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Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

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Obeanie1 said:
Its pick 6 and the first 5 picks will be mids.

Pick 6 could well be the first tall picked.
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Collingwood's problem is that none of the talls in the draft are likely to be 'best available' at 6 (i.e. the best available player at 6 will probably either be a mid or Coffield) but all of the decent talls will probably be gone by 38 (their next pick). From where I sit Brander and Ballenden (who Brisbane will probably match a bid on anyway) are more 10-15 prospects, Naughton is decent and solid but doesn't really project as elite and key defenders are often found later in drafts. There's way too many question marks on Hayes to take him at 6, Allen is undersized, Fogarty is the closest thing to a 'best available tall' at 6 but even he is really a 3rd tall forward and probably becomes a mid. So they are either going to have to reach to fill their KPP needs (which they may need to given how poor their KPP stocks are but that's a risky call for a recruiter) or not get a decent KPF this year. It's why I was surprised they didn't go harder for Schache to be honest because they could have traded 6 for Schache and a later pick (say 18 or 20) which would have a) given them a good KPF b) still given them a decent pick and c) solved the problem of the fact that no tall will be BPA at 6.
 
Nunez said:
Hey Knightmare - I've given the Lions' draft fair thought and think based off need we will opt for LDU first and an inside/outside type like Hunter Clark at pick 15 if he's able to slip. I feel given we did deals with the Dogs (Schache) and Richmond (pick swaps) that neither will bid on Ballenden so pick 18 will be live. I can see us taking Allen. Some on our board have said we've shown interest in him and he interviewwd really well. A haul of LDU, Clark, Allen, Ballenden, Payne would be huge.

Reckon Clark and Allen could slip to our picks 15 and 18?
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I will either be very happy or very angry if Hunter slips that far.

Happy because a very good player has slipped through to the Eagles at 13 or very angry because the Eagles passed on Clark and picked IMO a lessor player.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Collingwood's problem is that none of the talls in the draft are likely to be 'best available' at 6 (i.e. the best available player at 6 will probably either be a mid or Coffield) but all of the decent talls will probably be gone by 38 (their next pick). From where I sit Brander and Ballenden (who Brisbane will probably match a bid on anyway) are more 10-15 prospects, Naughton is decent and solid but doesn't really project as elite and key defenders are often found later in drafts. There's way too many question marks on Hayes to take him at 6, Allen is undersized, Fogarty is the closest thing to a 'best available tall' at 6 but even he is really a 3rd tall forward and probably becomes a mid. So they are either going to have to reach to fill their KPP needs (which they may need to given how poor their KPP stocks are but that's a risky call for a recruiter) or not get a decent KPF this year. It's why I was surprised they didn't go harder for Schache to be honest because they could have traded 6 for Schache and a later pick (say 18 or 20) which would have a) given them a good KPF b) still given them a decent pick and c) solved the problem of the fact that no tall will be BPA at 6.
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Understand what you are saying, That's why I think D Fogarty is what Collingwood will use pick 6 on. A Pavlich type / size.
 
Hey Knightmare, you mentioned Charlie Thompson as a name to watch a while back. He had some massive games this year but doesn't seem to be in the mix to get drafted. Do you see him as a late chance?
 

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Pure_Ownage said:
Fogarty is the closest thing to a 'best available tall' at 6 but even he is really a 3rd tall forward and probably becomes a mid.
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.[/QUOTE]

I reckon Fogarty's best position is going to be Centre Half Back, so I'd take him for the Pies without hesitation.
 
I think that I would be happy with your selections for the Eagles. They seem to address the club's most urgent needs (midfielders, small forward).
 
Nunez said:
Hey Knightmare - I've given the Lions' draft fair thought and think based off need we will opt for LDU first and an inside/outside type like Hunter Clark at pick 15 if he's able to slip. I feel given we did deals with the Dogs (Schache) and Richmond (pick swaps) that neither will bid on Ballenden so pick 18 will be live. I can see us taking Allen. Some on our board have said we've shown interest in him and he interviewwd really well. A haul of LDU, Clark, Allen, Ballenden, Payne would be huge.

Reckon Clark and Allen could slip to our picks 15 and 18?
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Allen looks like a first round pick and he could well be taken before Richmond have a chance to take him.

In my recent phantom draft, I didn't have either Clark or Allen available at picks 15 and 18 respectively. Chances are minimal that they could both be taken with those respective selections, but it's still plausible.

Pure_Ownage said:
I think those are all valid points. My gut feel (Knightmare would have a better read on it than me though) is that Wooler is probably a pick in the 30-45 range on draft night. He has had a very good year at TAC level without starring and has some good attributes but that player type (3rd tall/undersized KPF) has a history of sliding on draft night ala Battle last year.

Obviously there is a family connection there but besides that Geelong is pretty desperate for a good KPF as you say so it's possible that if the higher ranked talls (e.g. Brander and Ballenden) are gone at 24 that we take Wooler there if he is the best tall forward left, even though I think that's a tad early for him.

Apart from his forward ability the other thing that gives me some confidence with him is his good endurance base and skills indicate that he has a reasonable possibility of transitioning into a big bodied/oversized mid (even though key forward would be better for us) if KPF doesn't work out. It's the undersized key forwards who have no athleticism and genuinely can't play any other 2nd position that are not worth drafting in my opinion.
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Wooller could go in the 20s if clubs loved his TAC Cup form, he's a 20-45 type pick. But close enough and pretty much right.

lewdogs said:
Hey Knightmare, you mentioned Charlie Thompson as a name to watch a while back. He had some massive games this year but doesn't seem to be in the mix to get drafted. Do you see him as a late chance?
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I really like Charlie Thompson's game. Not quick and not a good kick (every recruiter in the country instantly crosses out his name). And he's considered an outside chance to be drafted.

All that said, I'm a fan of his leadership and work rate (both are arguably best in the draft). Running both ways he is sensational and will run all day as one of those always in motion types (which makes any speed deficiency irrelevant really). He's a genuine contested ball winner but finds plenty on the outside and will run in support the length of the field, or work all the way back defensively. His production is as good as any and he's achieved high end midfield numbers mostly player as a forward flanker.

A late pick for Thompson is something I'd consider, but he should be there as a rookie and would be one to invest in if there.

tonygeeks said:
Hey KM , ever heard of a kid named Patrick Farrant a country lad from SW WA over east ( I’m hoping not )

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Invited to the state combine after only the five games late season where he hit the scoreboard. Given that, there are at least two or three clubs who wanted to at least see him test.

Have not sited so can't comment.
 
Knightmare said:
Allen looks like a first round pick and he could well be taken before Richmond have a chance to take him.

In my recent phantom draft, I didn't have either Clark or Allen available at picks 15 and 18 respectively. Chances are minimal that they could both be taken with those respective selections, but it's still plausible.



Wooller could go in the 20s if clubs loved his TAC Cup form, he's a 20-45 type pick. But close enough and pretty much right.



I really like Charlie Thompson's game. Not quick and not a good kick (every recruiter in the country instantly crosses out his name). And he's considered an outside chance to be drafted.

All that said, I'm a fan of his leadership and work rate (both are arguably best in the draft). Running both ways he is sensational and will run all day as one of those always in motion types (which makes any speed deficiency irrelevant really). He's a genuine contested ball winner but finds plenty on the outside and will run in support the length of the field, or work all the way back defensively. His production is as good as any and he's achieved high end midfield numbers mostly player as a forward flanker.

A late pick for Thompson is something I'd consider, but he should be there as a rookie and would be one to invest in if there.



Invited to the state combine after only the five games late season where he hit the scoreboard. Given that, there are at least two or three clubs who wanted to at least see him test.

Have not sited so can't comment.
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Cheers , best keep it that way ....... nothing to see here


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Richmond
List needs
1. Key forward
2. Outside pace and skill
3. General defenders
Draft picks: 17, 20, 25, 53, 55, 74, 92
Who should they draft? Oscar Allen at No. 17 can develop into a long-term key forward for Richmond. For outside pace and skill, potential father-son selection Patrick Naish adds run with either Richmond's pick 20 or 25. Ben Paton as an overage backman at selection 53 can provide Richmond an immediate option down back who provides run from defence and has good skills and strong performances under his belt.

Interesting thoughts, and I'd love to hear why you think pace and skill and general defenders are a need.

I'm not sure Richmond desperately needs outside pace and skill, it's got guys like Menadue and Markov who can't make their way in, and Richmond looked pretty quick in the finals. General defenders seem okay, maybe a replacement for Houli? Grimes and Broad are there.

Happy to be proven wrong though! And I'm glad you haven't told us about how we need one of those hybrid ruckmen/KPFs. Unless they're guns like Wright they end up being not quite one thing, not quite the other. Although you have us picking Hayes in your October draft. :'(
 
Glenny83 said:
Power rankings are a rank of talent/ability, the phantom mock draft is where they are likely to be picked by each prospective club.


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Bonar is one of the most talented players in the draft. Knightmare is pretty much the only scout in Australia who doesn't have him in their Power Rankings
 

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cleveland said:
Can anyone see Rory Lehman getting drafted (possibly rookie draft)

Had 2 solid years at coburg before having a ripper year in the Efl with vermont and is only 21.
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Has Lehmann stepped up his game significantly since Coburg? Don't have time for any EFL or anything below VFL level.

Richo83 said:
Richmond
List needs
1. Key forward
2. Outside pace and skill
3. General defenders
Draft picks: 17, 20, 25, 53, 55, 74, 92
Who should they draft? Oscar Allen at No. 17 can develop into a long-term key forward for Richmond. For outside pace and skill, potential father-son selection Patrick Naish adds run with either Richmond's pick 20 or 25. Ben Paton as an overage backman at selection 53 can provide Richmond an immediate option down back who provides run from defence and has good skills and strong performances under his belt.

Interesting thoughts, and I'd love to hear why you think pace and skill and general defenders are a need.

I'm not sure Richmond desperately needs outside pace and skill, it's got guys like Menadue and Markov who can't make their way in, and Richmond looked pretty quick in the finals. General defenders seem okay, maybe a replacement for Houli? Grimes and Broad are there.

Happy to be proven wrong though! And I'm glad you haven't told us about how we need one of those hybrid ruckmen/KPFs. Unless they're guns like Wright they end up being not quite one thing, not quite the other. Although you have us picking Hayes in your October draft. :'(
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Richmond have a lot of guys who can heap on pressure, but in terms of pace and skill, I do look at Richmond as deficient.

Menadue has promising attributes with his pace and evasion but isn't clearly AFL standard with his ball winning not up to scratch. Markov has pace and can leap and take a mark, but his skills and decision making is a ? for me. Both are possibles but neither are convincing yet.

Richmond do have enough speedy types and aren't a slow team, but I find myself not rating a lot of those speedy types, with a lot of Richmond's quicker players having poor skills or decision making. Richmond I feel need good quality players with good skills and decision making back, outside and through the midfield.

As for Hayes. He is a genuine ruckman. He was an Under-18 All-Australian ruckman as an underager. He's just a genuine ruckman who happens to be equally capable as a key forward, which is why so many are attracted to his game. At 203cm, he is no tweener. It's just a question of talent ID and how much you like his game and what you see his upside as being.

Jootube said:
Knightmare
You have Bonar going @ 10 in your phantom, but he doesn't crack a mention in your October power rankings, what gives?
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As answered by Glenny. My power rankings are where I rate everyone while my phantom draft is where I predict players go on draft day.

Bonar is in my extended power rankings (see page one) and isn't far out of my top 20. I'm still toying with including him. His play though hasn't been all that strong and has been mostly low impact.

He's one where you take him on the hope that with training and time he'll come good and reach his potential. He's not likely to have an impact year one with his fitness a long way off and that impact on games not yet there.

Overall, I've just found myself more excited by other prospects.

sven_inc said:
Thanks for all the time and effort mate.

How do you see Aaron Darling as a prospect? Despite his ACL does he seem draftable?
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State combine invite, don't know where he is at with his recovery or whether he did any testing. He seems like someone clubs are keeping tabs on, without necessarily being committed to drafting.

I sense he's one clubs will ask to come back next year and they'll re-assess.
 
Jootube said:
Bonar is one of the most talented players in the draft. Knightmare is pretty much the only scout in Australia who doesn't have him in their Power Rankings
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I've never been one to toe the party line when it comes to my power rankings. And nor should anyone.

Make your own talent ID calls. Back yourself in and be independent.

Sometimes you'll hit, sometimes you'll miss. Learn from the misses you'll find some others don't and avoid some that others fall in love with that they probably shouldn't.
 
JuniorWatch said:
I'll admit I've only seen him play twice but I've been super impressed by Ethan Penrith playing off HB.
Super quick, good 1 on 1 for his size, tidy disposal.
What's the knock on him? There's not much chatter about.
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Has pace and is a very aggressive tackler who really gets after it. Kicking is his major issue, it's not at all reliable.

His best chance in my view is as a pressure forward. Maybe he can be something like what Castagna or Butler have been for Richmond.
 
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