How Crow Can You Go? An Adelaide Football Club Saga
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Has the season finished?
No not yet. It could well end up more in your favour by season end. Just seems crazy to see a trade equalling this atm to be counted as a win regardless. During trade period no one would take less than 2 top 10 picks or more for pick 1.
The thing is, if the two picks end up say 19 and 12, that’s about what you’d expect to get for say pick 6-8 in a draft. You’d want a fair bit more than that for pick 1-2, particularly where there are two clear standout midfielders at the top of the draft like this year.
Beyond just the picks, there’s also the opportunity cost of not having pick 1-2 heading into this year’s trade period. I dare say there would be plenty of opposition players that could be had for pick 1-2, many with change coming back.
If you guys jag 8-9 wins and move up to 13th-14th it will become a moot point, though.
However it turns out, it was a huuuuuuuge risk and a bloody entertaining plot for this year and beyond for neutrals. I’m glad it’s not my club, because the added stress for losses would kill me.
Beyond just the picks, there’s also the opportunity cost of not having pick 1-2 heading into this year’s trade period. I dare say there would be plenty of opposition players that could be had for pick 1-2, many with change coming back.
If you guys jag 8-9 wins and move up to 13th-14th it will become a moot point, though.
However it turns out, it was a huuuuuuuge risk and a bloody entertaining plot for this year and beyond for neutrals. I’m glad it’s not my club, because the added stress for losses would kill me.
Love how the Crow supporters are up and about
Have beaten 3 sides that were bottom 6 from last year and probably still will be come season's end
Swans that look like a bottom 6 and lost to North
Let's see how they fair, from here to the bye
Have beaten 3 sides that were bottom 6 from last year and probably still will be come season's end
Swans that look like a bottom 6 and lost to North
Let's see how they fair, from here to the bye
Exactly, it could end up costing my club alot instead of Carlton. Just beggars belief that Carlton fans would be happy to give up pick 1 for way unders just because super SOS did the trade.
You are still making the same assumptions
Dunno about the others, I'm certainly not up and about. Would be huge if we make finals with our current form.
What I mean is that people have been posting here that they would be happy with the trade regardless of outcome, even if it is bad. I would be unhappy with the trade if it meant we lost out.
People really need to stop focusing on the numbers, it's all about the players selected
The true outcome won't be known for at least 4 years, just like 70lethal claiming Gallucci being a better value pick compared to SPS and Fisher
- Apr 23, 2017
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You really think he'd have the balls to pop in here ..
I don't think so ..all piss and wind ..
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No way, he would rather use selective stats from the past to predict the future
Thinks he is nostradamus
- Apr 23, 2017
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But do they understand stats that mean Jack. ?
Again ..I don't think so..
But in trade period it's all about the pick numbers surely? Anyway, I'll just be happy if we get out first top 4 pick, will be good to have the opportunity (not including our abysmal trade of pick 2 for Carey).
If the club thought Carlton would get a minimum of 6 wins it seems like poor analysis and poor risk assessment.
Carlton is relying on a lot of young players. When you are in this situation it doesn’t take much for the season to go off the rails. We are still in a fragile state.
Silvagnis trade was a risky one in my eyes. I wouldn’t have had the courage to pull the pin on that one. To say it’s got nothing to do with the draft numbers is not entirely accurate in my opinion. Pick 1 this year would have provided a lot of capital to use in trades.
Looking at the ladder l think we are favourites for the wooden spoon and highly likely to be bottom 3. To give up pick 1-3 for ~10 & Stocker means you would really want to be very sure about stocker.
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Carlton is relying on a lot of young players. When you are in this situation it doesn’t take much for the season to go off the rails. We are still in a fragile state.
Silvagnis trade was a risky one in my eyes. I wouldn’t have had the courage to pull the pin on that one. To say it’s got nothing to do with the draft numbers is not entirely accurate in my opinion. Pick 1 this year would have provided a lot of capital to use in trades.
Looking at the ladder l think we are favourites for the wooden spoon and highly likely to be bottom 3. To give up pick 1-3 for ~10 & Stocker means you would really want to be very sure about stocker.
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I keep on saying this but the evaluation of this trade should not be whether we traded pick 1 for 10 + 19 or pick 3 for 8 + 19 it should be who those picks become. If Stocker + our pick end up good and the Crows pick end up being good I'll be happy with two good players.
This trade's ultimate success wont be known for years to come.
On a much lesser extent I remember us being called out for trading pick 46 (2014) which became Caleb Daniel for Liam Jones and Jason Tutt.
The narrative can change quickly.
This trade's ultimate success wont be known for years to come.
On a much lesser extent I remember us being called out for trading pick 46 (2014) which became Caleb Daniel for Liam Jones and Jason Tutt.
The narrative can change quickly.
I see it a little differently and in a complicated sort of way.
The argument your making can be made for any draft selection. The number is irrelevant because all that matters is the quality of the player you end up with.
I think you are right when talking about the stocker component, in that we will have to wait to see how he develops because It wasn’t really about pick 19 but about stocker. But the Adelaide pick down grade is a different matter.
The draft pick number has a relationship to the probability of picking a quality player. Right now, Carlton’s probability in picking up an elite talent in this years draft has dropped significantly as a result of the stocker trade. We may do well to just get a decent player.
Most other clubs did not see what Carlton saw in stocker. This can be worrying because Stocker needs to become a very good player to justify this trade.
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- Mar 25, 2019
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Have your mob ever thought most blues supporters just dont care what pick adelaide get and that we're happy with Stocker? We've had that many high draft picks that we could theorise of a 30 year dynasty when they all reach their full potential... but in reality we wont. At some point a team has to focus on more than just their youth and we've hit that point. We have young talent galore, so much so that we've started debating which top draft picks get in the team week in week out... but we still lose. You can debate who will end up a spud and who wont... whatever... if you put our youth in around top development teams like the hawks and the swans of old theyd probably be dominating and progressing well. Carlton had a horrific patch of bad draft picks, Mick Malthouse, trading players for peanuts and shocking player development and we were left with a semi competitive going no where team when we beat the tigers in that final.
The stocker trade may not end up in our favour in regards to picks, it may turn out massively in our favour, who knows? If we continue to surround these young players with huge ceilings with older spuds who cant challenge those players at training, then we will continue in an infinite cycle of getting a high pick, seeing huge potential at the start, and fizzing away after a few years. This trade will be a defining moment for Carlton, the media will talk about who got what pick, the crows fans will harp on about how much they robbed us even if we clearly win... but at the end of the day, we clearly have the intent of surrounding our young talent with some sort of senior players. Senior players set standards for the youth, when Docherty was playing at all australian level our backline was the best line on our list, every defender we had seemed to be pretty good... a year later without Docherty there, they were getting pumped by 100 weekly and looked worthy of delistings. Honestly I hope I don't see another high draft pick in our team for a few years to come, because really theres no point if we're going to continue the way we are. Cripps is our only player right now that sets a standard, and just happens to be that our whole midfield seems pretty decent in stoppages and clearances in his first year as captain. If you go and get Matt Rowell with our pick... good for you... He'll learn off Sloane and the Crouch brothers and probably end up great, but the only thing this trade should be measured by for us is if we can pick up someone of genuine talent or leadership in the off season with the pick we traded for.
Adelaide have issues of their own, and Carlton have plenty, but right now another number 1 draft pick really isnt going to do much for us when theres nobody around that can make them work for their spots. If we get any sort of top end talent around the club I'll consider it a win for us, because we got Walsh and we got Stocker, which is two more high draft picks that have high ceilings, and now the only thing left is to surround them with top end talent that can keep us in games and help develop these young kids. If we fizz out on getting some talent in the door come end of the year, ill consider this trade a poor effort by the club, but still i'll ponder as to why most Adelaide supporters seem to think we are really interested in more draft picks... we've got like 17 first round draft picks or something playing at the moment... Enjoy your pick 1, pick 2, pick 7... whatever it is... the only thing the blues should be worried about is who we're getting in outside of the draft, because frankly having Anderson or Rowell look really promising for 2 years and then plateau along with the rest of our list doesnt get me all that excited.
Also maybe getting juddy as our new coach... but maybe thats just me being mad that we lost to Norf... who knows?
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how in the worlds is WHE and patton a miss lol?
Exactly my angle, from a risk analyst perspective.
- Sep 5, 2017
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Does any Carlton supporter on here think you blood your draftees too early? Ive been very jealous with your draft choices of the last few years but development is 90% of making a player.
Players like Dow, LOB, SPS would have benefited from learning their craft in the VFL. Look what it did for Harry McKay who looks to have confidence in his ability after developing in the VFL.
This relates to Stocker as he wasnt going that fantastic from some reports playing off the half back yet it seems Cartlon have rushed him in.
Walsh looks the exception to this. Hes a jet but will need a rest at some point.
Happy to discuss or you can tell me to nic off...
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Players like Dow, LOB, SPS would have benefited from learning their craft in the VFL. Look what it did for Harry McKay who looks to have confidence in his ability after developing in the VFL.
This relates to Stocker as he wasnt going that fantastic from some reports playing off the half back yet it seems Cartlon have rushed him in.
Walsh looks the exception to this. Hes a jet but will need a rest at some point.
Happy to discuss or you can tell me to nic off...
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As opposed to a pessimist's shortsightedness?
If the thread is too much for some to handle, they should avoid it
The numbers do mean something, I cannot remember the theory but it goes something along the lines of...
Good Process - Bad result : The process of the trade was good, just the result was bad. (Aka the players you selected were bad)
Good Process - Good result: The process of the trade was good and the result was good. (Aka the players were good)
Bad Process - Good result: Bad process of the trade, good result.
Bad Process - Bad result: Bad process of the trade, bad result.
The bad process, good result styled options are dangerous because it means you will likely make those same mistakes often because you got a good result from a bad process. (Share markets it often makes a lot more sense)
I think if we trade away pick 1/2 for pick 10/12 and Stocker... That is very close to being bad process, the hard part of this whole trade is the fact with the Stocker pick, we knew the player being selected.
Now if Adelaide with pick 1/2 select a player like Toumpas and with our pick 12 we get a players like Cripps... I don't think that proves our process was better. It just potentially proves our bad process gave a good result. If you were to repeat the same process multiple times, Adelaide should come out infront.
cfc4life
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- Sep 16, 2007
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I'm looking at the trade outside of what Stocker ends up acheiving. Froma pure numbers basis it is a massive fail. We have handed the best kid in the country to Adelaide on a silver platter.
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