Analysis North Melbourne Power Rankings

[Engimal v3]

Round 17:

Late update this week because footy's s**t and * the Pies. Simpkin loses a place to a bloke not even playing (Jacobs) and Cunnington drops to 15th to 18th in the AFL. I hate football (until we win again, of course).

1. (..) Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.42
2. (..) Ben Cunnington - Score: 1.35
   
3. (..) Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.24
   
4. (..) Ben Brown - Score: 1.19
   
5. (..) Jed Anderson - Score: 1.17
   
6. (+) Ben Jacobs - Score: 1.07
   
7. (--) Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.06
   
8. (..) Luke McDonald - Score: 1.04
   
9. (..) Shaun Atley - Score: 1.02
   
10. (..) Todd Goldstein - Score: 1.02

Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Clayton Oliver
2. Patrick Dangerfield
3. Tom Mitchell
4. Nathan Fyfe
4. Patrick Cripps
5. Dustin Martin
6. Shaun Higgins
7. Lance Franklin
8. Elliot Yeo
9. Dayne Zorko
10. Adam Treloar

...

17. Marcus Bontempelli
18. Ben Cunnington (-3)
19. Lachie Neale


Click here for results

 

[Engimal v3]

Round 19:

Late update this week again because I'm lazy. Jed finally eclipsed Brown for 4th spot, while Dumont comes back into the 10, with Atley making way. Higgins remains at 6th in the AFL and Cunnington moves up 1 spot after almost leaving the top 20 last week.

1. (..) Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.42
2. (..) Ben Cunnington - Score: 1.37
   
3. (..) Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.24
   
4. (+) Jed Anderson - Score: 1.19
   
5. (--) Ben Brown - Score: 1.18
   
6. (..) Ben Jacobs - Score: 1.07
   
7. (..) Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.06
   
8. (..) Luke McDonald - Score: 1.04
   
9. (+) Todd Goldstein- Score: 1.0e
   
10. (+) Trent Dumont- Score: 1.02

In: Trent Dumont
Out: Shaun Atley


Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Clayton Oliver
2. Tom Mitchell
3. Patrick Dangerfield
4. Nathan Fyfe
4. Patrick Cripps
5. Dustin Martin
6. Shaun Higgins
7. Elliot Yeo
8. Lance Franklin
9. Dayne Zorko
10. Adam Treloar

...

17. Gary Ablett
17. Ben Cunnington (+1)
18. Lachie Neale


Click here for results

 

[Engimal v3]

Round 20:

Ben10 might be ready to live up to his name. The World's Greatest Fisherman moves into 11th place in the entire AFL, while Higgins drops back a place to 7th. If Cunnington can move into the 10, it would make North the only team with two players in the 10. Also notice the discrepancy in score between the top 5 and the rest. Over .10 between 5th and 6th place. And really, excluding defensive guns like Tarrant that this ranking system won't account for, it's hard to argue that the top 5 here aren't our top 5 players. Higgins, Cunnington, Ziebell, Brown and Anderson. Jacobs misses out due to the games threshold, but his score comes in 6th.

As the season continues, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that Higgins will lose top spot. It will take a huge effort from Cunnington to dethrone him at this stage.

1. (..) Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.43
2. (..) Ben Cunnington - Score: 1.37
   
3. (..) Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.26
   
4. (+) Ben Brown - Score: 1.20
   
5. (--) Jed Anderson - Score: 1.20
   
6. (+) Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.08
   
7. (+) Trent Dumont - Score: 1.02
   
8. (..) Luke McDonald - Score: 1.04
   
9. (..) Todd Goldstein- Score: 1.02
   
10. (+) Shaun Atley- Score: 1.02

In: Shaun Atley
Out: Ben Jacobs


Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Tom Mitchell
2. Clayton Oliver
3. Patrick Dangerfield
4. Dustin Martin
5. Patrick Cripps
6. Elliot Yeo
7. Shaun Higgins (-1)
8. Dayne Zorko
9. Luke Parker
10. Lachie Neale
11. Ben Cunnington


Click here for results

 

[Engimal v3]

Round 21:

Just because our season is dead, it doesn't mean our Brownlow smokeys are! Ben Brown and Jed Anderson continue to play leapfrog for 4th spot, while Cunnington fails for close the gap between he and Higgins.

1. (..) Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.43
2. (..) Ben Cunnington - Score: 1.37
   
3. (..) Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.26
   
4. (+) Jed Anderson - Score: 1.21
   
5. (--) Ben Brown - Score: 1.19
   
6. (..) Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.06
   
7. (+) Trent Dumont - Score: 1.03
   
8. (+) Todd Goldstein - Score: 1.03
   
9. (--) Luke McDonald- Score: 1.02
   
10. (..) Shaun Atley- Score: 1.00

Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Patrick Dangerfield
2. Tom Mitchell
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Patrick Cripps
5. Dustin Martin
6. Elliot Yeo
7. Shaun Higgins
8. Lance Franklin
9. Jack Macrae
10. Dayne Zorko

...

15. Ben Cunnington


Click here for results

 

[archereleven]

Keep this going engimal for when Josh is here... #1

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[Engimal v3]

Round 22:

Wow, almost a week late. A new record! You know Higgins is still winning anyway. Cunnington moved up the 12th in the AFL, while Higins stays steady at 7th. Within North, Atley pushes McDonald down to 10tth.

Tomorrow I'll be able to post the final results. Higgins has potential to move to 6th i the AFL.

1. (..) Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.43
2. (..) Ben Cunnington - Score: 1.37
   
3. (..) Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.27
   
4. (..) Jed Anderson - Score: 1.22
   
5. (..) Ben Brown - Score: 1.19
   
6. (..) Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.07
   
7. (..) Trent Dumont - Score: 1.06
   
8. (..) Todd Goldstein - Score: 1.05
   
9. (+) Shaun Atley- Score: 1.01
   
10. (--) Luke McDonald- Score: 1.01

Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Patrick Dangerfield
2. Tom Mitchell
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Dustin Martin
5. Patrick Cripps
6. Elliot Yeo
7. Shaun Higgins
8. Dayne Zorko
9. Luke Parker
10. Lachie Neale

...

12. Ben Cunnington


Click here for results

 

[Engimal v3]

Final results! Yes I'm lazy.

Round 23:

Of course, Shaun Higgins is the king of Arden St in 2018 and our Bronwnlow favourite. The rest of the top 10 remains as it was last round, although a outstanding game from Dumont saw him jump over Simpkin to 6th place.

In the whole AFL, Higgins stands at 6th place at the end of the season. I'll be updating Brownlow night to see how my predictions go! I have a slight feeling that, because this algorithm favours midfielders and there as been 2 really dominant ruckmen this year), the entire AFL top 10 might be less accurate this year than other years. Usually, this algorithm picks the winner and 70% of the top 10. We'll have to wait and see.

1. (..) Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.41 (6th in AFL)
2. (..) Ben Cunnington - Score: 1.35 (16th in AFL)
   
3. (..) Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.25 (42nd in AFL)
   
4. (..) Jed Anderson - Score: 1.20 (64th in AFL)
   
5. (..) Ben Brown - Score: 1.18 (71st in AFL)
   
6. (+) Trent Dumont - Score: 1.08 (104th in AFL)
   
7. (--) Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.06 (112th in AFL)
   
8. (..) Todd Goldstein - Score: 1.05 (116th in AFL)
   
9. (..) Shaun Atley- Score: 1.00 (138th in AFL)
   
10. (..) Luke McDonald- Score: 0.98 (142nd in AFL)

Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Patrick Dangerfield
2. Dustin Martin
3. Tom Mitchell
4. Clayton Oliver
5. Patrick Cripps
6. Shaun Higgins (+1)
7. Elliot Yeo
8. Jack Macrae
9. Lachie Neale
10. Luke Parker

...

12. Ben Cunnington


Click here for results[/QUOTE]

 

[ferball]

Your top 6 all made AA fwiw.

 

[archereleven]

Your top 6 all made AA fwiw.

Yeo and Macrae should if been in too making it the top 8.

AA is fubar imo. They need to expand on the judging panel by a dozen or two and then tally sides off who was selected the most imo.




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[Engimal v3]

Your top 6 all made AA fwiw.

Didn't even notice! Good pickup. Although I'd say most players with a good Contested Possessions average usually make it (our very own Ben10 an exception, of course).

 

[ferball]

Yeo and Macrae should if been in too making it the top 8.

AA is fubar imo. They need to expand on the judging panel by a dozen or two and then tally sides off who was selected the most imo.




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Just quietly I reckon they should have been in too.

And I agree about the large judging panel.

 

[archereleven]

Just quietly I reckon they should have been in too.

And I agree about the large judging panel.

If they had a panel of 30 odd, Kane Lambert and Trent Cotchin wouldnt have even made the initial 40 imo.

Seriously one of the worst AA squads I've seen, capped off beautifully by announcing Buddy as captain - shredding any credibility it could of gained.

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[ferball]

If they had a panel of 30 odd, Kane Lambert and Trent Cotchin wouldnt have even made the initial 40 imo.

Seriously one of the worst AA squads I've seen, capped off beautifully by announcing Buddy as captain - shredding any credibility it could of gained.

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Maybe every coach should get a vote but their own players should be ineligible for it, then another random 15 to 20 people with genuine footy smarts.

 

[archereleven]

Maybe every coach should get a vote but their own players should be ineligible for it, then another random 15 to 20 people with genuine footy smarts.

Yeah, anything with 30-40 selectors would be my preference. Even if all clubs nominated 2 x selectors each season to make it 36 on the panel. Any bias would be smoothed, plus they would just look like knob heads if it was blatant anyway.

All teams would be handed in and a count for backs, mids, forwards, followers and interchange done. The players with the most nominations win spots in the team.

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[Better Loosen Up]

Hey all,

As some of you may have noticed from my posting in the Random Thoughts thread, I built a player ranking system that uses a little bit of math to compare players against each other. Using a certain combination of statistics with the right weights, it is able to predict 63% of the Brownlow top 10 from 2010-2017, and as high as 81% last year. Using that same formula, I thought it'd be interesting to keep a running tab on North players and see who sits on top at the end of the season.

The statistics and weightings used for this formula are:

1. Goals x 0.8
2. Contested Possessions x 1.2
3. Inside 50s x 1

Additionally, the players must have played at least 50% of the games in the season to count.

At any time, the rankings of North Melbourne players can be seen at: [url=http://page-ict.com/projects/afl/re...m=13&o1=5&w1=0.8&o2=15&w2=1.2&o3=10&w3=1]HERE[/url]

I'll be updating this thread every Monday from now on with a top 10, with the shifts noted over rounds.

As of Round 6:

1. Shaun Higgins - Score: 1.42
2. Ben Cunnington - Score 1.42 (limited to 2 decimal places)
3. Jack Ziebell - Score: 1.33
4. Jarrad Waite - Score: 1.28
5. Jed Anderson - Score: 1.24
6. Shaun Atley - Score: 1.17
7. Trent Dumont - Score: 1.17
8. Ben Brown - Score: 1.17
9. Billy Hartung - Score: 1.16
10. Jy Simpkin - Score: 1.15

Full URL: http://page-ict.com/projects/afl/re...8&team=13&o1=5&w1=0.8&o2=15&w2=1.2&o3=10&w3=1)

Yeah, that's great... but i'd rather see your 2018 Brownlow rankings pls!

 

[Engimal v3]

Yeah, that's great... but i'd rather see your 2018 Brownlow rankings pls!

Here you go. Personally, I can't seen Dusty and Danger making the top 10. On average, you can take 6 out of the top 10 to be accurate based on past years. Most years it picks the winner, too.

I think Danger, Dusty, Neale and Parker will all miss the top 10, although all four are decent vote scorers. I think Mitchell is a certainty for the win.


http://page-ict.com/projects/afl/re...18&team=1&o1=5&w1=0.8&o2=15&w2=1.2&o3=10&w3=1

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Cheers

Grundy #47. Gawn #96.

 

[Engimal v3]

Cheers

Grundy #47. Gawn #96.

Yep, ruckmen will always be underrated in this algorithm. So I expect the 10 to be skewed given that there's 2 dominant ones this year. Usually, it's no concern.

 

[Orange Peanut]

So the algorithm is picking Dangerfield? Have I understood that correctly?

 

[Engimal v3]

Leader's overall position in the AFL:
1. Patrick Dangerfield
2. Dustin Martin
3. Tom Mitchell
4. Clayton Oliver
5. Patrick Cripps
6. Shaun Higgins (+1)
7. Elliot Yeo
8. Jack Macrae
9. Lachie Neale
10. Luke Parker

Let the record show that this is my final prediction for the 2018 Brownlow Medal.

As for club leaders:

 

[B4Bear]

Let the record show that this is my final prediction for the 2018 Brownlow Medal.

As for club leaders:
View attachment 563351

Laird 1st - Gibbs 2nd
Beams 1st - Zorko 3rd
Cripps 1st
Sidebottom 1st - Adams <5th
Heppell 1st
Fyfe 1st* - Neale 2nd
Dangerfield 1st
Fiorini 1st - Lyons<5th
Whitfield 1st - Ward 2nd
Mitchell 1st
Brayshaw 1st - Oliver 3rd
Higgins 1st
Wines 1st - Wingard 6th
Martin 1st
Steven 1st
Franklin 1st - Parker 2nd
Gaff 1st - Yeo 2nd
Macrae 1st

Eight correct, with seven in the top three.

Not bad.

 

[Engimal v3]

Laird 1st - Gibbs 2nd
Beams 1st - Zorko 3rd
Cripps 1st
Sidebottom 1st - Adams <5th
Heppell 1st
Fyfe 1st* - Neale 2nd
Dangerfield 1st
Fiorini 1st - Lyons<5th
Whitfield 1st - Ward 2nd
Mitchell 1st
Brayshaw 1st - Oliver 3rd
Higgins 1st
Wines 1st - Wingard 6th
Martin 1st
Steven 1st
Franklin 1st - Parker 2nd
Gaff 1st - Yeo 2nd
Macrae 1st

Eight correct, with seven in the top three.

Not bad.

Definitely better than the overall one! 3/10, worst year ever

 

[Engimal v3]

Hey all. Decided to check results for this year, out of curiosity. Current top 50 are below (for anyone curious):

Cunnington is currently sitting at #18, Ziebell at #37, and Higgins is #45.

Rank	Player
1​	Fyfe, Nat: 1.52
2​	Dangerfield, Patrick: 1.51
3​	Boak, Travis: 1.47
4​	Oliver, Clayton: 1.47
5​	Sloane, Rory: 1.41
6​	Bontempelli, Marcus: 1.40
7​	Yeo, Elliot: 1.40
8​	Zorko, Dayne: 1.40
9​	Cripps, Patrick: 1.39
10​	Neale, Lachie: 1.38
11​	Kelly, Tim: 1.37
12​	Martin, Dustin: 1.36
13​	Sheed, Dom: 1.36
14​	Walters, Michael: 1.36
15​	Shiel, Dylan: 1.35
16​	Ablett, Gary: 1.35
17​	Harmes, James: 1.34
18​	Cunnington, Ben: 1.34
19​	Mundy, David: 1.34
20​	Hopper, Jacob: 1.33
21​	Pendlebury, Scott: 1.32
22​	Treloar, Adam: 1.32
23​	Merrett, Zach: 1.32
24​	Gresham, Jade: 1.31
25​	Prestia, Dion: 1.31
26​	Shuey, Luke: 1.31
27​	Crouch, Brad: 1.31
28​	Macrae, Jack: 1.30
29​	Coniglio, Stephen: 1.30
30​	Heppell, Dyson: 1.29
31​	Dunkley, Josh: 1.29
32​	Brayshaw, Angus: 1.29
33​	OMeara, Jaeger: 1.28
34​	Parker, Luke: 1.28
35​	McCluggage, Hugh: 1.28
36​	Swallow, David: 1.27
37​	Ziebell, Jack: 1.27
38​	de Goey, Jordan: 1.27
39​	Taranto, Tim: 1.27
40​	Cameron, Jeremy: 1.27
41​	Worpel, James: 1.26
42​	Powell-Pepper, Sam: 1.26
43​	Liberatore, Tom: 1.24
44​	Robinson, Mitch: 1.24
45​	Higgins, Shaun: 1.22
46​	Petracca, Christian: 1.22
47​	Lyons, Jarryd: 1.22
48​	Gawn, Max: 1.21
49​	Fiorini, Brayden: 1.21
50​	Parish, Darcy: 1.21

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

Hey all. Decided to check results for this year, out of curiosity. Current top 50 are below (for anyone curious):

Cunnington is currently sitting at #18, Ziebell at #37, and Higgins is #45.

Rank	Player
1​	Fyfe, Nat: 1.52
2​	Dangerfield, Patrick: 1.51
3​	Boak, Travis: 1.47
4​	Oliver, Clayton: 1.47
5​	Sloane, Rory: 1.41
6​	Bontempelli, Marcus: 1.40
7​	Yeo, Elliot: 1.40
8​	Zorko, Dayne: 1.40
9​	Cripps, Patrick: 1.39
10​	Neale, Lachie: 1.38
11​	Kelly, Tim: 1.37
12​	Martin, Dustin: 1.36
13​	Sheed, Dom: 1.36
14​	Walters, Michael: 1.36
15​	Shiel, Dylan: 1.35
16​	Ablett, Gary: 1.35
17​	Harmes, James: 1.34
18​	Cunnington, Ben: 1.34
19​	Mundy, David: 1.34
20​	Hopper, Jacob: 1.33
21​	Pendlebury, Scott: 1.32
22​	Treloar, Adam: 1.32
23​	Merrett, Zach: 1.32
24​	Gresham, Jade: 1.31
25​	Prestia, Dion: 1.31
26​	Shuey, Luke: 1.31
27​	Crouch, Brad: 1.31
28​	Macrae, Jack: 1.30
29​	Coniglio, Stephen: 1.30
30​	Heppell, Dyson: 1.29
31​	Dunkley, Josh: 1.29
32​	Brayshaw, Angus: 1.29
33​	OMeara, Jaeger: 1.28
34​	Parker, Luke: 1.28
35​	McCluggage, Hugh: 1.28
36​	Swallow, David: 1.27
37​	Ziebell, Jack: 1.27
38​	de Goey, Jordan: 1.27
39​	Taranto, Tim: 1.27
40​	Cameron, Jeremy: 1.27
41​	Worpel, James: 1.26
42​	Powell-Pepper, Sam: 1.26
43​	Liberatore, Tom: 1.24
44​	Robinson, Mitch: 1.24
45​	Higgins, Shaun: 1.22
46​	Petracca, Christian: 1.22
47​	Lyons, Jarryd: 1.22
48​	Gawn, Max: 1.21
49​	Fiorini, Brayden: 1.21
50​	Parish, Darcy: 1.21

Pray for Boaky!

 

[Mordecai]

Can't get the site to work at the moment. No list/image being generated.