Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[Dtennent94]

To express Collingwood's 'dire situation' another way, the best 22 in 2028 (without considering any new draftees, developing players or players brought in via trade or free agency) will be:

Quaynor ~ Moore - Maynard
J. Daicos ~ McInnes ~ Houston
McCreery ~ Perryman ~ ???
Harrison ~ ??? ~ De Goey
Hill ~ McStay ~ Schultz
Cameron ~ Daicos ~ Lipinski
Crisp ~ ??? ~ ??? ~ ???

This is based on the 24 players listed in my earlier who are currently our most proven players, in addition to Harrison who has shown enough at the level.

Any to show how much lists evolve in a 4 year period, here are the players from the proposed team above who weren't on Collingwood's list in 2020 - McInnes, Houston, Perryman, Harrison, Hill, McStay, Schultz, Cameron, N. Daicos, Lipinski. 10 of the 17 players listed.

It’s easy to see Allan, Parker, McGuane and Condon slotting in here.

Would be terribly unlucky for none of our other draftees to become viable options. DeMattia, Jiath, West, Hayes all have decent potential.

Frampton isn’t too old and while he’s no world-beater he may hang around on minimum coin and we may as well hang onto him as nice depth for a few roles.

I’m not even slightly concerned for our list. Opposition will be crying when they see us bring in McGuane, Condon and 2x more Trade/FA targets this year.

 

[BigVic]

No need to panic at all for us. We have young players and a McGuane coming in next year

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

Fair enough, looking forward to seeing Collingwood travel 11 times next year & not sleep in their own bed and win the flag.

Are you aware of our record interstate?

 

[Bianconeri]

I don't disagree, and it's a disgrace.

Disgraceful we’re using a different strategy?

 

[CakeEater]

Are you aware of our record interstate?

Have you travelled interstate 10 times in a year ever?

thats a variable thst significantly impacts performance that you guys dont need to worry about

 

[Fadge]

Have you travelled interstate 10 times in a year ever?

thats a variable thst significantly impacts performance that you guys dont need to worry about

Cry me a river...

It hasn't stopped the quality interstate teams from winning a flag over the journey.

 

[black is White]

Cry me a river...

It hasn't stopped the quality interstate teams from winning a flag over the journey.

Maybe it only affects Freo and that's why he's so sour.

 

[stallon]

Cry me a river...

It hasn't stopped the quality interstate teams from winning a flag over the journey.

Quality non vic teams*

They've won despite the disadvantages, 3 non vic winners since 2007, when the afl did an investigation into why the vic teams were so shit.
3 out of 18 indicates it has stopped them winning

 

[Mr Meow]

Quality non vic teams*

They've won despite the disadvantages, 3 non vic winners since 2007, when the afl did an investigation into why the vic teams were so shit.
3 out of 18 indicates it has stopped them winning

It's not quite as bad if we start at 2001. 9 of the last 24? The advantage didn't just change overnight when West Coast won in 2006, so it makes no real sense to draw an arbitrary line there.

Then if you take out teams that don't get to play finals at their main home ground (Geelong, Bulldogs) you end up with 9 Non-Vic vs 10 Vic flags since 2001. Pretty even.

 

[stallon]

It's not quite as bad if we start at 2001. 9 of the last 24? The advantage didn't just change overnight when West Coast won in 2006, so it makes no real sense to draw an arbitrary line there.

Then if you take out teams that don't get to play finals at their main home ground (Geelong, Bulldogs) you end up with 9 Non-Vic vs 10 Vic flags since 2001. Pretty even.

Taking out the cats who get the best of both worlds is just dishonest, one of the worst takes lmao. Dogs are still a vic team.
It's not about home ground advantage It's about the travel load lmfao

 

[Chronz]

bzparkes can't stop thinking about the Pies, just make the change already and sign up for a membership.

 

[Mr Meow]

Taking out the cats who get the best of both worlds is just dishonest, one of the worst takes lmao. Dogs are still a vic team.
It's not about home ground advantage It's about the travel load lmfao

Nah now you're just giving one of the classic saltiest takes. Teams that don't have any finals at their primary home ground are disadvantaged. MCG teams get the GF at their ground as well, hence the biggest leg up.

So it's disadvantage to Marvel teams the most, then Geelong, then the non Vic teams, then the MCG teams (within that order, whoever plays the MCG the most has the bigger advantage, e.g Collingwood a bigger advantage than Carlton and Essendon). That's the order. MCG vs non Vic team flags this century is quite even really. Remember, two of those MCG team premierships were actually won outside of Victoria as well. Those were seasons where they had absolutely no advantage.

 

[doppleganger]

Fair enough, looking forward to seeing Collingwood travel 11 times next year & not sleep in their own bed and win the flag.

Looking forward to winning the flag despite only having 4 home games at the MCG against travelling opponents.

Compared to Freo who have 11 games at Optus against travelling opponents.

 

[Lunchtime]

Have you travelled interstate 10 times in a year ever?

thats a variable thst significantly impacts performance that you guys dont need to worry about

We aren't seriously going go down that path again about a Vic club and their lack of travel? The league/competition...it is what it is.

 

[doppleganger]

Taking out the cats who get the best of both worlds is just dishonest, one of the worst takes lmao. Dogs are still a vic team.
It's not about home ground advantage It's about the travel load lmfao

You should move the Hawks and their 4 flags to the non-vic group. They travel 10 times each year.

The 2015 flag must be one of the all time greats, the Hawks criss crossed the country during September, whilst the Eagles didn't leave Perth.

Heroic of the Hawks to overcome the travel load and win the flag.

 

[Gavin Excell]

There's a strong correlation between age profile and top 4 success. Though to a certain extent agree with BZ comment earlier about father son outcomes playing a part in it all

 

[Rotayjay]

Disgraceful we’re using a different strategy?

Disgraceful how compromised the draft is.

 

[Obeanie1]

Actually Cameron was like a 6 pick downgrade in the 3rd round. Basically free.

Yep. Didnt think he cost much at all.

And now he is one of rhe top 5 rucks in the comp.

Collingwood are very good at targeting and attracting ready made players that dont cost top dollar in draft capital. Pies and Cats are the best trade operators in the comp.

 

[bzparkes]

bzparkes can't stop thinking about the Pies, just make the change already and sign up for a membership.

I don't really care about the Pies, I thought it was interesting from the article, that even the AFL journos don't think they have any real young talent worth mentioning.

Happy for you to prove them wrong

 

[DangerSloane]

We heard this after 2021.

Geelong have been hearing it since 2010.

People need to start realising that AFL is now a game for seasoned players with mature bodies and minds.

It's no coincidence the older teams in the competition are continuing to win the flag each year.

Disagree completely.
More than ever the young brigade can come in and be a superstar of the competition from day 1.

10 years ago even, just didn't happen.
Think about Ablett, Franklin, Martin etc...they took years to reach gun status and we are talking potential GOATs

Now you've got guys like Daicos and Reid among many others who are absolute stars from their first game.

Its a younger mans game more than ever. More running, less hard bodied contests... I think you're miles off.

 

[DangerSloane]

Looking forward to winning the flag despite only having 4 home games at the MCG against travelling opponents.

Compared to Freo who have 11 games at Optus against travelling opponents.

Collingwood fans can never whinge about the draw. NEVER.

 

[CakeEater]

Looking forward to winning the flag despite only having 4 home games at the MCG against travelling opponents.

Compared to Freo who have 11 games at Optus against travelling opponents.

You know the counter point to this is that Freo/ Wce have to win the flag by winning away games against travelling opponents

BTW - i acknowledge that Perth is a long way a way away from everything therefore more travel load. But i do find its ridicolous that C.Serong has played in more stadiums then Pendlebury and theres what 10 years expierence between the two.

This is emblematic of the first point i made, Collingwood gets a soft draw very very often in modern times as a deliberate strategy by the AFL. This aids you to not be in trouble, which means the OP is debunked.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Collingwood have stated their veiw is the draft is dead. So compromised they focus on trades and free agency.

Sure they are forced to use a 1st round pick every so many years however they are one club that has no qualms about trading future picks for players.

Collingwood being a destination club can do this as they are never short of quality players happy to be traded there.

How it works out for them time will tell.

They will have a tonne of older players to replace in the next 2 years, and they won’t have the picks to do it with Tassie coming in, which puts a lot of pressure on them to hit Free Agency…

 

[Fadge]

Disagree completely.
More than ever the young brigade can come in and be a superstar of the competition from day 1.

10 years ago even, just didn't happen.
Think about Ablett, Franklin, Martin etc...they took years to reach gun status and we are talking potential GOATs

Now you've got guys like Daicos and Reid among many others who are absolute stars from their first game.

Its a younger mans game more than ever. More running, less hard bodied contests... I think you're miles off.

Why then, is the average age of premiership teams getting older, not younger?

 

[Obeanie1]

They will have a tonne of older players to replace in the next 2 years, and they won’t have the picks to do it with Tassie coming in, which puts a lot of pressure on them to hit Free Agency…

Which is their strategy.

And in a couple of years after Tasmania has developed the kids taken with 1st round picks the Pies will trade them in on the cheap. Just like it did with GWS.

Being the biggest destination club in Melbourne makes this strategy work for them.

It's an advantage they have developed over decades and taking full advantage of.

They play in big games at the MCG more than any other club so top players will always be attracted to them.