Draft picks 2003 -> 2006

[Daytripper]

Here is my analysis of our drafting over the past 4 seasons

*draft pick value (DPV) = is player now worth position picked at ?
*player value (PV) = value to overall squad.

All marks out of ten.

2003 Draft
#6 Kepler Bradley
DPV = 1
PV = 5
Still have faith that Kepler will provide some sort of role with us in the future

#13 Brent Stanton
DPV = 8
PV = 9

#28 Jay Nash
DPV = 8
PV = 5

#44 Ricky Dyson
DPV = 6
PV = 2

Average DPV = 5.75, Average PV = 5.25.
A fairly good draft for us in what was a weak draft overall.

2004 Draft
#14 Angus Monfries
DPV = 2
PV = 3

#30 Andrew Lee
DPV = 2
PV = 3
May be a future KP backman but I'm not holding out much hope

#46 Henry Slattery
DPV = 10
PV = 7

#60 Paul Thomas
DPV = 0
PV = 0

Average DPV = 3.5, Average PV = 3.25
An absolute disaster of a draft with the exception of Slattery in what may prove to be the best draft ever.

2005 Draft
#7 Patrick Ryder
DPV = 8
PV = 9

#19 Courtney Dempsey
DPV = 6
PV = 7

#39 Jay Neagle
DPV = 3
PV = 2
I just don't know what role he plays with us in the future.

#50 Sam Lonergan
DPV = 4
PV = 0
Likely to be delisted at end of season.

#66 Austin Lucy
DPV = 0
PV = 0

Average DPV = 4.2, Average PV = 3.6
Again not good witht the exception of the top two picks

2006 Draft (this is all subjective and my opinion)
#2 Scott Gumbleton
DPV = 2
PV = 8

#18 Leroy Jetta
DPV = 7
PV = 8

#20 Tom Hislop
DPV = 7
PV = 7

#36 Alwyn Davey
DPV = 10
PV = 10

#42 Bachar Houli
DPV = 5
PV = 2

#47 Kyle Reimers
DPV = 7
PV = 4

Average DPV = 6.33, Average PV = 6.0
A good draft but I still question the choice of Gumbleton at 2.

 

[Jono B]

You are seriously underestimating Neagle and Gumbleton.

 

[Boris_Bewick]

I think you're a bit tough on Monfries, especially with PV. And trust me, no one is more excited about Dempsey than me, but you've got him as a 7 and Monfries as a 3. Monfries isn't playing great footy, but he's been more value than Dempsey

 

[SOT4]

Role of Neagle? Key Forward for many years after Lloyd and Lucas are gone. Surely the failure of CJ this year has shown you what a good choice Gumby was.

 

[Daytripper]

I think you're a bit tough on Monfries, especially with PV. And trust me, no one is more excited about Dempsey than me, but you've got him as a 7 and Monfries as a 3. Monfries isn't playing great footy, but he's been more value than Dempsey

Dempsey has got speed which Monfries doesn't hence his PV is higher. We need more pace in our side with the way footy is heading hence the reason I have given most players with a bit of leg speed a higher rating than what you might first think.

 

[Don Envy]

Go back to the 2000 - 2003 drafts - you're more likely to find out the cause of our current problems there, especially in light of who went after some of our choices.

It hightlights that not only must Sheeds must go, but also Dodoro (and anyone else involved in recruiting)

 

[Daytripper]

Go back to the 2000 - 2003 drafts - you're more likely to find out the cause of our current problems there, especially in light of who went after some of our choices.

It hightlights that not only must Sheeds must go, but also Dodoro (and anyone else involved in recruiting)

I think the 2000 -> 2003 drafts have been discussed often enough on this board.
We all know they were rubbish.

 

[Bdiddy18]

Go back to the 2000 - 2003 drafts - you're more likely to find out the cause of our current problems there, especially in light of who went after some of our choices.

It hightlights that not only must Sheeds must go, but also Dodoro (and anyone else involved in recruiting)

Some may say that tristan Cartledge was one of those picks. I would disagree, I know he was given 4 years on the list to development but I think we let him go 1 year too early. I think his last game round 22 last year showed he had a lot of ability. From all reports he has been killing it in the VFL this year which saw him get rewarded with representing Victoria which again he dominated the game. What are peoples thoughts? Will he get picked up again? Would he be worth it?

 

[windyhill]

Don`t forget the draft we missed for umm,ahh ,hmmm, cheating. The one we got Hilley in. That is absolutely killing us.

 

[ant555]

Here is my analysis of our drafting over the past 4 seasons

*draft pick value (DPV) = is player now worth position picked at ?
*player value (PV) = value to overall squad.

All marks out of ten.

2003 Draft
#6 Kepler Bradley
DPV = 1
PV = 5
Still have faith that Kepler will provide some sort of role with us in the future

#13 Brent Stanton
DPV = 8
PV = 9

#28 Jay Nash
DPV = 8
PV = 5

#44 Ricky Dyson
DPV = 6
PV = 2

Average DPV = 5.75, Average PV = 5.25.
A fairly good draft for us in what was a weak draft overall.

2004 Draft
#14 Angus Monfries
DPV = 2
PV = 3

#30 Andrew Lee
DPV = 2
PV = 3
May be a future KP backman but I'm not holding out much hope

#46 Henry Slattery
DPV = 10
PV = 7

#60 Paul Thomas
DPV = 0
PV = 0

Average DPV = 3.5, Average PV = 3.25
An absolute disaster of a draft with the exception of Slattery in what may prove to be the best draft ever.

2005 Draft
#7 Patrick Ryder
DPV = 8
PV = 9

#19 Courtney Dempsey
DPV = 6
PV = 7

#39 Jay Neagle
DPV = 3
PV = 2
I just don't know what role he plays with us in the future.

#50 Sam Lonergan
DPV = 4
PV = 0
Likely to be delisted at end of season.

#66 Austin Lucy
DPV = 0
PV = 0

Average DPV = 4.2, Average PV = 3.6
Again not good witht the exception of the top two picks

2006 Draft (this is all subjective and my opinion)
#2 Scott Gumbleton
DPV = 2
PV = 6

#18 Leroy Jetta
DPV = 7
PV = 8

#20 Tom Hislop
DPV = 7
PV = 7

#36 Alwyn Davey
DPV = 10
PV = 10

#42 Bachar Houli
DPV = 5
PV = 2

#47 Kyle Reimers
DPV = 7
PV = 4

Average DPV = 6.33, Average PV = 6.0
A good draft but I still question the choice of Gumbleton at 2.

Sorry but to just come up with evaluations without seeing all the games that the players involved have played is rather ordinary.

 

[Daytripper]

Sorry but to just come up with evaluations without seeing all the games that the players involved have played is rather ordinary.

Are you talking about my ratings for last years draft ?

As per my disclaimer - this was subjective and only my opinion.

 

[Smokin]

Impossible to rate a draft without providing the opportunity cost of that pick, within reason. Most drafts, the basic structure is fairly well known, especially the top 20 odd, with the exact order changing more as you go down the list.

For example, Bradley. I have been on his back, and I dont rate him nor do I see the future in him, but I wont necessarily bag that pick too much, as on the surface it looks a dead seat McAlister-esque shocker, but look at the next picks:

2003 7 Kane Tenace Geelong
2003 8 Raphael Clarke St Kilda
2003 9 David Trotter Kangaroos
2003 10 Ryley Dunn Fremantle

It's not like we let Kerr go at 7 for Bradley at 6.

Cant look too far down the draft either, as every year ones will pop out of nowhere, but you cant predict that at the time. You have to go with the percentages at the time, based on junior footy form/ability.

the Gumby pick may prove interesting, but while it is extremely early, the next pick has been anything but impressive, and the big loss for that pick thus far in our team makeup is obviously Selwood, nobody could have predicted he'd be this good this early. Time will tell only -impossible to tell now, especially as Gumby is KP.

 

[ant555]

Are you talking about my ratings for last years draft ?

As per my disclaimer - this was subjective and only my opinion.

Which makes it ordinary , sorry but thats just the way i see it. It is the reason why i dont make sweeping commnets on other clubs lists . Although i do get to see other clubs play and generally i see how there kids go in the VFL 2 or 3 times a year you can make a proper call on it becasue it may well be that you see 2 or 3 of their worst games.
You keep going on about Gumbleton but i can tell you 100% you have managed to catch 3 of his worst VFL games. You seem to be expecting him to do something he is not ready to do yet. The fact he has come of a limited pre season and a serious hammy injury has only hindered him more. The kid can play. Even in his bad games he gets to contests and gets his hands on the ball. But no you see him play a couple of average games and your Joel Sellwood/midfield bias over rides everything.
So if we did take Sellwood first then how do you propose we find the best replacements for Lloyd and Lucas. Given it takes 2 years or so for tall forwards find their feet what was your plan. Build the midfield first and then pick out the talls ? Or do we take a tall from a draft that has the most quality talls in it for a few years and then pick up the midfielders. Then in the next draft which isnt as strong (dpeth wise) you spend you number 1 pick on a midfielder who hopefully will be hitting his prime at the same time as that talls.

 

[Daytripper]

Which makes it ordinary , sorry but thats just the way i see it. It is the reason why i dont make sweeping commnets on other clubs lists . Although i do get to see other clubs play and generally i see how there kids go in the VFL 2 or 3 times a year you can make a proper call on it becasue it may well be that you see 2 or 3 of their worst games.
You keep going on about Gumbleton but i can tell you 100% you have managed to catch 3 of his worst VFL games. You seem to be expecting him to do something he is not ready to do yet. The fact he has come of a limited pre season and a serious hammy injury has only hindered him more. The kid can play. Even in his bad games he gets to contests and gets his hands on the ball. But no you see him play a couple of average games and your Joel Sellwood/midfield bias over rides everything.
So if we did take Sellwood first then how do you propose we find the best replacements for Lloyd and Lucas. Given it takes 2 years or so for tall forwards find their feet what was your plan. Build the midfield first and then pick out the talls ? Or do we take a tall from a draft that has the most quality talls in it for a few years and then pick up the midfielders. Then in the next draft which isnt as strong (dpeth wise) you spend you number 1 pick on a midfielder who hopefully will be hitting his prime at the same time as that talls.

Ant, I understand what you're saying - I really do.

However I can only judge by what I've seen so far and that is in all the games I've seen of Gumbleton he has hasn't done anything to set my pulse rating. Its not just necassarily a big mark or kicking a bag of goals, its just anything small that tells you that he is going to be a gun. I look at a player like Courtney Dempsey and even though he did bugger all really last season, it was just the way that he moved that indicated that he is going to be something special one day.

I do have a midfield/running bias - that is true as I believe the game is steadily turning that way. Maybe it does hampen my opinion on the big guys a little.

 

[ant555]

Ant, I understand what you're saying - I really do.

However I can only judge by what I've seen so far and that is in all the games I've seen of Gumbleton he has hasn't done anything to set my pulse rating. Its not just necassarily a big mark or kicking a bag of goals, its just anything small that tells you that he is going to be a gun. I look at a player like Courtney Dempsey and even though he did bugger all really last season, it was just the way that he moved that indicated that he is going to be something special one day.

I do have a midfield/running bias - that is true as I believe the game is steadily turning that way. Maybe it does hampen my opinion on the big guys a little.

So you dont see the differnce between Gumbleton and someone like Johns ?
You dont see that Gumby knows where to lead and how to get to contests ?
You havnt seen that for a big bloke he can actually tackle and has reasonable pace ?
They are the little things that KP players show.
If he had another 5kg on his frame he would be taking 10 or more marks a game.
What other small things does he have to do ? If he knows how to time his leads and can lead to effective spots without getting in the way of the other forwards what more do you need for a CHF ?

As for the game truning towards running midfielders it is but it isnt. It is the running half backs / half forwards that have turned it. Sides like Hawthorn and Geelong still have a number of talls playing but still look like running sides.
The fact is you still need talls. Unlike the old days you rarely need to go with more than 3 up forward or down back but the good sides all use a minimum of 2 KP players at each end. Last year you argued that the Bulldogs game plan was the new age way to go but as this year has shown it doesnt work without big blokes up forward.
The modern game is built around 2 to 3 KP players at each end . Two ruckmen and half forwards / forward pockets that work into the midfield rather than play as traditional forwards.

 

[Daytripper]

I have not seen any difference between Gumbleton and Johns in the games that I've seen to be honest.
As you said, I've probably caught his three worst games but I can only go on what I've seen.

I'm not going to rush in and say somebody is going to be a superstar just because his draft position says he ought to be. Lachlen Hansen was supposed to be the next incarnate of Chad Cornes according to a lot of posters here last year and thats not exactly going to plan either.

The Bulldogs have had a lot of injuries to key midfielders. I still think their model (and the Eagles as well to a slightly lesser extent) is the way of the future.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

You are seriously underestimating Neagle and Gumbleton.

He's definatley underestimating Gumbleton.

.... I'm not so sure about Neagle.

 

[monty1104]

What a strange thread. Daytripper, how have you come up with these rankings? I'd like to know how you came up with the rankings.

 

[Daytripper]

What a strange thread. Daytripper, how have you come up with these rankings? I'd like to know how you came up with the rankings.

x=((a+(c*d)/5)*(a+b)*4))/10

 

[Merv]

He's definatley underestimating Gumbleton.

.... I'm not so sure about Neagle.

Thank you for your feedback.

It has been forwarded to the relevant department

 

[ant555]

He's definatley underestimating Gumbleton.

.... I'm not so sure about Neagle.

Given you could not have seen him play i dont know how you could be sure about being not so sure......

 

[ant555]

I have not seen any difference between Gumbleton and Johns in the games that I've seen to be honest.
As you said, I've probably caught his three worst games but I can only go on what I've seen.

I'm not going to rush in and say somebody is going to be a superstar just because his draft position says he ought to be. Lachlen Hansen was supposed to be the next incarnate of Chad Cornes according to a lot of posters here last year and thats not exactly going to plan either.

The Bulldogs have had a lot of injuries to key midfielders. I still think their model (and the Eagles as well to a slightly lesser extent) is the way of the future.

I must say it surprises me that you havnt seen the difference between Johns and Gumby. It is simple, even on his bad days Gumby knows how to get near the footy If a kid has the right instincs to get in or near the play you can work with the other areas. It is like you saying Dempsey shows potential becasue of the way he moves.

As for the Dogs it is not the injuries to key mids that has been their problem. It certainly didnt help losing Cross and West for various games but at the end of the day their rucks are not good enough and they simply need a couple of decent forward targets. Rocket has admittied it himself saying that they need to target Fevola or a good KP forward.
The Eagles play talls anyway.Lynch is always up forward. Whenever hanson is fit he gets a game. They took Mitch Brown with their first pick and have used him up forward at times.They play two big ruckmen. They also use a couple of talls in defence.
Anyway you will be happy to know that this year i think we should be drafting a genuine midfielder with our first pick and from what i have seen there are 4 or so who are pretty close if not as good as Sellwood.

 

[High Ryder]

Also think your being very very harsh on Lonergan. There are a ton of players i'd delist ahead of him.

 

[Wahooti Fandango]

I must say it surprises me that you havnt seen the difference between Johns and Gumby. It is simple, even on his bad days Gumby knows how to get near the footy If a kid has the right instincs to get in or near the play you can work with the other areas. It is like you saying Dempsey shows potential becasue of the way he moves.

As for the Dogs it is not the injuries to key mids that has been their problem. It certainly didnt help losing Cross and West for various games but at the end of the day their rucks are not good enough and they simply need a couple of decent forward targets. Rocket has admittied it himself saying that they need to target Fevola or a good KP forward.
The Eagles play talls anyway.Lynch is always up forward. Whenever hanson is fit he gets a game. They took Mitch Brown with their first pick and have used him up forward at times.They play two big ruckmen. They also use a couple of talls in defence.
Anyway you will be happy to know that this year i think we should be drafting a genuine midfielder with our first pick and from what i have seen there are 4 or so who are pretty close if not as good as Sellwood.

What about Skipper?

 

[SOT4]

I have not seen any difference between Gumbleton and Johns in the games that I've seen to be honest.
As you said, I've probably caught his three worst games but I can only go on what I've seen.

I've only seen a couple of Gumby's games but there are marked differences between him and Johns. Gumby is a lot more agile than Johns for starters. He can also tackle and provide with second efforts. I think you're actually being biased against Gumby when you watch him because of your preference for midfielders.

Anyway you will be happy to know that this year i think we should be drafting a genuine midfielder with our first pick and from what i have seen there are 4 or so who are pretty close if not as good as Sellwood.

Off topic I know, but who would you consider to be these 4 midfielders ant? I'm assuming that it includes Cotchin, and probably Masten but who else, and do you think they will still be around by our pick?