Predict the bottom four at the end of 2018

[aussierulesrules]

I didn't think it was a play of the year by Ryder and Gray. It was a simple tap to advantage. It was that your team were completely unorganised and left a gaping hole in your defence for Gray to work in.

The lack of leadership you spoke of cost you the game and probably your chance at playing finals.

Probably, but he's the thing, in that game it wasn't just Riewoldt and Joey that we were missing, but all the top 5 oldest on our list, so hopefully next year we'll get Armo and Gilbert back and we won't be as inexperienced in a similar situation, plus everyone else who played that day will be another year more experienced themselves, so even though it cost us that win, it doesn't mean that we'll make the same mistake, or be as inexperienced overall, next year, which is what this discussion is about.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

If Carlton get off to a bad start, then watch them sprint to the bottom.

We have Richmond, GC, Collingwood, North, WCE (home) and WB in the first 6 weeks.

There is no reason we can't win 4-5 of those games. Our first 10 weeks we usually play our best football before the youngesters tire. I think we'll go 3-3 and after that we'd only need another 3-5 wins to avoid bottom 4.

The loss of Docherty will be hard but he plays an easily replaceable position. Gibbs will hurt the most but the return of Cripps and the addition of Kennedy plus natural development of our youth should be able to cover him.

Think North and GC are the only locks for bottom 4. I personally have Brisbane pushing for the 8. It's hard to tell this early (obviously).

 

[B4Bear]

Will we manage to beat north though?

No

 

[demondavey]

No

Thanks

 

[Xhoquelin]

West Coast simply have a dearth of midfield talent so I think they will really struggle, they'll be competitive like north but I think a few teams could give them an absolute spanking.

North work hard but apart from the automatic four points per match agains the Dee's they seriously lack the quality to finish the job off. I guess they could slightly improve drafting a Cerra or Dow(those two scream future Cunnington for mine) but I'd like to see them be bold with Fogarty or Stephenson, someone with a chance of being an elite player like Tarrant and Brown. They will get slightly better but nothing can account for a simple lack of quality and when the games are close North have too many MacMillans, Waites, Ziebells, Thompsons and not enough class.

Carlton don't have Docherty or Gibbs. Even if they had those two they'd be borderline bottom four IMO because the overall standard of the competition is improving so for however long the Blues stick to that flooding gameplay they're screwed. They got flogged last year mostly when they tried to play real footy and losing Gibbs and Docherty can't help that.

Last one a toss up between Freo and the Suns, Freo have a stronger midfield and Fyfe and Mundy are guys you want in high pressure situations so I back them. It'll be a year of learning for the Suns IMO, would rather see them get 22 games into Bowes, Brodie, Ah Chee etc. and then add their two first round picks next year which will likely be top 10.

Hawks a chance but after round 7 they were a top 8 side and getting Jaeger, Stratton, Frawley, Cyril back can't hurt.

Lions also a chance but I feel they've unearthed some gems in Berry and Mcluggage and whilst they lost Rocky, they didn't even play him as a ball winning midfielder last season which killed many peoples' SuperCoach aspirations. They also play proper footy and will be tougher and more fluid this season imo.

 

[Xhoquelin]

Probably, but he's the thing, in that game it wasn't just Riewoldt and Joey that we were missing, but all the top 5 oldest on our list, so hopefully next year we'll get Armo and Gilbert back and we won't be as inexperienced in a similar situation, plus everyone else who played that day will be another year more experienced themselves, so even though it cost us that win, it doesn't mean that we'll make the same mistake, or be as inexperienced overall, next year, which is what this discussion is about.

Surely Armo and Gilbert aren't best 22 anymore...

 

[The Joker]

I always laugh when a club loses a couple of players that were once stars but spent the last season cooked and contributing absolutely nothing - if anything they were a net negative

And absolute numpties who clearly dont ever watch that club play games point to loss of said former superstar as reason for that clubs demise next year.

Saints arent going down because nick retired.

Eagles arent going down because we lost priddis.

Etc

Geez get a grip.

Plenty of better teams have made the drop the year after playing finals!

2017 - North
2016 - Freo
2015 - Essendon
2014 -
2013 - West Coast**
2012 -
2011 - Bulldogs*
2010 - Brisbane & Essendon
2009 - North
2008 - Port & West Coast
2007 - Melbourne & Bulldogs
2006 - North
2005 - Essendon
2004 - Collingwood
2003 - Melbourne
2002 - Carlton & Richmond
2001 - North
2000 - Port & West Coast


* bottom 5 with the addition of The Suns
** bottom 6 with the addition of The Giants

 

[aussierulesrules]

Surely Armo and Gilbert aren't best 22 anymore...

With Armo it will all depend on whether he's able to get back to full fitness and form again or not. Two years ago he trimmed down several kgs, got much fitter and had by far his best season (2nd in the B&F and leading disposals in the comp up to R14), but then he missed most of the following preseason with a back injury and didn't reach the same heights the following season, as a result, and then this year he played just the two games, due to the groin issues that wouldn't go away.

So if he's able to have a full preseason and get right back to his best or near enough to it, I imagine he would definitely be best 22 still, but it remains to be seen if his body allows that to happen. He was told that he has the back "of a 50-70yo" or something along those lines, so that doesn't help!

Could be that he and Koby Stevens are fighting for the one spot, but unless Koby gets more consistent then I'd still give Armo the nod if fully fit and in form.

As for Gilbert, well he just had his best season since he was at his best in 2009/2010 (after a lot of injuries between 2011-2015) and he started playing the all important back-up ruck role for a lot of it, so unless his form drops off, I imagine he'll still be in there, but hopefully the likes of Brandon White start putting real pressure on him.

He's extremely handy, due to the fact he can play tall and small, back or forward, inside or out, is one of the quickest in the team, is experienced and very team-orientated and one of the best tacklers. There's a reason he hasn't been dropped in probably 10 years, but I can understand why those that don't watch him closely don't understand that.

 

[Xhoquelin]

With Armo it will all depend on whether he's able to get back to full fitness and form again or not. Two years ago he trimmed down several kgs, got much fitter and had by far his best season (2nd in the B&F and leading disposals in the comp up to R14), but then he missed most of the following preseason with a back injury and didn't reach the same heights the following season, as a result, and then this year he played just the two games, due to the groin issues that wouldn't go away.

So if he's able to have a full preseason and get right back to his best or near enough to it, I imagine he would definitely be best 22 still, but it remains to be seen if his body allows that to happen. He was told that he has the back "of a 50-70yo" or something along those lines, so that doesn't help!

Could be that he and Koby Stevens are fighting for the one spot, but unless Koby gets more consistent then I'd still give Armo the nod if fully fit and in form.

As for Gilbert, well he just had his best season since he was at his best in 2009/2010 (after a lot of injuries between 2011-2015) and he started playing the all important back-up ruck role for a lot of it, so unless his form drops off, I imagine he'll still be in there, but hopefully the likes of Brandon White start putting real pressure on him.

He's extremely handy, due to the fact he can play tall and small, back or forward, inside or out, is one of the quickest in the team, is experienced and very team-orientated and one of the best tacklers. There's a reason he hasn't been dropped in probably 10 years, but I can understand why those that don't watch him closely don't understand that.

I actually like Gilbert as a player but he's just not going to be a part of your next flag. He's clearly a B grade player and someone that every club would appreciate for his work ethic, but you need to move on from him sooner rather than later. Ditto for us with Vince and Lewis, those two still play good footy but have to be moved on by the end of this year IMO. Seeing as you guys have White, Mckenzie, Webster, Goddard all pushing for spots in that backline I would've thought Gilbert was more expendable.
And as for Armo I feel Steven was the more influential player in 2015, Armo's accumulating relied on his endurance and he wasn't as damaging as Steven. I think Seb Ross has started to win the disposals that Armo won in 2015 and I think that's for the better, again, Armo is valuable for his experience but from a footballing sense I think you'd hope Dunstan and Acres and Billings would be firmly best 22 as midfielders and Freeman would be pushing for that 22nd spot instead of Armitage.

Anyway, lots of respect for those two, two of the hardest workers in the AFL who've managed to get elite seasons out of their bodies in the past, and thus are highly regarded inside the club. Armo probably a bit similar to our Nate Jones in that regard but Jonesy has been elite since 2014 while Armo has only really had one elite season in 2015.

 

[kranky al]

Plenty of better teams have made the drop the year after playing finals!

2017 - North
2016 - Freo
2015 - Essendon
2014 -
2013 - West Coast**
2012 -
2011 - Bulldogs*
2010 - Brisbane & Essendon
2009 - North
2008 - Port & West Coast
2007 - Melbourne & Bulldogs
2006 - North
2005 - Essendon
2004 - Collingwood
2003 - Melbourne
2002 - Carlton & Richmond
2001 - North
2000 - Port & West Coast


* bottom 5 with the addition of The Suns
** bottom 6 with the addition of The Giants

Thats not the point - theres a really good chance we might miss finals this year but it wont be because priddis has left

He was cooked this year - was a net negative for the year.

 

[Percel]

After watching the IR matches, Freo will finish top 2.

Beautiful to watch.

 

[Randomizor]

After watching the IR matches, Freo will finish top 2.

Beautiful to watch.

Haha doubtful. I do think a fit Fyfe might be worth an extra win or two for us this year though. I’m more confident we won’t finish bottom 4 at least.

 

[MightyTiger]

West Coast
Brisbane
North
Gold Coast

 

[Coaster2012]

Usually the top 4 is harder to pick, a surprise team will always jump up, but the bottom 4, usually doesn't see a team that suddenly drops off a cliff that isn't expected. The poll pretty much sums it up.

West Coast
Brisbane
North
Gold Coast

There's no way WC's spine is finishing bottom 4. Not saying we are playing finals, but a bottom 4 with NN returning would be very surprising and likely cost Simmo his job.

 

[MightyTiger]

Usually the top 4 is harder to pick, a surprise team will always jump up, but the bottom 4, usually doesn't see a team that suddenly drops off a cliff that isn't expected. The poll pretty much sums it up.



There's no way WC's spine is finishing bottom 4. Not saying we are playing finals, but a bottom 4 with NN returning would be very surprising and likely cost Simmo his job.

You also probably have the worst midfield in the competition.

 

[Coaster2012]

You also probably have the worst midfield in the competition.

A very simple analysis that doesn't take into account any other metric i.e our AA defence, our AA forward or one of the best rucks in the game tapping it to our mids. They aren't an amazing midfield, but they still have Shuey, Gaff, and Yeo who will likely run through it, who aren't a bad set of players. I suspect you have bought into the fact that losing Priddis and Mitchell is a massive hit, and haven't looked deeper.

 

[MightyTiger]

A very simple analysis that doesn't take into account any other metric i.e our AA defence, our AA forward or one of the best rucks in the game tapping it to our mids. They aren't an amazing midfield, but they still have Shuey, Gaff, and Yeo who will likely run through it, who aren't a bad set of players. I suspect you have bought into the fact that losing Priddis and Mitchell is a massive hit, and haven't looked deeper.

Big expectations on a player who hasn't played for the best part of two years, Gaff and Shuey are outside runners and Yeo is a utility, big expectations on a few players to step up and fill the void of your departing players, Redden is as vanilla as they come, I just don't think the Eagles have the engine as good as other teams.

 

[Quinz]

Big expectations on a player who hasn't played for the best part of two years, Gaff and Shuey are outside runners and Yeo is a utility, big expectations on a few players to step up and fill the void of your departing players, Redden is as vanilla as they come, I just don't think the Eagles have the engine as good as other teams.

Shuey is a clearance heavy inside mid who breaks lines. Hes not remotely an outside runner like Gaff.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I actually like Gilbert as a player but he's just not going to be a part of your next flag. He's clearly a B grade player and someone that every club would appreciate for his work ethic, but you need to move on from him sooner rather than later. Ditto for us with Vince and Lewis, those two still play good footy but have to be moved on by the end of this year IMO. Seeing as you guys have White, Mckenzie, Webster, Goddard all pushing for spots in that backline I would've thought Gilbert was more expendable.
And as for Armo I feel Steven was the more influential player in 2015, Armo's accumulating relied on his endurance and he wasn't as damaging as Steven. I think Seb Ross has started to win the disposals that Armo won in 3@25 and I think that's for the better, again, Armo is valuable for his experience but from a footballing sense I think you'd hope Dunstan and Acres and Billings would be firmly best 22 as midfielders and Freeman would be pushing for that 22nd spot instead of Armitage.

Anyway, lots of respect for those two, two of the hardest workers in the AFL who've managed to get elite seasons out of their bodies in the past, and thus are highly regarded inside the club. Armo probably a bit similar to our Nate Jones in that regard but Jonesy has been elite since 2014 while Armo has only really had one elite season in 2015.

Top post, hard to argue much with any of that and by all means those two could very easily be under real pressure to keep, or in Armo's case win back their spots next season. As could Nathan Brown, with hopefully Goddard and Austin breathing down his neck. Feel like we need to move past him ASAP, with the way the game is played these days.

The thing that made Dave so much better in 2015 than years past was that he finally had the endurance to get out of the packs and that enabled him to win outside ball and link up for the first time in his career, but Seb has definitely taken over that role in the last year or two, so that will make it harder for Dave to get back in. He hits the scoreboard much more than Seb tho, so could also rotate forward.

He's still also been our best performed as far as winning CP's and clearances in recent years, but you'd think with another preseason under their belts the likes of Steele and Dunstan might be ready to at least match him there, so they along with Koby could keep him out if he's not close to his very best, and we surely need to start getting Acres in that area more. He had 28 disposals in the last 3 quarters of our game against West Coast late in the year (after being moved up to the wing about 20 mins into the 2nd quarter), and in our 2nd-last game he had 15 disposals in a quarter, once moved into the guts for the last quarter (for about the first time all year). Only a matter of time before he's racking up very big numbers IMO, but he won't do that playing mostly forward.

As for Gilbo's spot, Webster has been best 22 for basically the last 3 years now (two top 10 B&F finishes and this year was top 3 or something for the first several rounds, pre-injury) and I suspect McKenzie is not up to it (except to possibly replace Geary, in time, but so could Rice), but Brandon White is the one who made us all sit up and take notice when he played late in the year.

Looked like he'd been playing for 10 years and he has so many of the attributes you'd want in a "general defender" (speed, height, agility, intercept marking, lethal and long left peg, competitiveness, etc). We're also being very strongly linked to Nick Coffield in the draft and he's another of those 190cm-ish "general defenders", so if we get him, he and White could have Gilbo well and truly looking over his shoulder very soon.

Having already lost Fisher, Dempster and now Roo and Montagna in the last 12 months, we need to be careful not to move the others with a lot of experience out too soon though, so it's a balancing act. We're already the 4th-least experienced list in the comp, so if we left out a couple of our most experienced we'd possibly be putting out the least experienced team in the comp, which is not ideal when you're pressing for finals.

 

[masai]

A very simple analysis that doesn't take into account any other metric i.e our AA defence, our AA forward or one of the best rucks in the game tapping it to our mids. They aren't an amazing midfield, but they still have Shuey, Gaff, and Yeo who will likely run through it, who aren't a bad set of players. I suspect you have bought into the fact that losing Priddis and Mitchell is a massive hit, and haven't looked deeper.

Please remember that NicNat is returning from a major injury lay off, as good as you think he is, it will take a while for him to get 100% confidence in his body. Having just watched Nat Fyfe return from injury disruption, supporters need to show a bit of patience with their expectations of players returning from major injuries, especially a knee injury for a ruckman.

Eagles will probably not be in the bottom 4, more likely 10 - 12.

 

[TheKanga]

We will be more competitive than most neutrals think.

 

[SHill Shall]

Shuey is a clearance heavy inside mid who breaks lines. Hes not remotely an outside runner like Gaff.

Agree - although Shuey still has considerably more uncontested than contested possessions despite his clearance ability. The comp’s elite inside mids generally have more contested possessions or at worst are 50/50. Maybe that will naturally balance up with Priddis out of the way?

 

[getgaff]

Carlton, North, Brisbane and Gold Coast the 4.

Hope to see some real improvement in the Suns under Dew but think it’ll take more than 12 months to happen

 

[Hap Hapablap]

brisbane carlton gold coast and north melbourne.

 

[Hap Hapablap]

are you guys going on the basis of the loss of priddis who was not influential at all this season and mitchell who we only had for a year as the reason wce will go down?

priddis has been the least influencial midfielder in our team for some time. im glad weve seen the back of him now there are many unknowns ahead but we still have a midfield better than norths carlton and gc.

im bookmarking this thread. will gloat next year. thats how confident i am that wce wont suffer without priddis. we performed even better without him.