Bluemour Discussion Thread VII (cont. in pt VIII)

[No1Suspect]

Atkins is bloke you get with our pick 39, cant say he makes the Gibbs deal any more palatable. Take the 10 and next years first. Throw 39 with Gibbs and give next years 2nd for Kennedy. Take 3 and 10 to draft. Grab Ranyer or Dow (LDU WONT BE THERE) and possibly Bonar with 10.

 

[Sheephead]

Sheephead has plenty of them.

I’m happy to get involved with an opinion, you’re happy to be a sniper - we all have our place mate.

 

[Soapy V]

I reckon we'd be ok with 3 and 39 for 7 & 8. Even though thats not balanced from a points perspective. But can't see it happening until Gibbs and Kennedy are sorted.

No need to throw in 39. 3 for 7 & 8 is tempting

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

Not meaning this only at you, davis, just that yours was the most recent example. But barass etc. don't owe anyone anything - I find it a little frustrating how people seem (judging by their posts) to be expecting them to report back like we are entitled to info and they are expected to keep us constantly supplied with info.

I know that isn't the conscious attitude of most posters, but the posts read as a bit demanding and entitled. It's pretty rude, imo. Give them a break, they don't owe us squat.

Not to mention posting their info may be putting their jobs / relationships at risk.

 

[Soapy V]

Just gimme a rumour even if it's baloney

Casboult for Schache
White for Kennedy
Pick 39 for 7 & 8
Boekhurst for Saad

 

[ferrisb]

I am a little upset by this question.

1. Get a copy of '95 PF and GF.
2. Watch.
3. Repeat 2 ad infinitum.

2a. Make sure you watch the post-game celebration and keep an eye on the railing...

 

[Spitfire1801]

I heard Atkins may be looking at a move to Collingwood

 

[Dravid's in]

Just gimme a rumour even if it's baloney

Sorry, Devon's already been traded to Essendon.

 

[Siegfried]

No need to throw in 39. 3 for 7 & 8 is tempting

Once again, I ask the question...

Would you prefer pick 3 (87% chance of a 150 game player) or picks 7 (60%) chance and 8 (47% chance)?

These are the realities over 15 years of drafting. 7 and 8 may be appealing on paper, and it may be way in our favour in points, but the reality says to me I think I'd rather keep pick 3.

That changes if we are going to use pick 7 or 8 to trade for a known quantity, someone who has already shown that barring injury, he's going to be a very good player for a long time. But if it's purely about going to the draft, I'm sticking with pick 3 thanks.[/QUOTE]

 

[smashbox gill]

I'm hoping for

Car trade: Gibbs
Receive: schache + 16

Ade trade: Cameron + 16
Receive: Gibbs

Brits trade: Schache
Receive: Cameron

Then Carlton trades 16 for Kennedy + maybe get an upgrade of picks as well

 

[Soapy V]

Once again, I ask the question...

Would you prefer pick 3 (87% chance of a 150 game player) or picks 7 (60%) chance and 8 (47% chance)?

These are the realities over 15 years of drafting. 7 and 8 may be appealing on paper, and it may be way in our favour in points, but the reality says to me I think I'd rather keep pick 3.

That changes if we are going to use pick 7 or 8 to trade for a known quantity, someone who has already shown that barring injury, he's going to be a very good player for a long time. But if it's purely about going to the draft, I'm sticking with pick 3 thanks.

So you're saying which ever way there is a chance?

It's purely up to SOS and what he believes is available at 7 & 8 vs Pick 3. Some years it's as good, some years not. My gut feel is Raynor Cerra or Dow is a better option than say Higgins/Coffield but it's a very fine line

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

Sheephead has plenty of them.

Poor form. Posts like this stop rumours being shared. As long as they are not completely made up, why be so critical?

 

[Navara79]

Poor form. Posts like this stop rumours being shared. As long as they are not completely made up, why be so critical?

Rumour history....

 

[Neadsy83]

Word is that we have this week spoken to Saints about trading 3 Pick. They approached us. They are very keen to move up draft for player - strongly believed to be Rayner. Source - U18 coach

Doesn't suprise me, I read somewhere earlier in the week they wanted to move up, GC was the club mentioned as they have plenty of 2nd rounders.

 

[Siegfried]

Carlton remains interested in Lang and is trying to persuade the out-of-contract Cat to join it under the promise of greater midfield time. North Melbourne is also circling.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...b/news-story/74f35e892272fcd384520018a99fceca

 

[Neadsy83]

Once again, I ask the question...

Would you prefer pick 3 (87% chance of a 150 game player) or picks 7 (60%) chance and 8 (47% chance)?

These are the realities over 15 years of drafting. 7 and 8 may be appealing on paper, and it may be way in our favour in points, but the reality says to me I think I'd rather keep pick 3.

That changes if we are going to use pick 7 or 8 to trade for a known quantity, someone who has already shown that barring injury, he's going to be a very good player for a long time. But if it's purely about going to the draft, I'm sticking with pick 3 thanks.

[/QUOTE]
What's the probability with a low/mid 20's pick like our 2018 2nd?

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

I’m happy to get involved with an opinion, you’re happy to be a sniper - we all have our place mate.

Opinions are great. It’s when they are presented as seemingly factual that the waters muddy.

 

[Siegfried]

So you're saying which ever way there is a chance?

It's purely up to SOS and what he believes is available at 7 & 8 vs Pick 3. Some years it's as good, some years not. My gut feel is Raynor Cerra or Dow is a better option than say Higgins/Coffield but it's a very fine line

Agree, that's a judgement Silvagni has to make. Just pointing out that once you get even past the top 5 picks, the percentages of getting a 150 game player fall away quickly (and pick 4 is a bit of a disaster too). It shows that while no guarantee, top 3 picks are generally worth their weight in gold.

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

Rumour history....

Some have better sources than others.... you're allowed to judge the possibility of the rumoured situation occurring but potting the poster is not productive (unless it is proven they are simply making a source up completely). Just my view

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

Agree, that's a judgement Silvagni has to make. Just pointing out that once you get even past the top 5 picks, the percentages of getting a 150 game player fall away quickly (and pick 4 is a bit of a disaster too). It shows that while no guarantee, top 3 picks are generally worth their weight in gold.

I'm not a mathematician but we do have two bites of the cherry if we move to 7&8, which should be accounted for in determining whether we get 1 x 150+ game player?

The analysis changes again if we plan on trading either 7 or 8.... who knows!

 

[GapInIkonPark]

No need to throw in 39. 3 for 7 & 8 is tempting

St Kilda would not trade Picks 7 and 8 for Pick 3 without a Pick 16 or 18 coming back.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Once again, I ask the question...

Would you prefer pick 3 (87% chance of a 150 game player) or picks 7 (60%) chance and 8 (47% chance)?

These are the realities over 15 years of drafting. 7 and 8 may be appealing on paper, and it may be way in our favour in points, but the reality says to me I think I'd rather keep pick 3.

That changes if we are going to use pick 7 or 8 to trade for a known quantity, someone who has already shown that barring injury, he's going to be a very good player for a long time. But if it's purely about going to the draft, I'm sticking with pick 3 thanks.

[/QUOTE]
This draft I think 7 and 8. Good chance of drafting Brayshaw and Coffield or Constable, or perhaps a slider like Cerra. The melts in Adelaide if we took Fogarty.
Not sold on Rayner.

 

[Soapy V]

St Kilda would not trade Picks 7 and 8 for Pick 3 without a Pick 16 or 18 coming back.

Then I wouldn’t do it

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Then I wouldn’t do it

Say we had Picks 7 and 8. Would you trade them both for just pick 3? For Picks 3 and 40?
I would not.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Once again, I ask the question...

Would you prefer pick 3 (87% chance of a 150 game player) or picks 7 (60%) chance and 8 (47% chance)?

These are the realities over 15 years of drafting. 7 and 8 may be appealing on paper, and it may be way in our favour in points, but the reality says to me I think I'd rather keep pick 3.

That changes if we are going to use pick 7 or 8 to trade for a known quantity, someone who has already shown that barring injury, he's going to be a very good player for a long time. But if it's purely about going to the draft, I'm sticking with pick 3 thanks.

[/QUOTE]
With Rogers/Hughes head of recruiting yes keep 3 Silvagni at the helm 7+8 every time . All about how confident a club is in its recruiting .