Live Event 2017 AFL Draft - #2, #5, #42, #60, #66, #70, #77, #80, #90

[Joao]

I can see Naughton being.a low risk pick. He could easily be a 200 game player. If Freo don't pick him he'll slip through our fingers.

Pretty much everyone wants two mids from this draft.

What is your basis for this? How are you judging him against the top 5 mids?

He COULD easily be a 200 gamer, or a Legend, or do 3 ACLs, be the KPD version of Suban or just be a flatout spud.

 

[Tundrawolf]

LDU looking pretty likely to be available at pick 2. Do we want him? Convince me Tundrawolf.

There are a number that would be great picks, so I'm pretty sure most of us will be happy if we pick up 2 of the expected top 6 or 7.

We really can't go wrong with a combo of 2 of LDU, Rayner, Dow, Fogarty, Stephenson, Brayshaw or Cerra.
Cerra is probably too similar to LDU in size and style so I think we'll go with Brayshaw, Stephenson or Fogarty at 5. I'm expecting Dow to go at 1 and Rayner to go at 3, but that order will change 100 times before draft day. It also wouldn't surprise me if we went Brayshaw and Fogarty.

Sorry I probably didn't really convince you ha!

 

[jedi mind tricks]

What is your basis for this? How are you judging him against the top 5 mids?

He COULD easily be a 200 gamer, or a Legend, or do 3 ACLs, be the KPD version of Suban or just be a flatout spud.

When people make predictions they don't think to themselves 'he might do 3 ACLs so let's not draft him'

I'm basing it on having watched all his Peel games live and seeing how he reads the play, his skill set and football smarts and how they could adapt to the AFL environment.

How do you base your predictions?

 

[free at last]

There are a number that would be great picks, so I'm pretty sure most of us will be happy if we pick up 2 of the expected top 6 or 7.

We really can't go wrong with a combo of 2 of LDU, Rayner, Dow, Fogarty, Stephenson, Brayshaw or Cerra.
Cerra is probably too similar to LDU in size and style so I think we'll go with Brayshaw, Stephenson or Fogarty at 5. I'm expecting Dow to go at 1 and Rayner to go at 3, but that order will change 100 times before draft day. It also wouldn't surprise me if we went Brayshaw and Fogarty.

Sorry I probably didn't really convince you ha!

Brayshaw & Fogarty is my hope.

 

[Joao]

When people make predictions they don't think to themselves 'he might do 3 ACLs so let's not draft him'

I'm basing it on having watched all his Peel games live and seeing how he reads the play, his skill set and football smarts and how they could adapt to the AFL environment.

How do you base your predictions?

I watched the U18s and any highlights of the likely players in consideration. I also watch Peel games when televised.

If you want to go down the path of writing off the midfielders because several top 10 picks each year don't make it I don't understand how Naughton is immune to that just because you watched him? All top 10 picks display attributes for being gun in their draft year - hence the high selection.

So my question is what about Naughton's ability makes him a sure thing (ie why are his performances better than everyone else's)? Also, if he is so far in front that it is blinding obviously he is a jet, how come he is not in the conversation for pick 1?

 

[Walkingwounded]

Including West Aussies. Trust me WA was as surprised as anyone at how well they went in the Championships.

I always grew up being coached that a champion team working together will beat a team of champions..

WA applied more pressure on the ball carrier than any of the other teams, that’s what got them over the line in the close ones!

 

[peppy la pew]

I love it that you guys are changing your minds, it shows how tight the top 5 picks are

For me I am staunch on the Rayne & Fog

 

[jedi mind tricks]

I watched the U18s and any highlights of the likely players in consideration. I also watch Peel games when televised.

If you want to go down the path of writing off the midfielders because several top 10 picks each year don't make it I don't understand how Naughton is immune to that just because you watched him? All top 10 picks display attributes for being gun in their draft year - hence the high selection.

So my question is what about Naughton's ability makes him a sure thing (ie why are his performances better than everyone else's)? Also, if he is so far in front that it is blinding obviously he is a jet, how come he is not in the conversation for pick 1?

I haven't written off any of this years mids

I just think it would be a shame if Freo passed on Naughton as I believe he has as much chance of making it than any of the top touted mids this draft.

 

[wayToGo_]

I've gone back and reviewed hours of footage, dozens of articles, stats, combine results, interviews, club statements and various other sources of information and have now managed to drill it down with a fair bit of confidence to two of:

Rayner, Davies-Uniacke, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson, Brayshaw, Fogarty, Brander, Naughton

No need to appreciate all my efforts narrowing the field for you... You are most welcome.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Yep this

WA had a terrific state champs with them matching it with both Metro and Country. That wasn't achieved by a team full of average to less than average players. When we look back at this draft in 5 years I guarantee the AFL media will have over rated many players.

Sorry man, but the /s means sarcasm. Do you honestly think the media influences our recruiters, whose whole life and career revolves around studying players and knowing what separates a good player from bad. Whose job is based off the picks they make? there are always players who don't turn out to be the players projected or turn out better than originally thought, its not an exact science. The media has absolutely no role in influencing recruiters opinions

 

[Joao]

I haven't written off any of this years mids

I just think it would be a shame if Freo passed on Naughton as I believe he has as much chance of making it than any of the top touted mids this draft.

So if he has the same chance as making it as the other blokes and the consensus is he is not one of the top 5 talents, why do we want him with a top 5 pick?

Why is it that not picking Naughton is having him "slip through our fingers" but that is not a concern with the more fancied players?

 

[free at last]

Sorry man, but the /s means sarcasm. Do you honestly think the media influences our recruiters, whose whole life and career revolves around studying players and knowing what separates a good player from bad. Whose job is based off the picks they make? there are always players who don't turn out to be the players projected or turn out better than originally thought, its not an exact science. The media has absolutely no role in influencing recruiters opinions

Especially at freo

 

[Carnthedockers]

LDU looking pretty likely to be available at pick 2. Do we want him? Convince me Tundrawolf.

Who’s going 1? Rayner?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

When people make predictions they don't think to themselves 'he might do 3 ACLs so let's not draft him'

I'm basing it on having watched all his Peel games live and seeing how he reads the play, his skill set and football smarts and how they could adapt to the AFL environment.

How do you base your predictions?

This here is the problem. If he wasnt from WA (Peel in particular) this wouldnt even be a discussion. The only reason there are some people on here who want him so badly is because they have seen him live over any of the other available proposed top 10 picks. For the record, most of us who DONT want him fully expect him to be a 200 game player from what we've seen. It's that he doesnt fit our list at the moment which is stacked for young KPD's that project as terrific players and that using pick 5 on a spot where we are covered seems redundant.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Sorry man, but the /s means sarcasm. Do you honestly think the media influences our recruiters, whose whole life and career revolves around studying players and knowing what separates a good player from bad. Whose job is based off the picks they make? there are always players who don't turn out to be the players projected or turn out better than originally thought, its not an exact science. The media has absolutely no role in influencing recruiters opinions

I don't think the media influences Freo

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Especially at freo

This, if anything, its the opposite. We draft whoever the f we want, for better or worse. You could almost make a case for us deliberately going against the media (at least, more so than conforming).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I don't think the media influences Freo

Oh ok, a good case could be made for influencing bigfooty I would imagine

 

[Joao]

This here is the problem. If he wasnt from WA (Peel in particular) this wouldnt even be a discussion. The only reason there are some people on here who want him so badly is because they have seen him live over any of the other available proposed top 10 picks. For the record, most of us who DONT want him fully expect him to be a 200 game player from what we've seen. It's that he doesnt fit our list at the moment which is stacked for young KPD's that project as terrific players and that using pick 5 on a spot where we are covered seems redundant.

Emotional attachment is real. It is not wrong but boy do I hope the recruiters don't make their decisions based on it.

Case and point is O'Reilly. Half of this board have him penciled in as a 300 game, 600 goal KPF when in reality nobody (well maybe somebody does) here has any idea if he is actually good or if he will even get to Freo. I know he is not in any of the rankings for u17 players at the moment. Obviously those lists tend to change but 1st round KPFs usually have plenty of hype around them by this stage.

The other one is Ian Hill. I tend to agree that we need him (behind only Lukosius, Rankine or Max King of those I have seen for next year) but not because he is named Hill and is from WA, but because he is a ****ing jet.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

This here is the problem. If he wasnt from WA (Peel in particular) this wouldnt even be a discussion. The only reason there are some people on here who want him so badly is because they have seen him live over any of the other available proposed top 10 picks. For the record, most of us who DONT want him fully expect him to be a 200 game player from what we've seen. It's that he doesnt fit our list at the moment which is stacked for young KPD's that project as terrific players and that using pick 5 on a spot where we are covered seems redundant.

Johnson will retire soon and A Pearce may not recover. Freo aren't exactly stacked with key backs

Posters have been getting excited over players which many have admitted to have only watched a few brief highlight packages.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Emotional attachment is real. It is not wrong but boy do I hope the recruiters don't make their decisions based on it.

Case and point is O'Reilly. Half of this board have him penciled in as a 300 game, 600 goal KPF when in reality nobody (well maybe somebody does) here has any idea if he is actually good or if he will even get to Freo. I know he is not in any of the rankings for u17 players at the moment. Obviously those lists tend to change but 1st round KPFs usually have plenty of hype around them by this stage.

The other one is Ian Hill. I tend to agree that we need him (behind only Lukosius, Rankine or Max King of those I have seen for next year) but not because he is named Hill and is from WA, but because he is a ****ing jet.

Name 1 poster who thinks he'll be a 300 game player who kicks 600 goals?

 

[blue shark]

The area of our list where we most need support is midfield in my opinion closely followed by forward line. Our defense was under pressure last season as a result of our midfield not being good enough, and our backline being young and inexperienced due to a massive restructure. The restructure will continue with the losses of both MJ and Spurr in the coming 1-2 years, however the 2019 components look great to me;

Hughes Hamling Logue
Wilson Pearce Ryan

Cox and Blakely provide decent depth and versatility while Nyhuis and Duman provide emerging depth. I think that defense will meld nicely.

I do anticipate drafting another KPD to the list of someone is available at a decent price late in the draft but I really don't want to use a second top 10 pick on a defender.

In our midfield we have lost both size, contested ball winning and goal kicking over the recent season I think. It is an AFL truism that games are won and lost in the midfield, and this midfield is strong in the midfield, and there is diversity in the types available. If we invest in the midfield we will give ourselves the best chance of building a dominant team.

In addition, one of those midfield types doubles as a forward, and while Fogarty may not become a true KPF, he has actually played in that role, unlike Naughton who at 2 cms taller looms as the most likely "other" tall. The only downside to Fogarty for me is that we are flush with not quite KPF size players, so if he doesn't grow any more than he is now he won't be the ideal height. But I thinking his footballing prowess is in another stratosphere compare to Kersten.

Clearly these discussions are doomed to go round and round for another month.

Crows had the best forward line, decent defenders and still lost. Cats in the nineties beaten twice by a dominant
Eagles midfield, flanke

So if he has the same chance as making it as the other blokes and the consensus is he is not one of the top 5 talents, why do we want him with a top 5 pick?

Why is it that not picking Naughton is having him "slip through our fingers" but that is not a concern with the more fancied players?

Naughton has definately played more games,and at a higher level. You just wonder if others had the same opportunity
They too may have shown more?
Instead we can only judge them against their peer's, limited amount of games.
I have no doubt Naughton will be a player, same as Taylor from Swans, it still doesn't change the facts we need
mids/forwards first.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Emotional attachment is real. It is not wrong but boy do I hope the recruiters don't make their decisions based on it.

Case and point is O'Reilly. Half of this board have him penciled in as a 300 game, 600 goal KPF when in reality nobody (well maybe somebody does) here has any idea if he is actually good or if he will even get to Freo. I know he is not in any of the rankings for u17 players at the moment. Obviously those lists tend to change but 1st round KPFs usually have plenty of hype around them by this stage.

The other one is Ian Hill. I tend to agree that we need him (behind only Lukosius, Rankine or Max King of those I have seen for next year) but not because he is named Hill and is from WA, but because he is a ****ing jet.

O'Reilly is the next Pav and I'll not hear anything to the contrary.

In all seriousness, I think most people just want him for cheap since we've missed out on a father-son by 2 games which kinda sucks.

 

[Unique Name]

Johnson will retire soon and A Pearce may not recover. Freo aren't exactly stacked with key backs

Posters have been getting excited over players which many have admitted to have only watched a few brief highlight packages.

But there are people who have watched all/most of the top prospects this year and none of them have Naughton in the top bracket of players.

 

[meima]

Wow 600 goal KPF . I bloody hope Cam Mac score 40+ next season .

 

[Joao]

Name 1 poster who thinks he'll be a 300 game player who kicks 600 goals?

It was an embellishment I admit, but there is a lot of hype on here for him I don't think anyone can deny.

I am dead serious about the emotional attachment though. It doesn't matter if we the fans do it because we don't make the decisions. It is common on here and understandably so. Its the same reason why I was 100% against Logue last year and will now defend him to the hilt (and have done so on here).

It's why you and I are never going to agree about Naughton. ...unless we draft him of course
There is no logical reason (in my eyes) why we should pick him over about 15 other players.

O'Reilly is the next Pav and I'll not hear anything to the contrary.

In all seriousness, I think most people just want him for cheap since we've missed out on a father-son by 2 games which kinda sucks.

This I can relate too.