Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[fridgeman]

I wonder if that will make any difference

IMO it's not the drafting so much as to the clubs management and coaching staff.

I think clubs need to invest more money in development staff if they have a certain number of 1/2/3 year players as that is where some clubs are letting down players as they cannot give them the coaching they need
The hawks have done a great job in the last few years developing some of the younger players who were lower picks into ok afl players and the same could be said for Sydney
Look at how many rookie picks these teams have turned into AFL players and how they do it, one on one coaching and also in the reserves playing to a game style

 

[Keystone agony]

A mature age propspect that has come on leaps and bounds this year with opportunity. Mitchell Pierce (West Perth) good size for an inside midfielder. Great competitor and tackler and knows how to find a goal. Had some good disposal games vs Subi League side which is basically full of mature ex AFL players or top end WAFL players.

Not sure youd know much about him. Wont surprise me if someone has a crack at him this year.

 

[Knightmare]

I think clubs need to invest more money in development staff if they have a certain number of 1/2/3 year players as that is where some clubs are letting down players as they cannot give them the coaching they need
The hawks have done a great job in the last few years developing some of the younger players who were lower picks into ok afl players and the same could be said for Sydney
Look at how many rookie picks these teams have turned into AFL players and how they do it, one on one coaching and also in the reserves playing to a game style

Hawthorn/Sydney and other clubs having success developing talent have been able to do so for a few reasons.

Good coaching - head coach, assistant coaches, development coaches, fitness staff etc are all part of the equation.

A key those better clubs tend to have though is veteran leadership and a strong club culture developed by the examples these veterans provide. Hawthorn have the established culture because they've had Hodge and Mitchell.

Sydney have also always had that and have the likes of Kennedy, McVeigh, Jack and Hannebery lead the way.

It's no surprise with Brisbane adding Hodge that they've suddenly become a competitive side. He's turned their culture around massively. Alex Witherden wrote a great piece on this very issue probably a months ago now.

A mature age propspect that has come on leaps and bounds this year with opportunity. Mitchell Pierce (West Perth) good size for an inside midfielder. Great competitor and tackler and knows how to find a goal. Had some good disposal games vs Subi League side which is basically full of mature ex AFL players or top end WAFL players.

Not sure youd know much about him. Wont surprise me if someone has a crack at him this year.

Seems to have improved late season. Tackle numbers good.

Going off his numbers trend, he seems like one who will whether drafted or not take another step next year.

 

[jakefooty23]

What do you think Fremantle do with there 1st pick and the pick they get from Brisbane if the Lachie Neale trade goes ahead. I like Rankine but I don't think he'll be there.

 

[Knightmare]

What do you think Fremantle do with there 1st pick and the pick they get from Brisbane if the Lachie Neale trade goes ahead. I like Rankine but I don't think he'll be there.

Both picks may go in a deal to get Jesse Hogan.

If the picks are retained, or if one is retained.

I don't have Rankine being available, if he is, then he'd be the one to get. Connor Rozee, Bailey Smith and Ben King are the better prospects I see being available with those picks and would all be in the mix.

 

[theGav56]

Both picks may go in a deal to get Jesse Hogan.

If the picks are retained, or if one is retained.

I don't have Rankine being available, if he is, then he'd be the one to get. Connor Rozee, Bailey Smith and Ben King are the better prospects I see being available with those picks and would all be in the mix.

I am in the hit the draft mode for Fremantle. With uncertainty over Hogan's foot (unless there is a clear medical assessment), I would not trade for him. Out of contract next year, and a season to show the foot is good.

From inside the list Blakely to move into the midfield as an extractor, and a replacement for him off half-back could be Cerra during his development phase.

Smith projects as an ideal Neale replacement long-term, but my ideal should Neale go is Rankine and Rozee, with both landing in our forward 50. We have Taberner, Cox, Dixon and McCarthy. They are unconvincing, but can form a structure, and have contested marking ability which is a start.

I am thinking elite small and mid size forwards could have the greater impact for us than elite tall forwards.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft Wrap with a focus on Mitch Grigg: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...de-crows-player-mitch-grigg-set-walk-back-afl

 

[Thunderstruck]

Players to watch from the two teams KM?

Stephens and Mead for mine, for consistent high level output. Mead was excellent in the Under 18 SANFL GF, knows how to find it and hits the scoreboard. Port will be very damn lucky to get him. And Taheny of course for the most naturally talented player for SA for next year.

Unsure on Finlay, Pickett could be anything, he shows bursts of brilliance then goes missing. He's hard though, real hard, likes to hurt people.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Can I just say that Luko is a generational talent and Walsh is amazing ect ect. No one that anyone has as much talent as Izak. They just don't! I have spent the last two years watching them both and trying to separate them. In the end Izak is just so talented it is ridiculous. Champion data, the national champs ect just continue to highlight how good he is.

My point is he is just simply outrageous! At this age who knows if he fulfills what he can but he is just so special it is laughable!!

Certainly agree on Rankine, I can remember first watching him live when he was 15 and I could not believe what I was seeing, just so dominant and electric, destroyed opponents like he was some kind of special agent, he made them all look completely silly with how easily he did it. He's a talent level above anyone else in this draft including Luko which says something. It's just a matter of that talent being converted as he he can be lazy but we shall see. If he's on though, even in his first year, he will cause headaches at AFL level.

 

[Tyruddanaut]

What do you think Fremantle do with there 1st pick and the pick they get from Brisbane if the Lachie Neale trade goes ahead. I like Rankine but I don't think he'll be there.

Considering both of the picks will be in the top 6, regardless of compensation, Fremantle must try for:
Walsh, Smith, Lukosius, King, Rankine, King or Blakey (F/S, Academy)

Considering Walsh is the favourite to go pick #1 (Carlton) and Lukosius is commonly thought to be the best in the draft class, they won't go past pick #3 (St. Kilda)
Blakey can be ruled out, F/S X2 & Academy.
This leaves Rankine, the Kings and Smith.

St Kilda has the need for a dominant KPP, ruckman or tall forward, so I expect the will go for one of Blakey (Bid Matched), Max King or Ben King.
This leaves Fremantle to choose from a King, Smith and Rankine. I truly believe that Smith is up there as one of the best players in this draft class and should be able to replace Neale to a high standard; even though they are different types of players, they play the same position. Fremantle's need for tall Forwards can be addressed with the other King, or a bid for Blakey, which is almost guaranteed to be matched.

Otherwise, if Gold Coast do receive compensation better than pick 4, Fremantle will be forced to choose whoever is still available out of the super 7

 

[Oscarman]

Knightmare thoughts on Toby Bedford? Where do think Melbourne will take him if they do?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare thoughts on Toby Bedford? Where do think Melbourne will take him if they do?

He'll get nominated and attract a bid. It's just a question of whether it's earlier or later. I expect Melbourne match bids.

Bedford isn't someone I'd want to bid on early/match bids on early, but with clubs in 2017 severely overrating pace/placing a heavy premium on pace, it's possible that bid comes in the first half of the draft. Can't see a bid coming earlier than the second round, with that the point where clubs will start to consider Bedford.

As for his game. Super speedy. Maybe the quickest in the TAC Cup. Will take on the game with his run. He brings the tackling energy. Isn't soft. Not sure what role at AFL level he could fill, but to date, pressure forward seems his best go. They're the options you get with him. Melbourne could hope he becomes something like a Dan Butler/Jason Castagna equivalent role player. I personally rate him more a late pick, but I don't place the emphasis on pace clubs do.

For more see page one post one: 19/9/2018 - Focus on Melbourne NGA prospect Toby Bedford

 

[theGav56]

Considering both of the picks will be in the top 6, regardless of compensation, Fremantle must try for:
Walsh, Smith, Lukosius, King, Rankine, King or Blakey (F/S, Academy)

Considering Walsh is the favourite to go pick #1 (Carlton) and Lukosius is commonly thought to be the best in the draft class, they won't go past pick #3 (St. Kilda)
Blakey can be ruled out, F/S X2 & Academy.
This leaves Rankine, the Kings and Smith.

St Kilda has the need for a dominant KPP, ruckman or tall forward, so I expect the will go for one of Blakey (Bid Matched), Max King or Ben King.
This leaves Fremantle to choose from a King, Smith and Rankine. I truly believe that Smith is up there as one of the best players in this draft class and should be able to replace Neale to a high standard; even though they are different types of players, they play the same position. Fremantle's need for tall Forwards can be addressed with the other King, or a bid for Blakey, which is almost guaranteed to be matched.

Otherwise, if Gold Coast do receive compensation better than pick 4, Fremantle will be forced to choose whoever is still available out of the super 7

Quite a few seem to have Rozee in that top bracket as well, and GCSs a chance to take him at 2-3. He would also be in consideration for us I would think due to his forward capacity. Where do you see his value being?

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Quite a few seem to have Rozee in that top bracket as well, and GCSs a chance to take him at 2-3. He would also be in consideration for us I would think due to his forward capacity. Where do you see his value being?

I see him as getting drafted in 5-15 with the most likely being around 7-9

 

[Number 10 is cursed]

Knightmare, I'd be interested in your thoughts on Angus Litherland being given a second chance. He has starred for Subiaco in the WAFL this season and seems to have the right attitude.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, I'd be interested in your thoughts on Angus Litherland being given a second chance. He has starred for Subiaco in the WAFL this season and seems to have the right attitude.

Wasn't bad for Hawthorn, isn't bad in the WAFL.

Other state league defenders are rated ahead of Litherland, so I don't expect this is the year he earns his way back onto an AFL list.

 

[theGav56]

Quite a few seem to have Rozee in that top bracket as well, and GCSs a chance to take him at 2-3. He would also be in consideration for us I would think due to his forward capacity. Where do you see his value being?

There seems to be a meme developing that the top 6 are elite level, with some comments implying any of them could be #1 in other years. But your thoughts blur that idea a little bit, and are more like what normally happens in most drafts as you get past the top 3 or so.

In fact Walsh over Lukosius and Rankine maybe going outside the top 3 imply to me that clubs are quite happy to bring in an element of "need" above ye olde "best available". And the Kings throw a their own bit of confusion into the mix.

 

[08elf]

If Lynch & May leave, surely Gold Coast would be interested in both the King boys? They may not be best available at that point, but it'd solve both Jerry position posts and hopefully using the Brisbane retention model, stop players wanting to return to their gone state.

 

[Knightmare]

If Lynch & May leave, surely Gold Coast would be interested in both the King boys? They may not be best available at that point, but it'd solve both Jerry position posts and hopefully using the Brisbane retention model, stop players wanting to return to their gone state.

They want Lukosius and Rozee.

Unless they have four top 10 picks including three inside the top 5 and the other inside the top 7, they're probably not getting both King brothers.

 

[theGav56]

They want Lukosius and Rozee.

Unless they have four top 10 picks including three inside the top 5 and the other inside the top 7, they're probably not getting both King brothers.

Do you think their thinking may change if they lose May?

 

[briztoon]

Do you think their thinking may change if they lose May?

Rumour is Gold Coast will be pre-listing Sam Collins before this years draft. If May goes, there's his replacement.

 

[HedgeFund]

Rumour is Gold Coast will be pre-listing Sam Collins before this years draft. If May goes, there's his replacement.

Whilst Sam Collins is most likely a better player now than when he was cut from Fremantle after chalking up 14 games over two years, he is hardly a “replacement” for Steven May.

May be able to hold down a 2nd or 3rd tall defensive spot in a weak team, but he’s not a certainty to be the next Brody Mihocek.

 

[eastfreo75]

With the all the talk about Collins, I still think he is a solid back up.

His major issues is his lateral movement and closing speed.

I hasn't seen him play in VFL but I can't see how you can improve those two areas especially closing speed.

 

[HedgeFund]

With the all the talk about Collins, I still think he is a solid back up.

His major issues is his lateral movement and closing speed.

I hasn't seen him play in VFL but I can't see how you can improve those two areas especially closing speed.

Hence my argument he has to play as a floating intercept marking hybrid.

Hasn’t got the pace/agility to go one-on-one with quick forwards, nor is he big enough to play on monsters.

VFL is very good footy but they don’t tend to have massive KPPs or elite quick medium sized players at that level....because they’re already playing in the AFL teams!

 

[eastfreo75]

Hence my argument he has to play as a floating intercept marking hybrid.

Hasn’t got the pace/agility to go one-on-one with quick forwards, nor is he big enough to play on monsters.

VFL is very good footy but they don’t tend to have massive KPPs or elite quick medium sized players at that level....because they’re already playing in the AFL teams!

To be a floating interceptor like McGovern you need a lot of pressure up the field and you need to catch most high balls.

Not sure the Suns will be able to pressure with so many players leaving and Collins is a good mark but for not a great mark.