Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

[Arr0w]

When am I ever wrong?

On a serious note though, was referring more to the CM/G. Nick is 1.919, ever so slightly above Brown at 1.914. Both of which are actually very, very good ratios.

They are, but it is still less than 2 a game. Charlie is at 1.74, but we know he hurts opposition players by out working them

Would you believe Matthew Richardson had an average of 2.77? Speaks volumes for where the game has gone.

 

[Arr0w]

It is an indication of where the game has been really. When was Nick's draft? 2001? We're not going back to the one on one days of Tony Lockett any time soon.

The only point I was making is that in comparing Lukosius to Riewoldt, we have to ignore Riewoldt's strong hands in contested situations. JL is more of a two grabber who will contort his body to finish the mark.

Heard a fair bit of this "two grabber" comments, which I don't agree with entirely. No matter who selects Lukosius, he will take a bucket load of marks throughout his career and hit the scoreboard

 

[Psychochook]

Lukosius may well be unique, but CCurnow is uniquerererererer.

Players such as CCurnow (what he looks likely to become) , Franklin, Dangerfield and Martin genuinely spook their opponents into giving away frees for fear of made to look silly, being out-marked, out-muscled etc.
I don't think Lukosius will have that ingredient. The King brothers maybe, but not Lukosius and that's not to say he won't be a very good player, but I don't see him striking fear through his opponents hearts.....pr at least not in the way I've described being 'spooked'

....and none of those examples were pick 1.

 

[Doro]

Why no love for Sloane as a FA?

Great player.
Good character.
Good leader.
Great help for Cripps.
Allow Dow, Kennedy and others to come in to a team with less pressure.
No need to trade.
Would get 3-4 seasons out of him.
2 years younger than Murph.
Would give Adelaide an extra 1st round pick if we were trying to trade with them.

Will be 29 by Rd 1 next year, not a great fit for us in terms of age.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

They are, but it is still less than 2 a game. Charlie is at 1.74, but we know he hurts opposition players by out working them

Would you believe Matthew Richardson had an average of 2.77? Speaks volumes for where the game has gone.

I can see that from 2006-2010 Nick averaged 2.45 and averaged 2.87 in 2008. Richardson retired in 2009. I'd suggest that the changes started somewhere around this time.

I still think Nick was considered one of the best contested marks of his generation.

 

[KohPhi]

If we finish with 1 win and a percentage in the 60’s, and don’t qualify (combined with our prior seasons), I’d struggle to see how any club could possibly qualify going forward.

Looking at the figures you are spot on. But put the results to the side for second and look at how we have got here.
SOS has traded out experienced talent to re-build the club. This re-build has been fully instigated by the Club and not via a mass exodus of players like Brisbane and Gold Coast. We have gilt edged talent at the club. Granted they are young, raw and inexperienced but our talent can't be denied, regardless of what the media say.
SOS isn't silly, he would gladly take a PP if it were offered but privately we've been told 'no chance' so now we take the 'we don't want a PP' position as positive spin.

 

[DangerousD]

I don't think he will leave.

A trend of mine is good friends with Sloane, at the start of the season he said, he won't leave.

I wonder though, with the delay, with his family just welcoming a baby if his head has been turned.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Heard a fair bit of this "two grabber" comments, which I don't agree with entirely. No matter who selects Lukosius, he will take a bucket load of marks throughout his career and hit the scoreboard

I guess the fact that you have heard a fair bit about this means a lot of people believe it. Only in contested situations however. Out on the lead with no pressure, he doesn't have the issue.

 

[Accidental genius]

That's pretty good actually.

Levi Casboult 2.13
Rory Lobb 2.09
Travis Cloke 2.04
Tom Lynch 2.02
Tom Hawkins 1.94
Nick Riewoldt 1.92
Jonathan Brown 1.91
Brennan Cox 1.83
Jesse Hogan 1.78
Ben Brown 1.77
Charlie Curnow 1.74
Joe Daniher 1.74
Mason Cox 1.70
Jack Riewoldt 1.64
Charlie Dixon 1.62
Lance Franklin 1.61
Jack Darling 1.49
Jonathan Patton 1.46
Josh Kennedy 1.45
Cale Hooker 1.39
Taylor Walker 1.38
Jarrad Waite 1.31
Josh Jenkins 1.23
Mitch McGovern 1.23
Jarryd Roughead 1.12

In this case it isn't contested marks as a percentage of overall marks that counts but average contested marks. The fact that Riewoldt's tank means he gets to take more uncontested marks than others shouldn't count against him.

Exceptional by Levi...no wonder bolts is persevering with him....

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Gold Coast will get a very good compo pick for Lynch, possibly pick 2. AFL will likely add a PP as well for them but it would create massive outrage if that were a pick before round 1, it will be end of first round.

I’m not convinced they’ll get a PP, they don’t need more picks and I reckon the AFL understand that.

It will also look ridiculous if a team finishes last with 1 win doesn’t get a PP yet a team up to 3 wins ahead is given one because they’ve “applied” for it.

What I can see happening is a form of COLA and money being pumped into player development and retention.

 

[DangerousD]

Will be 29 by Rd 1 next year, not a great fit for us in terms of age.

What relevance is his age? He is 2 years younger than Murphy and he just signed a 2 year deal.

 

[Arr0w]

Why no love for Sloane as a FA?

Great player.
Good character.
Good leader.
Great help for Cripps.
Allow Dow, Kennedy and others to come in to a team with less pressure.
No need to trade.
Would get 3-4 seasons out of him.
2 years younger than Murph.
Would give Adelaide an extra 1st round pick if we were trying to trade with them.

Don't mind the idea of bringing him in on the cheap to help the transition

My only concern would be that we are playing 3 guys through the middle that are 29 + at the start of next year, Ed, Sloane, Murphy, which really doesn't expose the kids to develop as true mids

If Murphy was used as a permanent forward, or rotating with Sloane, then possibly

 

[Navara79]

Really hope Kerr does re-sign. I rate him.

Also it's interesting considering how poor we have been we haven't really lost any players we wanted to keep. You could say Betts but the spuds at the time seemed happy to lose him.

Andrew McKay pretty much confirmed it on Sen this evening.

 

[Psychochook]

Could we not include Brodie in any deal with GC, IMO not the type of player SOS would be looking to acquire

O'rourke would be cheaper with similar use to us.

 

[Doro]

What relevance is his age? He is 2 years younger than Murphy and he just signed a 2 year deal.

From Sloanes perspective if he leaves he'll want a club that is in the window for his last prime years. I wouldn't be anti the idea, just think the 24-27 bracket is a better fit for our list with the current imbalance.

 

[Arr0w]

I guess the fact that you have heard a fair bit about this means a lot of people believe it. Only in contested situations however. Out on the lead with no pressure, he doesn't have the issue.

Watched him for 2 years, probably 14 games, I could count on one hand the double grabs. I don't see it as a concern.

When he builds some upper body core strength, it won't be an issue

 

[DangerousD]

Don't mind the idea of bringing him in on the cheap to help the transition

My only concern would be that we are playing 3 guys through the middle that are 29 + at the start of next year, Ed, Sloane, Murphy, which really doesn't expose the kids to develop as true mids

If Murphy was used as a permanent forward, or rotating with Sloane, then possibly

If he came, he wouldn't be cheap, not excessive $$$ but not cheap.

All just hypotheticals but if he did come across Murph wouldn't play midfield in my opinion, he would play half back or half forward.

If Slaone forces out Ed out of the midfield then so be it, could Ed play another role? He has reinvented himself a few times already.

 

[DangerousD]

From Sloanes perspective if he leaves he'll want a club that is in the window for his last prime years. I wouldn't be anti the idea, just think the 24-27 bracket is a better fit for our list with the current imbalance.

I agree, he would want a top club but who knows. He is miles ahead of Wallis, Dahlhous and Gaff if he leaves will get close to a Mil

 

[Arr0w]

If he came, he wouldn't be cheap, not excessive $$$ but not cheap.

All just hypotheticals but if he did come across Murph wouldn't play midfield in my opinion, he would play half back or half forward.

If Slaone forces out Ed out of the midfield then so be it, could Ed play another role? He has reinvented himself a few times already.

We have Cripps, Kennedy that are inside, Ed can also do the grunt work. Inside mids are easier to find. If we are chasing FA mids, I would rather look at finishers, such as Gaff, Mundy or even Josh Thomas, to help while the kids are coming through

 

[ParapMarkets]

I’m not convinced they’ll get a PP, they don’t need more picks and I reckon the AFL understand that.

It will also look ridiculous if a team finishes last with 1 win doesn’t get a PP yet a team up to 3 wins ahead is given one because they’ve “applied” for it.

What I can see happening is a form of COLA and money being pumped into player development and retention.

Well that would be a better solution imo. I agree completely that they need help in other areas and not more draft picks.

 

[F_therest]

Exceptional by Levi...no wonder bolts is persevering with him....

This stat can be misleading.

I see a lot of other names there are good contested marks and get far more involved in games than Levi...but they use their speed/smarts to get easy uncontested marks which is ideal.

How often do you see Casboult burn off an opponent to turn a contested situation into an uncontested mark, or cleverly get behind his man into open space?
Not very.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Leave aside Shiel for the moment. If we have 1 and Gold Coast have 2 & 3 (for losing Lynch) they will be absolutely desperate to get a Lynch replacement (Lukosios) whereas in terms of need we want mids and small forwards. They also have 3 firsts, 2 seconds and three thirds from memory,

We have an unspoken understanding that they are going to take Lukosios. We swap pick 1 for pick 2 and ?? another pick (maybe their second @20) or if they are desperate enough 2 and Ainsworth. We pick the best mid and walk away laughing.

Problem is, there’s more than one gun big tall with Ben King in the talk of top 2 and his brother was killing it before the ACL

If I was GC, I’d be happier with Ben King and another young gun than just Lukosius

 

[DangerousD]

We have Cripps, Kennedy that are inside, Ed can also do the grunt work. Inside mids are easier to find. If we are chasing FA mids, I would rather look at finishers, such as Gaff, Mundy or even Josh Thomas, to help while the kids are coming through

Mundy is an interesting one, would he come on a Sam Mitchell type deal? Would love Gaff but would cost a fortune.

 

[Psychochook]

If I'm gold coast...

Screw Carlton, take the King bros and mids with their plethora of picks.

Lukosius will likely not stay up there. The King boys will be able to keep each other company and be an excellent marketing tool. They are serious talents in their own right.

There's no way I'd trade 2,3 for pick 1 and change if I had it. Not a chance.

 

[Arr0w]

Mundy is an interesting one, would he come on a Sam Mitchell type deal? Would love Gaff but would cost a fortune.

Difficult to know, think Mundy is settled and Dockers are heading in an okay direction, just staggers me that they don't rate KPP

I think we will add 2 FA this year, just not sure who and what the quality will be.

I doubt it will be a Gaff & McGovern, but it maybe a Wallis & Whitecross, both would add some hardness and mongrel