Bluemour Discussion Thread VIII

[Metalcrusher]

beta or vhs?

Reel to reel ....

 

[CJMB]

Nothing i wrote is BS.

If we do trade our top 2 pick for Shiel... give it no more than 12 weeks and there will be backlash. Other clubs will laugh at our trade..

So in mid Jan?

Walsh will probably be leading the rising star award or close to it. And lukosius will be looking very good in whichever team he goes to..

Are we still in mid Jan? Or are you suggesting he'll win it, just like how LDU was thought to be a good chance this year, or like how Rhys Palmer won it back in the day?

Mark my words, 3 years later we will be regreting it. And thats the time we should be challenging for a premiership.

If Shiel wants to come, it cant be for our first. Plenty of others better and younger id trade a top 2 pick for.

Shiel was taken pre-draft by GWS but pretty sure he would have been the same year as Docherty had he gone the 'normal' route. It's not like he's Sloane or someone who's pushing 30.

I'd rather us not trade our first pick for Shiel in a direct swap, but if he wants to come to us you make it happen. I think we can probably suggest that it won't be a simple #1=Shiel trade anyway, SOS will either manipulate our hand (1, 23, 26, 66, 73, etc) to change the order/number of picks and use them on trades or use our first as a deal to get a package back in return, be it multiple players or a player and pick(s). Not to mention futures...

Over the last 3 years we've drafted 16 senior listed players (7 1st rounders, 2 2nds, 2 3rds, 4 4ths) plus traded in another 5 first rounders in that 'younger than Doc' age bracket. Looking at that age bracket (2011+) we've currently got 16 1sts, 3 2nds, 3 3rds, 4 4ths and a few rookies (Byrne, LeBois, McDaid). That's 29 players, 64% of our list, and you'd think we could add another 6 players this year (5 draft, 1 trade) that'd take us to 35 which is 78% of the list. Seems pretty healthy going forward.

It's not a simple debate of trade for Shiel or draft Lukosius/Walsh, there's a heap of intangibles and factors that are in play. I still think we'll do a fair bit of good work at the draft this year, but at the same time if we've got a player like Shiel who actually wants to come to Carlton, I think we make it happen somehow...

 

[Mr Blonde]

I cant see GWS trading Shiel a year early in any case. He's one of their best players, they have a chance to win the flag next year and if they trade Shiel its essentially them giving up. No chance
He may leave next year when he's a free agent but cant see them trading him. Absolutely poor list management and would be shocking PR for the club, its culture and its other players

Agreed. They’ve had a terrible run with injuries this year and will back themselves to bounce back next year. No way they trade one of their best players with a year to go on his contract when they are a realistic chance of winning the premiership next year. I doubt they would do it even if we offered a straight swap for pick 1 which we are very unlikely to do. Best bet is to just wait till he is a free agent, having said that, no harm in asking the question I guess.


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[Ash05]

I don't think there is any chance we trade this years 1st round pick for Dylan Shiel, whether it is pick 1 or 2 without something coming back our way. If we trade pick 1 or 2 for 2 first round picks I could us trading one of them for Shiel or getting a pick back from GWS. I we can still get a midfielder that we want with one of those picks I would be happy to get Shiel in this year.
Speculation and trade hypotheticals are both fun and annoying and just imagine how bad it will be in here when trade week gets closer.

 

[ShanDog]

I don't think there is any chance we trade this years 1st round pick for Dylan Shiel, whether it is pick 1 or 2 without something coming back our way. If we trade pick 1 or 2 for 2 first round picks I could us trading one of them for Shiel or getting a pick back from GWS. I we can still get a midfielder that we want with one of those picks I would be happy to get Shiel in this year.
Speculation and trade hypotheticals are both fun and annoying and just imagine how bad it will be in here when trade week gets closer.

Getting Shiel as a free agent at the end of next year is the gold standard solution - obviously. But, it might not be the way things play out. If we end up trading for him, the quality of players available at the pointy end of this draft is known by everyone. There's no way we don't ensure we still have meaningful picks in the draft, even accounting for what we need to trade out for someone like Shiel.

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

I’d much prefer to trade schrimshaw and 2 or 3 for 1. Then trade 2 or 3 for 9 and Shiel. Then trade 9 for McGovern and 17.

We turn pick 1 into 17, schrimshaw, Shiel and McGovern. We then use 17 on a Collier-dawkins and were set.

The other option is to trade future first with GC for Schrimshaw and 8-14. Use the 8 for Shiel. Go in with Walsh, Shiel and schrimshaw in 2019. It also makes Carlton more appetising for FA in future. You’d expect Jeremy mcgovern and gaff to turn and look if it happens.

Usually the free agency period closes before the trade period. Has the AFL released the dates for 2018 yet?


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[HereComesJuddy]

You really think any of them are gettable?
IF Kelly wanted to come to Carlton this trade period, and the Giants were open to it, it would cost our first this year and next (perhaps if we were lucky a second or a third coming back). And we would do it in a heartbeat.

No idea.
But you asked for names better. Ive provided you those names

 

[Stamos]

Usually the free agency period closes before the trade period. Has the AFL released the dates for 2018 yet?


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No, it opens before the trade period, but doesn't close until after the trade period has started.
I don't think the dates (or the rules in regards to trading picks) have been set yet.

 

[CJMB]

Usually the free agency period closes before the trade period. Has the AFL released the dates for 2018 yet?


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Pretty sure that's correct. FA, trade, PSD, ND, RD

EDIT:

No, it opens before the trade period, but doesn't close until after the trade period has started.
I don't think the dates (or the rules in regards to trading picks) have been set yet.

Actually that sounds right. From memory Rockliff went to Port as a FA during the trade period, perhaps early on...

 

[HereComesJuddy]

You need to understand though - the player has to want to come to Carlton.

See North Melbourne and Kelly, Martin, De Goey. You can have the cash and the picks to get it done, but if the player doesn't want to join you, it's all academic.

Yes, I'd absolutely love to land any of those players, but you've got Kelly in the same boat as Shiel (just re-signed) but worth more ($$$ and picks), Oliver firmly entrenched in a quality midfield pushing hard at finals, and Mitchell who we failed/chose not to secure a few years ago and is at one of the best administered clubs going around.

Macrae and Whitfield may be more gettable based on team performance (Macrae) and salary squeeze (Whitfield) - but there would also be other clubs in the discussion too (NM, St Kilda, Richmond, Hawthorn etc.) who'd have just as strong a case as us, maybe stronger, not to mention the chance they do a De Goey and stay loyal to their club.

Again - if a quality player in the age bracket we're targeting wants to play for Carlton - get the trade done (without getting shafted).

And the shafted part is my issue. He isnt worth a pick in the top 2 of this draft. But we are going back abd forth on the matter.

If you are happy to give up a walsh (who will go past Shiel in 3 years (in my eyes)) or a potential charlie clone, than thats your opinion. I am not

 

[Stamos]

No idea.
But you asked for names better. Ive provided you those names

You should have included LeBron

 

[HereComesJuddy]

You should have included LeBron

Not sure why i answered your question if you are just going to be a dick about it

 

[HereComesJuddy]

You should have included LeBron

Oh... and LeBron is out of contract so he doesn't fit your game.

 

[Monkey King]

Pretty sure that's correct. FA, trade, PSD, ND, RD

PSD after the ND and before the rookie I think.

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

The Blumour well is bone dry and we are thirsty. We need the Desal plant after all.....

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

You think we're going to get Gaff, Shiel and Kelly?

Possible, but unlikely.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Getting Shiel as a free agent at the end of next year is the gold standard solution - obviously. But, it might not be the way things play out. If we end up trading for him, the quality of players available at the pointy end of this draft is known by everyone. There's no way we don't ensure we still have meaningful picks in the draft, even accounting for what we need to trade out for someone like Shiel.

Exactly.

I have been mostly arguing with the theoretical case, but SOS has demonstrated that he views trade week holistically.

He isn't just going to rock up and say, well we've only got pick 1 to play with. He's going to try multiple angles and find a way to move the pieces to get what he wants.

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[BrisbaneCFC]

I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting trading a top 2 pick for Shiel alone

No they aren't, but I am yet to see a reasonable explanation as to why GWS would give up more than Dylan Shiel. There is zero incentive for them to agree to it.

 

[tencentpiece]

I’d much prefer to trade schrimshaw and 2 or 3 for 1. Then trade 2 or 3 for 9 and Shiel. Then trade 9 for McGovern and 17.

We turn pick 1 into 17, schrimshaw, Shiel and McGovern. We then use 17 on a Collier-dawkins and were set.

The other option is to trade future first with GC for Schrimshaw and 8-14. Use the 8 for Shiel. Go in with Walsh, Shiel and schrimshaw in 2019. It also makes Carlton more appetising for FA in future. You’d expect Jeremy mcgovern and gaff to turn and look if it happens.

lol, I'll have what this guy is having. That's never ever going to happen. All those trades Carlton win massively.

If we can get Shiel in this year, we get him. We have inside mids galore and probably the best inside mid in the comp. We have no explosive speed in the midfield and Shiel has the best burst of pace in the league.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

If we end up with pick one … I think Adelaide will trade more than that … Rankine's form is starting to shade off …. makes me wonder if they are not already in his ear … to pull back off his reigns. Lucozade and Rankine …. I bet Reid is eyeing that off as a potential draft swoop this year …...

We can absolutely get a better deal from Adelaide than from GWS for pick 1. Besides the fact the GWS guy everyone is desperate for is free next year.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Sometimes I feel that Shiel has his posse running riot on here.

Yep, agreed.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

You have to pay overs to get a player from another club. Whilst $1M a year is alot of money for Shiel, we have to spend the money somewhere. If Murphy does end up leaving, that opens up even more money for us to spend.

Id rather we look at trying to get Jake Lloyd out of Sydney, who they either don't rate enough to pay more or simply don't have the cap space, than waste a pick and over pay for Shiel this year.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Provided he is injury free, Shiels impact would be immediate.

Or he goes down in round 1 with his bung shoulders and is out for the season.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

There's certainly two distinct camps on this one.

IMO, a lot of us are getting bogged down in the theory of list management, which is different from LM in practice. There are many benefits to getting Shiel and these could really get this build rolling.

We can say that it's too early for big fish and that we'll pick them up when we're ready, but there's no guarantees out there. Just ask St Kilda or North Melbourne what accumulating cap space gets you.

On the assumption (not saying this is true) Shiel has told his manager 'get me back to Carlton', I think you're playing a dangerous game if you tell him to wait a year.

Or the plan is as always seems to have been, wait until next year as they try to nab a premiership then leave in free agency.

 

[Coops93]

Or he goes down in round 1 with his bung shoulders and is out for the season.

Pessimistic