Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[thylacine60]

I don't know how many times Fasolo has torn us apart but that is over now lol

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that's why it's happening......

 

[Faz 2000]

There's something about Cerra that makes me think he just SHOULD be a Carlton player. Dylan Shiel also has this quality. Like it's destiny or something.

Obviously Freo wouldn't let him go unless he really threw his toys, and the cheapest I can conceivably see Cerra being obtained is 2019 first rounder. Hard to see it happening, but hey, if it's on the cards, we should be in there fighting for him. Would give us a glut of young and varied midfield talent to grow together.

 

[Prem17]

There was no tone - apologies if it came across differently.



Which "big fish" are you talking about? And how early did they move for one in their rebuild?

BTW wouldn't call Collins a big fish...

All good.
Back to discussions, IIRC all of the decisions on the initial recruitment of Burgoyne, Hale and certainly of Frawley in particular, all drew widespread condemnation on how much they paid for each of those targets, whether it was re drafting or in regard to the money offered, or value to the current list.
You could also add McEvoy and definitely O'Meara as well.

Regardless of what any of the critics thought of the initial recruitment, all of those players are now premiership players who played their roles well for the club. (Except O'Meara of course).

No, Collins is not a big fish. That reference was to the players above.
My point being that although not all of Hawthorn's trading appeals to everyone at the time, they disregard that and go after their required player at all costs.
They are prepared to pay overs just to beat their opposition to the target.

So, my reference to Hawthorn was that if we want to BECOME a successful club, then first we must ACT like a successful club.

 

[Prem17]

Apologies if already mentioned, but Brad Hardie on the PerthNow website mentioned that we are chasing Cerra hard to get him across this year (Hawks and Magpies also in the picture).

Hopefully his contact is closer to Cerra then he was to Fyfe!

 

[thylacine60]

AFL plans for priority pick applications from lowly Blues and Suns

 

[thylacine60]

lowly............not even brave...........

 

[Blue By Blood]

Let's hypothetically say the Cerra and Setterfield rumours are true and eventuate. That would mean from the last three drafts we would have acquired:

2015
1. Weitering
10. McKay
12. Curnow
13. Kennedy

2016
5. Setterfield
6. Petrevski-Seton
27. Fisher

2017
3. Dow
5. Cerra
10. O'Brien

2018
1. Lukosius or Walsh (provided we don't give it up)

Plus these guys who I'm confident quite a few will turn into very handy players.

Cuningham, JSOS, Macreadie, Williamson, Polson, Kerr, De Koning, Schuey, Garlett

That is a damn exciting crop of youth. If we could then use free agency to bring in some mature bodies I'd be genuinely bullish about what this group can achieve in a few years time.

 

[Blue__Balls]

There's something about Cerra that makes me think he just SHOULD be a Carlton player. Dylan Shiel also has this quality. Like it's destiny or something.

Obviously Freo wouldn't let him go unless he really threw his toys, and the cheapest I can conceivably see Cerra being obtained is 2019 first rounder. Hard to see it happening, but hey, if it's on the cards, we should be in there fighting for him. Would give us a glut of young and varied midfield talent to grow together.

Would honestly have no issue going "all-in".

23 + 25 to Sydney for 11. (+240pts for Sydney)
1 + 11 to Freo for Cerra + 6. (values Cerra at 2)
6 + 2019 first (~8) to GWS for Shiel + Setterfield + 16. (values Shiel + Setterfield combined at 3).

IN:
Shiel
Cerra
Setterfield
16 - Valente
19 (PP) - McHenry
60 - Ben Silvagni
Rookie - Hickmott
FA - Fasolo

2019 Starting 22
Byrne, Marchbank, Plowman
Docherty, Weitering, Williamson
Shiel, Cerra, Curnow
Kreuzer, Cripps, Dow
Petrevski-Seton, Curnow, Fisher
Murphy, McKay, Fasolo
I/C: Simpson, O'Brien, Kennedy, Pickett

VFL 22
Mullett, Rowe, Jones
Lang, Macreadie, Schumacher
Kerridge, Hickmott, Valente
Lobbe, Setterfield, Cuningham
Polson, Casboult, Garlett
Wright, Kerr, Silvagni
I/C: TDK, Silvagni, Lebois, McHenry, McDaid

Gone: Graham, O'Shea, Phillips, Shaw, JGM, ASOS, Thomas, Lamb

 

[Bluebag13]

There's something about Cerra that makes me think he just SHOULD be a Carlton player. Dylan Shiel also has this quality. Like it's destiny or something.

Is this Pavlich and Goddard all over again?


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[Bluebag13]

Do you think we will have any interest or put the feelers out on Scott lycett?

Or do we have enough in the ruck role already?
Kruez will be back surely .. its kruez.
Philips at 28 and is a bit injury prone but a good ruck when healthy
Lobbe is 30 but a decent back up.
TDK - - - the future !

 

[Blues90]

Would honestly have no issue going "all-in".

23 + 25 to Sydney for 11. (+240pts for Sydney)
1 + 11 to Freo for Cerra + 6. (values Cerra at 2)
6 + 2019 first (~8) to GWS for Shiel + Setterfield + 16. (values Shiel + Setterfield combined at 3).

IN:
Shiel
Cerra
Setterfield
16 - Valente
19 (PP) - McHenry
60 - Ben Silvagni
FA - Fasolo

2019 Starting 22
Byrne, Marchbank, Plowman
Docherty, Weitering, Williamson
Shiel, Cerra, Curnow
Kreuzer, Cripps, Dow
Petrevski-Seton, Curnow, Fisher
Murphy, McKay, Fasolo
I/C: Curnow, O'Brien, Kennedy, Pickett

VFL 22
Simpson, Jones, Lamb
Mullett, Macreadie, Schumacher
Kerridge, Lang, Valente
Lobbe, Setterfield, Cuningham
Polson, Casboult, Garlett
Wright, Kerr, Silvagni
I/C: TDK, Silvagni, Lebois, McHenry, McDaid

Gone: Graham, O'Shea, Phillips, Shaw, JGM, ASOS, Thomas

I seen Simpson in the vfl 22 and didn't read it

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[Arr0w]

Do you think we will have any interest or put the feelers out on Scott lycett?

Or do we have enough in the ruck role already?
Kruez will be back surely .. its kruez.
Philips at 28 and is a bit injury prone but a good ruck when healthy
Lobbe is 30 but a decent back up.
TDK - - - the future !

It is an interesting situation, I would be happy to target Lycett, but only if we moved out Phillips and Levi

 

[Blue__Balls]

I seen Simpson in the vfl 22 and didn't read it

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Good for you.

Fixed anyway - had an extra Curnow in the side (not a bad thing).

For what it's worth, I don't think there'd be anything wrong with Simmo playing some VFL next year if the backline is fully fit. Docherty, Willo, Byrne, Plowman the future - odds are there's an injury most weeks though...

 

[Bluebag13]

It is an interesting situation, I would be happy to target Lycett, but only if we moved out Phillips and Levi

I could live with that Phillips will get a gig at another club you would think, not sure about levi


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[Blues90]

Good for you.

Fixed anyway - had an extra Curnow in the side (not a bad thing).

For what it's worth, I don't think there'd be anything wrong with Simmo playing some VFL next year if the backline is fully fit. Docherty, Willo, Byrne, Plowman the future - odds are there's an injury most weeks though...

Why would Simpson sign another contract to play in the vfl behind byrne? Makes 0 sense

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[Blue__Balls]

AFL plans for priority pick applications from lowly Blues and Suns

Key sections for me:

In preparing for the probable applications for draft assistance, the AFL will consider the positions of both clubs and the quality of their playing lists. The league has already undertaken some analysis of the playing lists of Carlton and Gold Coast.

The recent precedent has been that clubs receive a selection at the end of the first round, rather than the previous, generous system of handing them a priority pick at top of the draft. This was seen to encourage ‘‘tanking’’ and was scrapped.

It is open for the AFL to award an earlier pick, such as the middle of the first round, although this would be a change of policy. The league is considering long-term changes, such as giving a pick to teams that miss finals for a long period, but none will be in place for this year’s draft.

Fully expecting the Suns to get mid first round, and Carlton end of first round, based on the "quality of the playing lists".

 

[Blue__Balls]

Why would Simpson sign another contract to play in the vfl behind byrne? Makes 0 sense

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Again - fixed the original post because I had an extra player.

Simmo in the VFL isn't a crime, mate. We need to move past him at some point, our backline is pretty stacked when fit, and the VFL side could use the extra leadership. If he wants to go around again, he should be doing so on the understanding that his spot in the side isn't guaranteed. Same message should be going to guys like Murphy, Kreuzer and Ed - selection based on form and fitness, the original "kids" don't need babysitters in 2019.

 

[Bluebag13]

Fully expecting the Suns to get mid first round, and Carlton end of first round, based on the "quality of the playing lists".

I’d be pretty frustrated if this was to happen

 

[Bluebag13]

Again - fixed the original post because I had an extra player.

Simmo in the VFL isn't a crime, mate. We need to move past him at some point, our backline is pretty stacked when fit, and the VFL side could use the extra leadership. If he wants to go around again, he should be doing so on the understanding that his spot in the side isn't guaranteed. Same message should be going to guys like Murphy, Kreuzer and Ed - selection based on form and fitness, the original "kids" don't need babysitters in 2019.

Ideally Simpson plays 10-14 games at AFL level next year and the rest in the VFL. Means we are fit and firing down back, with doc, Williamson, Byrne and whoever else all healthy and playing well


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[Matty411]

Key sections for me:





Fully expecting the Suns to get mid first round, and Carlton end of first round, based on the "quality of the playing lists".

Would spew if they awarded them a higher PP when we've had a 2-win season - regardless of playing list.

 

[Jeremias]

All good.
Back to discussions, IIRC all of the decisions on the initial recruitment of Burgoyne, Hale and certainly of Frawley in particular, all drew widespread condemnation on how much they paid for each of those targets, whether it was re drafting or in regard to the money offered, or value to the current list.
You could also add McEvoy and definitely O'Meara as well.

Regardless of what any of the critics thought of the initial recruitment, all of those players are now premiership players who played their roles well for the club. (Except O'Meara of course).

No, Collins is not a big fish. That reference was to the players above.
My point being that although not all of Hawthorn's trading appeals to everyone at the time, they disregard that and go after their required player at all costs.
They are prepared to pay overs just to beat their opposition to the target.

So, my reference to Hawthorn was that if we want to BECOME a successful club, then first we must ACT like a successful club.

Don't disagree with you re: Hawthorn.

They are an exceptionally well run club who have put in the hard yards and are obviously now hugely successful on the back of it.

But it is important to remember they weren't always that way. They were poor when Clarkson came on board and went through a rebuild with him at the helm, albeit possibly not as drastic as the rebuild we have embarked on.

Their talent ID from other clubs has been exemplary in that time, and they have had the luxury of picking off certain players to fill specific needs, even for a short period of time. But I maintain none of that would be possible without the initial foundations being set at the start of the rebuild. Hence my question to you - how many mature aged players did they draft, in the early stages of the draft, in the early years of their rebuild?

The answer would be not many, if any.

Bringing it back to the issue at hand, Sam Collins. If we were further down the track he'd be a good example of someone to bring in to potentially plug a hole straight away, but I don't believe we're at the stage yet where we can afford to be taking a 24 year old KPD inside the first few rounds of the ND.

Later on in the draft, sure, but for mine we've got too many other holes and needs to address before going down that path. Personally I wouldn't be in favor of going with Collins inside the first 3 rounds - certainly not with a pick in the 20s.

 

[Aphrodite]

SOS draft last year:
Dow: 9.5/10 (I always thought Cerra was better but now I’m not quite sure. The top prospects, Stephenson and Higgins, had their risks, so I think this would be close to the best pick)

O’Brien: 6.5/10 (this boy managed to go at pick 10, while there were better options. Richards is a clear one (correct me if he is FS), but Boner and Fogarty, who came directly after him, are also high on the list. Let’s see how it plays out)

De. Koning 9/10 (SOS was good to see the upcoming ruck situation and bringing in a strong ruck (or forward?). De. Koning is showing significant signs and should be a top player in years to come.)

Schumacher 10/10 (I think we found the steal of the draft)

TDK & Schu 9/10 & 10/10 and they have not played 1 AFL Senior game

6.5/10 for LOB who has played 16 AFL games.

I think you are selling LOB very short.

 

[Prem17]

Bringing it back to the issue at hand, Sam Collins. If we were further down the track he'd be a good example of someone to bring in to potentially plug a hole straight away, but I don't believe we're at the stage yet where we can afford to be taking a 24 year old KPD inside the first few rounds of the ND.

Later on in the draft, sure, but for mine we've got too many other holes and needs to address before going down that path. Personally I wouldn't be in favor of going with Collins inside the first 3 rounds - certainly not with a pick in the 20s.

Probably right re the mature picks for the Hawks in the early stages. TBH, I don't care enough for Hawthorn's history to research it as I would for our' own history.
I would probably disagree on the point of Collins not being a need though.
We have Jones, Marchbank, Weitering and Plowman as long term options.
Weitering and Marchbank both play their best football as interceptors.
Plowman is more of a third tall.
IMHO, Jones is not suited to the FB role because he is too attacking. For every great spoil, there will be a situation where he is caught out of position by 15m because he has gone charging downfield and there has been a turnover.
It's not a bad thing to be an attacking defender but Jones has not quite got the balance right atm.
So, if we were to pick up Collins, that allows the others to play to their strengths.
Personally, as I have posted a month or more ago, I'd like to see Jones used as a wingman to link up around the middle of the ground.
Whether or not he has the endurance for that I don't know but he is quick off the mark, can mark and spoil and has a long kick.
They are all good attributes for enabling quick entries inside 50m. His height would also be difficult to counter by midfielders which would mean that a taller defender would have to man up on him, or else the opposition risks his man being outmarked constantly.

That's my thinking as to why Collins would be ideal for us.
We have multiple holes to fill but I think that targeting specific needs like this enables not just these players but also others to play roles that are more suited to them.

Eg; Marchbank goes to a half back/intercept role - Thomas goes back to a more attacking role (which will happen once Docherty is fully fit)

Ideally, we wouldn't have to use a second round pick but the problem is that then we get back to the Hawks premiership years of trading type scenario where the clubs that don't have gaping holes to fill can afford to use an earlier pick to fill a need that could mean the difference between an early finals exit and a premiership.
On one hand, we could say that we can't afford that luxury but on the other, we can't afford to be left even further behind either, so IMHO we must play the successful teams at their own game.

One way around this problem could be to trade players (not that we have many that we would be prepared to let go that are worth much at the trade table), or future picks for more 2nd round picks this year.
Be proactive at fast forwarding the rebuild in a good way, without taking a short cut.

Whichever way you slice it, this year is more critical than ever in regard to us being absolutely ruthless at the trade/draft table.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Enjoyed this weeks episode of "the carlton show" episode 19. At 52 minutes in, Andy and the boys start taking trades and potential targers. The discuss Shiel and its exact what ive been saying.

Take a listen if you would like:

https://www.sen.com.au/podcasts/the-carlton-show/

 

[inyourcool]

Is there any talk or suggestion of that we might rookie Sam Fisher from NB's?

I haven't been able to get to a NB game this year but it seems his performances have been strong and consistently improving and could be a valuable midfield soldier at AFL level. Still young and spent a couple of years in the swans system

Be good to get some more midfield depth especially considering he is developing in our very own backyard and would hate to see him kick on elsewhere