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Draft Watcher eDPS Draft Watch 2020

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Snuffaluphagus said:
eDPS I'm kinda stuck on getting McDonald any way we can so much so that I would give up a future 1st with out current first to get pick 2 from the Kangas and some back change to match bids.
A) Do you think this is possible
B) Would you do it
C) Any North fans out there that like this idea?

My reasoning is that there are two potentially generational WA KPFs coming through this year and next with McDonald and Van Rooyen and we have Tabs who is 28, Lobb who isnt a front line KPF (and 28) and Hogan who is unreliable and I can see us hitting an almighty hole in 4 years when our draftee's since 2016 are hitting absolute prime and we dont have a KPF to kick to. Think we need to make sure we get one of McDonald or Van Rooyen
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Of course we would have to take that but I’m stuck on Logan as well. We have a second 1st round pick so we can take a mid with that. But if KM is saying he is the best 17 year old since Buddy I hope the offer doesn’t come.

With an ageing Kennedy WCE would also be looking at a way to trade up.
 
Pykie said:
The formula is publicly released.

You need to be in the top 5% of paid players in the league and they add weighting points due to your age for every player in the comp. I believe the maximum weighting is around 12 points.

Every player in the comp is ranked. If he falls in that top 37 or so players after weighting, it's Band 1.

It's not rocket science and AA and B&F results have nothing do with the weighting, you must assume if they are B&F winners and AA winners it's accounted for in their respective contract values.

It's not the total contract value that's relevant, purely the annual $/year salary ranking.

Simple maths tells you on average it should be roughly the top 1 or 2 paid players in each of the 18 sides would qualify for Band 1 depending on age.

Based on the top 50 paid players Fox or the Hun released a month or so ago, Crouch would have to get around $700k/yr to get Band 1. Is someone going to offer that? Especially during Covid? Teams would quite concievably be looking at dropping TPP's to 92.5% to cover for massive off field commercial 2020 losses.


Crouch is relatively young, so that is a positive. However nobody knows the exact makeup of that top 40, there could quite concievably be players in that 30-60 range from GC that might be getting well overs at a very young age (Ben King as an example), who would get maximum weighting and rank him in the top 35. There'd be others you wouldn't expect also.
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Correct - except it's not EVERY player. It's only those 25+. Niall's article states that pretty clearly.

I'm not sure if that makes it easier or harder to get good compensation, as compared to being rated against all players. You could make a case either way.
 

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Tas said:
Crows definitely having a shocking season but they aren't a basketcase club like most of the others given a handout.

2019 draft: McASey has played 10 games(83%), Schoenberg 3(25%), Worrell 0(0%), O'Connor 0(0%), Gollant 0(0%).
2018: Jones 18(53%), McHenry 8(24%), Hamill 8(24%).
2017: Fogarty 19(34%), McPherson 6(11%)
2016: Gallucci 27(35%), Poholke 14(18%), Himmelberg 14(18%)

It is hard to make the case that you are in need of more young talent when you have barely played the young talent you have recruited over the last four years. The basketcase sides that needed the help have pretty much needed all that talent on field to be competitive.

If you are going to shove a player out of the club who wants to remain in the hope of getting a pick that is far beyond the value of the player then it is incumbent on the AFL to say no, especially when the club is barely playing their kids.
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Barely playing the kids?

The Crows are obviously playing their kids. But they don't have great quality there, and they're surrounded by mediocre experienced players.

The Crows are clearly in a lot of pain, and need assistance.
 
eDPS said:
I’m not sure what came over me to do this but thought I’d update some of my draft ranges for the player summaries i did but because so many have changed i decided to just put a list up of 60 of my favourite prospects and made ups draft range for them. Not to say anyone not on this a list shouldn’t be top 60 prospects i just can’t go too crazy haha.

Kaine Baldwin 10-40
Sam Berry 20-50
Jake Bowey 25-60
Cody Brand 20-45
Tanner Bruhn 5-20
Braeden Campbell 3-15
Jackson Callow 20-45
Jackson Cardillo 20-45
Jack Carroll 20-45
Bailey Chamberlain 25-60
Heath Chapman 5-25
Blake Coleman 20-50
Brayden Cook 20-50
Nik Cox 3-15
Oliver Davis 30-Late
Connor Downie 20-45
Corey Durdin 30-Late
Zac Dumesny 20-45
Luke Edwards 25-50
Denver Grainger-Barras 3-15
Errol Gulden 20-45
Cameron Fleeton 25-60
Eddie Ford 15-35
Clayton Gay 25-60
Jack Ginnivan 30-Late
Oliver Henry 5-20
Darby Hipwell 30-Late
Elijah Hollands 1-10
Jaiden Hunter 30-Late
Lachlan Jones 5-20
Charlie Lazzaro 25-60
Bailey Laurie 20-50
Finlay Macrae 15-40
Zavier Maher 10-35
Logan McDonald 1-10
Reef McInness 5-20
Liam McMahon 30-Late
Zac Meloncelli 30-Late
Carter Michael 30-Late
Shannon Neale 15-40
Tariek Newchurch 20-50
Nathan O’Driscoll 3-15
Luke Pedlar 20-50
Archie Perkins 5-25
Will Phillips 1-10
Caleb Poulter 10-35
Tom Powell 10-30
Zach Reid 5-25
Fraser Rosman 30-Late
Taj Schofield 30-Late
Harry Sharp 30-Late
Connor Stone 20-50
Riley Thilthorpe 3-15
Zane Trew 5-20
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 1-5
Brandon Walker 15-40
Joel Western 30-Late
Isiah Winder 30-Late
Hagan Wright 20-50
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Interesting to see that there is no clear p1. Will be interesting to see who goes where on draft night?
 
eDPS said:
View attachment 938878
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I’m just going to assume Brisbane trade up for the Western Bulldogs first round pick from now on. That gives the Dogs an extra ~460 points, and allows them to match a bid at pick 3.

Happy to draft who ever the best mid or forward mid is still available from Bruhn, Perkins, or Ford.

Then just match a bid on Blake Coleman with our 3rd round pick.
 
eDPS said:
I’m not sure what came over me to do this but thought I’d update some of my draft ranges for the player summaries i did but because so many have changed i decided to just put a list up of 60 of my favourite prospects and made ups draft range for them. Not to say anyone not on this a list shouldn’t be top 60 prospects i just can’t go too crazy haha.

Kaine Baldwin 10-40
Sam Berry 20-50
Jake Bowey 25-60
Cody Brand 20-45
Tanner Bruhn 5-20
Braeden Campbell 3-15
Jackson Callow 20-45
Jackson Cardillo 20-45
Jack Carroll 20-45
Bailey Chamberlain 25-60
Heath Chapman 5-25
Blake Coleman 20-50
Brayden Cook 20-50
Nik Cox 3-15
Oliver Davis 30-Late
Connor Downie 20-45
Corey Durdin 30-Late
Zac Dumesny 20-45
Luke Edwards 25-50
Denver Grainger-Barras 3-15
Errol Gulden 20-45
Cameron Fleeton 25-60
Eddie Ford 15-35
Clayton Gay 25-60
Jack Ginnivan 30-Late
Oliver Henry 5-20
Darby Hipwell 30-Late
Elijah Hollands 1-10
Jaiden Hunter 30-Late
Lachlan Jones 5-20
Charlie Lazzaro 25-60
Bailey Laurie 20-50
Finlay Macrae 15-40
Zavier Maher 10-35
Logan McDonald 1-10
Reef McInness 5-20
Liam McMahon 30-Late
Zac Meloncelli 30-Late
Carter Michael 30-Late
Shannon Neale 15-40
Tariek Newchurch 20-50
Nathan O’Driscoll 3-15
Luke Pedlar 20-50
Archie Perkins 5-25
Will Phillips 1-10
Caleb Poulter 10-35
Tom Powell 10-30
Zach Reid 5-25
Fraser Rosman 30-Late
Taj Schofield 30-Late
Harry Sharp 30-Late
Connor Stone 20-50
Riley Thilthorpe 3-15
Zane Trew 5-20
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 1-5
Brandon Walker 15-40
Joel Western 30-Late
Isiah Winder 30-Late
Hagan Wright 20-50
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You don’t like Max Heath.
 

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briztoon said:
But he’s not even close to the top 5 from the 2016 draft is he?
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He is certainly making some ground, keep in mind what this draft is like compared to 2016 aswell. I’m not sure it’s as good as 2016 yet.
 
Mego Red said:
Barely playing the kids?

The Crows are obviously playing their kids. But they don't have great quality there, and they're surrounded by mediocre experienced players.

The Crows are clearly in a lot of pain, and need assistance.
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The numbers i put up earlier suggests you aren't playing them.

I am not having a go at Adelaide, it is what it is. It is like when Brad Scott used to say we had one of the youngest lists in the AFL (as an excuse for losing) and played one of the oldest teams every week, it doesn't matter if you have young kids if you don't play them.

For comparative purposes:

GC and North (mostly due to injuries) fielded 17 players under 100 games (avg experience 57.5 & 68.1)
Swans 16 (68.6)
Fremantle, Saints, Richmond and Dogs 15 (82.2, 77.9, 91.6 & 74.3)
Melbourne and GWS 13 (94.3 & 97.7)
Brisbane, Carlton and Crows fielded 12 (96.5, 105.1 & 87.7)
PA, Col, WCE 11 (106.2, 107.7 & 116.5)
Haws and Cats 10 (121.8 & 132.8)

There are teams much younger and less experienced fielding more kids, it is largely because your senior players aren't performing well that the team hasn't been winning and I am not sure you can call them mediocre when they made a grand final in 2017.

If it wasn't for the Tippett fiasco and the absurdity of trading for Gibbs, the list would be in much better shape, those two alone are equivalent to 5 first round pick losses, it isn't something clubs should be compensated for imo.
 
Tas said:
The numbers i put up earlier suggests you aren't playing them.

I am not having a go at Adelaide, it is what it is. It is like when Brad Scott used to say we had one of the youngest lists in the AFL (as an excuse for losing) and played one of the oldest teams every week, it doesn't matter if you have young kids if you don't play them.

For comparative purposes:

GC and North (mostly due to injuries) fielded 17 players under 100 games (avg experience 57.5 & 68.1)
Swans 16 (68.6)
Fremantle, Saints, Richmond and Dogs 15 (82.2, 77.9, 91.6 & 74.3)
Melbourne and GWS 13 (94.3 & 97.7)
Brisbane, Carlton and Crows fielded 12 (96.5, 105.1 & 87.7)
PA, Col, WCE 11 (106.2, 107.7 & 116.5)
Haws and Cats 10 (121.8 & 132.8)

There are teams much younger and less experienced fielding more kids, it is largely because your senior players aren't performing well that the team hasn't been winning and I am not sure you can call them mediocre when they made a grand final in 2017.

If it wasn't for the Tippett fiasco and the absurdity of trading for Gibbs, the list would be in much better shape, those two alone are equivalent to 5 first round pick losses, it isn't something clubs should be compensated for imo.
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It is interesting though. The AFL use draft sanctions to punish the club, but then in the space of 5-10 years the club is uncompetitive and the hand goes out for assistance. Kind of defeats the purpose, particularly when the people who committed the offence (Trigg and Chapman) are still gainfully employed in The industry.

similar to carlton getting stripped of picks, become a basket case and the afl still giving them handouts.

surely Greater personal punishment should be dished out.
 

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Rory Walkerfield said:
It is interesting though. The AFL use draft sanctions to punish the club, but then in the space of 5-10 years the club is uncompetitive and the hand goes out for assistance. Kind of defeats the purpose, particularly when the people who committed the offence (Trigg and Chapman) are still gainfully employed in The industry.

similar to carlton getting stripped of picks, become a basket case and the afl still giving them handouts.

surely Greater personal punishment should be dished out.
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I think you need a cascade of failure to turn into say Carlton or Brisbane at their worst. Was the Tippett penalty too harsh? I don't know, how harsh does a penalty need to be to prevent other clubs cheating in the future? I don't think the Carlton punishment in isolation was the reason they descended into a basket case, but I think the hubris of believing you can get away with it is a danger sign that the management of a club is on a slippery slope into oblivion.

Carlton has had a ridiculous amount of early picks since then, including priority picks, and the talent alone wasn't sufficient to make the club successful, or even competitive. Attitude is probably the most important aspect. Brisbane complained for a long time about players leaving and they became a revolving door for talent. Ultimately it was creating an environment where kids wanted to stay was what they were lacking.

GC undertook a similar change but they had the audacity to con the AFL out of players they didn't deserve and got away with it.

Giving a club too much talent is far worse than not helping them because once the talent is in the front door you can't take it away.

What precedence are we going to set if we allow clubs to take reckless risks with their list management in the hope that if it fails spectacularly they will be bailed out with extra talent? Would that just encourage more clubs to be more reckless in the future?

At some point there has to be some effort to restore some integrity to the competition, it just can't be about who the AFL determines is going to be gifted the opportunity through short-sighted errors of judgement. I think Crows should try and abuse the system as much as they can get away with (within the rules), because everyone else is. I think if we start to bail out strong clubs that have made bad calls then we might as well pack it in as a sport and it can just be a farce like Wrestling with predetermined outcomes for entertainment purposes only.
 
Tas said:
I think you need a cascade of failure to turn into say Carlton or Brisbane at their worst. Was the Tippett penalty too harsh? I don't know, how harsh does a penalty need to be to prevent other clubs cheating in the future? I don't think the Carlton punishment in isolation was the reason they descended into a basket case, but I think the hubris of believing you can get away with it is a danger sign that the management of a club is on a slippery slope into oblivion.

Carlton has had a ridiculous amount of early picks since then, including priority picks, and the talent alone wasn't sufficient to make the club successful, or even competitive. Attitude is probably the most important aspect. Brisbane complained for a long time about players leaving and they became a revolving door for talent. Ultimately it was creating an environment where kids wanted to stay was what they were lacking.

GC undertook a similar change but they had the audacity to con the AFL out of players they didn't deserve and got away with it.

Giving a club too much talent is far worse than not helping them because once the talent is in the front door you can't take it away.

What precedence are we going to set if we allow clubs to take reckless risks with their list management in the hope that if it fails spectacularly they will be bailed out with extra talent? Would that just encourage more clubs to be more reckless in the future?

At some point there has to be some effort to restore some integrity to the competition, it just can't be about who the AFL determines is going to be gifted the opportunity through short-sighted errors of judgement. I think Crows should try and abuse the system as much as they can get away with (within the rules), because everyone else is. I think if we start to bail out strong clubs that have made bad calls then we might as well pack it in as a sport and it can just be a farce like Wrestling with predetermined outcomes for entertainment purposes only.
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The compo picks are a joke, especially for the GC. Their issues weren't getting more talent in the door, it was about keeping it there and then developing it.

GC were smart in trading the BS pick 11 last year, knowing it could be taken away. Again this year, they have proven that pick 2 wasn't needed, and they would be fine without it.
 
Thetrader15 said:
The compo picks are a joke, especially for the GC. Their issues weren't getting more talent in the door, it was about keeping it there and then developing it.

GC were smart in trading the BS pick 11 last year, knowing it could be taken away. Again this year, they have proven that pick 2 wasn't needed, and they would be fine without it.
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Pick 11 definitely wouldn't have been taken from them this year had they held it, they would have to make finals for that.
They've won 1 game since Rowell went down, against a depleted Sydney team and drew with a depleted Essendon team, so while yes they're better than last year they're still not a good team
 
PMBangers said:
Pick 11 definitely wouldn't have been taken from them this year had they held it, they would have to make finals for that.
They've won 1 game since Rowell went down, against a depleted Sydney team and drew with a depleted Essendon team, so while yes they're better than last year they're still not a good team
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Yeah I agree with this.

I believe the ability to prelist academy prospect and the addition of the Darwin zone to their academy will have a greater impact than the Priority Picks.
 
briztoon said:
I’m just going to assume Brisbane trade up for the Western Bulldogs first round pick from now on. That gives the Dogs an extra ~460 points, and allows them to match a bid at pick 3.

Happy to draft who ever the best mid or forward mid is still available from Bruhn, Perkins, or Ford.

Then just match a bid on Blake Coleman with our 3rd round pick.
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I'd be disappointed if all we did with our first rounder is trade it for extra points.
 
flipper83 said:
I'd be disappointed if all we did with our first rounder is trade it for extra points.
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What are you thinking you might do with it.

You can tag me on your board if you discussed it there.

My only caveat would be, if you do something else with it, apart from trading up to pick 1, you’re likely sacrificing next years first round pick to pay off a draft deficit.
 
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