Bigman’s Training Reports

[Mostyn]

Two things:

1. Given the disparity in CBA attendances between Rankine & Crouch …. statistically Rankine is the better clearance player

It's a percentage. Your math doesn't really make sense.

 

[Vader]

Two things:

1. Given the disparity in CBA attendances between Rankine & Crouch …. statistically Rankine is the better clearance player

Add Peatling who offers speed, along with Rankine ..plus better defensive actions …. there’s no need for Crouch, given his defficiencies

How do you figure this? The post you quoted says that Crouch generates a centre clearance from 14.3% of the CBA he attends, while Rankine's figure is only 12.7%. You'd have a valid point if those were absolute numbers (i.e. 14.3 per game and 12.7 per game), but they're not - they're pro-ratad to eliminate biases due to some players (e.g. Rankine) attending fewer CBAs.

2. Will Crouch get a new Contract at years end ? ….. doubt it, so prefer to get midfield games into Draper, Rachelle and Pedlar

Even ANB offers more defensive transition pressure than Crouch

Highly likely he does get a new contract if he continues to perform. If his form falls away, as it did in late 2022 - mid 2023, then he probably won't.

 

[Flip Side]

I think Matt made a visible change at the end of '23 - he started to take options that were forward of the ball (instead of just releasing it to a player not in an attacking position), and he hit the contest at pace, trying to be more proactive.

I think he's safe and very underestimated around here - but there's a lot of competition for spots

I also think clubs don't really use metres gained as a stat - I think they use assisted metres gained?

He gives effort and finds the ball - but there is a reason no other side in the league even gave him an offer.

Yes he does provide some safety and perhaps that’s why AFC keep picking him. I think it’s time for Nicks to stop playing it so safe. It’s not winning enough games.

Metrics can only be used in combination- I appreciate that. But it was a post about stats and that one stood out.

 

[Mutineer]

How do you figure this? The post you quoted says that Crouch generates a centre clearance from 14.3% of the CBA he attends, while Rankine's figure is only 12.7%. You'd have a valid point if those were absolute numbers (i.e. 14.3 per game and 12.7 per game), but they're not - they're pro-ratad to eliminate biases due to some players (e.g. Rankine) attending fewer CBAs.

Highly likely he does get a new contract if he continues to perform. If his form falls away, as it did in late 2022 - mid 2023, then he probably won't.

Wayno and 1970 have been gazumped but can't bring themselves to admit they're wrong despite Wheelo the best statistic site on the planet confirming it. If and when another player steps up to that plate only then will he he not be picked. Soligolooks the best equiped but doubt he's ready just yet.

 

[1970crow]

He's shown very little over his career.

He’s an ok half back when he’s up and going. But there’s a fair bit of competition for spots in our back 6. 2 x KPD, Worrrell, Max, Laird, Hinge & Cumming make 7. And that’s leaving out Nank and Bond, both of whom have proven good enough at the level. At his age and injury history, he’d want be in front of the discussion about who takes the last spot of 7. And even that’s reliant on one of Hinge or Cumming playing further up field. And Jones hasn’t even entered the selection discussion and he’s played some good footy behind the ball.
There’s a small cohort of posters that severely overate what Milera brings to the team.

 

[Big Dub]

I assume Dawson is much lower.

Dawson goes at 9.3%.

I should have looked Peatling up before. He goes at 14.8% (1.8 clearnaces per game) and could still be improving, as could Soligo.

 

[Flip Side]

Why is that!

You have your opinion, I have my opinion, aren't people allowed to have a different opinion to yours?

“Opinions are like ….”?

Yes you’ve really shown how you welcome other opinions.

informative

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Dawson goes at 9.3%.

I should have looked Peatling up before. He goes at 14.8% (1.8 clearnaces per game) and could still be improving, as could Soligo.

Thanks... Dawson is still the player we want the likes of Couch to feed.

 

[ABAB]

It’s the negativity that comes with mature players coming back from injury ….. there is an ageism bias amongst supporters

Milera is highly talented ….. i just don’t get either, that people just can’t see the difference he makes to the side

3 entire years completely loss to major injuries including 2 consecutive years.....

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Pure rubbish …. you have some strange takes sometimes

Still waiting for someone to tell us why Milera is any good, and why we'd play him ahead of Cumming or Hinge.

 

[1970crow]

Reckon their clearance rates would be similar, but Crouch usually thinks more about how he is going to dispose the ball.

Agree 100%, which is why raw clearance stats are t much more use than raw hitouts won. Laird’s largest portion of clearances are indiscriminate hacks forward. Matt is much more considered, holding the ball and looking for targets and then has a very neat and reliable left leg when he’s does kick.

But when talking about who the best clearance player is, we need to consider how many clearance opportunities each player has and how damaging their clearances are. And also they’re defensive output too.

I recall the same argument being put forward for Thommo during the cooked ending to his career. His clearance and tackle numbers remained good. But he wasn’t contributing any quality or anything outside of clearance based stats. And our midfield improved markedly in 2017 when he was no longer in there.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

I feel like at his absolute best Milera 'could' be a very handy wingman for us and an upgrade on Sholl.

As Kane said - want to see Milera have a good 4 week block in SANFL and play full games and look in good touch.

Another bad injury and think his career is completely cooked.

 

[1970crow]

I don't know where that stat is, but Wheelo Ratings tracks centre clearances per centre bounce attendance.

Crouch runs at 14.3% (5th best in AFL for 2 or more clearances a game), Rankine 12.7%, Laird 12.2% and Soligo 12.0%. Berry goes at 8.1%.

And that’s barely a large enough difference if the player doesn’t have defensive aspect, particularly spread and also limits flexibility due to inability to rotate through other roles. I would have thought if you’re clearance or bust, that you’d be ahead by a fair bit more than that. That’s said, centre clearances are a small amount of overall clearances, so the question remains.

 

[1970crow]

There’s no such thing as clearance rate per minute

There is, it’s just that it’s either not published or recorded. Does anyone measure TOG per role? It’s important if we’re going to compare players who have only one role with others who play multiple roles. To compare TT’s goal scoring average against a pure key forward, we need to take into account the amount of time he spends relief rucking.

Might be too difficult for a SuperCoach lemming, but not too hard for everyone else.

 

[1970crow]

I agree with you that Berry isn’t convincing as the alternative. Games where he has an attack of the fumbles are concerning.

I don’t think it has to be Crouch or Berry though. Soligo may well be the extractor for Peatling and Rankine. Or perhaps it’s Draper, or one of the other young lads.

I think most premiership midfields got by without a ‘designated extractor’.

 

[Mostyn]

Wayno and 1970 have been gazumped but can't bring themselves to admit they're wrong despite Wheelo the best statistic site on the planet confirming it. If and when another player steps up to that plate only then will he he not be picked. Soligolooks the best equiped but doubt he's ready just yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if Crouch's replacement was someone we add to the midfield from outside the club.

We're almost finished with the midfield - but if the chance for a genuine a-lister comes along ...

 

[Mostyn]

“Opinions are like ….”?

Yes you’ve really shown how you welcome other opinions.

informative

FWIW - I thought yours was a good post, and has prompted some discussion in the quiet season ...

 

[Flip Side]

1970 raises an excellent point

If you are assigned the primary clearance role in particular you should be well ahead.

I can’t see them asking Dawson to perform the same inside role as Crouch, that makes no sense.

Wheelo stats also shows Jones is an absolute beast for cc/cba - 100% in 2023 and 2024.
Dowling went at 20 last year, while Solio was doing 17s in 2023.

Small samples I know so it can be misleading, or indicative of potential.

However both Berry and Schoenberg were out performing Crouch in 2022 so role and opportunity can make a big difference.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

It's a percentage. Your math doesn't really make sense.

It does if you think it thru

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think most premiership midfields got by without a ‘designated extractor’.

No !

 

[WaynesWorld19]

There is, it’s just that it’s either not published or recorded. Does anyone measure TOG per role? It’s important if we’re going to compare players who have only one role with others who play multiple roles. To compare TT’s goal scoring average against a pure key forward, we need to take into account the amount of time he spends relief rucking.

Might be too difficult for a SuperCoach lemming, but not too hard for everyone else.

Cmon, you made it up ….. your saying the stat isn’t published or recorded, but it exists

But you know ???

BTW, TOG per role is published

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Still waiting for someone to tell us why Milera is any good, and why we'd play him ahead of Cumming or Hinge.

No one has said Milera will be played b4 Hinge and Cumming

They will all co-exist ….. Cumming primarily last season occupied a WING

Hinge has played in the side alongside both Hinge and Smith

Milera will play over Jones ….. if the consensus was last year our ball movement was poor …. Milera will run lines with elite disposal
Talk of him having brain fades is ridiculous

Yes, i can see Milera’s TOG being restricted early season …. and Cumming rotating back between HB and WING during games

 

[1970crow]

Wayno and 1970 have been gazumped but can't bring themselves to admit they're wrong despite Wheelo the best statistic site on the planet confirming it. If and when another player steps up to that plate only then will he he not be picked. Soligolooks the best equiped but doubt he's ready just yet.

I'm not wrong, Waynus is wrong because he doesn't understand rudimentary mathematics. I've no problem agreeing that Matt Crouch provides best raw clearance numbers in our side. However, I also question the value of raw clearance numbers, particularly in terms of ignoring damage caused, combination of roles, defensive spread/function and also limitation to overall flexibility.

Not that it's important, but according to Wheeloratings, Chayce Jones is #1 for centre clearances per centre bounce, Keays #2 and Billy Dowling is #3. Then comes Crouch with Rankine 1.6 per 100 contests and Laird 2.1 behind him in 4th and 5th. Now, we're talking only centre clearances here and none of those variances per 100 events warrant ignoring every other aspect of what contributes to performance on the football field. After 100 centre ruck contests, Matt Crouch will have won the clearance 2.1 times more than Rory Laird who we sacked as a midfielder. The raw numbers, at least with centre clearances, do not make any meaningful case for Matty Crouch.

When it comes to raw stoppage numbers, both Crouch and Laird average 3.3 per game, they are 1 & 2 for our side. Which I think proves my earlier point, that Laird would be about the same as Crouch, given that Laird was banished to the backline just past half way through the year.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

3 entire years completely loss to major injuries including 2 consecutive years.....

That doesnt impact his talent, just his resiliance

The saying goes … you’re injury prone until such time you’re not injury prone

 

[1970crow]

Cmon, you made it up ….. your saying the stat isn’t published or recorded, but it exists

But you know ???

BTW, TOG per role is published

If TOG per role is published, then clearance rate per minute is available. Just needs to factored against number of stoppages against the average.