Autopsy AFL 2021 Round 4 - Swans v Bombers Thurs April 8th 7:20pm EST (SCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Swans by a goal or less

    Votes: 2 3.3%
  • Bombers by a goal or less

    Votes: 2 3.3%
  • Swans by 7 - 20

    Votes: 19 31.1%
  • Bombers by 7 - 20

    Votes: 4 6.6%
  • Swans by a lot

    Votes: 29 47.5%
  • Bombers by a lot

    Votes: 4 6.6%
  • Draw

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Total voters
    61
  • Poll closed .

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3 more inside 50's despite winning the clearances by 23. It's not an effective metric. Hasn't been since Hawthorn's dynasty. Also free kicks actually count as contested possessions. So effectively minus 13 contested ball from their tally.

Correct, plus with the standing on the mark rule means that a free kick will almost always lead to another possession. Either a handball receive or uncontested mark.
 
Second Hickey one was HTB obviously.

But then there was a plain as day high tackle on Gulden, 20m out, directly in front that wasn't paid.
I remember that one, umpire was just caught on the wrong side.
 

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It's a big enough outlier for a club to send the AFL a please explain.

If you said at the start of the round an umpire would call 16-1 against a club every person here would say it should be looked in to.

So should the AFL also look into the 2016 Grand final with a final FK count of 20-8 against the swans who didnt receive a single free for 2 1/2 qtrs and apparently one ump issued frees 10-0 or something?
 
And blatant missed free kicks in front of goal too. So yeah, 16 free kicks to 1 by that umpire is atrocious in context.
I've highlighted five clear missed frees to Sydney in 15 metre range of goals including in the last quarter, what are the blatant ones for Essendon?
 
Yeah for sure. I’m not one of those people that think the AFL push an agenda onto umpires to influence games but it’s very likely that the umpire got caught up in the crowd noise or something like that.

Exactly. If there is a choice between incompetence or conspiracy 99.999% of the time it is incompetence.

What would be nice is if umpires were worded up and trained to ignore the crowd noise. I have umpired under 10s before and that was very difficult. There is so much happening around the ball that you miss so much. It is amazing how small your field of vision is. So when the crowd draws attention to something or doesn't it would make a massive difference. Not sure what the solution is. However, they are all wired up. So it would be nice if they had the constant input from another umpire watching the game in the stands and another watching some screens. Get all perspectives.
 
Exactly. If there is a choice between incompetence or conspiracy 99.999% of the time it is incompetence.

What would be nice is if umpires were worded up and trained to ignore the crowd noise. I have umpired under 10s before and that was very difficult. There is so much happening around the ball that you miss so much. It is amazing how small your field of vision is. So when the crowd draws attention to something or doesn't it would make a massive difference. Not sure what the solution is. However, they are all wired up. So it would be nice if they had the constant input from another umpire watching the game in the stands and another watching some screens. Get all perspectives.

More resources and training thats the first step that would help.
Make it professional second step that would massively help.
Hold them accountable if they have a poor performance review it and dont put that umpire in crucial/big game.

Cricket does it fairly well holds the poor umpires accountable and rewards the ones that make good decisions with Ashes series, World Cup finals etc.
 
I've highlighted five clear missed frees to Sydney in 15 metre range of goals including in the last quarter, what are the blatant ones for Essendon?

You're talking about the "too high when tackling a man who is going to ground"?

Everyone talks about the Hickey one in the ruck, how in general play he dropped the ball in a tackle twice in the last quarter on the forward flank for Essendon (on the broadcast side). Blatant free kicks that should be directly lead to inside 50s for Essendon that then led to Sydney taking it the other way.

WIth 47seconds to go in 3rd quarter:
Logan McDonald picks the ball up from a spoil half side steps one player, gets tackled, gets his arms free, then goes to ground ... ball up .. should have been HTB
Ball out of bounds after stoppage .. throw in .. nothing controversial here
Snelling snaps the ball to the hot spot from the throw in ..
Waterman thrown to the ground in the marking contest (could have been paid but I wouldn't have)
Tippa runs onto the spill ... gets tackled to the ground before he picks it up ... should have been a holding free kick 20m from goal
Parker then picks up the ball and throws it out ... meh
Then Tippa dives at the ball and is struck high should have been too high to tippa near the boundary
Kennedy takes the ball on his knees. Tipps is also low and tackles with one arm around his upper back and the other around bicep/shoulder it slips high .. so umpire Craig Fleer pays it too high.
Now 19 seconds left and Kennedy clears with long kick from free kick.

This is indicative of a series of infringements by Sydney let go followed by a very soft free kick being paid to them.

No one expects the free kick numbers to be exactly even. However, a discrepancy like 29-16 is indicative of very serious "rub of the green". More than enough to make a difference in a 3 point game.

I can't stand it when people say it is an AFL conspiracy. However, to deny that a series of umpire indiscretions or mistakes can go one way and influence the game is just stupid. I know I feel a little dirty when Essendon is clearly getting the rub of the green .. like we were in patches against Hawthorn during the first half of round 1.
 
More resources and training thats the first step that would help.
Make it professional second step that would massively help.
Hold them accountable if they have a poor performance review it and dont put that umpire in crucial/big game.

Cricket does it fairly well holds the poor umpires accountable and rewards the ones that make good decisions with Ashes series, World Cup finals etc.

A workmate of mine is an AFL umpire. He tells me they do all that.

Last year they were full-time professionals in the bubble, do you think they were much better? It is about what they're focussing on when doing their reviews. It is also about getting support on the ground because it is very hard. I suggest everyone volunteer to umpire a local junior game. They're kids who are just playing, they aren't trying to bend every rule because their career relies upon it.
 
My main complaint re the umps was actually Warner fending off (which is his prior op), then getting tackled and the ball being dislodged in tackle, which therefore should be illegal disposal (even though it was dislodged in tackle it's a free because once you have prior op it's on you to dispose of it legally). This happened at least twice and was never called.

Other than the Hickey out of the ruck I didn't think the game was too bad. A lot of 50-50s didn't go our way but they weren't unreasonable, this is what home ground advantage does, umps aren't going to pay frees when its reasonable for them to interpret it either way. Port got way worse treatment at West Coast the other week but no one cared coz they got dominated anyway.
 

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You're talking about the "too high when tackling a man who is going to ground"?
Gulden was pulled back by his shoulder and neck and wasn't going to ground, which occured after he was hip and shouldered in the back in a contest and before McGrath made front on contact with Mills to spoil a mark.

Three clear as day calls missed right in front of the Swans goal
WIth 47seconds to go in 3rd quarter:
Logan McDonald picks the ball up from a spoil half side steps one player, gets tackled, gets his arms free, then goes to ground ... ball up .. should have been HTB
Ball out of bounds after stoppage .. throw in .. nothing controversial here
Snelling snaps the ball to the hot spot from the throw in ..
Waterman thrown to the ground in the marking contest (could have been paid but I wouldn't have)
Tippa runs onto the spill ... gets tackled to the ground before he picks it up ... should have been a holding free kick 20m from goal
Parker then picks up the ball and throws it out ... meh
Then Tippa dives at the ball and is struck high should have been too high to tippa near the boundary
Kennedy takes the ball on his knees. Tipps is also low and tackles with one arm around his upper back and the other around bicep/shoulder it slips high .. so umpire Craig Fleer pays it too high.
Now 19 seconds left and Kennedy clears with long kick from free kick.
I've addressed this one previously and you have a very generous recollection of it in Essendon's favour. Where you say Tippa was tackled without it, he actually went headfirst over the ball and into Kennedy's knees, no free for low contact called, no free called for Parker getting dragged back by his neck in that passage of play either.

But sure, let's call this one a free to Tippa 30 out in the pocket. It's balanced out by the three atrocious misses against Sydney at the start of the fourth which would have given a shot right in front.

What else do you have?
 
Ummm righto:

EFC v Swans....
-26 contested poss
-23 clearances
+19 clangers.
-8 scoring shots

There is your game.

23 + clearances, only 3 + inside 50s. Pretty worthless to dominate if it doesn’t convert to scoring opportunities.
 
First one: No prior. Ball comes out in the tackle
2nd one: Was gone for all money, but Hickey's chase saved it. Showed genuine intent to stop it going out and finished up maybe 5m off the ball when it goes over.
3rd one: 50/50 whether or not he had prior. Takes barely 2 steps and tackled barely 2secs after grabbing it. Also making enough arm movements to be seen as a genuine attempt to get rid of it.
4th one: Not even sure what we're looking at there??? High contact? If so, nothing in it.
Last one: Tried to fend off and was caught. Should have been HTB.

Problem is all of those incidents happened the other way and were paid multiple times, HTB on Guelfi and Waterman where they had no prior, insufficient intent calls where we had players within 5 meters, Swans blokes being held and the umps see it, our players being held and nothing Papley and Francis calls the most notable.
 
Problem is all of those incidents happened the other way and were paid multiple times, HTB on Guelfi and Waterman where they had no prior, insufficient intent calls where we had players within 5 meters, Swans blokes being held and the umps see it, our players being held and nothing Papley and Francis calls the most notable.

There were two clear cases where there were multiple frees that should have been paid against Essendon from point blank range which weren't that for all money would have ended up in two goals, so this isn't the one way traffic being claimed.
 
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