Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[Pure_Ownage]

I have a feeling that if Curtin is still available at our 1st pick, WCE will offer thier FR1 for our pick.

Wishful thinking?

I would take it if they offered their fr1 for 8 straight up but i doubt they offer that deal.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

More likely Fremantle who have 3 future 1st rounders

2 of those wont be early enough to interest us.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Melb take Caddy then it seems almost certain that Curtin falls to us unless WC are prepared to trade their FF to GWS to secure him.

If they don’t offer that trade up (if they don’t offer it to GWS, they obviously won’t for us - unless GWS knock back the offer which I think would be unlikely) then we are faced with a choice of taking him or trading back with another team for a later pick plus FF you’d think.

Gws could trade 7 to anyone for the right deal (say adel who take curtin).

 

[cats_09]

Port Adelaide ruckman Scott Lycett

29

Scott Lycett

Age

33

Ht

203cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.6

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

6.3

4star

CL

2.6

4star

HO

19.0

5star

D

11.3

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

5.7

3star

CL

4.2

5star

HO

24.7

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

5.0

5star

is weighing up a decision to play on next year at a third club after strongly considering retirement.

Lycett, 31, has been linked with an opportunity to continue his career at Richmond, St Kilda and Collingwood on a cut-price wage.

However, the West Coast premiership big man was undecided on his future after initially indicating to Port Adelaide officials in his exit meeting he may retire after some knee problems in 2023

 

[year of the cat]

Gws could trade 7 to anyone for the right deal (say adel who take curtin).

This is true. Interesting that all the talk has been around Adel talking to us. Does that indicate that they expect GWS to hold their pick?

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Catching up on a few pages...


Neale was more a Ruck/Forward when drafted, rather than a Forward/Ruck. It's just that we have played as a Key Forward mostly in the VFL, and we have plans for him to be a Key Forward/Ruck option.

Stanley also was traded by us primarily to be used as the 2nd Key Forward behind Hawkins, and to chop out in the Ruck. It just turned out he was better in the Ruck with some time.



I was hoping Leake wouldn't get any wraps online. I watched his highlights a few weeks back and noticed a few things to like about the way he moves and plays. To me, him and Wilson have a similar projection, and when I watched both in the highlights, even though Leake statistically doesn't match Wilson, I thought Leake had the higher ceiling.

I probably would consider that trade with Crows, and I would have Leake as first choice outside the Top 10 with our first pick. I think he will be there around Pick 15 at the latest.
I thought Shoenmaker would be a good player, as he has a big engine and a great kick, but I think his lack of pace "might" get found out at AFL level. Schoenmaker is a better natural footy player than ZZ, but ZZ has the better physical attributes to play different roles for us. I think Schoenmaker will be available at 20, and ZZ by 30 at latest. We might not go for either, if we take BVD with one our last picks in the draft as a mature KPD.
The other bloke I have with a high ceiling is Charlie Edwards, and I think he will be available around 20-30 range, as he looks like a very good finisher and has the high end running action, a bit similar to Leake. You get Leake and Edwards running at full pace, and they will pull away from opponents. Imho, both are big sizes 187cm and 191cm... Jack Crisp, Mitch Duncan, Isaac Smith types. But maybe you only take one or the other, as we already have Holmes.
We do need to address clearances, and maybe just with the picks we have you take Stevens. But say we don't pick him and it's around Pick 35-40 in the draft and he hasn't been called out, do you do a live trade swap around then and offer a F3+F4? And see if someone bites. I'd rather keep our F2, as we could very well be a bottom 4-6 club next season, or could be really good, it's a hard one to say.

Some of those contested bests you mention are actually not that slow. Oliver is definitely not slow, has enough pace to play outside, when he's at full stretch he would be the fastest in that list. Worpel, B Crouch, Viney are not that slow either, but not line breakers if that's what you meant by that.

George Stevens isn't as fast as Oliver, Worpel, B Crouch, Viney, nor Wines... Cunnington is slow, but has a quick first few steps. But Stevens probably sits around the bottom end of that list of players for pace, like Green, Steele, Ziebell.

Pace is extremely interesting at AFL level.
Raw pace like Petrucelle and Holmes is easy to identify- give them the ball in space and catch me if you can. It’s exciting but in reality doesn’t happen on many occasions in games.

The real action happens mostly over 2- 15 metres with a few variables that determine the outcome IMO.

Firstly - are you moving when you get the footy? Even the quickest guys will get caught if they are stationary when they get the pill. So a slightly slower guy who is moving when taking possession can actually look much quicker in a possession chain.
Secondly - can you find space , shimmy or sidestep when you take possession - gives you vital seconds to make decisions- Pendlebury and Naicos don’t look quick but their attributes counter pace and make them super effective.
You then have a rare beast like Danger who has power and pace to burn plus incredible footy smarts

Pace is important but so is endurance these days.
No doubt recruiters will be all over this

 

[Lana]

Do you have a link to any of these analyses out of interest? I'd be curious to have a look

They would have to account for the constrained nature of the data; there's some inherent co-dependency in there. e.g., salary caps have a fixed total, and there are only ever 22 players in a team. Therefore, 3 players on $300k don't necessarily equal 1 player on $900k, or 3 players that play 50 games don't equal 1 player that plays 150 games, if you know what I mean.

It is hard to work out a good measure for value, I generally use expected games played, which is less than ideal, some really medicore player luck into a long career. The AFL used how much the players got paid.

The inital regession had a R2 of over 0.7. Which is much better than what I was getting from career games played at 0.2 (changing it games at club and games at club + trade value, didn't change much, made early pick a bit more valuable)

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

Other than the really early picks, draft picks are really positively skewed, with a really high bust rate.

For a pick in 50s you might get 2 high earners, 2 mid earners and 6 busts

I couldn't find the NFL video but essentially it had a graph with the same shape.

An example of the shape situation, regardless of the variable you use, they, I think it is a behavour of how draft distribute talent in large team sports. Someones probably done a PHD about it somewhere.

 

[Lana]

Pace is extremely interesting at AFL level.
Raw pace like Petrucelle and Holmes is easy to identify- give them the ball in space and catch me if you can. It’s exciting but in reality doesn’t happen on many occasions in games.

The real action happens mostly over 2- 15 metres with a few variables that determine the outcome IMO.

Firstly - are you moving when you get the footy? Even the quickest guys will get caught if they are stationary when they get the pill. So a slightly slower guy who is moving when taking possession can actually look much quicker in a possession chain.
Secondly - can you find space , shimmy or sidestep when you take possession - gives you vital seconds to make decisions- Pendlebury and Naicos don’t look quick but their attributes counter pace and make them super effective.
You then have a rare beast like Danger who has power and pace to burn plus incredible footy smarts

Pace is important but so is endurance these days.
No doubt recruiters will be all over this

I don't think sprinter like pace is required, but you did need a functional ability to cover grass when needed. When you are at such an elite level, minor difference between players can have a large difference in outcome. Its finger nail stuff.

 

[Vivy]

It is hard to work out a good measure for value, I generally use expected games played, which is less than ideal, some really medicore player luck into a long career. The AFL used how much the players got paid.

The inital regession had a R2 of over 0.7. Which is much better than what I was getting from career games played at 0.2 (changing it games at club and games at club + trade value, didn't change much, made early pick a bit more valuable)

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

Other than the really early picks, draft picks are really positively skewed, with a really high bust rate.

For a pick in 50s you might get 2 high earners, 2 mid earners and 6 busts

I couldn't find the NFL video but essentially it had a graph with the same shape.

An example of the shape situation, regardless of the variable you use, they, I think it is a behavour of how draft distribute talent in large team sports. Someones probably done a PHD about it somewhere.


View attachment 1840265

This may be the video you're referring to. Has a similar graph from memory.

 

[Lana]

This may be the video you're referring to. Has a similar graph from memory.

That was the graph

 

[cats_09]

No mention of us upgrading a rookie at this stage

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That's fair. I think people often overrate the value of a pick in the teens just because it's a 'first rounder'.

But those comparisons aren't great; there's no way WCE are trading 1 for 18, 19, 20 like that example and miss out on the elite talent.

The only scenario they trade 1 is one where they'd get pick 2 back with some later first rounders (or future firsts) from North, for example. So, they wouldn't be giving up a pick in the very top end of the draft. North last year are a good example, traded 1 but got 2 back.

They are only trading 1 if its for 2 and 3. Nothing else is getting accepted.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

This is true. Interesting that all the talk has been around Adel talking to us. Does that indicate that they expect GWS to hold their pick?

Adel are interesting. They asked to keep borlase another year as rookie afl said no. So he has to be upgraded or delisted. To upgrade they will need to free a list spot so im assuming they are happy to trade up and consolidate picks.
Gws are unknown..i can see them taking osullivan at 7 equally i can see them selling curtin to the best offer. I can see adel trading up for a key back.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Catching up on a few pages...


Neale was more a Ruck/Forward when drafted, rather than a Forward/Ruck. It's just that we have played as a Key Forward mostly in the VFL, and we have plans for him to be a Key Forward/Ruck option.

Stanley also was traded by us primarily to be used as the 2nd Key Forward behind Hawkins, and to chop out in the Ruck. It just turned out he was better in the Ruck with some time.



I was hoping Leake wouldn't get any wraps online. I watched his highlights a few weeks back and noticed a few things to like about the way he moves and plays. To me, him and Wilson have a similar projection, and when I watched both in the highlights, even though Leake statistically doesn't match Wilson, I thought Leake had the higher ceiling.

I probably would consider that trade with Crows, and I would have Leake as first choice outside the Top 10 with our first pick. I think he will be there around Pick 15 at the latest.
I thought Shoenmaker would be a good player, as he has a big engine and a great kick, but I think his lack of pace "might" get found out at AFL level. Schoenmaker is a better natural footy player than ZZ, but ZZ has the better physical attributes to play different roles for us. I think Schoenmaker will be available at 20, and ZZ by 30 at latest. We might not go for either, if we take BVD with one our last picks in the draft as a mature KPD.
The other bloke I have with a high ceiling is Charlie Edwards, and I think he will be available around 20-30 range, as he looks like a very good finisher and has the high end running action, a bit similar to Leake. You get Leake and Edwards running at full pace, and they will pull away from opponents. Imho, both are big sizes 187cm and 191cm... Jack Crisp, Mitch Duncan, Isaac Smith types. But maybe you only take one or the other, as we already have Holmes.
We do need to address clearances, and maybe just with the picks we have you take Stevens. But say we don't pick him and it's around Pick 35-40 in the draft and he hasn't been called out, do you do a live trade swap around then and offer a F3+F4? And see if someone bites. I'd rather keep our F2, as we could very well be a bottom 4-6 club next season, or could be really good, it's a hard one to say.

Some of those contested bests you mention are actually not that slow. Oliver is definitely not slow, has enough pace to play outside, when he's at full stretch he would be the fastest in that list. Worpel, B Crouch, Viney are not that slow either, but not line breakers if that's what you meant by that.

George Stevens isn't as fast as Oliver, Worpel, B Crouch, Viney, nor Wines... Cunnington is slow, but has a quick first few steps. But Stevens probably sits around the bottom end of that list of players for pace, like Green, Steele, Ziebell.

The club reps on the trading floor expressly told a reporter, literally within minutes of the trade, that Stanley was traded in as a ruckman.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

No mention of us upgrading a rookie at this stage

I saw an article recently saying we need to elevate someone from the cat b list to either the rookie or main list since we signed Furphy.
Does anyone know if that’s correct?
Mullin or Clohesy I’d be going with Clohesy if we need to as Mullin showed something but Clohesy more likely to make it.

 

[year of the cat]

Adel are interesting. They asked to keep borlase another year as rookie afl said no. So he has to be upgraded or delisted. To upgrade they will need to free a list spot so im assuming they are happy to trade up and consolidate picks.
Gws are unknown..i can see them taking osullivan at 7 equally i can see them selling curtin to the best offer. I can see adel trading up for a key back.

With Adel that being the case, they will want to consolidate 2 picks this year rather than offering a FF as part of any trade it would appear.

Edit - you’d think it will be 8 and 25 for their first 3 picks if we do a trade.

 

[Two Planks]

With Adel that being the case, they will want to consolidate 2 picks this year rather than offering a FF as part of any trade it would appear.

Edit - you’d think it will be 8 and 25 for their first 3 picks if we do a trade.

We might have to throw in a future 4th rounder for some late points for them next year

 

[Turbocat]

With Adel that being the case, they will want to consolidate 2 picks this year rather than offering a FF as part of any trade it would appear.

Edit - you’d think it will be 8 and 25 for their first 3 picks if we do a trade.

8 and 25... for 10,14 and 20 (before bids). ... I would think we would have to look long and hard at that deal. Yes we miss on player 8 and 9 ... but for the sake of two positions we gain a fair amount.

Of course ... if Curtin gets thru to 8 then we may not be as happy with the deal. Thats part and parcel of trading.

 

[Turbocat]

It will be one of the more intriguing positions on night one when we get to our pick. Because regardless of the scenario we are faced with there will be offers from clubs to trade out and probably into next years draft. Have to say I’ll probably be a little disappointed if we trade out if Curtin is available but probably this time next year I’ll be celebrating. But I tend to think “a bird in the hand…” when it comes to the draft. If we trade into a FF there’s always uncertainty that the pick you are hoping for it to become won’t actually eventuate.

We lack all the info on how the clusb is thinking . Do they want to attack the draft ... or are they just after an extra pick or two being linked to Smith and perhaps others.

Id imagine number 1 next year would be not as desirable as this year.... but it would still reap a heck of hand. You are right ..its very different to last year when it was almost locked to what we would do with 7

 

[Shadow89]

I saw an article recently saying we need to elevate someone from the cat b list to either the rookie or main list since we signed Furphy.
Does anyone know if that’s correct?
Mullin or Clohesy I’d be going with Clohesy if we need to as Mullin showed something but Clohesy more likely to make it.

Nah, we had this discussion a while back, but, you're allowed to have 6 rookies on your list. In recent times, they changed it so you could have 3 Cat B and 3 Cat A Rooks, as opposed to only the 2 with 4 Cat A. Means we probably just keep Mullin and Clohesy as is, now that we've added Furphy.

Also means that we probably do take 5 ND picks this year and leave two for the SSP/DFA, meaning we may still keep Kroeger or delist - giving us 7 free senior list spots and 1 free CAT A rookie spot:

Senior out (6 free, possibly 7):

Kroeger (Pending)
Menegola
Ceglar
Ratugolea
Simpson
Whyte
I. Smith

Rookie out:

Riccardi

Rookie list split (1 free):

Cat A -

Dempsey
Murdoch

Cat B -

Mullin
Clohesy
Furphy

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I saw an article recently saying we need to elevate someone from the cat b list to either the rookie or main list since we signed Furphy.
Does anyone know if that’s correct?
Mullin or Clohesy I’d be going with Clohesy if we need to as Mullin showed something but Clohesy more likely to make it.

I think technically you can have 3 cat b rookies but then it means we can only have 3 cat A rookies (murdoch dempsey hardie) so we would be taking no rookies only senior list players.
I assume we will elevate dempsey and have one cat A spot.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Im pleased to hear that

My personal opinion , and im not bagging the 2 time Premiership coach , but i just thought it was a little bit mean spirited , particularly in his 1st month at the club when his VFL form was allright , to not give him a go as the sub , i mean Geel wernt playing flash football far from it

They brought him all the way across from SA mid season , i think quite a few coaches ( considering Geelongs spot on the ladder at the time ) look we will give him a shot as the sub and see what he does

I mean he gave Stringer ,George Bradbury from Tassie and not forgetting the bloke who use to crash the packs and thats about it ,they were blooody ordinary but he gave them a game

I'd say if CS knew we wouldn't be playing finals, he probably would have. Also been pretty harsh to young Dempsey and Knevvit this season tbh...

 

[cats_09]

Nah, we had this discussion a while back, but, you're allowed to have 6 rookies on your list. In recent times, they changed it so you could have 3 Cat B and 3 Cat A Rooks, as opposed to only the 2 with 4 Cat A. Means we probably just keep Mullin and Clohesy as is, now that we've added Furphy.

Also means that we probably do take 5 ND picks this year and leave two for the SSP/DFA, meaning we may still keep Kroeger or delist - giving us 7 free senior list spots and 1 free CAT A rookie spot:

Senior out (6 free, possibly 7):

Kroeger (Pending)
Menegola
Ceglar
Ratugolea
Simpson
Whyte
I. Smith

Rookie out:

Riccardi

Rookie list split (1 free):

Cat A -

Dempsey
Murdoch

Cat B -

Mullin
Clohesy
Furphy

Don't forget that Hardie is also on the rookie list, and is being re-signed for next season

 

[year of the cat]

8 and 25... for 10,14 and 20 (before bids). ... I would think we would have to look lonhg and hard at that deal. Yes we miss on player 8 and 9 ... but for the sake of two positions we gain a fair amount.

Of course ... if Curtin gets thru to 8 then we may not be as happy with the deal. Thats part and parcel of trading.

I’m doing it unless Curtin or Sanders fall to us. Caddy or O’Sullivan …. I’m probably doing the trade.

 

[D BRIDGE]