Review Pr(O)logue Round, 2024 - Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton

[martinson]

Could do a Beveridge. Or learn from his old mate Clarko and call opposition players **********s

Well Bevo got rid of Tom Morris.

You can't say it didn't work.

 

[M Malice]

Dom Fay made a good point on The Roar Deal today, not verbatim. >

Maybe this group of players are just not good enough as a collective to win the flag, we might be playing as good as we are capable of, sometimes that is the way it is, your opposition is better. You give 100% in preparation but so do a lot of other sides.
____________________________
That is why it is important to enjoy the whole journey and not hyperventilate and obsess over getting to the destination ie. a Flag, it has been a fantastic, enjoyable journey since Fages took over.

 

[M Malice]

Well Bevo got rid of Tom Morris.

You can't say it didn't work.

Tom is back, apparently he is headlining a Channel 9 Melbourne advertising campaign now, saw it on Footy Classified last night.

 

[martinson]

Dom Fay made a good point on The Roar Deal today, not verbatim. >

Maybe this group of players are just not good enough as a collective to win the flag, we might be playing as good as we are capable of, sometimes that is the way it is, your opposition is better. You give 100% in preparation but so do a lot of other sides.
____________________________
That is why it is important to enjoy the whole journey and not hyperventilate and obsess over getting to the destination ie. a Flag, it has been a fantastic, enjoyable journey since Fages took over.

I've been saying that for ages. Mainly because I thought Fitzroy had great players when they couldn't win a game. You tend to overrate your own players. Well most people do.

But we came within a kick of winning the flag so clearly in that year we were actually good enough. Luck and tweaking our tactics. It doesn't take much.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Agree. Anyone who might be in the gun will be given a chance or chances . That's been the policy ever since Fagan came along.

It's not as if we have anyone banging the door down on what we've seen in the pre season.

If we lose again then there could be a change or two.

I hope we don't rush Connor back from a hammy. His role became a lot more important after Friday.

Simple. One would be Payne out, Gardiner plays back.

 

[Gadzorks]

Lachie Neale would have spoken with the consent and authority of the club. Better to come from the coach though. Was Neale playing ‘bad cop’ to Fagan’s ‘good cop’? Selection will tell us a lot this week.

It's on field issues that are our problem.

So totally appropriate for a captain to be demanding players meet standards. Standards that will have been developed within the playing group.

This is Captain Lachie's line in the same moment. Hopefully it's a historic moment leading to greater things.

 

[Chief]

 

[On the quiet]

I know you cop flak for Lester 3KZ but fwiiw I agree with you.

I've loved the way Froggy goes about it these last 20 or so games.

The scribes on here go out of their way to pick up any faults in his game but don't apply the same rigorous scrutiny to a few others who maybe could take a leaf out of his effort.

I know he's not the most gifted player going around but he makes the best out of what he has and has made himself a lot better than I ever thought he would be.

I don't go over the top and knock Lester, in fact my post of late have stated he is doing his role, that is why at 30+ years of age he is arguably keeping Prior out of the backline. I haven't read too many post that are too critical of Lester, but there are plenty whipping Hipwood, Payne and others at times.

We made the GF last year and lost by 4 points in one of the great GFs. We lost by 1 point to a top 4 team in our first game and we make that up by beating Hawthorne later in May at Marvel, a team we usually lose to.

IMO there will very little changes for Perth.

IMO Lester is doing his role, he matches up on the oppositions 4th, 5th or 6th best forward, and performs a role. I suspect others on our list could also, but Lesters composure is an advantage, so he currently stays.

 

[Gadzorks]

I hate tipping comps cause I'm super bad, but have to do the work comp thing. Side note - Why do we have to interact with work people? It should be like BF - anonymous, connect when we feel like it. Bah humbug.

Anyway, I got 1/3 last week so on my normal trajectory. Anyone want to share a strong opinion on dees v Hawks and geelong v saints?

 

[M Malice]

I hate tipping comps cause I'm super bad, but have to do the work comp thing. Side note - Why do we have to interact with work people? It should be like BF - anonymous, connect when we feel like it. Bah humbug.

Anyway, I got 1/3 last week so on my normal trajectory. Anyone want to share a strong opinion on dees v Hawks and geelong v saints?

Yer, people are overrated.

 

[Dalions]

Yer, people are overrated.

Who needs people?

 

[Nathan Barley]

‘What have they learnt’: Stars on notice as damning vision shows Lions blew it late... just like in GF

‘What have they learnt’: Stars on notice as damning vision shows Lions blew it late... just like in GF

www.foxsports.com.au

Pretty good summary

Also can see in the last piece of footage Lester failing to drop into the hole in front of McKay and Curnow. Needed to call our spare man over to guard Cottrell and drop in front of the obvious targets.

 

[Grasshopper17]

This was a complicated game to analyse. So as I am a simpleton I have broken the game up into what I saw as its 5 phases. Also the stat graphics available on Twitter have improved again, so it's not all bad.



Phase #1 - Q1 0:00 to Q1 24:00 (Brisbane 7-1 43 v Carlton 1-0 6)

Watching this unfold I thought "this is some of the best footy I've ever seen". "Frightening" was the word that came to mind, because that was the word people used to describe our dynasty team back in the day. This was every bit as good as that.

The next morning I thought I was overexaggerating until I heard people in the media say exactly the same thing. It was brutal, relentless and skilful, but the feature I noted the most was our decision making. It has improved out of sight to the point that our players barely made a wrong call ball in hand, or defending, during this entire period. Whatever we want to say about our coaches, this period of the game was proof enough that our coaching group has a fair idea what they are doing.

By the time this period ended, we'd kicked 5 goals in 5 minutes of playing time, Carlton was absolutely on the rack, ripe to be killed off there and then, yet...



Phase #2 - Q1 24:00 to QT (Brisbane 0-1 1 v Carlton 1-0 6)

At this point we put a man behind the ball! I wasn't even watching for it, but I suddenly realised we weren't able to lock the ball in our forward line quite as easily, and a quick count of players at the first mid-zone boundary throw-in revealed why. How do I know it was our decision to play a spare and not Carlton's? It's because we only had 5 forwards. Had Carlton initiated it we'd have had 6 forwards to their 7 defenders. To me, in the moment this beggared belief. I've doctored the score worm for the game:



This rudimentary defacing of a chart is something that is used (seriously) in finance by traders called a "channel". While an investment's price remains inside that channel, it is considered to be following a trend. Once it breaks out of that channel, the trend is considered broken. Traders often use this as their signals to buy or sell. It's not always that simple - if it was, everyone would be doing it. But it's a legitimate and very commonly used guide.

In a footy sense, this "channel" was our momentum. We were absolutely destroying Carlton, but then we essentially neutered ourselves by ceasing to do what was working for us, and switching to a more defensive game style. You can see from that channel, had our momentum persisted for the rest of the quarter, our lead would have been in the vicinity of 50-60 points (those horizontal lines are 30 points each). Yes, Carlton still may have come back from there, but as we saw on Saturday down at Carrara, there are only so many goals you can kick in a hurry before your comeback starts to run out of steam, and (equally importantly) the other team is able to gather itself and respond.

We saw our lead of 46 points become a 3 point deficit. That's a 49 point turnaround. On Saturday, Gold Coast saw its 67 point lead become a 24 point lead. That's a 43 point turnaround. It is absolutely in the same ball park - the key difference is that the Suns kept the foot on the pedal long enough to create an impossible margin to overcome.

An example much closer to home came in Round 21 of 2022, also against Carlton. Our 57 point lead at 3 quarter time became just 15, with just enough time for the Blues to pinch the win. But at 15 points down, Carlton still had to attack. This meant taking risks, giving us opportunities to score the other way. Eventually we did, kicking the last 3 goals to win by 33 points. But imagine if our lead had only been 45 points that day at 3 quarter time, instead of 57.

So I really believe that even though the 2nd and 3rd quarters have been highlighted by all and sundry, our problems started in the 1st quarter, and I would go as far as to say that going defensive in the first quarter was one of the 3 things that cost us the win. Even the goal they kicked during this time - it came from our skill error caused by having too many blokes in the same space. Oscar dropped a mark when he should have left it for a team mate, got pinged for holding the ball and they converted.

To me it speaks to Fages' inherent conservatism. We have heard him say on multiple occasions how he feels like he coaches better when he thinks we're going to lose. I can absolutely relate, and this goes way back to my (very bad) playing days. I would never feel confident of victory until time on of the last quarter almost. But it seems the way he (or he and the coaching group) and I manifest these emotions are very different.

The impression I seem to get from Fages runs something along the lines of, "OK we've had a good period, we've probably got a bit lucky, the other mob are probably due to get on top now, let's park the bus a bit". What sort of message does this send to our players? "Our coach doesn't think we're actually that good and what we've been doing for the last 10 minutes has been lucky bullsh!t"?

I just don't rate this philosophy. Have more faith!

I once read/heard (can't remember which) a fascinating interview with Adam Gilchrist. Those of us lucky enough to remember his entire career probably remember him as a freewheeling, devil-may-care player who was often at his best in a crisis, changed the cricket world and set new standards for wicketkeeper-batsmen. But this clashed almost completely with how he came across as a person. When he was interviewed, he mentioned how he was absolutely terrified of getting out. So his batting philosophy became "strewth, these guys are pretty good, I'd better get em quickly because it's only a matter of time before they get me". So even though it seems counterintuitive, the fact he respected his opponents so much actually became the catalyst for him to bat the way he did.

I'd like to see us embrace this philosophy, instead of the reverse. Yes, it's important to respect your opponent. No, this doesn't mean you have to put men behind the ball. It should mean you take every opportunity to put the foot on the throat and drive your opponent into the dirt. Because if you don't get them, they might get you, and we saw exactly that on Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, a spare man in defence has its place. But (a) after kicking 5 goals in 5 minutes is not the time, (b) "the end of a quarter" is definitely not a good default setting and (c) we are not good at executing that tactic, as has been discussed to death here over summer. We do need to become better at it, but it's probably something best learned in-game. We'd probably need to do it for a month, like a full 120 minutes each week for 4 weeks, and while we're in the business of winning flags, we probably (hopefully) won't get such a 4-week window.



Phase #3 - Q2 0:00 to Q2 12:44 (Brisbane 2-0 12 v Carlton 0-1 1)

Largely, we picked up where we left off in Phase #1, which was pleasing. On a scale of what we saw in the 1st quarter, this was about an 8 or 9 out of 10. Up by 43 points, Eric Hipwood

30

Eric Hipwood

Age

28

Ht

204cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.5

5star

D

11.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.1

2star

G

1.1

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.4

4star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.4

5star

took a cracking contested mark, and that's when the trouble started...



Phase #4 - Q2 12:44 to Q3 15:24 (Brisbane 0-5 5 v Carlton 8-4 52)

Hipwood missed, then Cameron missed twice, and I'm a bit trigger happy with these sorts of things but I could see the cracks opening up already. I could see us getting lazy, taking bad options, and literally toying with Carlton. But because Carlton were so so shot to bits by that point, even these bad options came off for a little while, hence we kept the ball in our front half and got shots at goal. It really was a Leigh Matthews' "tip of the iceberg" moment.

But eventually, we mucked around just long enough for Carlton to regain their balance in general play, and eventually the tide turned. This chart from WheeloRatings is a cracker. Have a look how much we dominated forward territory there in the middle of the quarter, even though we didn't kick a goal after 8 minutes:



Then from time on, Carlton arguably controlled territory up to half time. The writing should have been on the wall by then - look at the 4 yellow bars to end the half.

The bizarre thing is that even to start the 3rd quarter, we had more of the ball in our front half than Carlton did. But Carlton took their chances, because we were lazy when they got it, as has been discussed by everyone, and this is the 2nd of the 3 things that cost us the match.

Then at some stage, our guys became desperate, all started going for the same ball (in the air and on the ground), running into each other, all trying to be the hero. So we completely overbalanced the other way.

But this graphic by itself should be enough to confirm to us as supporters that, strategically, our game plan will hold up against pretty much everyone this year, provided the players are able to put forth the effort to put it into practice.



Phase #5 - Q3 15:24 to FT (Brisbane 3-6 24 v Carlton 3-3 21)

Pleasingly, we were able to steady the ship mid-quarter. We didn't need 3 quarter time to come to sort ourselves out, which we might have needed in previous seasons. However, by then our confidence was pretty well shot and we had given Carlton a massive boost in that regard.

Besides the closeness of the scoreboard however this phase of the game was so underwhelming. Any semblance of game plan we had completely vanished, and the game was played completely on Carlton's terms. It looked like a Carlton game. Tough, tight, contested, straight lines, not much lateral ball use. The fact that despite this we largely controlled territory and the scoreboard (12 shots to 9) in this period, confirms my belief that Carlton are actually a bloody ordinary team strategically, and whatever they achieve this year will come on the back of hard work and a never-say-die attitude. Our kicking for goal let us down in this phase of the game, which is the 3rd thing that cost us victory.

Dalions referenced this period of the game in his very excellent Round 1 preview. Whilst I agree with most of it, I do think the fact that our game plan almost completely disintegrated into a one-on-one slog fest had a lot to do with our fitness issues, which I note Michael Whiting on the Roar Deal has FINALLY had the temerity to go on-air with (WE'VE HIT THE MAINSTREAM briztoon). Yes, we may have had a pressure rating of 201. But a quick review of Champion Data's pressure definitions is revealing:



This demonstrates that a missed tackle (simply making contact with an opponent) is worth maximum points. So I remain very sceptical of pressure rating as a relevant measure of effort. This primarily indicates to me that we paid a reasonable degree of attention to our direct opponent. However there was absolutely little spread, or initiative to create space by using the width of the ground. And how many times did we kick out on the full under minimal pressure? Those were all tired, exhausted kicks. We didn't see any of those from Carlton players.

Joey Montagna also went to town tonight on our inability to slow the game in the final 6-7 minutes of the final quarter. It's worth a watch, but I'm not so dark on them for this. Yes, some players on the field were calling for us to slow the game down, and the ball-carrier was ignoring them. This says to me we weren't all on the same page and we definitely panicked. But as above, there was still 6-7 minutes to go. We only held a 5 point lead. To my thinking, it was still appropriate at that stage to seek another goal. We also didn't play with a spare man at any stage during that period, which, considering we did in the first quarter, I find extremely strange. In fact, Carlton had a spare man in their forward line when Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

28

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

took that mark. How on earth does that happen!?

If only we had played that way for the whole 1st quarter.

 

[martinson]

This was a complicated game to analyse. So as I am a simpleton I have broken the game up into what I saw as its 5 phases. Also the stat graphics available on Twitter have improved again, so it's not all bad.



Phase #1 - Q1 0:00 to Q1 24:00 (Brisbane 7-1 43 v Carlton 1-0 6)

Watching this unfold I thought "this is some of the best footy I've ever seen". "Frightening" was the word that came to mind, because that was the word people used to describe our dynasty team back in the day. This was every bit as good as that.

The next morning I thought I was overexaggerating until I heard people in the media say exactly the same thing. It was brutal, relentless and skilful, but the feature I noted the most was our decision making. It has improved out of sight to the point that our players barely made a wrong call ball in hand, or defending, during this entire period. Whatever we want to say about our coaches, this period of the game was proof enough that our coaching group has a fair idea what they are doing.

By the time this period ended, we'd kicked 5 goals in 5 minutes of playing time, Carlton was absolutely on the rack, ripe to be killed off there and then, yet...



Phase #2 - Q1 24:00 to QT (Brisbane 0-1 1 v Carlton 1-0 6)

At this point we put a man behind the ball! I wasn't even watching for it, but I suddenly realised we weren't able to lock the ball in our forward line quite as easily, and a quick count of players at the first mid-zone boundary throw-in revealed why. How do I know it was our decision to play a spare and not Carlton's? It's because we only had 5 forwards. Had Carlton initiated it we'd have had 6 forwards to their 7 defenders. To me, in the moment this beggared belief. I've doctored the score worm for the game:

View attachment 1926950

This rudimentary defacing of a chart is something that is used (seriously) in finance by traders called a "channel". While an investment's price remains inside that channel, it is considered to be following a trend. Once it breaks out of that channel, the trend is considered broken. Traders often use this as their signals to buy or sell. It's not always that simple - if it was, everyone would be doing it. But it's a legitimate and very commonly used guide.

In a footy sense, this "channel" was our momentum. We were absolutely destroying Carlton, but then we essentially neutered ourselves by ceasing to do what was working for us, and switching to a more defensive game style. You can see from that channel, had our momentum persisted for the rest of the quarter, our lead would have been in the vicinity of 50-60 points (those horizontal lines are 30 points each). Yes, Carlton still may have come back from there, but as we saw on Saturday down at Carrara, there are only so many goals you can kick in a hurry before your comeback starts to run out of steam, and (equally importantly) the other team is able to gather itself and respond.

We saw our lead of 46 points become a 3 point deficit. That's a 49 point turnaround. On Saturday, Gold Coast saw its 67 point lead become a 24 point lead. That's a 43 point turnaround. It is absolutely in the same ball park - the key difference is that the Suns kept the foot on the pedal long enough to create an impossible margin to overcome.

An example much closer to home came in Round 21 of 2022, also against Carlton. Our 57 point lead at 3 quarter time became just 15, with just enough time for the Blues to pinch the win. But at 15 points down, Carlton still had to attack. This meant taking risks, giving us opportunities to score the other way. Eventually we did, kicking the last 3 goals to win by 33 points. But imagine if our lead had only been 45 points that day at 3 quarter time, instead of 57.

So I really believe that even though the 2nd and 3rd quarters have been highlighted by all and sundry, our problems started in the 1st quarter, and I would go as far as to say that going defensive in the first quarter was one of the 3 things that cost us the win. Even the goal they kicked during this time - it came from our skill error caused by having too many blokes in the same space. Oscar dropped a mark when he should have left it for a team mate, got pinged for holding the ball and they converted.

To me it speaks to Fages' inherent conservatism. We have heard him say on multiple occasions how he feels like he coaches better when he thinks we're going to lose. I can absolutely relate, and this goes way back to my (very bad) playing days. I would never feel confident of victory until time on of the last quarter almost. But it seems the way he (or he and the coaching group) and I manifest these emotions are very different.

The impression I seem to get from Fages runs something along the lines of, "OK we've had a good period, we've probably got a bit lucky, the other mob are probably due to get on top now, let's park the bus a bit". What sort of message does this send to our players? "Our coach doesn't think we're actually that good and what we've been doing for the last 10 minutes has been lucky bullsh!t"?

I just don't rate this philosophy. Have more faith!

I once read/heard (can't remember which) a fascinating interview with Adam Gilchrist. Those of us lucky enough to remember his entire career probably remember him as a freewheeling, devil-may-care player who was often at his best in a crisis, changed the cricket world and set new standards for wicketkeeper-batsmen. But this clashed almost completely with how he came across as a person. When he was interviewed, he mentioned how he was absolutely terrified of getting out. So his batting philosophy became "strewth, these guys are pretty good, I'd better get em quickly because it's only a matter of time before they get me". So even though it seems counterintuitive, the fact he respected his opponents so much actually became the catalyst for him to bat the way he did.

I'd like to see us embrace this philosophy, instead of the reverse. Yes, it's important to respect your opponent. No, this doesn't mean you have to put men behind the ball. It should mean you take every opportunity to put the foot on the throat and drive your opponent into the dirt. Because if you don't get them, they might get you, and we saw exactly that on Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, a spare man in defence has its place. But (a) after kicking 5 goals in 5 minutes is not the time, (b) "the end of a quarter" is definitely not a good default setting and (c) we are not good at executing that tactic, as has been discussed to death here over summer. We do need to become better at it, but it's probably something best learned in-game. We'd probably need to do it for a month, like a full 120 minutes each week for 4 weeks, and while we're in the business of winning flags, we probably (hopefully) won't get such a 4-week window.



Phase #3 - Q2 0:00 to Q2 12:44 (Brisbane 2-0 12 v Carlton 0-1 1)

Largely, we picked up where we left off in Phase #1, which was pleasing. On a scale of what we saw in the 1st quarter, this was about an 8 or 9 out of 10. Up by 43 points, Eric Hipwood took a cracking contested mark, and that's when the trouble started...



Phase #4 - Q2 12:44 to Q3 15:24 (Brisbane 0-5 5 v Carlton 8-4 52)

Hipwood missed, then Cameron missed twice, and I'm a bit trigger happy with these sorts of things but I could see the cracks opening up already. I could see us getting lazy, taking bad options, and literally toying with Carlton. But because Carlton were so so shot to bits by that point, even these bad options came off for a little while, hence we kept the ball in our front half and got shots at goal. It really was a Leigh Matthews' "tip of the iceberg" moment.

But eventually, we mucked around just long enough for Carlton to regain their balance in general play, and eventually the tide turned. This chart from WheeloRatings is a cracker. Have a look how much we dominated forward territory there in the middle of the quarter, even though we didn't kick a goal after 8 minutes:

View attachment 1927004

Then from time on, Carlton arguably controlled territory up to half time. The writing should have been on the wall by then - look at the 4 yellow bars to end the half.

The bizarre thing is that even to start the 3rd quarter, we had more of the ball in our front half than Carlton did. But Carlton took their chances, because we were lazy when they got it, as has been discussed by everyone, and this is the 2nd of the 3 things that cost us the match.

Then at some stage, our guys became desperate, all started going for the same ball (in the air and on the ground), running into each other, all trying to be the hero. So we completely overbalanced the other way.

But this graphic by itself should be enough to confirm to us as supporters that, strategically, our game plan will hold up against pretty much everyone this year, provided the players are able to put forth the effort to put it into practice.

Phase #5 - Q3 15:24 to FT (Brisbane 3-6 24 v Carlton 3-3 21)

Pleasingly, we were able to steady the ship mid-quarter. We didn't need 3 quarter time to come to sort ourselves out, which we might have needed in previous seasons. However, by then our confidence was pretty well shot and we had given Carlton a massive boost in that regard.

Besides the closeness of the scoreboard however this phase of the game was so underwhelming. Any semblance of game plan we had completely vanished, and the game was played completely on Carlton's terms. It looked like a Carlton game. Tough, tight, contested, straight lines, not much lateral ball use. The fact that despite this we largely controlled territory and the scoreboard (12 shots to 9) in this period, confirms my belief that Carlton are actually a bloody ordinary team strategically, and whatever they achieve this year will come on the back of hard work and a never-say-die attitude. Our kicking for goal let us down in this phase of the game, which is the 3rd thing that cost us victory.

Dalions referenced this period of the game in his very excellent Round 1 preview. Whilst I agree with most of it, I do think the fact that our game plan almost completely disintegrated into a one-on-one slog fest had a lot to do with our fitness issues, which I note Michael Whiting on the Roar Deal has FINALLY had the temerity to go on-air with (WE'VE HIT THE MAINSTREAM briztoon). Yes, we may have had a pressure rating of 201. But a quick review of Champion Data's pressure definitions is revealing:

View attachment 1927026

This demonstrates that a missed tackle (simply making contact with an opponent) is worth maximum points. So I remain very sceptical of pressure rating as a relevant measure of effort. This primarily indicates to me that we paid a reasonable degree of attention to our direct opponent. However there was absolutely little spread, or initiative to create space by using the width of the ground. And how many times did we kick out on the full under minimal pressure? Those were all tired, exhausted kicks. We didn't see any of those from Carlton players.

Joey Montagna also went to town tonight on our inability to slow the game in the final 6-7 minutes of the final quarter. It's worth a watch, but I'm not so dark on them for this. Yes, some players on the field were calling for us to slow the game down, and the ball-carrier was ignoring them. This says to me we weren't all on the same page and we definitely panicked. But as above, there was still 6-7 minutes to go. We only held a 5 point lead. To my thinking, it was still appropriate at that stage to seek another goal. We also didn't play with a spare man at any stage during that period, which, considering we did in the first quarter, I find extremely strange. In fact, Carlton had a spare man in their forward line when Harry McKay took that mark. How on earth does that happen!?

If only we had played that way for the whole 1st quarter.

That's a lot of work you've put in there Grasshopper. Kudos to you.

Confirmation of a few things.

We did something similar in the GF when we got on a roll in the 2nd quarter.

The positive is we only lost by a point when we basically could've wrapt it up 3 or4 ways at various stages.

So something to work on this week.

 

[Nathan Barley]

This was a complicated game to analyse. So as I am a simpleton I have broken the game up into what I saw as its 5 phases. Also the stat graphics available on Twitter have improved again, so it's not all bad.



Phase #1 - Q1 0:00 to Q1 24:00 (Brisbane 7-1 43 v Carlton 1-0 6)

Watching this unfold I thought "this is some of the best footy I've ever seen". "Frightening" was the word that came to mind, because that was the word people used to describe our dynasty team back in the day. This was every bit as good as that.

The next morning I thought I was overexaggerating until I heard people in the media say exactly the same thing. It was brutal, relentless and skilful, but the feature I noted the most was our decision making. It has improved out of sight to the point that our players barely made a wrong call ball in hand, or defending, during this entire period. Whatever we want to say about our coaches, this period of the game was proof enough that our coaching group has a fair idea what they are doing.

By the time this period ended, we'd kicked 5 goals in 5 minutes of playing time, Carlton was absolutely on the rack, ripe to be killed off there and then, yet...



Phase #2 - Q1 24:00 to QT (Brisbane 0-1 1 v Carlton 1-0 6)

At this point we put a man behind the ball! I wasn't even watching for it, but I suddenly realised we weren't able to lock the ball in our forward line quite as easily, and a quick count of players at the first mid-zone boundary throw-in revealed why. How do I know it was our decision to play a spare and not Carlton's? It's because we only had 5 forwards. Had Carlton initiated it we'd have had 6 forwards to their 7 defenders. To me, in the moment this beggared belief. I've doctored the score worm for the game:

View attachment 1926950

This rudimentary defacing of a chart is something that is used (seriously) in finance by traders called a "channel". While an investment's price remains inside that channel, it is considered to be following a trend. Once it breaks out of that channel, the trend is considered broken. Traders often use this as their signals to buy or sell. It's not always that simple - if it was, everyone would be doing it. But it's a legitimate and very commonly used guide.

In a footy sense, this "channel" was our momentum. We were absolutely destroying Carlton, but then we essentially neutered ourselves by ceasing to do what was working for us, and switching to a more defensive game style. You can see from that channel, had our momentum persisted for the rest of the quarter, our lead would have been in the vicinity of 50-60 points (those horizontal lines are 30 points each). Yes, Carlton still may have come back from there, but as we saw on Saturday down at Carrara, there are only so many goals you can kick in a hurry before your comeback starts to run out of steam, and (equally importantly) the other team is able to gather itself and respond.

We saw our lead of 46 points become a 3 point deficit. That's a 49 point turnaround. On Saturday, Gold Coast saw its 67 point lead become a 24 point lead. That's a 43 point turnaround. It is absolutely in the same ball park - the key difference is that the Suns kept the foot on the pedal long enough to create an impossible margin to overcome.

An example much closer to home came in Round 21 of 2022, also against Carlton. Our 57 point lead at 3 quarter time became just 15, with just enough time for the Blues to pinch the win. But at 15 points down, Carlton still had to attack. This meant taking risks, giving us opportunities to score the other way. Eventually we did, kicking the last 3 goals to win by 33 points. But imagine if our lead had only been 45 points that day at 3 quarter time, instead of 57.

So I really believe that even though the 2nd and 3rd quarters have been highlighted by all and sundry, our problems started in the 1st quarter, and I would go as far as to say that going defensive in the first quarter was one of the 3 things that cost us the win. Even the goal they kicked during this time - it came from our skill error caused by having too many blokes in the same space. Oscar dropped a mark when he should have left it for a team mate, got pinged for holding the ball and they converted.

To me it speaks to Fages' inherent conservatism. We have heard him say on multiple occasions how he feels like he coaches better when he thinks we're going to lose. I can absolutely relate, and this goes way back to my (very bad) playing days. I would never feel confident of victory until time on of the last quarter almost. But it seems the way he (or he and the coaching group) and I manifest these emotions are very different.

The impression I seem to get from Fages runs something along the lines of, "OK we've had a good period, we've probably got a bit lucky, the other mob are probably due to get on top now, let's park the bus a bit". What sort of message does this send to our players? "Our coach doesn't think we're actually that good and what we've been doing for the last 10 minutes has been lucky bullsh!t"?

I just don't rate this philosophy. Have more faith!

I once read/heard (can't remember which) a fascinating interview with Adam Gilchrist. Those of us lucky enough to remember his entire career probably remember him as a freewheeling, devil-may-care player who was often at his best in a crisis, changed the cricket world and set new standards for wicketkeeper-batsmen. But this clashed almost completely with how he came across as a person. When he was interviewed, he mentioned how he was absolutely terrified of getting out. So his batting philosophy became "strewth, these guys are pretty good, I'd better get em quickly because it's only a matter of time before they get me". So even though it seems counterintuitive, the fact he respected his opponents so much actually became the catalyst for him to bat the way he did.

I'd like to see us embrace this philosophy, instead of the reverse. Yes, it's important to respect your opponent. No, this doesn't mean you have to put men behind the ball. It should mean you take every opportunity to put the foot on the throat and drive your opponent into the dirt. Because if you don't get them, they might get you, and we saw exactly that on Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, a spare man in defence has its place. But (a) after kicking 5 goals in 5 minutes is not the time, (b) "the end of a quarter" is definitely not a good default setting and (c) we are not good at executing that tactic, as has been discussed to death here over summer. We do need to become better at it, but it's probably something best learned in-game. We'd probably need to do it for a month, like a full 120 minutes each week for 4 weeks, and while we're in the business of winning flags, we probably (hopefully) won't get such a 4-week window.



Phase #3 - Q2 0:00 to Q2 12:44 (Brisbane 2-0 12 v Carlton 0-1 1)

Largely, we picked up where we left off in Phase #1, which was pleasing. On a scale of what we saw in the 1st quarter, this was about an 8 or 9 out of 10. Up by 43 points, Eric Hipwood took a cracking contested mark, and that's when the trouble started...



Phase #4 - Q2 12:44 to Q3 15:24 (Brisbane 0-5 5 v Carlton 8-4 52)

Hipwood missed, then Cameron missed twice, and I'm a bit trigger happy with these sorts of things but I could see the cracks opening up already. I could see us getting lazy, taking bad options, and literally toying with Carlton. But because Carlton were so so shot to bits by that point, even these bad options came off for a little while, hence we kept the ball in our front half and got shots at goal. It really was a Leigh Matthews' "tip of the iceberg" moment.

But eventually, we mucked around just long enough for Carlton to regain their balance in general play, and eventually the tide turned. This chart from WheeloRatings is a cracker. Have a look how much we dominated forward territory there in the middle of the quarter, even though we didn't kick a goal after 8 minutes:

View attachment 1927004

Then from time on, Carlton arguably controlled territory up to half time. The writing should have been on the wall by then - look at the 4 yellow bars to end the half.

The bizarre thing is that even to start the 3rd quarter, we had more of the ball in our front half than Carlton did. But Carlton took their chances, because we were lazy when they got it, as has been discussed by everyone, and this is the 2nd of the 3 things that cost us the match.

Then at some stage, our guys became desperate, all started going for the same ball (in the air and on the ground), running into each other, all trying to be the hero. So we completely overbalanced the other way.

But this graphic by itself should be enough to confirm to us as supporters that, strategically, our game plan will hold up against pretty much everyone this year, provided the players are able to put forth the effort to put it into practice.

Phase #5 - Q3 15:24 to FT (Brisbane 3-6 24 v Carlton 3-3 21)

Pleasingly, we were able to steady the ship mid-quarter. We didn't need 3 quarter time to come to sort ourselves out, which we might have needed in previous seasons. However, by then our confidence was pretty well shot and we had given Carlton a massive boost in that regard.

Besides the closeness of the scoreboard however this phase of the game was so underwhelming. Any semblance of game plan we had completely vanished, and the game was played completely on Carlton's terms. It looked like a Carlton game. Tough, tight, contested, straight lines, not much lateral ball use. The fact that despite this we largely controlled territory and the scoreboard (12 shots to 9) in this period, confirms my belief that Carlton are actually a bloody ordinary team strategically, and whatever they achieve this year will come on the back of hard work and a never-say-die attitude. Our kicking for goal let us down in this phase of the game, which is the 3rd thing that cost us victory.

Dalions referenced this period of the game in his very excellent Round 1 preview. Whilst I agree with most of it, I do think the fact that our game plan almost completely disintegrated into a one-on-one slog fest had a lot to do with our fitness issues, which I note Michael Whiting on the Roar Deal has FINALLY had the temerity to go on-air with (WE'VE HIT THE MAINSTREAM briztoon). Yes, we may have had a pressure rating of 201. But a quick review of Champion Data's pressure definitions is revealing:

View attachment 1927026

This demonstrates that a missed tackle (simply making contact with an opponent) is worth maximum points. So I remain very sceptical of pressure rating as a relevant measure of effort. This primarily indicates to me that we paid a reasonable degree of attention to our direct opponent. However there was absolutely little spread, or initiative to create space by using the width of the ground. And how many times did we kick out on the full under minimal pressure? Those were all tired, exhausted kicks. We didn't see any of those from Carlton players.

Joey Montagna also went to town tonight on our inability to slow the game in the final 6-7 minutes of the final quarter. It's worth a watch, but I'm not so dark on them for this. Yes, some players on the field were calling for us to slow the game down, and the ball-carrier was ignoring them. This says to me we weren't all on the same page and we definitely panicked. But as above, there was still 6-7 minutes to go. We only held a 5 point lead. To my thinking, it was still appropriate at that stage to seek another goal. We also didn't play with a spare man at any stage during that period, which, considering we did in the first quarter, I find extremely strange. In fact, Carlton had a spare man in their forward line when Harry McKay took that mark. How on earth does that happen!?

If only we had played that way for the whole 1st quarter.

Carltons spare man was about 100m from the footy

 

[briztoon]

This was a complicated game to analyse. So as I am a simpleton I have broken the game up into what I saw as its 5 phases. Also the stat graphics available on Twitter have improved again, so it's not all bad.



Phase #1 - Q1 0:00 to Q1 24:00 (Brisbane 7-1 43 v Carlton 1-0 6)

Watching this unfold I thought "this is some of the best footy I've ever seen". "Frightening" was the word that came to mind, because that was the word people used to describe our dynasty team back in the day. This was every bit as good as that.

The next morning I thought I was overexaggerating until I heard people in the media say exactly the same thing. It was brutal, relentless and skilful, but the feature I noted the most was our decision making. It has improved out of sight to the point that our players barely made a wrong call ball in hand, or defending, during this entire period. Whatever we want to say about our coaches, this period of the game was proof enough that our coaching group has a fair idea what they are doing.

By the time this period ended, we'd kicked 5 goals in 5 minutes of playing time, Carlton was absolutely on the rack, ripe to be killed off there and then, yet...



Phase #2 - Q1 24:00 to QT (Brisbane 0-1 1 v Carlton 1-0 6)

At this point we put a man behind the ball! I wasn't even watching for it, but I suddenly realised we weren't able to lock the ball in our forward line quite as easily, and a quick count of players at the first mid-zone boundary throw-in revealed why. How do I know it was our decision to play a spare and not Carlton's? It's because we only had 5 forwards. Had Carlton initiated it we'd have had 6 forwards to their 7 defenders. To me, in the moment this beggared belief. I've doctored the score worm for the game:

View attachment 1926950

This rudimentary defacing of a chart is something that is used (seriously) in finance by traders called a "channel". While an investment's price remains inside that channel, it is considered to be following a trend. Once it breaks out of that channel, the trend is considered broken. Traders often use this as their signals to buy or sell. It's not always that simple - if it was, everyone would be doing it. But it's a legitimate and very commonly used guide.

In a footy sense, this "channel" was our momentum. We were absolutely destroying Carlton, but then we essentially neutered ourselves by ceasing to do what was working for us, and switching to a more defensive game style. You can see from that channel, had our momentum persisted for the rest of the quarter, our lead would have been in the vicinity of 50-60 points (those horizontal lines are 30 points each). Yes, Carlton still may have come back from there, but as we saw on Saturday down at Carrara, there are only so many goals you can kick in a hurry before your comeback starts to run out of steam, and (equally importantly) the other team is able to gather itself and respond.

We saw our lead of 46 points become a 3 point deficit. That's a 49 point turnaround. On Saturday, Gold Coast saw its 67 point lead become a 24 point lead. That's a 43 point turnaround. It is absolutely in the same ball park - the key difference is that the Suns kept the foot on the pedal long enough to create an impossible margin to overcome.

An example much closer to home came in Round 21 of 2022, also against Carlton. Our 57 point lead at 3 quarter time became just 15, with just enough time for the Blues to pinch the win. But at 15 points down, Carlton still had to attack. This meant taking risks, giving us opportunities to score the other way. Eventually we did, kicking the last 3 goals to win by 33 points. But imagine if our lead had only been 45 points that day at 3 quarter time, instead of 57.

So I really believe that even though the 2nd and 3rd quarters have been highlighted by all and sundry, our problems started in the 1st quarter, and I would go as far as to say that going defensive in the first quarter was one of the 3 things that cost us the win. Even the goal they kicked during this time - it came from our skill error caused by having too many blokes in the same space. Oscar dropped a mark when he should have left it for a team mate, got pinged for holding the ball and they converted.

To me it speaks to Fages' inherent conservatism. We have heard him say on multiple occasions how he feels like he coaches better when he thinks we're going to lose. I can absolutely relate, and this goes way back to my (very bad) playing days. I would never feel confident of victory until time on of the last quarter almost. But it seems the way he (or he and the coaching group) and I manifest these emotions are very different.

The impression I seem to get from Fages runs something along the lines of, "OK we've had a good period, we've probably got a bit lucky, the other mob are probably due to get on top now, let's park the bus a bit". What sort of message does this send to our players? "Our coach doesn't think we're actually that good and what we've been doing for the last 10 minutes has been lucky bullsh!t"?

I just don't rate this philosophy. Have more faith!

I once read/heard (can't remember which) a fascinating interview with Adam Gilchrist. Those of us lucky enough to remember his entire career probably remember him as a freewheeling, devil-may-care player who was often at his best in a crisis, changed the cricket world and set new standards for wicketkeeper-batsmen. But this clashed almost completely with how he came across as a person. When he was interviewed, he mentioned how he was absolutely terrified of getting out. So his batting philosophy became "strewth, these guys are pretty good, I'd better get em quickly because it's only a matter of time before they get me". So even though it seems counterintuitive, the fact he respected his opponents so much actually became the catalyst for him to bat the way he did.

I'd like to see us embrace this philosophy, instead of the reverse. Yes, it's important to respect your opponent. No, this doesn't mean you have to put men behind the ball. It should mean you take every opportunity to put the foot on the throat and drive your opponent into the dirt. Because if you don't get them, they might get you, and we saw exactly that on Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, a spare man in defence has its place. But (a) after kicking 5 goals in 5 minutes is not the time, (b) "the end of a quarter" is definitely not a good default setting and (c) we are not good at executing that tactic, as has been discussed to death here over summer. We do need to become better at it, but it's probably something best learned in-game. We'd probably need to do it for a month, like a full 120 minutes each week for 4 weeks, and while we're in the business of winning flags, we probably (hopefully) won't get such a 4-week window.



Phase #3 - Q2 0:00 to Q2 12:44 (Brisbane 2-0 12 v Carlton 0-1 1)

Largely, we picked up where we left off in Phase #1, which was pleasing. On a scale of what we saw in the 1st quarter, this was about an 8 or 9 out of 10. Up by 43 points, Eric Hipwood took a cracking contested mark, and that's when the trouble started...



Phase #4 - Q2 12:44 to Q3 15:24 (Brisbane 0-5 5 v Carlton 8-4 52)

Hipwood missed, then Cameron missed twice, and I'm a bit trigger happy with these sorts of things but I could see the cracks opening up already. I could see us getting lazy, taking bad options, and literally toying with Carlton. But because Carlton were so so shot to bits by that point, even these bad options came off for a little while, hence we kept the ball in our front half and got shots at goal. It really was a Leigh Matthews' "tip of the iceberg" moment.

But eventually, we mucked around just long enough for Carlton to regain their balance in general play, and eventually the tide turned. This chart from WheeloRatings is a cracker. Have a look how much we dominated forward territory there in the middle of the quarter, even though we didn't kick a goal after 8 minutes:

View attachment 1927004

Then from time on, Carlton arguably controlled territory up to half time. The writing should have been on the wall by then - look at the 4 yellow bars to end the half.

The bizarre thing is that even to start the 3rd quarter, we had more of the ball in our front half than Carlton did. But Carlton took their chances, because we were lazy when they got it, as has been discussed by everyone, and this is the 2nd of the 3 things that cost us the match.

Then at some stage, our guys became desperate, all started going for the same ball (in the air and on the ground), running into each other, all trying to be the hero. So we completely overbalanced the other way.

But this graphic by itself should be enough to confirm to us as supporters that, strategically, our game plan will hold up against pretty much everyone this year, provided the players are able to put forth the effort to put it into practice.

Phase #5 - Q3 15:24 to FT (Brisbane 3-6 24 v Carlton 3-3 21)

Pleasingly, we were able to steady the ship mid-quarter. We didn't need 3 quarter time to come to sort ourselves out, which we might have needed in previous seasons. However, by then our confidence was pretty well shot and we had given Carlton a massive boost in that regard.

Besides the closeness of the scoreboard however this phase of the game was so underwhelming. Any semblance of game plan we had completely vanished, and the game was played completely on Carlton's terms. It looked like a Carlton game. Tough, tight, contested, straight lines, not much lateral ball use. The fact that despite this we largely controlled territory and the scoreboard (12 shots to 9) in this period, confirms my belief that Carlton are actually a bloody ordinary team strategically, and whatever they achieve this year will come on the back of hard work and a never-say-die attitude. Our kicking for goal let us down in this phase of the game, which is the 3rd thing that cost us victory.

Dalions referenced this period of the game in his very excellent Round 1 preview. Whilst I agree with most of it, I do think the fact that our game plan almost completely disintegrated into a one-on-one slog fest had a lot to do with our fitness issues, which I note Michael Whiting on the Roar Deal has FINALLY had the temerity to go on-air with (WE'VE HIT THE MAINSTREAM briztoon). Yes, we may have had a pressure rating of 201. But a quick review of Champion Data's pressure definitions is revealing:

View attachment 1927026

This demonstrates that a missed tackle (simply making contact with an opponent) is worth maximum points. So I remain very sceptical of pressure rating as a relevant measure of effort. This primarily indicates to me that we paid a reasonable degree of attention to our direct opponent. However there was absolutely little spread, or initiative to create space by using the width of the ground. And how many times did we kick out on the full under minimal pressure? Those were all tired, exhausted kicks. We didn't see any of those from Carlton players.

Joey Montagna also went to town tonight on our inability to slow the game in the final 6-7 minutes of the final quarter. It's worth a watch, but I'm not so dark on them for this. Yes, some players on the field were calling for us to slow the game down, and the ball-carrier was ignoring them. This says to me we weren't all on the same page and we definitely panicked. But as above, there was still 6-7 minutes to go. We only held a 5 point lead. To my thinking, it was still appropriate at that stage to seek another goal. We also didn't play with a spare man at any stage during that period, which, considering we did in the first quarter, I find extremely strange. In fact, Carlton had a spare man in their forward line when Harry McKay took that mark. How on earth does that happen!?

If only we had played that way for the whole 1st quarter.

Always love your work Grasshopper17. You pretty much confirm what I've been thinking and saying, but you're able to demonstrate it with evidence.

I haven't finished listening to this weeks "The Roar Deal" yet, so haven't heard Whiting discuss the teams fitness yet. I'd rather not hit the mainstream with that podcast.

 

[Grasshopper17]

‘What have they learnt’: Stars on notice as damning vision shows Lions blew it late... just like in GF

‘What have they learnt’: Stars on notice as damning vision shows Lions blew it late... just like in GF

www.foxsports.com.au

Pretty good summary

Also can see in the last piece of footage Lester failing to drop into the hole in front of McKay and Curnow. Needed to call our spare man over to guard Cottrell and drop in front of the obvious targets.

Carltons spare man was about 100m from the footy

Tell us you haven't watched the footage without telling us you haven't watched the footage

 

[SizeMatters]

Tell us you haven't watched the footage without telling us you haven't watched the footage

fantastic work Grasshopper17. Your eye for detail is unmatched on this board. I've really appreciate and value your analysis immensely. The postings you have on game plans, game days and general Brisbane Lions discussion is top notch! Wish I had the capability to provide even 10 per cent of your input to this board.

You quickly get a sense of which posters like to pick one titbit of a post and provide low effort trollbait responses for God knows what reason! I for one am glad you are with us on this board.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Tell us you haven't watched the footage without telling us you haven't watched the footage

Must be referring to different footage.

I'm talking about the McKay mark. They pretty clearly highlighted the ball getting switched into the centre corridor. Cripps free in the pocket close to maybe 80m away with the ball in line with the centre circle

Maybe it's Neale free at centre half back about 30m away. Their half forwards drag our defenders up outside 50 leaving that space for Curnow and McKay to run into. Our spare player leave at left half back by himself instead of receiving the hand off from one of the defenders getting sucked up the ground

 

[M Malice]

This was a complicated game to analyse. So as I am a simpleton I have broken the game up into what I saw as its 5 phases. Also the stat graphics available on Twitter have improved again, so it's not all bad.



Phase #1 - Q1 0:00 to Q1 24:00 (Brisbane 7-1 43 v Carlton 1-0 6)

Watching this unfold I thought "this is some of the best footy I've ever seen". "Frightening" was the word that came to mind, because that was the word people used to describe our dynasty team back in the day. This was every bit as good as that.

The next morning I thought I was overexaggerating until I heard people in the media say exactly the same thing. It was brutal, relentless and skilful, but the feature I noted the most was our decision making. It has improved out of sight to the point that our players barely made a wrong call ball in hand, or defending, during this entire period. Whatever we want to say about our coaches, this period of the game was proof enough that our coaching group has a fair idea what they are doing.

By the time this period ended, we'd kicked 5 goals in 5 minutes of playing time, Carlton was absolutely on the rack, ripe to be killed off there and then, yet...



Phase #2 - Q1 24:00 to QT (Brisbane 0-1 1 v Carlton 1-0 6)

At this point we put a man behind the ball! I wasn't even watching for it, but I suddenly realised we weren't able to lock the ball in our forward line quite as easily, and a quick count of players at the first mid-zone boundary throw-in revealed why. How do I know it was our decision to play a spare and not Carlton's? It's because we only had 5 forwards. Had Carlton initiated it we'd have had 6 forwards to their 7 defenders. To me, in the moment this beggared belief. I've doctored the score worm for the game:

View attachment 1926950

This rudimentary defacing of a chart is something that is used (seriously) in finance by traders called a "channel". While an investment's price remains inside that channel, it is considered to be following a trend. Once it breaks out of that channel, the trend is considered broken. Traders often use this as their signals to buy or sell. It's not always that simple - if it was, everyone would be doing it. But it's a legitimate and very commonly used guide.

In a footy sense, this "channel" was our momentum. We were absolutely destroying Carlton, but then we essentially neutered ourselves by ceasing to do what was working for us, and switching to a more defensive game style. You can see from that channel, had our momentum persisted for the rest of the quarter, our lead would have been in the vicinity of 50-60 points (those horizontal lines are 30 points each). Yes, Carlton still may have come back from there, but as we saw on Saturday down at Carrara, there are only so many goals you can kick in a hurry before your comeback starts to run out of steam, and (equally importantly) the other team is able to gather itself and respond.

We saw our lead of 46 points become a 3 point deficit. That's a 49 point turnaround. On Saturday, Gold Coast saw its 67 point lead become a 24 point lead. That's a 43 point turnaround. It is absolutely in the same ball park - the key difference is that the Suns kept the foot on the pedal long enough to create an impossible margin to overcome.

An example much closer to home came in Round 21 of 2022, also against Carlton. Our 57 point lead at 3 quarter time became just 15, with just enough time for the Blues to pinch the win. But at 15 points down, Carlton still had to attack. This meant taking risks, giving us opportunities to score the other way. Eventually we did, kicking the last 3 goals to win by 33 points. But imagine if our lead had only been 45 points that day at 3 quarter time, instead of 57.

So I really believe that even though the 2nd and 3rd quarters have been highlighted by all and sundry, our problems started in the 1st quarter, and I would go as far as to say that going defensive in the first quarter was one of the 3 things that cost us the win. Even the goal they kicked during this time - it came from our skill error caused by having too many blokes in the same space. Oscar dropped a mark when he should have left it for a team mate, got pinged for holding the ball and they converted.

To me it speaks to Fages' inherent conservatism. We have heard him say on multiple occasions how he feels like he coaches better when he thinks we're going to lose. I can absolutely relate, and this goes way back to my (very bad) playing days. I would never feel confident of victory until time on of the last quarter almost. But it seems the way he (or he and the coaching group) and I manifest these emotions are very different.

The impression I seem to get from Fages runs something along the lines of, "OK we've had a good period, we've probably got a bit lucky, the other mob are probably due to get on top now, let's park the bus a bit". What sort of message does this send to our players? "Our coach doesn't think we're actually that good and what we've been doing for the last 10 minutes has been lucky bullsh!t"?

I just don't rate this philosophy. Have more faith!

I once read/heard (can't remember which) a fascinating interview with Adam Gilchrist. Those of us lucky enough to remember his entire career probably remember him as a freewheeling, devil-may-care player who was often at his best in a crisis, changed the cricket world and set new standards for wicketkeeper-batsmen. But this clashed almost completely with how he came across as a person. When he was interviewed, he mentioned how he was absolutely terrified of getting out. So his batting philosophy became "strewth, these guys are pretty good, I'd better get em quickly because it's only a matter of time before they get me". So even though it seems counterintuitive, the fact he respected his opponents so much actually became the catalyst for him to bat the way he did.

I'd like to see us embrace this philosophy, instead of the reverse. Yes, it's important to respect your opponent. No, this doesn't mean you have to put men behind the ball. It should mean you take every opportunity to put the foot on the throat and drive your opponent into the dirt. Because if you don't get them, they might get you, and we saw exactly that on Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, a spare man in defence has its place. But (a) after kicking 5 goals in 5 minutes is not the time, (b) "the end of a quarter" is definitely not a good default setting and (c) we are not good at executing that tactic, as has been discussed to death here over summer. We do need to become better at it, but it's probably something best learned in-game. We'd probably need to do it for a month, like a full 120 minutes each week for 4 weeks, and while we're in the business of winning flags, we probably (hopefully) won't get such a 4-week window.



Phase #3 - Q2 0:00 to Q2 12:44 (Brisbane 2-0 12 v Carlton 0-1 1)

Largely, we picked up where we left off in Phase #1, which was pleasing. On a scale of what we saw in the 1st quarter, this was about an 8 or 9 out of 10. Up by 43 points, Eric Hipwood took a cracking contested mark, and that's when the trouble started...



Phase #4 - Q2 12:44 to Q3 15:24 (Brisbane 0-5 5 v Carlton 8-4 52)

Hipwood missed, then Cameron missed twice, and I'm a bit trigger happy with these sorts of things but I could see the cracks opening up already. I could see us getting lazy, taking bad options, and literally toying with Carlton. But because Carlton were so so shot to bits by that point, even these bad options came off for a little while, hence we kept the ball in our front half and got shots at goal. It really was a Leigh Matthews' "tip of the iceberg" moment.

But eventually, we mucked around just long enough for Carlton to regain their balance in general play, and eventually the tide turned. This chart from WheeloRatings is a cracker. Have a look how much we dominated forward territory there in the middle of the quarter, even though we didn't kick a goal after 8 minutes:

View attachment 1927004

Then from time on, Carlton arguably controlled territory up to half time. The writing should have been on the wall by then - look at the 4 yellow bars to end the half.

The bizarre thing is that even to start the 3rd quarter, we had more of the ball in our front half than Carlton did. But Carlton took their chances, because we were lazy when they got it, as has been discussed by everyone, and this is the 2nd of the 3 things that cost us the match.

Then at some stage, our guys became desperate, all started going for the same ball (in the air and on the ground), running into each other, all trying to be the hero. So we completely overbalanced the other way.

But this graphic by itself should be enough to confirm to us as supporters that, strategically, our game plan will hold up against pretty much everyone this year, provided the players are able to put forth the effort to put it into practice.



Phase #5 - Q3 15:24 to FT (Brisbane 3-6 24 v Carlton 3-3 21)

Pleasingly, we were able to steady the ship mid-quarter. We didn't need 3 quarter time to come to sort ourselves out, which we might have needed in previous seasons. However, by then our confidence was pretty well shot and we had given Carlton a massive boost in that regard.

Besides the closeness of the scoreboard however this phase of the game was so underwhelming. Any semblance of game plan we had completely vanished, and the game was played completely on Carlton's terms. It looked like a Carlton game. Tough, tight, contested, straight lines, not much lateral ball use. The fact that despite this we largely controlled territory and the scoreboard (12 shots to 9) in this period, confirms my belief that Carlton are actually a bloody ordinary team strategically, and whatever they achieve this year will come on the back of hard work and a never-say-die attitude. Our kicking for goal let us down in this phase of the game, which is the 3rd thing that cost us victory.

Dalions referenced this period of the game in his very excellent Round 1 preview. Whilst I agree with most of it, I do think the fact that our game plan almost completely disintegrated into a one-on-one slog fest had a lot to do with our fitness issues, which I note Michael Whiting on the Roar Deal has FINALLY had the temerity to go on-air with (WE'VE HIT THE MAINSTREAM briztoon). Yes, we may have had a pressure rating of 201. But a quick review of Champion Data's pressure definitions is revealing:

View attachment 1927026

This demonstrates that a missed tackle (simply making contact with an opponent) is worth maximum points. So I remain very sceptical of pressure rating as a relevant measure of effort. This primarily indicates to me that we paid a reasonable degree of attention to our direct opponent. However there was absolutely little spread, or initiative to create space by using the width of the ground. And how many times did we kick out on the full under minimal pressure? Those were all tired, exhausted kicks. We didn't see any of those from Carlton players.

Joey Montagna also went to town tonight on our inability to slow the game in the final 6-7 minutes of the final quarter. It's worth a watch, but I'm not so dark on them for this. Yes, some players on the field were calling for us to slow the game down, and the ball-carrier was ignoring them. This says to me we weren't all on the same page and we definitely panicked. But as above, there was still 6-7 minutes to go. We only held a 5 point lead. To my thinking, it was still appropriate at that stage to seek another goal. We also didn't play with a spare man at any stage during that period, which, considering we did in the first quarter, I find extremely strange. In fact, Carlton had a spare man in their forward line when Harry McKay took that mark. How on earth does that happen!?

If only we had played that way for the whole 1st quarter.

Fantastic analysis as per usual Mr Grasshopper, I once did think we were lacking fitness compared to the elite sides but there have been a few examples that turned me around on that, namely the 2022 Semi-Final victory v the Demons at the MCG.

However I still have a nagging doubt that we are up with the likes of the Giants and Magpies re that aspect of the game, could it be that our high performance staff are too worried about over training and it causing injury concerns down the line? Do we do really gut busting endurance sessions during the off season?

The players do look in very good physical shape though so who knows.

IMO you should also send this kind of analysis to the Lions... worst they can do to you is ignore it/you.

 

[briztoon]

This was a complicated game to analyse. So as I am a simpleton I have broken the game up into what I saw as its 5 phases. Also the stat graphics available on Twitter have improved again, so it's not all bad.



Phase #1 - Q1 0:00 to Q1 24:00 (Brisbane 7-1 43 v Carlton 1-0 6)

Watching this unfold I thought "this is some of the best footy I've ever seen". "Frightening" was the word that came to mind, because that was the word people used to describe our dynasty team back in the day. This was every bit as good as that.

The next morning I thought I was overexaggerating until I heard people in the media say exactly the same thing. It was brutal, relentless and skilful, but the feature I noted the most was our decision making. It has improved out of sight to the point that our players barely made a wrong call ball in hand, or defending, during this entire period. Whatever we want to say about our coaches, this period of the game was proof enough that our coaching group has a fair idea what they are doing.

By the time this period ended, we'd kicked 5 goals in 5 minutes of playing time, Carlton was absolutely on the rack, ripe to be killed off there and then, yet...



Phase #2 - Q1 24:00 to QT (Brisbane 0-1 1 v Carlton 1-0 6)

At this point we put a man behind the ball! I wasn't even watching for it, but I suddenly realised we weren't able to lock the ball in our forward line quite as easily, and a quick count of players at the first mid-zone boundary throw-in revealed why. How do I know it was our decision to play a spare and not Carlton's? It's because we only had 5 forwards. Had Carlton initiated it we'd have had 6 forwards to their 7 defenders. To me, in the moment this beggared belief. I've doctored the score worm for the game:

View attachment 1926950

This rudimentary defacing of a chart is something that is used (seriously) in finance by traders called a "channel". While an investment's price remains inside that channel, it is considered to be following a trend. Once it breaks out of that channel, the trend is considered broken. Traders often use this as their signals to buy or sell. It's not always that simple - if it was, everyone would be doing it. But it's a legitimate and very commonly used guide.

In a footy sense, this "channel" was our momentum. We were absolutely destroying Carlton, but then we essentially neutered ourselves by ceasing to do what was working for us, and switching to a more defensive game style. You can see from that channel, had our momentum persisted for the rest of the quarter, our lead would have been in the vicinity of 50-60 points (those horizontal lines are 30 points each). Yes, Carlton still may have come back from there, but as we saw on Saturday down at Carrara, there are only so many goals you can kick in a hurry before your comeback starts to run out of steam, and (equally importantly) the other team is able to gather itself and respond.

We saw our lead of 46 points become a 3 point deficit. That's a 49 point turnaround. On Saturday, Gold Coast saw its 67 point lead become a 24 point lead. That's a 43 point turnaround. It is absolutely in the same ball park - the key difference is that the Suns kept the foot on the pedal long enough to create an impossible margin to overcome.

An example much closer to home came in Round 21 of 2022, also against Carlton. Our 57 point lead at 3 quarter time became just 15, with just enough time for the Blues to pinch the win. But at 15 points down, Carlton still had to attack. This meant taking risks, giving us opportunities to score the other way. Eventually we did, kicking the last 3 goals to win by 33 points. But imagine if our lead had only been 45 points that day at 3 quarter time, instead of 57.

So I really believe that even though the 2nd and 3rd quarters have been highlighted by all and sundry, our problems started in the 1st quarter, and I would go as far as to say that going defensive in the first quarter was one of the 3 things that cost us the win. Even the goal they kicked during this time - it came from our skill error caused by having too many blokes in the same space. Oscar dropped a mark when he should have left it for a team mate, got pinged for holding the ball and they converted.

To me it speaks to Fages' inherent conservatism. We have heard him say on multiple occasions how he feels like he coaches better when he thinks we're going to lose. I can absolutely relate, and this goes way back to my (very bad) playing days. I would never feel confident of victory until time on of the last quarter almost. But it seems the way he (or he and the coaching group) and I manifest these emotions are very different.

The impression I seem to get from Fages runs something along the lines of, "OK we've had a good period, we've probably got a bit lucky, the other mob are probably due to get on top now, let's park the bus a bit". What sort of message does this send to our players? "Our coach doesn't think we're actually that good and what we've been doing for the last 10 minutes has been lucky bullsh!t"?

I just don't rate this philosophy. Have more faith!

I once read/heard (can't remember which) a fascinating interview with Adam Gilchrist. Those of us lucky enough to remember his entire career probably remember him as a freewheeling, devil-may-care player who was often at his best in a crisis, changed the cricket world and set new standards for wicketkeeper-batsmen. But this clashed almost completely with how he came across as a person. When he was interviewed, he mentioned how he was absolutely terrified of getting out. So his batting philosophy became "strewth, these guys are pretty good, I'd better get em quickly because it's only a matter of time before they get me". So even though it seems counterintuitive, the fact he respected his opponents so much actually became the catalyst for him to bat the way he did.

I'd like to see us embrace this philosophy, instead of the reverse. Yes, it's important to respect your opponent. No, this doesn't mean you have to put men behind the ball. It should mean you take every opportunity to put the foot on the throat and drive your opponent into the dirt. Because if you don't get them, they might get you, and we saw exactly that on Friday night.

Don't get me wrong, a spare man in defence has its place. But (a) after kicking 5 goals in 5 minutes is not the time, (b) "the end of a quarter" is definitely not a good default setting and (c) we are not good at executing that tactic, as has been discussed to death here over summer. We do need to become better at it, but it's probably something best learned in-game. We'd probably need to do it for a month, like a full 120 minutes each week for 4 weeks, and while we're in the business of winning flags, we probably (hopefully) won't get such a 4-week window.



Phase #3 - Q2 0:00 to Q2 12:44 (Brisbane 2-0 12 v Carlton 0-1 1)

Largely, we picked up where we left off in Phase #1, which was pleasing. On a scale of what we saw in the 1st quarter, this was about an 8 or 9 out of 10. Up by 43 points, Eric Hipwood took a cracking contested mark, and that's when the trouble started...



Phase #4 - Q2 12:44 to Q3 15:24 (Brisbane 0-5 5 v Carlton 8-4 52)

Hipwood missed, then Cameron missed twice, and I'm a bit trigger happy with these sorts of things but I could see the cracks opening up already. I could see us getting lazy, taking bad options, and literally toying with Carlton. But because Carlton were so so shot to bits by that point, even these bad options came off for a little while, hence we kept the ball in our front half and got shots at goal. It really was a Leigh Matthews' "tip of the iceberg" moment.

But eventually, we mucked around just long enough for Carlton to regain their balance in general play, and eventually the tide turned. This chart from WheeloRatings is a cracker. Have a look how much we dominated forward territory there in the middle of the quarter, even though we didn't kick a goal after 8 minutes:

View attachment 1927004

Then from time on, Carlton arguably controlled territory up to half time. The writing should have been on the wall by then - look at the 4 yellow bars to end the half.

The bizarre thing is that even to start the 3rd quarter, we had more of the ball in our front half than Carlton did. But Carlton took their chances, because we were lazy when they got it, as has been discussed by everyone, and this is the 2nd of the 3 things that cost us the match.

Then at some stage, our guys became desperate, all started going for the same ball (in the air and on the ground), running into each other, all trying to be the hero. So we completely overbalanced the other way.

But this graphic by itself should be enough to confirm to us as supporters that, strategically, our game plan will hold up against pretty much everyone this year, provided the players are able to put forth the effort to put it into practice.



Phase #5 - Q3 15:24 to FT (Brisbane 3-6 24 v Carlton 3-3 21)

Pleasingly, we were able to steady the ship mid-quarter. We didn't need 3 quarter time to come to sort ourselves out, which we might have needed in previous seasons. However, by then our confidence was pretty well shot and we had given Carlton a massive boost in that regard.

Besides the closeness of the scoreboard however this phase of the game was so underwhelming. Any semblance of game plan we had completely vanished, and the game was played completely on Carlton's terms. It looked like a Carlton game. Tough, tight, contested, straight lines, not much lateral ball use. The fact that despite this we largely controlled territory and the scoreboard (12 shots to 9) in this period, confirms my belief that Carlton are actually a bloody ordinary team strategically, and whatever they achieve this year will come on the back of hard work and a never-say-die attitude. Our kicking for goal let us down in this phase of the game, which is the 3rd thing that cost us victory.

Dalions referenced this period of the game in his very excellent Round 1 preview. Whilst I agree with most of it, I do think the fact that our game plan almost completely disintegrated into a one-on-one slog fest had a lot to do with our fitness issues, which I note Michael Whiting on the Roar Deal has FINALLY had the temerity to go on-air with (WE'VE HIT THE MAINSTREAM briztoon). Yes, we may have had a pressure rating of 201. But a quick review of Champion Data's pressure definitions is revealing:

View attachment 1927026

This demonstrates that a missed tackle (simply making contact with an opponent) is worth maximum points. So I remain very sceptical of pressure rating as a relevant measure of effort. This primarily indicates to me that we paid a reasonable degree of attention to our direct opponent. However there was absolutely little spread, or initiative to create space by using the width of the ground. And how many times did we kick out on the full under minimal pressure? Those were all tired, exhausted kicks. We didn't see any of those from Carlton players.

Joey Montagna also went to town tonight on our inability to slow the game in the final 6-7 minutes of the final quarter. It's worth a watch, but I'm not so dark on them for this. Yes, some players on the field were calling for us to slow the game down, and the ball-carrier was ignoring them. This says to me we weren't all on the same page and we definitely panicked. But as above, there was still 6-7 minutes to go. We only held a 5 point lead. To my thinking, it was still appropriate at that stage to seek another goal. We also didn't play with a spare man at any stage during that period, which, considering we did in the first quarter, I find extremely strange. In fact, Carlton had a spare man in their forward line when Harry McKay took that mark. How on earth does that happen!?

If only we had played that way for the whole 1st quarter.

Fish goes whack.

 

[twhowler]

20 pages eh, you can tell a lot went wrong!

Very interesting analysis Grasshopper. I don't have the mental strength to re-watch. I too thought we were awesome early. And that it was so stark once we started stuffing around. The goal-kicking was a concentration thing too. What was with Cameron? he didn't look confident at all.

I am not sure on some of Montagna's analysis, but it was pretty telling how empty our forward 50 was for the winning goal. It just shouldn't have been that easy. also the switch to make it happen. how could they have had a player totally free 70m out AND an extra number in forward 50? That is what is damning to me. If we back ourselves to win it OR want to clog their 50, fine. it seems we managed to do neither.

on the go slow bit - i think montagna is wrong to say it should always be go slow. we always had to kick another goal. it was the way we A seemed to go fast to 50/50 contests at best. and B when we finally got it forward of 50 a couple of times and could have sprinted and kicked it deep, THAT was the time we decided to go slow. It seemed upside down to me.

My final depressing thought - we really need to win just about every gabba game from here. Thankfully no Giants there. Pies and Dees to come.

Away games this year that will be very tough: adelaide, port, collingwood, melbourne, GWS,

Away games that will be no pushover: freo, dogs, suns, saints

it's a very tough draw.

 

[Dalions]

20 pages eh, you can tell a lot went wrong!

Very interesting analysis Grasshopper. I don't have the mental strength to re-watch. I too thought we were awesome early. And that it was so stark once we started stuffing around. The goal-kicking was a concentration thing too. What was with Cameron? he didn't look confident at all.

I am not sure on some of Montagna's analysis, but it was pretty telling how empty our forward 50 was for the winning goal. It just shouldn't have been that easy. also the switch to make it happen. how could they have had a player totally free 70m out AND an extra number in forward 50? That is what is damning to me. If we back ourselves to win it OR want to clog their 50, fine. it seems we managed to do neither.

on the go slow bit - i think montagna is wrong to say it should always be go slow. we always had to kick another goal. it was the way we A seemed to go fast to 50/50 contests at best. and B when we finally got it forward of 50 a couple of times and could have sprinted and kicked it deep, THAT was the time we decided to go slow. It seemed upside down to me.

My final depressing thought - we really need to win just about every gabba game from here. Thankfully no Giants there. Pies and Dees to come.

Away games this year that will be very tough: adelaide, port, collingwood, melbourne, GWS,

Away games that will be no pushover: freo, dogs, suns, saints

it's a very tough draw.

Knowing our propensity to lose games we shouldn’t, I wouldn’t call anyone a pushover.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Fantastic analysis as per usual Mr Grasshopper, I once did think we were lacking fitness compared to the elite sides but there have been a few examples that turned me around on that, namely the 2022 Semi-Final victory v the Demons at the MCG.

It's an interesting discussion. I think (and even more so with the benefit of hindsight) that particular game had more to do with Melbourne. Consider their scoring profile in season 2022:

Q1: 24.63 for, 13.42 against, 183.5%
Q2: 21.88 for, 17.29 against, 126.5%
Q3: 22.58 for, 18.67 against, 121.0%
Q4: 17.75 for, 19.75 against, 89.9%

This is THE most graphic quarter-by-quarter drop off by any team I've seen since I've been keeping these records. Sydney lost a lot of games last year with a 3 quarter time lead but their profile was not nearly as bad as this. If you recall in 2022, teams were almost queueing up to play Melbourne late in the year, knowing if they could stay with them for a half they could run over them at the end, as we did.

Melbourne also showed this need not be permanent; they responded with a gruelling preseason last year to become the best Q4 team in 2023, with a % of 154.8.

Unfortunately it seems our club has not seen fit to address what some of us perceive as similar issues.

 

[Grasshopper17]

20 pages eh, you can tell a lot went wrong!

Very interesting analysis Grasshopper. I don't have the mental strength to re-watch. I too thought we were awesome early. And that it was so stark once we started stuffing around. The goal-kicking was a concentration thing too. What was with Cameron? he didn't look confident at all.

I am not sure on some of Montagna's analysis, but it was pretty telling how empty our forward 50 was for the winning goal. It just shouldn't have been that easy. also the switch to make it happen. how could they have had a player totally free 70m out AND an extra number in forward 50? That is what is damning to me. If we back ourselves to win it OR want to clog their 50, fine. it seems we managed to do neither.

on the go slow bit - i think montagna is wrong to say it should always be go slow. we always had to kick another goal. it was the way we A seemed to go fast to 50/50 contests at best. and B when we finally got it forward of 50 a couple of times and could have sprinted and kicked it deep, THAT was the time we decided to go slow. It seemed upside down to me.

My final depressing thought - we really need to win just about every gabba game from here. Thankfully no Giants there. Pies and Dees to come.

Away games this year that will be very tough: adelaide, port, collingwood, melbourne, GWS,

Away games that will be no pushover: freo, dogs, suns, saints

it's a very tough draw.

Don't worry there's no way I'm rewatching that game either! My analysis is mainly from memory of the game, with a bit of analysis from the talking heads on TV thrown in.