Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[PA88]

Call me pessimistic but after we went 3-0 I looked at our draw up to the Shanghai game and thought 'shit, we might not win in Australia again until after the bye'.

Essendon at Etihad was always going to be tough because it was against a decent team at a ground we play poorly. 3-1.

Geelong we never beat anywhere. 3-2.

North are nowhere near as bad as people think and play Etihad as well as we play it badly. 3-3?

West Coast at Optus, forget about it. 3-4?

The Crows. Hmm. 3-5?

I think we're pushing it uphill to play finals this year. The first two rounds were great but the Brisbane loss raised huge question marks and the last two weeks have really underlined those question marks. Just not feeling it unfortunately. We're a 10-12 at worst, 12-10 at best type team.

And this is all based on who we've been for the past few years but is likely to play out the way you've said it. It's insane.

 

[Janus]

As we filed down from the western stand, there is a second balcony area at the bottom of that tier where Kochie, KT and the board sit.

Kochie was standing, hands in pockets, gazing with a dumbfounded look across the ground.

Cardone, Ransom, KT, Osborne were there too with long faces - the type that you see when someone has been told they just won X Lotto, then remembered they threw the ticket out in the trash last week!

Boy. Did they look totally disillusioned.

A penny for their thoughts............................................................................

The sort of look that someone would have when they realise that we've got to go to Etihad next week, can't make many changes to the side because of the ANZAC Day match on Wednesday, then the glorious fixture taking us to play West Coast in Perth before having to play Adelaide before going to Shanghai?

The sort of look that someone would have when they've been told that one of their prime bulls will be suspended by the AFL because he got drunk and acted inappropriately towards a member of the public?

I'd have a long face too.

 

[*PAF]

The sort of look that someone would have when they realise that we've got to go to Etihad next week, can't make many changes to the side because of the ANZAC Day match on Wednesday, then the glorious fixture taking us to play West Coast in Perth before having to play Adelaide before going to Shanghai?

The sort of look that someone would have when they've been told that one of their prime bulls will be suspended by the AFL because he got drunk and acted inappropriately towards a member of the public?

I'd have a long face too.

Or perhaps it wasn't anything as complicated as that and more one of wtf was that?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Sam Gray is most certainly talented and premiership teams like Hawthorn have included less talented players.

It's just that we tend to muck up on mass way too often and that makes the **** ups stand out more than they should.

Name which forwards or midfielders have played for Hawthorn for most of the season and stayed in their team during finals and less talented than Sam? Cyril, Breaust, Puopolou, smith, Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Hill etc. These were first 12 to 15 picked like Gray is. You can't compare him to ruckmen or defenders whose jobs are different and require a different skill set.

Sam isn't the only problem but he just highlights how bare the cupboard is to high end skills.

 

[*PAF]

This will go down the path of debating by example where for each example there will be a counter example.
Puopolou is probably the closest player wrt style. At Hawthorn he has a role. If he was playing for us he would probably be one of the players that would go in and out of the team as we would play him all over the place and then say he is unreliable.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Nicks praising Geelong.
Teams like Geelong, Hawks (even the Crows to some degree) they win those Premierships, they create a Dynasty, they build memberships, they build leaders, they create belief, they teach and pass it on to the young fellas.
It permeates throughout the club, this winning culture. You never really bottom out again. You keep bringing in pllayers and teaching them your way, led by your leaders.
Our current demise can be traced back to the early 2000s.
We stuffed up after 2004. We missed the boat. And 2007 was the nail in the coffin. (The lions stuffed up too(in a non footy State though)
Now trying to build and find that winning culture is bloody hard, it's like pushing s*** uphill and right now feels almost impossible.

 

[Macca19]

Name which forwards or midfielders have played for Hawthorn for most of the season and stayed in their team during finals and less talented than Sam? Cyril, Breaust, Puopolou, smith, Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Hill etc. These were first 12 to 15 picked like Gray is. You can't compare him to ruckmen or defenders whose jobs are different and require a different skill set.

Sam isn't the only problem but he just highlights how bare the cupboard is to high end skills.

Jonathan Simpkin would be one.

 

[*PAF]

Jonathan Simpkin would be one.

Ah those names. I misread his post.

All we need to do is look at all the KPFs and rucks that got games, plus we are talking about during the year to keep the structure in place.

EDIT: Now I think I have two debates confused.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Jonathan Simpkin would be one.

Simpkin lucked out being in the right place at the right time in 2013. Had a great VFL GF and replaced Whitecross who did his knee in the PF. He wasn't a first 12 or 15 picked by the coach, had plenty of other highly skilled players in the team and in 2014 he got dumped for the GF for Cyril. He was a substitute player for 10 games or so, ie a marginal player at best, compared to Sam being a lock player.

You said it yourself a couple of times, Sam doesn't have AFL standard skills and in one rant after a loss, you said he never will.

 

[Macca19]

Simpkin lucked out being in the right place at the right time in 2013. Had a great VFL GF and replaced Whitecross who did his knee in the PF. He wasn't a first 12 or 15 picked by the coach, had plenty of other highly skilled players in the team and in 2014 he got dumped for the GF for Cyril. He was a substitute player for 10 games or so, ie a marginal player at best, compared to Sam being a lock player.

You said it yourself a couple of times, Sam doesn't have AFL standard skills and in one rant after a loss, you said he never will.

I agree. Hes a battler. He tries hard, runs hard but will never have the polish required.

 

[PatientMental]

Jonathan Simpkin would be one.

Will Langford as well.

 

[Interstater]

Sam does have something many players don't though.
He has the knowledge that he will likely have to look Port Adelaide people in the eye for the rest of his life.

People underestimate that.

Personally I love having Sam in the side, he is the Jared Poulton that kicks the winning goal vs Sydney.
Nothing would make me happier than Sam kicking the winning goal in a GF.

 

[Macca19]

Nothing would make me happier than Sam kicking the winning goal in a GF.

Me too. Unfortunately i'd only be able to see a replay of it as I feel I would faint from distress seeing Sam Gray lining up for goal when the siren goes to win us a premiership.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I don't want to turn this in to a highjack, but I'd have S Gray over Poppy

 

[Vagabond0]

Two losses down, can only afford another 4 for the year if we're to make top 4 and guarantee a home final beyond the first week.

Obviously on current form not going to happen and way we're moving the ball into our 50 little chance we'd win a home final anyway.

3-2 reminds me of 2015, still believe our current squad is better on paper, question is will we get the most out of them....

 

[RossFC]

My worry is that we hit the trade window hard again next year and the year after and then we will be ****ed for so long. Doesn't matter how good our team is you can't win a premiership with a coach with no tactical intelligence or balls

For me it's not about being f'd for so long it's that the core group of experienced players (Boak, Robbie Gray, Dixon, Ryder, Hartlett, Ebert, Hoff, Pittard etc) will never experience a good amount of success (top 4 and/or a flag). A wasted generation of the list.

Feels like that's slipping away and we have to move towards the era of Wines, Wingard, SPP, Howard, Marshall etc.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Nothing would make me happier than Sam kicking the winning goal in a GF.

Rainbow fairyland stuff

 

[Beats28772]

If Collingwood win on ANZAC Day we’ll more than likely be 9th. How demoralizing after all the hype in off season

 

[Andre]

If Collingwood win on ANZAC Day we’ll more than likely be 9th. How demoralizing after all the hype in off season

In the grand scheme of a season 8th or 9th now isn’t going to make a difference on games required to make finals, but it would be better for some pressure from the media on selections.

 

[GremioPower]

Watts can't kick a ****en football properly. That's a lack of talent.

He can't handle pressure; which is another matter entirely.

 

[PAFC66]

He can't handle pressure; which is another matter entirely.

We knew that coming in? these decisions will ultimately cost Ken his job.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

What we need is a machine type player. You know 20 out of the 22 weeks they are going to get it 30 times and going to contribute when the going gets tough and use the footy well. Like Ablett, Goodes, Swan, Pendlebury, Fyfe,Judd, Bartel, Sam and Tom Mitchell, Selwood, Priduss, Josh Kennedy, Dangerfield, Martin, etc. Now most of these guys won a brownlow and probably for good reasons. You try and limit them as an opposition but you can't stop them.

Robbie in 2014 and most of 2015 he played like this. To be a top 4 team we have to find this sort of player as he anchors our team and helps us get enough wins in those close games against top sides. I have been hoping Ollie becomes that player but I don't know if he will.

 

[GremioPower]

Just a cotton-pickin-minute, It's me who's usually the Pollyanna on this board.

There is always an upper-side to anything. It is good to highlight those when all seem to be doom and gloom.

Still, old habits die hard, and both players and coaches are strugling to adapt to the changes they know are necessary. That's why we are still slow on the field, because we need to think before we act: "For I do not do the good that I want to do, but the evil I do not want to do." (Paul of Tarsus)

This part of the season is when we work to figure those things out. That's why the fewer changes the better. Until the bye, no unforced changes. I just need to point to Barry-for-Amon as evidence.

We are here for the long run. Let's fasten our seatbelts tight and keep enjoying the roller-coaster ride. Going for another metaphor, the storm shall end, and if we manage to pass through it, we will be in good shape for the rest of the journey.

 

[GremioPower]

We knew that coming in? these decisions will ultimately cost Ken his job.

We certainly did. He came to play in a supporting role.

If I am not mistaken, we thought that surrounded by Dixon, Gray, Wingard, Ebert, Wines, Boak, Marshall, etc., he would feel fewer pressure, more comfortable, and his confidence would improve. It is too soon to know whether the gamble paid off or not.

 

[GremioPower]

What we need is a machine type player. You know 20 out of the 22 weeks they are going to get it 30 times and going to contribute when the going gets tough and use the footy well. Like Ablett, Goodes, Swan, Pendlebury, Fyfe,Judd, Bartel, Sam and Tom Mitchell, Selwood, Priduss, Josh Kennedy, Dangerfield, Martin, etc. Now most of these guys won a brownlow and probably for good reasons. You try and limit them as an opposition but you can't stop them.

Robbie in 2014 and most of 2015 he played like this. To be a top 4 team we have to find this sort of player as he anchors our team and helps us get enough wins in those close games against top sides. I have been hoping Ollie becomes that player but I don't know if he will.

I frankly believe that our newcomers were supposed to help Robbie, Wines, and Wingard to become or getting closer to become that sort of player; while Rockliff could actually be one. Rockliff not being ready from the get-go was bad. When we lost Ryder, however, it became REALLY bad.

Correct me if I am wrong, but for 2018, our main:
a) forward line was supposed to be Dixon, Watts, and Marshall; and
b) midfield was supposed to be Ryder, Rockliff, Ebert, SPP.

Without Ryder, Rockliff's ability to win the contest would have come in hand; but that wasn't an option. So, when we tried to fix the midfield, it costed us either the forward line, the back line, or both.

Against Geelong, we didn't have Marshall, Ryder, Rockliff, and SPP. This means that were basically the 2017 Port with a worse midlfield. Meanwhile, players are trying to adjust for a change in the way we move forward. Under pressure, we saw them either reverting to 2017 kicking-to-the-pocket, hailmarying the ball into the F50 (regardless of whom was there), rushing the play, or slowing down to avoid those mistakes - which is a mistake in itself.

In brief, we saw NOTHING that was supposed to happen in 2018. No surprise, everyone has a feeling of déjà vu.