Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

[Chief]

This is part 1 of this thread.

Continued in Part 2:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Jobe Watson]

So you agree its just a PR exercise to be shown to be doing something. Because Italy didn't just cancel soccer games and all was well.

A PR exercise by whom? If they play games to no crowds it's going to cost the AFL and state government millions. They wouldn't be going down that path for no reason.

 

[lioninthesand]

I am now firmly of the belief that approaching round 1 pretending we will get through anything that resembles a meaningful season is futile.

Players will get it, teams will be isolated, games will be cancelled, the draw will be comprimised.

It's depressing but shutting it down now and MAYBE getting an 8-12 game season in might work but even that's doubtful.

It's heading that way people, best we come to terms with it.

 

[RUNVS]

I am now firmly of the belief that approaching round 1 pretending we will get through anything that resembles a meaningful season is futile.

Players will get it, teams will be isolated, games will be cancelled, the draw will be comprimised.

It's depressing but shutting it down now and MAYBE getting an 8-12 game season in might work but even that's doubtful.

It's heading that way people, best we come to terms with it.

Can the AFL create a 17 round season that has the flexibility to move games around when necessary?

 

[Coaster2012]

To put this all into scale, an expert said that half of America is likely to get infected by the Corona Virus. America has a population of 327 million. If half of America gets infected by the Corona Virus that is 163 million people.

Now if the fatality rate of Corona is 2%, 2% of 163 million people is 3.26 million people potentially dying.

Guy on Rogan said obese people could have the same morality rates as people over 60. I suspect that % could go a little higher in the states.

 

[Bombermania]

Retail isn’t critical to the economy?

Closing shopping centres would be a short term measure so in that situation shopping centres are not critical to the economy, they are critical to the people connected to them but to the economy as a whole they are not critical. Retail doesn't just happen in shopping centres and as America shows you can have a strong economy with falling demand at shopping malls.

 

[dont bowl there]

Who said anything about it being the most effective way to slow the Corona Virus down? Please show us?

It is one part of a plan to slow down the rate of spread. Along with travel bans, separate Corona virus testing centres, closing schools, advising people to work from home if possible, online doctor appointments, self-isolation, closing child care centres, stopping large gatherings, limiting public transport. Have you read WA's pandemic plan? It's all in there.

The people who think canceling large gathering will have an enormous effect when everyday PT use is in fact the largest gathering we face in our day to day life. Again. Lets stop AFL crowds 100% but don't then wonder why the virus has spread at a crazy level when everybody is still going about their day to day life the same.

Good ole WA pandemic plan, if any place on earth would be ahead of the times it would be WA. They should just cancel late night shopping again.

 

[Seeds]

To put this all into scale, an expert said that half of America is likely to get infected by the Corona Virus. America has a population of 327 million. If half of America gets infected by the Corona Virus that is 163 million people.

Now if the fatality rate of Corona is 2%, 2% of 163 million people is 3.26 million people potentially dying.

The mortality rate will be much much higher if those sorts of numbers get infected. Hospitals cant deal with a tenth of those numbers.

 

[Seeds]

The people who think canceling large gathering will have an enormous effect when everyday PT use is in fact the largest gathering we face in our day to day life. Again. Lets stop AFL crowds 100% but don't then wonder why the virus has spread at a crazy level when everybody is still going about their day to day life the same.

Good ole WA pandemic plan, if any place on earth would be ahead of the times it would be WA. They should just cancel late night shopping again.

pT is necessary for many whilst football is not necessary for anybody.

 

[RUNVS]

The mortality rate will be much much higher if those sorts of numbers get infected. Hospitals cant deal with a tenth of those numbers.

The only positive is it won't all be at the same time.

 

[dont bowl there]

A PR exercise by whom? If they play games to no crowds it's going to cost the AFL and state government millions. They wouldn't be going down that path for no reason.

But it didn't solve Italys problems did it? Didn't the numbers get larger even after cancelling the soccer games? There is a reason. Its because it cant be stopped and people refuse to give up their day to day life. Football or concerts aren't day to day, they are a luxury event. Cancel them, I agree. But it's not going to stop this thing. Italy went into lockdown to try and stop it, what makes you think we shouldn't do the same?

 

[juss]

To put this all into scale, an expert said that half of America is likely to get infected by the Corona Virus. America has a population of 327 million. If half of America gets infected by the Corona Virus that is 163 million people.

Now if the fatality rate of Corona is 2%, 2% of 163 million people is 3.26 million people potentially dying.

That's an overinflated fatality rate. For starters, it's the old and immunocomprimised who are dying (generally).

Secondly, the rate is reported from confirmed cases. Think of all the thousands and thousands of people who contracted it with mild flu like illness (the majority of healthy individuals) and never got tested or reported.

It's terrible for the risked, that's true. For the vast majority even if they do contract it, they will recover fairly easily. The death rate isn't going to be 2% as all of diagnosis, treatment, etc. improve too.

 

[undefined]

That's an overinflated fatality rate. For starters, it's the old and immunocomprimised who are dying (generally).

Secondly, the rate is reported from confirmed cases. Think of all the thousands and thousands of people who contracted it with mild flu like illness (the majority of healthy individuals) and never got tested or reported.

It's terrible for the risked, that's true. For the vast majority even if they do contract it, they will recover fairly easily. The death rate isn't going to be 2% as all of diagnosis, treatment, etc. improve too.

At this stage, taking into account the estimated non-reported cases, the FR stands at 1%.

 

[Jobe Watson]

But it didn't solve Italys problems did it? Didn't the numbers get larger even after cancelling the soccer games? There is a reason. Its because it cant be stopped and people refuse to give up their day to day life. Football or concerts aren't day to day, they are a luxury event. Cancel them, I agree. But it's not going to stop this thing. Italy went into lockdown to try and stop it, what makes you think we shouldn't do the same?

No one is saying you can stop this thing completely just by cancelling events. It's more about keeping the cases at a manageable level so the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed, and to try to minimise the spread as much as possible. How do you know Italy's cases wouldn't be even higher if Serie A kept letting fans in?

 

[RUNVS]

At this stage, taking into account the estimated non-reported cases, the FR stands at 1%.

Which still means 1.6 million Americans dying and 120,000 Australians dying.

 

[Unique Name]

The people who think canceling large gathering will have an enormous effect when everyday PT use is in fact the largest gathering we face in our day to day life. Again. Lets stop AFL crowds 100% but don't then wonder why the virus has spread at a crazy level when everybody is still going about their day to day life the same.

Good ole WA pandemic plan, if any place on earth would be ahead of the times it would be WA. They should just cancel late night shopping again.

Not good enough.

Where?

Where has anyone said shutting down AFL games being the most effective way to slow the Corona Virus down? Show us.

No-one has said that. It is just one part of a wider plan to hopefully slow the spread.

WA's pandemic plan is much the same as what the US are saying right now as well.

 

[Thrawn]

You aren't near 75 000 people just because you are there with them though. You are arguably going to be in contact with less people at the footy because you'll mostly be limited to the direct 10-20 around you.

Um no? You're still going to pass through hundreds of people just to get fro point A to point B.

 

[juss]

Which still means 1.6 million Americans dying and 120,000 Australians dying.

Why do you think half of America will get it?

Also keep in mind the fatality rate will decrease as treatment, diagnosis methods and supportive measures all improve over the next 6 months.

 

[RUNVS]

Why do you think half of America will get it?

Also keep in mind the fatality rate will decrease as treatment, diagnosis methods and supportive measures all improve over the next 6 months.

I saw a story on CNN which stated that an expert believed that around 50% of all Americans will contract the virus.

 

[juss]

Um no? You're still going to pass through hundreds of people just to get fro point A to point B.

Its not airborne transmission via respiration is it? It requires coughing, sneezing, contact, etc.

 

[dont bowl there]

No one is saying you can stop this thing completely just by cancelling events. It's more about keeping the cases at a manageable level so the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed, and to try to diminish the spread as much as possible. How do you know Italy's cases wouldn't be even higher if Serie A kept letting fans in?

Again. I agree with stopping the AFL from having crowds, but Italy didn't simply stop there did they. You are advocating a stop to events but not to public transport and other measures like shopping centres which will carry and spread the virus on an everyday level. I personally wont go to the football even if they allow it in round 1 but I also think I'm an idiot for then getting on a train and handling the shopping centre railing. As the Italians say...bup.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Guy on Rogan said obese people could have the same morality rates as people over 60.

wtf i love coronavirus now

 

[undefined]

Its not airborne transmission via respiration is it? It requires coughing, sneezing, contact, etc.

Yes to airborne transmission.

And a yes to those who've been exposed yet haven't contracted COVID being highly contagious.

 

[Hawkk]

To put this all into scale, an expert said that half of America is likely to get infected by the Corona Virus. America has a population of 327 million. If half of America gets infected by the Corona Virus that is 163 million people.

Now if the fatality rate of Corona is 2%, 2% of 163 million people is 3.26 million people potentially dying.

The mortality rate will be much much higher if those sorts of numbers get infected. Hospitals cant deal with a tenth of those numbers.

Those numbers have not been banded around...

The correct rate is closer to 480,000 (for worst case scnerio) with 96 million infections (just under 1/3 of all in the USA)

Expert warns of 96 million possible coronavirus infections in US with up to half a million dead

Dr Lawler reported his estimates to encourage hospitals to prepare for high numbers so each facility can limit the effects

www.independent.co.uk

Throwing around numbers well and truly above is actually pretty irresponsible.

Especially when posters still confuse the case mortality with the actual risk posed by the virus.

 

[scoman]

I don't care about no crowds at games. I just want my footy to start!

 

[Hawkk]

Guy on Rogan said obese people could have the same morality rates as people over 60. I suspect that % could go a little higher in the states.

A gym membership is a much stronger weapon than bog roll