Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[jakson68]

No, I think it’s highly unlikely any of them jump to the oldest list in the comp.

You might get one of them, but I can certainly make a bunch of arguments as to why LDU, Richards and Rowell will either stay or go elsewhere.

Well look at that, we agree.
There is no world that we get all of them and we would already know and be in discussions with the one that is open to the move.
Also, there are as many arguments to be made as to why a player would want to come to Collingwood, as what you can make to say otherwise.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Well look at that, we agree.
There is no world that we get all of them and we would already know and be in discussions with the one that is open to the move.
Also, there are as many arguments to be made as to why a player would want to come to Collingwood, as what you can make to say otherwise.

I bet there isn’t.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

How on earth would you know?

I think it’s highly unlikely that any of them jump to the oldest list in the comp.

 

[Dtennent94]

I think it’s highly unlikely that any of them jump to the oldest list in the comp.

Maybe they want to be part of history and make the list even older.

 

[timokane]

Depends on how well the young kids come on in their development.
of course we have Pendles and co retireing in say 2027.
But i think its the gell and even out of the ages is the key.
Sense a couple more cracks at the flag and then its a few lean years say 2027-2030.
No one really in prime other then DeGeoy maynard and crisp.
2027 it will be captain Nick and the king of the kids.

 

[Bianconeri]

Interesting that these guys are viewed as depth as most best 23s have Mitchell cox and Frampton at a minimum in them.

Reef McInnes has overtaken Frampton, it’s not clear who Cox and Mitchell push out when they are fit and if they do push someone out it will be someone of similar experience.

 

[Obeanie1]

No, I think it’s highly unlikely any of them jump to the oldest list in the comp.

You might get one of them, but I can certainly make a bunch of arguments as to why LDU, Richards and Rowell will either stay or go elsewhere.

Thats your opinion. And only an opinion.

And yet history shows most years Collingwood pulls a rabit out of the hat and add yet another quality player traded in or via free agency. Thats factual.

 

[Apex36]

Harvey Harrison has played 16 games for an average of 8.7 disposals.
Ed Allen has played two games in two years and you are referencing a dead rubber last year where he did actually have a solid game.
Will Parker has played 5 games for an average of 8.4 disposals

Thats not exposed AFL form.

is Will Parker the next player to be selected if Pendlebury/Sidebottom/JDG/Naicos/Jaicos get injured? Genuine question.

All I read here is that you’re good at reading stats without context.

Parker will likely be next in if there’s an injury to one of our smaller defenders.

 

[My Tilly]

I have them winning the flag this year.

Not sure what happens afterward. Perhaps they do take a tumble but I'm sure a couple flags this past five years would more than make up for that.

 

[wannabewinner]

AFL is rigged.

Pies will raid Tassie kids.

The expansion clubs are just step ladders for kids to get to the big clubs.

How many big names from expansion clubs have gone to a poor club? Other than Boyd on a crazy salary to the dogs, none come to mind.

 

[JustaBattler]

Collingwood aren't in 'serious' trouble they are in exactly the same position as they were a year ago and have improved their list with a young Perryman, added depth via a more than serviceable player in Membrey and even picked up a gun AA player in Houston - even though Houston would have preferred to play at Carlton - by his own public admission.

The longevity of the two key players Sidebottom and Pendelbury is an indisputable fact- I saw no evidence what so ever of a Sidebottom 'decline' and I watch a few Collingwood matches looking to enjoy a loss of course.

If they are in need of RFA and developed players as opposed to the lottery of the draft ( by golly even a top 3 pick can do an ACL ) - or the impossibility of a very high draft pick given the likelihood they finish at least in the top half of the H&A - then they are in no worse position ( at worst) than any other CLub looking for the same player types - I would argue that they have an advantage over most if not all Melbourne Clubs eg a 17 game at the MCG 'fixture' is an enticement to certain types of players - especially those that might benefit from being able to sleep in their own bed all the time or a fear of flying.

Of course there is a risk to the strategy however I doubt that Collingwodo supporters are buyers of the full rebuild caper and Tasmania will make that impossible anyway.

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood aren't in 'serious' trouble they are in exactly the same position as they were a year ago and have improved their list with a young Perryman, added depth via a more than serviceable player in Membrey and even picked up a gun AA player in Houston - even though Houston would have preferred to play at Carlton - by his own public admission.

The longevity of the two key players Sidebottom and Pendelbury is an indisputable fact- I saw no evidence what so ever of a Sidebottom 'decline' and I watch a few Collingwood matches looking to enjoy a loss of course.

If they are in need of RFA and developed players as opposed to the lottery of the draft ( by golly even a top 3 pick can do an ACL ) - or the impossibility of a very high draft pick given the likelihood they finish at least in the top half of the H&A - then they are in no worse position ( at worst) than any other CLub looking for the same player types - I would argue that they have an advantage over most if not all Melbourne Clubs eg a 17 game at the MCG 'fixture' is an enticement to certain types of players - especially those that might benefit from being able to sleep in their own bed all the time or a fear of flying.

Of course there is a risk to the strategy however I doubt that Collingwodo supporters are buyers of the full rebuild caper and Tasmania will make that impossible anyway.

Very sensible post from you.

Who stole your phone?

 

[JustaBattler]

Very sensible post from you.

Who stole your phone?

It isnt the banter thread Fudgee.

 

[Fadge]

I'd bookmark some of these posts from stevenhaugh, and bring them up when he's proven very wrong whether it be later this year, next year or beyond.

But somehow I don't think the account will be active at the time...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Thats your opinion. And only an opinion.

And yet history shows most years Collingwood pulls a rabit out of the hat and add yet another quality player traded in or via free agency. Thats factual.

Of course it’s my opinion. Just like yours is only an opinion.

Collingwood needs to pull more than one rabbit out of their hat when they’re the oldest list in it by a margin and have got so many of their top line players at 30+, a need to match for McGuane wherever he lands, and Tassie about to suck up draft picks. That’s factual too.

And yeah, I don’t see Rowell, LDU or Richards jumping to the oldest list in the comp, especially one that could very well be in rebuild mode at the exact moment Tassie start draining the draft.

 

[stallon]

Pies will need to bring future picks into this year to match Mcguane. They'll have almost nothing to trade for players.

Unless they sign some good FAs they'll not improve their list in this next offseason.
Getting another Perryman type signing won't improve their list either, it might just keep it where it is around the lower part of the top 8 offsetting the older players decline/retirements.

Very little natural improvement if any to come either.

I dont see LDU going to the pies, nor Richards.
Pies are nowhere close to being able to afford Rowell without losing a good player to get picks.
Worpel maybe a FA target? Maybe they bid on Allen? Not much else really out there

 

[Obeanie1]

Sounds exactly like Hawthorn circa 2016, before they had to initiate a 5-year rebuild.

Collingwood are bigger and are more attractive IMO and just get it done.

History shows that.

Hawks gutted their list and went the draft rebuild approach.

 

[Obeanie1]

Of course it’s my opinion. Just like yours is only an opinion.

Collingwood needs to pull more than one rabbit out of their hat when they’re the oldest list in it by a margin and have got so many of their top line players at 30+, a need to match for McGuane wherever he lands, and Tassie about to suck up draft picks. That’s factual too.

And yeah, I don’t see Rowell, LDU or Richards jumping to the oldest list in the comp, especially one that could very well be in rebuild mode at the exact moment Tassie start draining the draft.

Except you often start your posts with a definitive NO....this is what is the truth.

When its just your opinion.

My opinion is Hawthorn lack top end talent. Especially in the midfield. The team first method delivered great progress last season however they need to add or develop another two top shelf mids to seriously contend for a flag.

Collingwood are contending this year and just need a decent run with injuries. And with their favourable draw and low travel loads their old players keep delivering into their mid 30s.

 

[boncer34]

All those poor Olympic athletes that break world records don't seem to have any performance issues when not sleeping in their own bed.

You know that they're competing against other athletes also not sleeping in their bed right?

 

[Obeanie1]

Not convinced you can continually supplement a very old list with constant top-ups.

Geelong in 2022 is the exception to the rule because they got Dangerfield and Cameron relatively cheaply.
Collingwood paid a mid-first rounder in a strong draft for Lachie Schultz, a 27 year old battler.

Lucky thay landed two top shelf Daicos father sons and will get another in McGuane this year.

Plus another FA most likely.

They will have some serious cash to splash in years 26 to 30 to attract the next quality free agents.

 

[Bianconeri]

Not convinced you can continually supplement a very old list with constant top-ups.

Geelong in 2022 is the exception to the rule because they got Dangerfield and Cameron relatively cheaply.
Collingwood paid a mid-first rounder in a strong draft for Lachie Schultz, a 27 year old battler.

I’m pretty sure Geelong overpaid for some battlers as well during that time.

But I think that’s a point in favour of going the top up route. Geelong only needed to nail two acquisitions to stay around the top.

 

[jakson68]

There is a common theme in here about Collingwood's key players being 30+ years old and where are the replacements coming from.
Our key players over 30 that we rely on each week are
Crisp - 31
Elliot - 32
Mihocek - 32
Howe - 34
Sidebottom - 34
Pendles - 37

Now whilst getting players of the same standard to replace will not be easy, we will keep looking, both inside and outside of the club.
For example, some possible replacements we already have at the club being trained are

Elliot *32 - Harrison *21
Mihocek *32 - West *19
Sidebottom *34 - Allen *20
Howe *24 - Jiath *19
Crisp *31 - Mcinnes *22

Pendles is harder, just because he is Pendles and no matter who gets mentioned, it wont be up to scratch.
We do have a similar tall big bodied midfielder (194cm) Ned Long *22, though this may be where a FA comes in.
LDU, I am looking at you .

Whether or not these kids make it, is yet to be seen, they may not have the exposed form some on here scream out for but they are in our system.
The beauty about a good system, is when one goes down, another will be ready to slot in.

To think that a massive multi million dollar club like Collingwood, with all their resources, would not stop to think "hey don't you think our list may get old one day and perhaps we should start preparing for that" is laughable.

I guess we are just lucky that some random on Bigfooty brought this to our attention.
Maybe I will send the club an email and tell them Tassie are coming in, just in case they missed the memo.

I just hope it isn't too late

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Except you often start your posts with a definitive NO....this is what is the truth.

When it’s just your opinion.

Are you daft? The poster said I was unsure that none of Richards, LDU and Rowell would go to Collingwood, I said no, I’m not unsure.

Collingwood are contending this year and just need a decent run with injuries. And with their favourable draw and low travel loads their old players keep delivering into their mid 30s.

Which generally doesn't happen.
They’ll only need one or two of those 30+ crew to really drop off or be injured for them to fall away, like they did in 2024.

 

[FootyLad0]

I’m pretty sure Geelong overpaid for some battlers as well during that time.

But I think that’s a point in favour of going the top up route. Geelong only needed to nail two acquisitions to stay around the top.

Not sure we really overpaid for any of the older folk we brought in?
People forget that during that time in 2022 we elevated SDK to KPD and he finished right behind Naicos in Rising Star. He genuinely had an amazing rookie year. Stengle had an AA year, Close/Miers/Holmes/Zuthrie all stepped up as young fellas and became major contributors.

We were drafting a lot of young kids even while playing older blokes...look at the list now. Majoirty of the major contributors are guys like Holmes, Bailey Smith, Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle, Lawson Humphries, SDK, Ollie Henry, Zuthrie, Ollie Dempsey, Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn, SHannon Neale

Most are 25 and under in age. You can top up but you still need good youth coming through to supplement it.

 

[Bianconeri]

Not sure we really overpaid for any of the older folk we brought in?
People forget that during that time in 2022 we elevated SDK to KPD and he finished right behind Naicos in Rising Star. He genuinely had an amazing rookie year. Stengle had an AA year, Close/Miers/Holmes/Zuthrie all stepped up as young fellas and became major contributors.

We were drafting a lot of young kids even while playing older blokes...look at the list now. Majoirty of the major contributors are guys like Holmes, Bailey Smith, Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle, Lawson Humphries, SDK, Ollie Henry, Zuthrie, Ollie Dempsey, Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn, SHannon Neale

Most are 25 and under in age. You can top up but you still need good youth coming through to supplement it.

Josh Caddy and Lachie Henderson were overpays. I must admit I thought there were more. But so far we’re only half ways on that target.

The fact you mention you started developing players 11 years after your premiership in 2011 also backs up my point.