Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[bradfisher14]

Reading the thread title:

Reading the thread description:

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Which is their strategy.

And in a couple of years after Tasmania has developed the kids taken with 1st round picks the Pies will trade them in on the cheap. Just like it did with GWS.

Be8ng the biggest destination club 8n Melbourne makes this strategy work for them.

It's an advantage they have developed over decades and taking full advantage of.

They play is big games at the MCG more than any other club so top players will always be attracted to them.

They’ll be competing with a bunch of MCG tenants though, and they will still have the oldest list in the comp.

You have taken a simplistic view on it, which doesn’t cater for the fact that they’ve already had quite a few players not jump to them over the last 5 years, and with the age profile getting older it will likely be even harder in another 18 months time.

Sure there will be players who want to play with Daicos, but the age of the list is perilous, and they have such a large number of players to replace.

 

[Fadge]

They’ll be competing with a bunch of MCG tenants though, and they will still have the oldest list in the comp.

You have taken a simplistic view on it, which doesn’t cater for the fact that they’ve already had quite a few players not jump to them over the last 5 years, and with the age profile getting older it will likely be even harder in another 18 months time.

Sure there will be players who want to play with Daicos, but the age of the list is perilous, and they have such a large number of players to replace.

'Perilous' - at least we're getting a variety of adjectives to describe our dire predicament....

 

[stallon]

They’ll be competing with a bunch of MCG tenants though, and they will still have the oldest list in the comp.

You have taken a simplistic view on it, which doesn’t cater for the fact that they’ve already had quite a few players not jump to them over the last 5 years, and with the age profile getting older it will likely be even harder in another 18 months time.

Sure there will be players who want to play with Daicos, but the age of the list is perilous, and they have such a large number of players to replace.

Yeah with a much worse list profile in a couple years time it'll be a much harder sell to get young players or players in their prime to join.

There will be other clubs actually contending that will be more attractive.

 

[The Magnificent Seven]

They will have a tonne of older players to replace in the next 2 years, and they won’t have the picks to do it with Tassie coming in, which puts a lot of pressure on them to hit Free Agency…

That's every club, not just Pies. Besides, we have a pretty good record of being fair traders and clubs are happy to send talent our way knowing they get a good deal.

A 'tonne' I'm not so sure. We likely lose 3-4 this year. We get at least 2 great recruits we know of and then take on 2 speculative picks and probably swap in some older talent.

'Serious trouble' is very click-baity.

 

[McOrist]

Collingwood fans can never whinge about the draw. NEVER.

I agree -we can't whinge about our fixture.
The AFL generously gives us lots of games at Adelaide Oval -which we always win.

 

[bzparkes]

Collingwood fans can never whinge about the draw. NEVER.

The bloke you quoted is king of the sooks though.

 

[bzparkes]

Reading the thread title:

Reading the thread description:

Sorry, should've just written the OP as 'Discuss'.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Our VFL year was more due to us having a god awful VFL squad than anything else.
Allan was excellent in the final round last year and Parker managed a handful of games which looked promising coming off no preseason as a cat B cricket convert. Both looked good tonight too.
Harrison literally got a rising star nomination last year before injury.

But yeah, no exposed form

Against the wooden spoon favourite in a pre season match is not really a gauge whether the young talent is any good. Was a training drill in the 2nd half because of the Tigers younger bodies. You guys will be good this year I'm pretty sure, it's whether you can sustain it over a longer period with both Sidevottom and Pendlebury not there. This really should be Steele's last season. I thought last year he was teetering, must believe it was an aberration and he can get back to the form of the years before. He would want to hope so because if he meanders along like last year he's blocking the way of somebody else in the squad to show their wares at the top level.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Collingwood missed finals by percentage in 2024 (beating the eventual premiers in the lead up to finals and having a narrow loss to the other Grand Finalist), after losing a narrow Preliminary Final in 2022, and winning the flag in 2023.

Their list has been improved with Houston and Perryman this year.

'Losing Strategy' indeed....

In what way has it improved? Houston is good don't get me wrong but Perryman doesn't move the dial much. Your tall forwards revolve around Mihochek who's what 34?.

 

[Obeanie1]

They’ll be competing with a bunch of MCG tenants though, and they will still have the oldest list in the comp.

You have taken a simplistic view on it, which doesn’t cater for the fact that they’ve already had quite a few players not jump to them over the last 5 years, and with the age profile getting older it will likely be even harder in another 18 months time.

Sure there will be players who want to play with Daicos, but the age of the list is perilous, and they have such a large number of players to replace.

You call it simplistic.

I describe it as realistic based on past history including recent history.

They just landed Houston a top shelf AA quality 29 yr old half back for a F1st likely in the teens that will slide to the 20s plus pick 36 that slid to rhe mid 40s. And moved on a couple of fringe players.

That isn't paying huge draft capital for a top shelf half back is it? A pick in the 30s and another in the mid 40s.

This is what Collingwood does and regularly.

I would be over the moon if the Eagles could match the Pies in quality trades but the Eagles are a different club with different advantages and different access to players.

If any club can make this work it's Collingwood. They surprise people every year with the quality players they attract.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Have you travelled interstate 10 times in a year ever?

thats a variable thst significantly impacts performance that you guys dont need to worry about

I think it was 1999 when they last played Geelong down in Geelong for example!

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

To express Collingwood's 'dire situation' another way, the best 22 in 2028 (without considering any new draftees, developing players or players brought in via trade or free agency) will be:

Quaynor ~ Moore - Maynard
J. Daicos ~ McInnes ~ Houston
McCreery ~ Perryman ~ ???
Harrison ~ ??? ~ De Goey
Hill ~ McStay ~ Schultz
Cameron ~ Daicos ~ Lipinski
Crisp ~ ??? ~ ??? ~ ???

This is based on the 24 players listed in my earlier who are currently our most proven players, in addition to Harrison who has shown enough at the level.

Any to show how much lists evolve in a 4 year period, here are the players from the proposed team above who weren't on Collingwood's list in 2020 - McInnes, Houston, Perryman, Harrison, Hill, McStay, Schultz, Cameron, N. Daicos, Lipinski. 10 of the 17 players listed.

Maynard and McStay will be mid 30s by 2028. If there still in the best 22 that's an issue. Crisp could play till he's 40 no arguments there. He's destined to break the games record if he keeps playing every week.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

That's every club, not just Pies. Besides, we have a pretty good record of being fair traders and clubs are happy to send talent our way knowing they get a good deal.

A 'tonne' I'm not so sure. We likely lose 3-4 this year. We get at least 2 great recruits we know of and then take on 2 speculative picks and probably swap in some older talent.

'Serious trouble' is very click-baity.

You’ve got 1 top 10 pick on your list under the age of 28, Daicos. He’s a star, but you need a bunch of young stars to help him going forward.

Picking up role players or DFA’s can keep you from completely bottoming out, but you’ve also got possibly 10 players to replace in the next 2 years, who are still a big part of your 22.

S. Pendlebury (37)
S. Sidebottom (34)
J. Howe (34)
M. Cox (33)
B. Mihocek (32)
J. Elliott (32)
T. Mitchell (31)
J. Crisp (31)
W. Hoskin-Elliott (31)
T. Membrey (30)
D. Cameron (29)
D. McStay (29)
J. De Goey (28)

Couldn’t pick a worse time to be wanting to re-tool with Tassie coming in, and you will simply have to nail free agency.

 

[bzparkes]

They’ll be competing with a bunch of MCG tenants though, and they will still have the oldest list in the comp.

You have taken a simplistic view on it, which doesn’t cater for the fact that they’ve already had quite a few players not jump to them over the last 5 years, and with the age profile getting older it will likely be even harder in another 18 months time.

None of the other MCG tenants are realistically as attractive to play for as Collingwood though, as they're the biggest and highest profile club of the lot, so there'll always be a draw for players to move to them over the others, especially older players with the lack of travel they do.

Of course, this'll only be an attractive option for star players if Collingwood are contending. They'll appeal a lot less at the bottom of the ladder.

Sure there will be players who want to play with Daicos, but the age of the list is perilous, and they have such a large number of players to replace.

That's the issue with this strat IMO. if they can't replace via free agency, then they have to trade and if they've already traded out of future drafts for previous players, then they won't have much to offer and will be stuck picking the dregs of the draft, hoping to find a diamond in the rough.

This will lead to have a small few overpaid players(due to having to pay them more to move from their current clubs) and a bunch of C graders.

I think the strategy could work if their list was younger but it feels like they should've hit the draft before Tasmania first before going down this path.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

They will have a tonne of older players to replace in the next 2 years, and they won’t have the picks to do it with Tassie coming in, which puts a lot of pressure on them to hit Free Agency…

I did say something similar on the Blues and Pies banter thread before. Surely the Pies should try and load up on younger talent before the Tassie team compromises the draft?

It will be interesting to see if this strategy backfires spectacularly on them.

 

[mumblingpie]

I think McCreery is probably the player I would have had listed as being a breakout player this Season over Bobby

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Which is their strategy.

And in a couple of years after Tasmania has developed the kids taken with 1st round picks the Pies will trade them in on the cheap. Just like it did with GWS.

Being the biggest destination club in Melbourne makes this strategy work for them.

It's an advantage they have developed over decades and taking full advantage of.

They play in big games at the MCG more than any other club so top players will always be attracted to them.

It's fortunate they won in 2023 because if they didn't what would be the incentive outside of the biggest club in Australia? I'd rather play for a successful club than the biggest club. I'd compare them to the Lakers in the NBA, they won a couple of years back so it's worked having superstars go there but if it didn't all you have is a bucketload of cash. What I'm saying is being the biggest club in the land will work up to a point. If you don't win a flag in 20 years it's irrelevant.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I mean they’re obviously all-in for right now

2024 was a huge bust and would want to be a one-off

Even so, such is the competition that they still only missed the top 4 by two games

 

[HBFlanker]

Our VFL year was more due to us having a god awful VFL squad than anything else.
Allan was excellent in the final round last year and Parker managed a handful of games which looked promising coming off no preseason as a cat B cricket convert. Both looked good tonight too.
Harrison literally got a rising star nomination last year before injury.

But yeah, no exposed form

Harvey Harrison has played 16 games for an average of 8.7 disposals.
Ed Allen has played two games in two years and you are referencing a dead rubber last year where he did actually have a solid game.
Will Parker has played 5 games for an average of 8.4 disposals

Thats not exposed AFL form.

is Will Parker the next player to be selected if Pendlebury/Sidebottom/JDG/Naicos/Jaicos get injured? Genuine question.

 

[not falcon]

To express Collingwood's 'dire situation' another way, the best 22 in 2028 (without considering any new draftees, developing players or players brought in via trade or free agency) will be:

Quaynor ~ Moore - Maynard
J. Daicos ~ McInnes ~ Houston
McCreery ~ Perryman ~ ???
Harrison ~ ??? ~ De Goey
Hill ~ McStay ~ Schultz
Cameron ~ Daicos ~ Lipinski
Crisp ~ ??? ~ ??? ~ ???

This is based on the 24 players listed in my earlier who are currently our most proven players, in addition to Harrison who has shown enough at the level.

Any to show how much lists evolve in a 4 year period, here are the players from the proposed team above who weren't on Collingwood's list in 2020 - McInnes, Houston, Perryman, Harrison, Hill, McStay, Schultz, Cameron, N. Daicos, Lipinski. 10 of the 17 players listed.

That's ****ing grim. The only player that wouldn't be worse than they are now is Daicos.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

None of the other MCG tenants are realistically as attractive to play for as Collingwood though, as they're the biggest and highest profile club of the lot, so there'll always be a draw for players to move to them over the others, especially older players with the lack of travel they do.

If that was the case, we wouldn’t see so many players cross to other MCG tenants, instead of Collingwood.

 

[bzparkes]

If that was the case, we wouldn’t see so many players cross to other MCG tenants, instead of Collingwood.

Maybe they simply don't chase them, or don't have the capital after bringing in others?

For example, Barrass was courted by both Bulldogs and Hawthorn, I don't recall any mention of Collingwood.

The ones Hawks have gone after have been instigated by Mitchell himself, supposedly.

Dan Houston was one who originally was set to go to Melbourne but ended up at Collingwood. I get that there were 'culture' concerns but I'm not aware of Collingwood being an option until late in the piece.

Could be wrong though.

 

[Fadge]

It's fortunate they won in 2023 because if they didn't what would be the incentive outside of the biggest club in Australia? I'd rather play for a successful club than the biggest club. I'd compare them to the Lakers in the NBA, they won a couple of years back so it's worked having superstars go there but if it didn't all you have is a bucketload of cash. What I'm saying is being the biggest club in the land will work up to a point. If you don't win a flag in 20 years it's irrelevant.

'Pies are lucky they're successful...'

 

[Bianconeri]

Maybe they simply don't chase them, or don't have the capital after bringing in others?

For example, Barrass was courted by both Bulldogs and Hawthorn, I don't recall any mention of Collingwood.

The ones Hawks have gone after have been instigated by Mitchell himself, supposedly.

Dan Houston was one who originally was set to go to Melbourne but ended up at Collingwood. I get that there were 'culture' concerns but I'm not aware of Collingwood being an option until late in the piece.

Could be wrong though.

Fairly sure that’s the point of the draft and salary cap.