Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[BrisbaneCFC]

So how many A graders do we have on the list? 2-3? How many years are you happy to spend bottom four without enough numbers in the proven class category?

Marchbank good intercept player - but far away from All Australian selection in the backline. Maybe in 2-3 years
Pickett - nope
Kennedy - nope
Murphy is A grade but like Simmo wont be around in five years
Byrne is not anywhere near being a top 10 in B & F let alone AA squad.

We just dont have the cattle to win games and this list needs class on every line.

Gee, aren't you a barrel of positivity about Carlton Football Club and our players.

 

[Arr0w]

Agree that playing with cripps would be a big selling point. But in the end it probably comes down to the coach. "Who has the ability to take me and the list" towards a premiership. We know that Hawthorn does, and, we should begrudgingly admit that North do. I dont think the saints do. Does Bolton? I say that he does, but it will be wines and his manager's perception of BB that will count

North? Before long that ship will titanic

 

[BluesRule]

The problem is, the more clubs you add to what I'm terming the "priority round" the more you dilute the benefit to the lower clubs and the more you penalise the top few.

Bottom 6 in priority round means the wooden spooner gets 1 and 7, while the premiers get 24.
Bottom 14 in priority round means the wooden spooner gets 1 and 15, while the premiers get 32.

Ideally, I think you want it to be few enough clubs that they actually get a genuine benefit from it, but enough clubs that tanking for it becomes unattractive.

8-10 is the sweet spot for that.

10 teams means it's whoever misses out on finals. Not a bad thing. You play finals, good for you. You don't, here's a draft concession.

8 teams means you might get a scenario where a team considers throwing the last round, if they're 10th on the ladder and can't mathematically make finals. But history shows that, more often than not, the teams sitting 9th and 10th miss out by one game, or percentage - so they should theoretically be fighting for finals til the end.


Again - not a perfect system I'm sure. But it's definitely a system worth exploring a bit.

The only other thing I've been able to think of is the AFL paying a loading on top of Free Agency contracts for bottom teams - like what they're talking about for Lynch. Ie. If a free agent goes to a bottom 6 side, the AFL pays them an additional 20% of their contract value each year. Makes those bottom teams a more attractive option without shutting out the top sides who can still sell "success". Not sure that does enough by itself though.

The success of Sydney, Adelaide, Richmond and Hawthorn in turning late picks/rookies into AFL players shows this is not going to equalise things. Just gives Hawks/Sydney more $$$ to lure the talent they really need as the rookies/low end role players are cheap. We have done well with Williamson, JSOS, Macreadie, Polson, etc. as late picks and previous had great rookies like Eddie Betts, Garlett, Jamo, etc,

We need to better develop what we get to create value in our list and stop looking for a shortcut as draft order changes/extra picks will not be implemented by the AFL till we are on the up anyway.

 

[Soapy V]

North? Before long that ship will titanic

North are doing okay at the moment but they won't win a flag and don't have a lot of youngsters coming through. Being held up by some talented senior players of which some only have a year or two left. IMO caught in no mans land

 

[katmanblue]

Is there any reason we missed out on acquiring Gaff as well?

Lazy i guess.

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[passmark]

Hopefully they would go better than our previous west perth players in:
Josh Donaldson
Troy Longmuir
Suitcase Browne

Irrelevant.

Don't see any state reps, club fairest and best or Sandover medalists in that list.

Browne won a flag at West Perth and that's about it.

 

[Arr0w]

North are doing okay at the moment but they won't win a flag and don't have a lot of youngsters coming through. Being held up by some talented senior players of which some only have a year or two left. IMO caught in no mans land

I agree, they have suffered zero outs to best 22 and if they want to remain relevant, they need to attract a couple of big fish, Wines etc

 

[BigFrizz36]

We aren't getting Wines.. if he decided to leave..why would he choose us??

carlton supporter and great uncle (clinten wines) previous carlton premiership player??

 

[Jeremias]

I agree, they have suffered zero outs to best 22 and if they want to remain relevant, they need to attract a couple of big fish, Wines etc

Wines will stay, but even if he did leave, can't see him landing at North.

Can't see the attraction for a big name player to go there - and as we saw last year, money isn't everything.

 

[Soapy V]

Gee, aren't you a barrel of positivity about Carlton Football Club and our players.

Beat me to it BFC.

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade
Marchbank will be a star
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time
Dow will be elite. No doubt
Charlie will be elite. No doubt
Weitering will be elite. No doubt
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component
McKay has talent it's just time
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling
TDK has something special
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills
Polson is smart and underestimated
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief

IMO the talent on our list is there. It's as good as I have ever seen (including GWS). It's just time.

So many people have short term thinking and judge on such a small sample. 2018 was always going to be a struggle and injuries have made it much worse. This is the pinnacle and even for seasoned players they need to be fit and in good sides. It's not easy and for "kids" its even harder. 2019 will be a big improvement but it won't be until 2020 when we see the real results. Even then that is a quick improvement.

It's all positive. Go Blues

 

[Soapy V]

I agree, they have suffered zero outs to best 22 and if they want to remain relevant, they need to attract a couple of big fish, Wines etc

Need more young talent as well. These days Injuries mean so much. Interesting that the top sides these years have had the least injuries to key players. We have had close to the worst and with a young list. A fit Murphy Kennedy Kruezer Marchbank Docherty Lang all year and IMO the results would have been a lot different

 

[MasterBlue]

carlton supporter and great uncle (clinten wines) previous carlton premiership player??

Wines is best mates with Viney, I think Melbourne would be favoured if he was to leave.

 

[F_therest]

North are doing okay at the moment but they won't win a flag and don't have a lot of youngsters coming through. Being held up by some talented senior players of which some only have a year or two left. IMO caught in no mans land

I agree to an extent, but the player movement landscape of today, plus being able to trade future picks, allows clubs to rise in other ways.

We know they have money from their offers last year...they COULD get a gaff as a FA and then trade in a Josh Kelly type and suddenly they are a premiership threat next year.

Unlikely to happen but these days it can be done, unlike back when barely any players moved clubs you would see clubs go up and down the ladder more cyclical.

 

[Arr0w]

Need more young talent as well. These days Injuries mean so much. Interesting that the top sides these years have had the least injuries to key players. We have had close to the worst and with a young list. A fit Murphy Kennedy Kruezer Marchbank Docherty Lang all year and IMO the results would have been a lot different

Counter that with the Lions having a reasonably injury free list until Cameron.

Going on record now, not that i give a stuff, but the media will soon change their tune, as will our negatively minded supporters

 

[F_therest]

Wines will stay, but even if he did leave, can't see him landing at North.

Can't see the attraction for a big name player to go there - and as we saw last year, money isn't everything.

I reckon Brad Scott is a good coach...north are playing a good brand of footy...tough but they can score heavily.

That would be pretty attractive...plus the money they'd throw at an A grader.

 

[norway blue]

Wines is best mates with Viney, I think Melbourne would be favoured if he was to leave.

Conversely what better way to challenge yourself going up against your mate.


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[HARKER]

Beat me to it BFC.

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade
Marchbank will be a star
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time
Dow will be elite. No doubt
Charlie will be elite. No doubt
Weitering will be elite. No doubt
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component
McKay has talent it's just time
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling
TDK has something special
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills
Polson is smart and underestimated
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief

IMO the talent on our list is there. It's as good as I have ever seen (including GWS). It's just time.

So many people have short term thinking and judge on such a small sample. 2018 was always going to be a struggle and injuries have made it much worse. This is the pinnacle and even for seasoned players they need to be fit and in good sides. It's not easy and for "kids" its even harder. 2019 will be a big improvement but it won't be until 2020 when we see the real results. Even then that is a quick improvement.

It's all positive. Go Blues

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade. Never an A-Grader. A-Grade highlights but unlikely to be an everyday performer
Marchbank will be a star. Could become an A-Grader
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit. Just needs to get fit and just needs to fit. A goof cog in the right system.
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL. Agree. Shame about the body, to date.
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey. Possible. Would be the best outcome.

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time. May not get that time. Could be super-ceded very quickly.
Dow will be elite. No doubt. A possible A-Grader, yes.
Charlie will be elite. No doubt. No doubt.
Weitering will be elite. No doubt. Could be, may not become. Would settle for an A- right now.
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season. Agree.
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component. Agree.
McKay has talent it's just time. Has talent. Has time. Has the will to succeed? I think he does, but not all have.
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player. Agree.
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling. Huge doubts on that coming about.
TDK has something special. Agree
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite. Agree. Can't wait to see him with Docherty next year.
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills. Agree.
Polson is smart and underestimated. Best 22 estimated? May depend on our ability to reel in FA's and do some good trading.
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent. Has the opportunity, but injuries hurt him this year. Will he get another? Likely.
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player. Could be a very good role player. need more talent around him to make him better.
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief. Needs something, but does have time on his side.


Not quite as optimistic, but optimistic enough.

 

[Jeremias]

I reckon Brad Scott is a good coach...north are playing a good brand of footy...tough but they can score heavily.

That would be pretty attractive...plus the money they'd throw at an A grader.

They've done a lot better than most expected this year, I'll give them that.

But I'm not yet convinced they're anything more than an average side who have been able to keep most of their best side on the park - and that counts for plenty with the competition poised as it is currently.

North are a small club and I reckon they're carving out a place for themselves in no mans land. Good luck to them but if I'm an A grader at an interstate club looking to come home, they're well down on my list of clubs to look at seriously. Money could be a factor, but as we saw with them last year, there's more to it than that.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

North are a funny one because all of Larkey, McKay, Durdin, Ahern, Clarke, Hibberd, Pruess Even Walker looked bloody good and are preforming as well as our kids at the lower level (most actually a lot better) and would have had a lot more games at our club but they can't force their way into their side. That's not even counting LDU who if he was on our list we would be calling a possible A grader.
They also probably have just as much money as us for FA's and if they get lucky they could get two top ten pick players in this draft so they could have a better hand than us this off season.

 

[Soapy V]

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade. Never an A-Grader. A-Grade highlights but unlikely to be an everyday performer
Marchbank will be a star. Could become an A-Grader
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit. Just needs to get fit and just needs to fit. A goof cog in the right system.
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL. Agree. Shame about the body, to date.
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey. Possible. Would be the best outcome.

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time. May not get that time. Could be super-ceded very quickly.
Dow will be elite. No doubt. A possible A-Grader, yes.
Charlie will be elite. No doubt. No doubt.
Weitering will be elite. No doubt. Could be, may not become. Would settle for an A- right now.
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season. Agree.
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component. Agree.
McKay has talent it's just time. Has talent. Has time. Has the will to succeed? I think he does, but not all have.
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player. Agree.
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling. Huge doubts on that coming about.
TDK has something special. Agree
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite. Agree. Can't wait to see him with Docherty next year.
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills. Agree.
Polson is smart and underestimated. Best 22 estimated? May depend on our ability to reel in FA's and do some good trading.
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent. Has the opportunity, but injuries hurt him this year. Will he get another? Likely.
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player. Could be a very good role player. need more talent around him to make him better.
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief. Needs something, but does have time on his side.


Not quite as optimistic, but optimistic enough.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

They've done a lot better than most expected this year, I'll give them that.

But I'm not yet convinced they're anything more than an average side who have been able to keep most of their best side on the park - and that counts for plenty with the competition poised as it is currently.

North are a small club and I reckon they're carving out a place for themselves in no mans land. Good luck to them but if I'm an A grader at an interstate club looking to come home, they're well down on my list of clubs to look at seriously. Money could be a factor, but as we saw with them last year, there's more to it than that.

Melbourne are a small club but if you are good players will come. That's how they got Dal Santo, Higgins, Waite.
Last year they went for a couple of the best players in the league when they were the fourth worst side. If they can manage to win a final this year they will find it a lot easier. The funny thing is if you add Martin and Kelly into that side and they a premiership favourites ATM.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade. Never an A-Grader. A-Grade highlights but unlikely to be an everyday performer Doesn't need to be - I'll settle for once a week
Marchbank will be a star. Could become an A-Grader Agreed
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit. Just needs to get fit and just needs to fit. A goof cog in the right system.
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL. Agree. Shame about the body, to date.
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey. Possible. Would be the best outcome.

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time. May not get that time. Could be super-ceded very quickly. I hope he makes it. Seems to have gone backwards from last year. I like Bolts' as a developer but would rather a one-way running offensive weapon than an average 2-way dude.
Dow will be elite. No doubt. A possible A-Grader, yes.
Charlie will be elite. No doubt. No doubt.
Weitering will be elite. No doubt. Could be, may not become. Would settle for an A- right now.
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season. Agree.
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component. Agree. What's the doubt on him? He has heaps of talent! Quick, huge kick, ferocious tackler. I see him becoming like Daniel Kerr. He's in his bloody second year!
McKay has talent it's just time. Has talent. Has time. Has the will to succeed? I think he does, but not all have.
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player. Agree.
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling. Huge doubts on that coming about.
TDK has something special. Agree
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite. Agree. Can't wait to see him with Docherty next year.
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills. Agree.
Polson is smart and underestimated. Best 22 estimated? May depend on our ability to reel in FA's and do some good trading.
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent. Has the opportunity, but injuries hurt him this year. Will he get another? Likely.
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player. Could be a very good role player. need more talent around him to make him better.
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief. Needs something, but does have time on his side.


Not quite as optimistic, but optimistic enough.

 

[HARKER]

What? That's good, isn't it?

Look at it this way; We could load up with another 8 quality players in the next two years via draft/FA's and trades.
Can't fit everyone in and some just won't make it. It's nigh on impossible for them all to make it..........now........what about Schumacher?

 

[Soapy V]

What? That's good, isn't it?

Look at it this way; We could load up with another 8 quality players in the next two years via draft/FA's and trades.
Can't fit everyone in and some just won't make it. It's nigh on impossible for them all to make it..........now........what about Schumacher?

It's good. Schumacher I rate but didn't want to go overboard

 

[ParapMarkets]

Beat me to it BFC.

Pickett has elite talent and once he gets going will be A grade
Marchbank will be a star
Kennedy is a damn good player. Just needs to get fit
Byrne has talent just needs his body to handle AFL
Murphy could play another 2-3 years as a gun small forward ala Brent Harvey

then there is

Cuningham has talent it's just time
Dow will be elite. No doubt
Charlie will be elite. No doubt
Weitering will be elite. No doubt
SPS will be elite. No doubt just needs a pre season
Fisher will be an underrated player. 200 game vital component
McKay has talent it's just time
O'Brien is young but has the work ethic and skills. Will be a player
Kerr is underrated and IMO will be a very good player ala Darling
TDK has something special
Macreadie just needs to get fit. Incredible reader of ball coming in and body positioning is elite
Williamson has poise of a 200 game player and elite skills
Polson is smart and underestimated
If LeBois can get fit he will surprise many. Freakish talent
Silvagni will find his way. Very good player
Garlett has elite talent just needs confidence and belief

IMO the talent on our list is there. It's as good as I have ever seen (including GWS). It's just time.

So many people have short term thinking and judge on such a small sample. 2018 was always going to be a struggle and injuries have made it much worse. This is the pinnacle and even for seasoned players they need to be fit and in good sides. It's not easy and for "kids" its even harder. 2019 will be a big improvement but it won't be until 2020 when we see the real results. Even then that is a quick improvement.

It's all positive. Go Blues

I’d like to appoint you on the “get Gaff” committee. I don’t think it as hopeless dream as many do. We would probably offer $1.2-$1.4 million over 5 years above what WCE could, not small change and there aren’t that many other clubs that could do that, if he did want to go back to Melbourne. Front loaded, it wouldn’t affect us long term either. We just need to be able to sell our future to him, we have an incredibly talented young list, it just needs some quality senior players to help lift it.