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List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2
- Thread starter go_the_dockers
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At the end of the day if freo over pay they over pay….the draft is a lottery
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That's not the discussion though. Everyone here understands how the draft works.
Let me put it a different way,
You go to the bakery and you've got 20 bucks. You see 4 nice loaves of bread and it adds up to 20 bucks. You say to yourself: 'you beauty, last year I couldn't afford any loaves of bread, now I get 4. This year, they're apparently really good loaves as well'.
Just as you're about to walk off with your 4 loaves the guy brings out a freshly baked Raison Bread. You love Raisin Bread, It's exactly what you need. So you ask: 'Sir, how much is the Raisin Bread'?
'$18.50' the Baker says.
"Go fk your Raisin Bread. I'll take 4 loaves please.'
If the draft is a lottery, then the correct draft strategy is to maximise your lottery tickets every year and then throw the used tickets in the bin ASAP if they don't turn up trumps.
Throwing picks out the window? That's being pretty disingenuous. Unless the trade has morphed into us gifting Richmond 3 first rounders for Rhyan Mansell without me noticing.
The Suns are also a completely different case and haven't been able to keep much of their top line talent, let alone attract players like Bolton. We're hardly a destination club but the Suns' swathe of picks comes from being perennially bottom 4-8 and getting lots of early Christmas presents from the AFL. They do throw picks out the window but only because they've always had a glut of them from player trades and priority selections.
The degree to which Shai Bolton improves this team is well worth any "risk" that comes with trading away picks. Doubly so given the last 4 rounds showed how short of experience we are AND how desperately we need a potent small forward.
IMO it would be just as much of a risk to our odds of winning a flag as many key first 18 players enter their prime (i.e. within the next year or so) if we purely drafted this season, given the draft itself is chance.
They are different types of players.
Serong and Young, especially Serong are more structural players. We already have lots of good players like that.
Bolton is a much better match winner than either of them.
We lack that type of player.
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It could only be a small one.
I will say we need more forwards that just Bolton.
The draft would be great for that.
A Kai Lohmann/Cody weightman/Darcy Jones type from pick 15-20 would be fantastic get alongside Bolton.
Also our team isn’t a set and forget for the next 6 years. Brisbanes 22 has dramatically changed since they first entered this window in 2019.
Since that first season when they played finals in this run, they have added the following that play tomorrow:
Joe Daniher
Josh Dunkley
Cal AhChee
Conor McKenna
Darcy Fort
All via trades
Then from the draft in that period since their first finals campaign in 2019 the following were drafted:
Kai Lohmann 2021
Darcy Wilmot 2021
Will Ashcroft 2022
Jaspa Fletcher 2022
Logan Morris 2023
It’s probably comparable to say we are at a similar point to the 2019 lions in our evolution with 5 or 6 years of contending ahead of us hopefully.
However their experience shows that new talent has to be continually added via draft and trade each year.
We won’t be any different.
Our B23 in 2029 will have 10 different players in it compared to our B23 in 2025. That’s a certainty.
The draft would be great for that.
A Kai Lohmann/Cody weightman/Darcy Jones type from pick 15-20 would be fantastic get alongside Bolton.
Also our team isn’t a set and forget for the next 6 years. Brisbanes 22 has dramatically changed since they first entered this window in 2019.
Since that first season when they played finals in this run, they have added the following that play tomorrow:
Joe Daniher
Josh Dunkley
Cal AhChee
Conor McKenna
Darcy Fort
All via trades
Then from the draft in that period since their first finals campaign in 2019 the following were drafted:
Kai Lohmann 2021
Darcy Wilmot 2021
Will Ashcroft 2022
Jaspa Fletcher 2022
Logan Morris 2023
It’s probably comparable to say we are at a similar point to the 2019 lions in our evolution with 5 or 6 years of contending ahead of us hopefully.
However their experience shows that new talent has to be continually added via draft and trade each year.
We won’t be any different.
Our B23 in 2029 will have 10 different players in it compared to our B23 in 2025. That’s a certainty.
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Richmond will need to draft a small forward to replace Bolton.
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Agree. Most people would rather take Bolton than use the equivalent FAIR picks in the draft. This is the whole basis for the poll. What is fair value?
Strong talk is that Bolton requires our first two picks. That’s too much.
Bolton allegedly has a bloated salary so the fair deal is 9 and 16 with Richmond bringing his salary back to $800k per year by paying part of it.
It is the perfect balance unless Pickett is available. Bringing in Bolton and Pickett would make us a scary match up and do wonders for our premiership chances. I hope with all my fingers and toes crossed that Pickett and Melbourne are keen this year to get it done.
Jackson Treacy Amiss
Bolton Sturt Pickett
It is the perfect balance unless Pickett is available. Bringing in Bolton and Pickett would make us a scary match up and do wonders for our premiership chances. I hope with all my fingers and toes crossed that Pickett and Melbourne are keen this year to get it done.
Jackson Treacy Amiss
Bolton Sturt Pickett
freo84
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It is the perfect balance unless Pickett is available. Bringing in Bolton and Pickett would make us a scary match up and do wonders for our premiership chances. I hope with all my fingers and toes crossed that Pickett and Melbourne are keen this year to get it done.
Jackson Treacy Amiss
Bolton Sturt Pickett
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I find this post quite amusing when it comes 10 minutes after posting your own non sensical bakery analogy.
Our last top 10 pick was Neil Erasmus, why do people assume it'll be Caleb Serong? Serong is an anomaly, not the norm
An anomaly like Young and Amiss? Our two top 10 picks before that?
And Jye Amiss, is he an anomaly too?
This is a strong draft apparently so we need to be comfortable getting Bolton and Richmond using the pick on a Serong/Young caliber prospect who will play for the Tigers for years. Or 2 of them would you’re that way inclined.
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