bargain basement price.

As tempting as he is, the real risk is the impact that he would have on the playing group.

I put him and Rocky in the same basket and hope like hell that we dont go near them.

 

[jackcass]

Alex Rance - 194cm 95kg
Jake Lever - 194cm 86kg

Get some cheeseburgers into the kid (looks like he has the rack to put the weight on) and sky is the limit. Rance used to get pushed off opponents when he was younger.

Reading the play, intercept marking and creating from the backline are all arguably harder skills to teach than playing 1v1 on a gorilla.

Still not sold at the price and we have other greater needs but “he’s only a third tall” is selling him a bit short as he has the upside (potentially) to be a Rance type KPD weapon once he bulks up.

I don’t see him ending up the same type of defender as a Howe or Schaz.

Dat price tho..

Yeah but it's not the gorilla forwards he's struggling against in those 1v1 contests. Talia, Hartigan, Otten and Keath get to look after those guys. It's the small-medium forwards. Hence the concerns.

 

[loki04]

I'm glad you brought it up. Rance plays on no-one and gets the same treatment Silvagni used to get from the umps. He's the only "protected species defender" I can think of since SOS.

You forget Josh Gibson, who was the equivalent Rance before Rance was umm well Rance.

Gibson had a tactic of 1 hand pushing down on the shoulder of the opponent as he jumped slightly early, stopping them jumping and allowing him to cleanly fist, he also does the Rance wrap around bear hugs both illegal tactics.

 

[Jasper84]

I can appreciate the work done by admin just now. Good fun banter but perhaps over the top. Thanks for keeping me around and back on topic we go.......


Who here feels that if we throw everything at Lever we will be just searching for a full back all over again next year. Kind of a sideways move in my opinion.

Didn't we draft McLarty to fill that role? He seems to be routinely ignored when discussing our KPD prospects.

 

[Piestration]

With Elliot, Kirbs and Daicos I'd be happy for Faz to go home. Also prefer Taberner over Schache. Would be a lot cheaper and although he has been a little inconsistent I think his age gives us some scope on getting the best out of him. He can be a very good target and looks damaging when on.

Taberner and Lever would be solid additions to what we need.

 

[Scodog10]

Does Rance actually ever play on the best forward though? Same could be said about recent greats like Scarlett and even Harry Taylor. They always had someone who did the big job like Lonergan or Astbury.

It seems the modern day full back is more the person who stays at home to cover the incoming contest. He doesn't necessarily play on the full forward...mainly because the stay at home full forward barely exists anymore.

FWIW, I think Lever will develop into a great Full Back. I think he has all the attributes.

The question for me isn't whether he is worth pick 6. He clearly is.

The question is whether he is worth $850K. In my opinion, the only full backs in the AFL i'd spend that on is Alex Rance or Talia.

Rance does what he likes because of his closing speed and Taylor is still an accountable KPD regardless of Lonergan in support, but the trade off is that Taylor doesn't get the numbers.

I think the role of KPD is largely dictated by how the team plays and who they have in support. In the Collingwood context we need a Rance style KPD, IMO, but again Lever is too slow to cover the incoming contest and not be exploited. If he's the one we're working to get loose then the opposition will just funnel ball through whoever he sags off. Can you imagine him doing what Rance does v Lynch, Daniher, Moore or Brown and getting away with it?

The one that I think projects most like Rance is Balta, but you obviously can't make that sort of link at this stage. The other option is the Talia or Andrews style which I don't see long term from Lever because he lacks that closing speed and is best defending when coming in from the side of packs. If he goes on to be a KPD he'll just be very different to the player we're all discussing right now and it's only at Collingwood that he'd be used in that role.

I likewise don't mind him for 6 and my issues primarily reside with the pluses that are getting thrown in with that. Money doesn't phase me if we're moving others out to make it happen. If you're making a big trade move the $'s need to match, IMO.

 

[DaVe86]

Rance does what he likes because of his closing speed and Taylor is still an accountable KPD regardless of Lonergan in support, but the trade off is that Taylor doesn't get the numbers.

I think the role of KPD is largely dictated by how the team plays and who they have in support. In the Collingwood context we need a Rance style KPD, IMO, but again Lever is too slow to cover the incoming contest and not be exploited. If he's the one we're working to get loose then the opposition will just funnel ball through whoever he sags off. Can you imagine him doing what Rance does v Lynch, Daniher, Moore or Brown and getting away with it?

The one that I think projects most like Rance is Balta, but you obviously can't make that sort of link at this stage. The other option is the Talia or Andrews style which I don't see long term from Lever because he lacks that closing speed and is best defending when coming in from the side of packs. If he goes on to be a KPD he'll just be very different to the player we're all discussing right now and it's only at Collingwood that he'd be used in that role.

I likewise don't mind him for 6 and my issues primarily reside with the pluses that are getting thrown in with that. Money doesn't phase me if we're moving others out to make it happen. If you're making a big trade move the $'s need to match, IMO.

That's fair enough. I personally thought he was relatively quick. I know his knee reco probably slowed him up a bit.

Overall though we are in agreement that pick 6 is fair, but the price tag is too high.

 

[swiftdog]

Does Rance actually ever play on the best forward though? Same could be said about recent greats like Scarlett and even Harry Taylor. They always had someone who did the big job like Lonergan or Astbury.

It seems the modern day full back is more the person who stays at home to cover the incoming contest. He doesn't necessarily play on the full forward...mainly because the stay at home full forward barely exists anymore.

FWIW, I think Lever will develop into a great Full Back. I think he has all the attributes.

The question for me isn't whether he is worth pick 6. He clearly is.

The question is whether he is worth $850K. In my opinion, the only full backs in the AFL i'd spend that on is Alex Rance or Talia.

Completely agree. I'd add My that I think we need to develop another Astbury/Lonergan type before a Rance type. Dunn will be fine for the next year or two but is getting over the hill. Reid also but he's swinging forward at times anyway. Then we have McLarty who's yet to play an AFL game. By all reports he's coming along well in the VFL but to put all the eggs in his basket (particularly when he's yet to debut) seems foolish to me. If McLarty doesn't come on as hoped we could end up as cannon fodder for any team with a reasonable key forward in a couple of years time. Also, I'm not familiar with our rookies so not sure if we have anyone developing on the rookie list.

 

[Schraderbrau]

As tempting as he is, the real risk is the impact that he would have on the playing group.

I put him and Rocky in the same basket and hope like hell that we dont go near them.

I'd expect them to be professional about it and understand that at the end of the day it's all about winning. I also don't think what he did was irredeemable and would prefer his second chance to be winning premierships at the pies rather than the dons.

imo there's a good chance he's on his best behaviour if he comes across anyway because this would be his last chance and he has so much to lose - as in millions + any chance to recuperate his image in the eyes of the public etc.

It's worth the risk because he's still only 23 and would come straight in as our best forward (best case scenario). Worst case scenario we lost a middle of the road pick in a weak draft and get laughed at a bit.

Also because Stringer and Elliott play tall we don't have to think about getting a KPF because i think they will complement Cox/Moore in terms of forward pressure.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

I have never worked out why posters don't like their opinion being described as an opinion. Thats what most of these discussions are based on our different opinions. If the numbers support your opinion great, doesn't change what you have expressed here being your opinion.

At the end of the day you can describe my opinion as idiocy, fools gold and making you want to vomit but it's still my opinion.

I just see evidence in Lever's game that he will become a great tall defender and the key to whatever backline he plays in. His intercept ability, his defensive positioning, his ability to kill contests, read play and see attacking options up the field is way above his experience level for mine. You don't share that opinion and it doesn't seem we are likely to influence each others much.

I agree he has the potential to be a great KPD in the Rance-type mould - and if he was to reach that potential then 2 first rounders and $850k would be fine.

But right now (admittedly as a 21yo) he plays as that 3rd tall who has the freedom to roam (which in Levers defence is also how Rance often plays) - but Lever is often seen to struggle when asked to do that 1:1 job.

If he doesnt develop those 1:1 defensive abilities - then what is he worth to us? Would what he provides be significantly more than what we get from Howe and what we might hopefully get from Scharenberg?

That for me is the dilemma. 2 first rounders is a hell of a lot to pay for a guy who, with what his current skillset shows, does not fill a current position of need. (Now if we are confident in McLarty being that KPD that can take the main KPF, then id be more willing to take the gamble... even then I think the current cost is overpaying)

 

[Ga Doey]

I also don't think what he did was irredeemable

Neither do I mate and I would have expected that the Bulldogs would have stood by him. But they want him out... and fast. I'm sure there's more to this story than what the ex-Mrs had released and it probably typifies the type of bloke that he is.

 

[sr36]

I think we're ok for intercept defenders/mid-tall types at the moment. Goldsack (short-term), Howe (medium-term) then Langdon and Scharenberg developing in the longer term as similar defenders. I think picking up Lever is a risk because you're banking on him holding down a genuine key back position when he hasn't actually played key back at AFL level. Factor in the likely price for him both in terms of salary cap and cost to pick him up and it starts to get very risky. I think Lever is tracking as an upgrade on the above no doubt but I think the AFL landscape is changing where you no longer need bonafide stars on every line. Even then, that'll never happen if you're constantly paying a premium on stars from other clubs (a la Treloar, + Lynch and Lever?). Clubs like Hawthorn (Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Franklin) and Geelong (father-sons + ridiculous 2001 strike rate) built their premiership teams from the draft and thus didn't need to pay the premium on their star players. We did the same in 2010 by drafting Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Cloke etc.

So with that in mind I think the club shouldn't pull the trigger on Lever. Would much rather Saad as he gives us the speed the backline is sorely missing outside of the unfortunately perennially injured Sinclair. The bookends + small defender needs to be the priority here I think.

He's far less of a risk than anyone we're likely to draft at Pick 6, so he's definitely worth pick 6. I wouldn't add next year's first rounder, but I'd add a fair bit. I don't get the desire for him to become like Talia, he's looking like becoming like Jeremy McGovern; intercepting defenders are becoming more damaging and more important than marking forwards, let alone shut down defenders.

 

[Schraderbrau]

All this huff and puff about Lever when we can probably get Alir Alir for not very much.

 

[Schraderbrau]

He's far less of a risk than anyone we're likely to draft at Pick 6, so he's definitely worth pick 6. I wouldn't add next year's first rounder, but I'd add a fair bit. I don't get the desire for him to become like Talia, he's looking like becoming like Jeremy McGovern; intercepting defenders are becoming more damaging and more important than marking forwards, let alone shut down defenders.

We have so many intercept defenders atm that they were often spoiling each other in 2017. Bringing in Lever makes Langdon or Scharenberg redundant and I don't think pick 6 + steak knives is worth the relatively small amount of value that Lever would bring on top of the players we currently have in that role.

 

[TradeDraft]

All this huff and puff about Lever when we can probably get Alir Alir for not very much.

Swans said he is not on the Trade Table

 

[TradeDraft]

We have so many intercept defenders atm that they were often spoiling each other in 2017.

That cost us the Game vs Crows

 

[soreplums]

We have so many intercept defenders atm that they were often spoiling each other in 2017.

It would be good if they knew how to dispose of the ball after taking an intercept mark.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

I'd expect them to be professional about it and understand that at the end of the day it's all about winning. I also don't think what he did was irredeemable and would prefer his second chance to be winning premierships at the pies rather than the dons.

imo there's a good chance he's on his best behaviour if he comes across anyway because this would be his last chance and he has so much to lose - as in millions + any chance to recuperate his image in the eyes of the public etc.

It's worth the risk because he's still only 23 and would come straight in as our best forward (best case scenario). Worst case scenario we lost a middle of the road pick in a weak draft and get laughed at a bit.

Also because Stringer and Elliott play tall we don't have to think about getting a KPF because i think they will complement Cox/Moore in terms of forward pressure.

Its kind of the old catch 22 - where if you have a group of mature veterans with a good culture already in place you can bring in someone like that and either get the best out of them, or at worst, make sure they don't destabilise the group... but throwing him into a young, still developing group, could be very problematic. I dont think we're at the stage that we could just absorb his "issues"

The problem is - I said the same thing when Dusty was on the market for cheap... but thats for a seperate discussion.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Swans said he is not on the Trade Table

They say that but he also spent the year in the twos. Don't think it would be that difficult to entice him to leave.

 

[Old Spice]

At the age of 21 Taylor was the CHB for the reigning premier so it's a bit rough to count him out for not being 80 days younger...

If your initial question were what defenders are getting the same numbers as him you'd be right, but you asked "Which of the current crop of KPD started out as one-on-one defenders at that age?" and I gave you the names of three players that were holding down KPD roles at 21.

If you want to shift the goalposts to a numbers based comparison in a defensive role I'll provide different names with Langdon, L Ryan, Burton and Scharenberg all offering similar numbers in the mid sized defender role. Hell look at Sicily who'd never played a defensive minute in his life until round 12 this year then averages 24p, 9m, 4.5R50's and 1.6I50's in the last 10 matches of the season in an intercept defensive role.

You are clearly correct that he's well advanced for his age, but that doesn't mean he compares favourably in a role he has no exposure in moving forward. The role we would need him to fill. What do you see in his game that will translate as a KPD aside from physique and past performance in a third tall role?

1. Facts are facts unfortunately. Lever at 20/21 played 20 games, Taylor at 20/21 played zero games.
2. Lever played in a premiership at age 21. Harry Taylor played in the Cats 2009 premiership aged 23, albeit with one of the best backlines of all time.
3. Taylor is hardly renowned as a clamp and certainly not fast. I'd wager he's slower than Lever which makes it a doubly odd comparison
4. I suspect you focused on Taylor because every other KP player you mentioned is pantsed by Lever at the same age
5. That you compare Scharenberg to Lever has you repeating the same mistakes again. Langdon's numbers are comparable to Levers but I think if you took the view on the main board that Lever and Langdon are comparable, I think we know what the response would be from the people with eyeballs. And rightly so.
6. I'm not pigeon holing him as a player, quite the opposite, so you might have to argue with yourself about that

To summarise, he's a terrific young player ahead of the curve. I think he can play one-on-one if needed but he's better utilised as a loose man setting up play. You don't get the surgeon chopping wood.

 

[Gone Critical]

I agree he has the potential to be a great KPD in the Rance-type mould - and if he was to reach that potential then 2 first rounders and $850k would be fine.

But right now (admittedly as a 21yo) he plays as that 3rd tall who has the freedom to roam (which in Levers defence is also how Rance often plays) - but Lever is often seen to struggle when asked to do that 1:1 job.

If he doesnt develop those 1:1 defensive abilities - then what is he worth to us? Would what he provides be significantly more than what we get from Howe and what we might hopefully get from Scharenberg?

That for me is the dilemma. 2 first rounders is a hell of a lot to pay for a guy who, with what his current skillset shows, does fill a current position of need. (Now if we are confident in McLarty being that KPD that can take the main KPF, then id be more willing to take the gamble... even then I think the current cost is overpaying)

Agree with all you say. Dont want to overpay but something like pick 6 and Shaz would work for me. Pick 6 and another 1st rounder, especially next years 1st rounder , would be too much. Pick 6 alone would be a steal but unrealistic.