Collingwood are anything but shoe-ins, are they in trouble?

[Strapping Young Lad]

Maybe they simply don't chase them, or don't have the capital after bringing in others?

For example, Barrass was courted by both Bulldogs and Hawthorn, I don't recall any mention of Collingwood.

The ones Hawks have gone after have been instigated by Mitchell himself, supposedly.

Dan Houston was one who originally was set to go to Melbourne but ended up at Collingwood. I get that there were 'culture' concerns but I'm not aware of Collingwood being an option until late in the piece.

Could be wrong though.

 

[bzparkes]

View attachment 2236207

Fair enough. I was unaware of Collingwood's interest.

Always seemed Hawks bound due to Mitchell's relationship with him though, as well as Hickmott.

 

[Bianconeri]

Harvey Harrison has played 16 games for an average of 8.7 disposals.
Ed Allen has played two games in two years and you are referencing a dead rubber last year where he did actually have a solid game.
Will Parker has played 5 games for an average of 8.4 disposals

Thats not exposed AFL form.

is Will Parker the next player to be selected if Pendlebury/Sidebottom/JDG/Naicos/Jaicos get injured? Genuine question.

Pretty sure there averages are skewed because of their sub appearances.

But what do you count as exposed form and how many players outside the best 22 are expected to have it?

On Parker being the next guy in, it depends on who you consider in our best 22 atm which isn’t exactly clear atm. We’ll get a better picture when De Goey, Mitchell and Cox are available. But he’s down the cue given he doesn’t look like being selected despite De Goey likely unavailability for OR and Houston’s suspension.

 

[HBFlanker]

Pretty sure there averages are skewed because of their sub appearances.

But what do you count as exposed form and how many players outside the best 22 are expected to have it?

On Parker being the next guy in, it depends on who you consider in our best 22 atm which isn’t exactly clear atm. We’ll get a better picture when De Goey, Mitchell and Cox are available. But he’s down the cue given he doesn’t look like being selected despite De Goey likely unavailability for OR and Houston’s suspension.

Most other clubs who are challenging have stronger depth than kids who have barely played.

Brisbane for example have the following outside their best 22:

Conor Mckenna - 123 AFL Games
Darcy Fort - 36 AFL Games
Sam Day - 155 AFL Games
Tom Doedee - 82 AFL Games
Deven Robertson - 43 AFL Games
Lincoln Mccarthy -155 AFL Games

These blokes come in and you know what you are going to get. Its not a kid who has played 5 games.

Geelong

Tanner Bruhn - 66 games
Jack Martin - 151 games
Jed Bews - 171 games
Mark O;'connor - 122 games

Collingwood just dont have this depth. Again, i love what they have done. Its a proper crack at it, but the next layer down is just kids, and it wont stack up.

 

[Obeanie1]

If that was the case, we wouldn’t see so many players cross to other MCG tenants, instead of Collingwood.

Has Collingwood struggled to attract talent?

No. Every year they keep adding to and building their list with quality mature talent.

And sure other clubs also trade in players. Collingwood can't take all of them obviously. That's a weird way of looking at it, other players cross to MCG tenants too.

Just compare the quality and numbers. That tells the true story on how the Pies continue building and 8mproving their squad. And they have been open about it stating the draft is too compromised.

It's working for them. It wouldn't work for most other teams.

 

[The Magnificent Seven]

You’ve got 1 top 10 pick on your list under the age of 18, Daicos. He’s a star, but you need a bunch of young stars to help him going forward...

We picked up Charlie West in 2024 draft at pick 50. He hasn't yet played a game, but if you've seen him play you'd be pretty excited at his prospects. He's 18, a bit like Johnno Brown in that he can clunk marks and convert, but he's also mobile.

Of course you'd have a first rounder in a heartbeat, but it doesn't necessarily guarantee a great long-term player. See Jaidyn Stephenson, Nathan Freeman, Matthew Scharenberg.

One thing Collingwood has been great at over the years is turning picks from 40+ into Premiership players. And still managing to play finals without our first-round draft picks.

 

[jakson68]

Fair enough. I was unaware of Collingwood's interest.

Always seemed Hawks bound due to Mitchell's relationship with him though, as well as Hickmott.

Don't take it to heart mate.
To be fair, Collingwood may have also been unaware of their interest.

Collingwood get mentioned in most trade scenarios.
Whether it is to get clicks, sell papers, or smart player managers, it is just the way it is.

As supporters, we usually wait to hear from the club itself on most things.
We are usually competitive most seasons, so I will back them in with their plans.

 

[Bianconeri]

Most other clubs who are challenging have stronger depth than kids who have barely played.

This discussion wasn’t on depth though. It was about promising youngsters. You’re shifting the goal post here.

Conor Mckenna - 123 AFL Games
Darcy Fort - 36 AFL Games
Sam Day - 155 AFL Games
Tom Doedee - 82 AFL Games
Deven Robertson - 43 AFL Games
Lincoln Mccarthy -155 AFL Games

These blokes come in and you know what you are going to get. Its not a kid who has played 5 games.

Geelong

Tanner Bruhn - 66 games
Jack Martin - 151 games
Jed Bews - 171 games
Mark O;'connor - 122 games

Collingwood just dont have this depth. Again, i love what they have done. Its a proper crack at it, but the next layer down is just kids, and it wont stack up.

Oleg Markov - 86
Tom Mitchell - 203
Mason Cox - 129
Billy Frampton - 58
Ash Johnson - 27

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Has Collingwood struggled to attract talent?

No. Every year they keep adding to and building their list with quality mature talent.

And guess what, the list is now the oldest in it, and they’ll have more players going out of their best 22 in the next 2-3 years than they can likely attract and replace them with, because of the limitations in trading picks out for players( plus selecting McGuane) and potential candidates choosing to go elsewhere.

They could still attract FA’s, of course, but they’re soon going to be at a point where they simply have nail a few in order to stay up.

 

[HBFlanker]

This discussion wasn’t on depth though. It was about promising youngsters. You’re shifting the goal post here.


Oleg Markov - 86
Tom Mitchell - 203
Mason Cox - 129
Billy Frampton - 58
Ash Johnson - 27

Interesting that these guys are viewed as depth as most best 23s have Mitchell cox and Frampton at a minimum in them.

 

[Dtennent94]

And guess what, the list is now the oldest in it, and they’ll have more players going out of their best 22 in the next 2-3 years than they can likely attract and replace them with, because of the limitations in trading picks out for players( plus selecting McGuane) and potential candidates choosing to go elsewhere.

They could still attract FA’s, of course, but they’re soon going to be at a point where they simply have nail a few in order to stay up.

End of year Pies will take their pick of Rowell, LDU or Ed Richards. Whoever wants to play for the least coin.

We’ll also bring in 2x R1 talents for next year in McGuane and Condon and get Harvey Harrison back from injury to either play finals this year or take a best 22 spot to begin next year.

 

[Dtennent94]

Interesting that these guys are viewed as depth as most best 23s have Mitchell cox and Frampton at a minimum in them.

If Cox and Mitchell are in our 23, then Membrey and Hoskin-Elliott or Lipinski or Schultz or someone are out.

Plenty of experience between those to be called depth.

 

[doppleganger]

Collingwood fans can never whinge about the draw. NEVER.

Agree, compared to other Melbourne based clubs we have it the best.

Adelaide fans should also never ever whinge about travel, as they travel less than some Melbourne based clubs.

 

[Spiral_Out]

If Cox and Mitchell are in our 23, then Membrey and Hoskin-Elliott or Lipinski or Schultz or someone are out.

Plenty of experience between those to be called depth.

It's unreal how some people think that Schultz is fringe and not a walk in starting 22 player, on any team not just Collingwood.

He is in the top 3 players in the league for his position, it's like, 'We have a ruckman that is consistently top 3 in the entire AFL, we choose to not play a ruckman at all and put in a player that doesn't play that position ever instead'.

There will always be a player that will be injured enough that this won't be an issue, only for the first 3 rounds maybe while everyone is fresh. We also have a plethora of older guys that can rotate, 3 weeks on 1 week off, but again, I don't think this will happen when the season gets rolling because someone will always be injured, that's AFL.

Players that are 25-29 will not be rested and especially someone like Schultz.

Elliott (32) will be rested if there are no injuries and there's a crunch.

This is all silly talk anyway, it's more likely we will be talking about how Collingwood don't have enough depth for X position after round 5.

 

[Dtennent94]

It's unreal how some people think that Schultz is fringe and not a walk in starting 22 player, on any team not just Collingwood.

He is in the top 3 players in the league for his position, it's like, 'We have a ruckman that is consistently top 3 in the entire AFL, we choose to not play a ruckman at all and put in a player that doesn't play that position ever instead'.

There will always be a player that will be injured enough that this won't be an issue, only for the first 3 rounds maybe while everyone is fresh. We also have a plethora of older guys that can rotate, 3 weeks on 1 week off, but again, I don't think this will happen when the season gets rolling because someone will always be injured, that's AFL.

Players that are 25-29 will not be rested and especially someone like Schultz.

Elliott (32) will be rested if there are no injuries and there's a crunch.

This is all silly talk anyway, it's more likely we will be talking about how Collingwood don't have enough depth for X position after round 5.

I agree and I defend Schultz too. Love him.

If all are fit, who sits out though? I listed WHE and Lipinski as some closer to the fringe (other than Membrey who would presumably have been dropped for Cox if Cox has to come in).

My comment looks silly after Lipinski’s game last night obviously. But who?

 

[Fadge]

I agree and I defend Schultz too. Love him.

If all are fit, who sits out though? I listed WHE and Lipinski as some closer to the fringe (other than Membrey who would presumably have been dropped for Cox if Cox has to come in).

My comment looks silly after Lipinski’s game last night obviously. But who?

Shhhhh.

We just have to realise we have no depth...

 

[ShadowCat]

To express Collingwood's 'dire situation' another way, the best 22 in 2028 (without considering any new draftees, developing players or players brought in via trade or free agency) will be:

Quaynor ~ Moore - Maynard
J. Daicos ~ McInnes ~ Houston
McCreery ~ Perryman ~ ???
Harrison ~ ??? ~ De Goey
Hill ~ McStay ~ Schultz
Cameron ~ Daicos ~ Lipinski
Crisp ~ ??? ~ ??? ~ ???

This is based on the 24 players listed in my earlier who are currently our most proven players, in addition to Harrison who has shown enough at the level.

Any to show how much lists evolve in a 4 year period, here are the players from the proposed team above who weren't on Collingwood's list in 2020 - McInnes, Houston, Perryman, Harrison, Hill, McStay, Schultz, Cameron, N. Daicos, Lipinski. 10 of the 17 players listed.

It's interesting, because it could go in all different ways, but this would be ours, based on our current list - no players over 27, and minimum of 5 AFL games (so they'll be 30 in 2028 and still a bit of their career to go, and they're not just a flash in the pan/developing player):

B: Mullin, SDK, Bowes
HB: Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, L. Humphries
C: Dempsey, Bruhn, Knevitt
FO: Conway, Holmes, B. Smith
HF: Miers, O. Henry, Mannagh
F: Stengle, S. Neale, Close
INT: Clark, O'Connor, ???, ???, ???


Jez, Stewart and Blics will likely play until 2028, but I'm not including them for the sake of this exercise. Likewise T. Atkins, J. Martin and Kolodjashnij. C. Guthrie, Duncan, Bews and Stanley likely retire this year. C. O'Sullivan will be a 10 year player for us and is a high draft pick, but not included due to not meeting games criteria.

Players in our side who weren't there in 2020:

Mullin, Bowes, Dempsey, L. Humphries, Stengle, Holmes, O. Henry, Conway, B. Smith, S. Neale, Knevitt, Bruhn (plus J. Cameron who's not included due to not being in the above side) 12 players out of 20.

If we amended your side on the basis of the above criteria, your side would look more like this:


Quaynor ~ ??? ~ ???
J. Daicos ~ McInnes ~ Houston
McCreery ~ Perryman ~ ???
Harrison ~ ??? ~ De Goey
Hill ~ ??? ~ Schultz
??? ~ Daicos ~ Lipinski
??? ~ ??? ~ ??? ~ ??? ~ ???

Honestly, it doesn't really matter, but you can see on that criteria alone, just how much older your list is getting than other clubs. As we've demonstrated, there are a raft of different ways to bridge that gap.

Gotta be careful completely ignoring the draft though, as topping up continuously only works when you have a solid base to build off. If it goes too far in the other direction, you'll have no kids and a lot of 30+ year olds. We narrowly missed out on that by changing paths in 2022, but prior to that, we were on the precipice of staring down a long rebuild.

For the now though, you guys are fine. Will just be interesting to see what happens once Tassie comes in and we're all screwed trying to go through the draft.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

End of year Pies will take their pick of Rowell, LDU or Ed Richards. Whoever wants to play for the least coin.

I’m not sure any of them will join Collingwood.

We’ll also bring in 2x R1 talents for next year in McGuane and Condon and get Harvey Harrison back from injury to either play finals this year or take a best 22 spot to begin next year.

Lots of clubs will be doing similar without so many of their best 22 so close to falling off the perch.

 

[Spiral_Out]

I agree and I defend Schultz too. Love him.

If all are fit, who sits out though? I listed WHE and Lipinski as some closer to the fringe (other than Membrey who would presumably have been dropped for Cox if Cox has to come in).

My comment looks silly after Lipinski’s game last night obviously. But who?

It will be players that aren't playing a key position that are aged 30+

If there's a crunch and everyone is fit they will rotate Pendlebury, Sidebottom, WHE and Mitchell for the mids.

And if there's an issue with our key backs, Frampton imo would replace Howe/Moore.

The crunch is on the key forwards and ruck, Cox and Membrey, Cox gives us more of an edge in clearances which was an issue last night vs a pretty weak team. Membrey makes us more nimble forward, which on a slippery/windy day would be the way to go.

On a nice sunny day at the G, Cox is ahead of Membrey all day.

Players that are multi facet plug in and fix players such as WHE and Markov, should be starting 22 but it's probably smarter to have them be the 23rd. Let's not forget McInnes either, with enough injuries he would be a solid 23rd man, can player forward and back.

But this is all hypothetical, it won't come to it as someone will always be injured.

 

[Dtennent94]

It will be players that aren't playing a key position that are aged 30+

If there's a crunch and everyone is fit they will rotate Pendlebury, Sidebottom, WHE and Mitchell for the mids.

And if there's an issue with our key backs, Frampton imo would replace Howe/Moore.

The crunch is on the key forwards and ruck, Cox and Membrey, Cox gives us more of an edge in clearances which was an issue last night vs a pretty weak team. Membrey makes us more nimble forward, which on a slippery/windy day would be the way to go.

On a nice sunny day at the G, Cox is ahead of Membrey all day.

Players that are multi facet plug in and fix players such as WHE and Markov, should be starting 22 but it's probably smarter to have them be the 23rd. Let's not forget McInnes either, with enough injuries he would be a solid 23rd man, can player forward and back.

But this is all hypothetical, it won't come to it as someone will always be injured.

It’s mostly hypothetical but relevant for comparison of list depth when people are claiming we have none because the players outside of our best 23 actually should be inside it.

 

[jakson68]

I’m not sure any of them will join Collingwood.


Lots of clubs will be doing similar without so many of their best 22 so close to falling off the perch.

Yes but you are just as unsure that none of them will.
At the end of the day, you (like me) have little to no clue what is happening at Collingwood behind closed doors with player managers.
You are entitled to your guesswork opinion but like 99% of the users on Bigfooty, only a fool would take that opinion as gospel.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yes but you are just as unsure that none of them will.
At the end of the day, you (like me) have little to no clue what is happening at Collingwood behind closed doors with player managers.
You are entitled to your guesswork opinion but like 99% of the users on Bigfooty, only a fool would take that opinion as gospel.

No, I think it’s highly unlikely any of them jump to the oldest list in the comp.

You might get one of them, but I can certainly make a bunch of arguments as to why LDU, Richards and Rowell will either stay or go elsewhere.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Was reading the article for this on afl.com.au - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1271407/ready-for-take-off-your-clubs-breakout-star-for-2025

When flicking through I noticed that every club had some young gun listed to break out this year, a mix 1st of 4th year players.

Then I got to Collingwood and they listed -checks notes- Bobby Hill as the player to breakout this year, at the ripe old age of 25, with a Norm Smith already to his name.

Now I think Bobby's a fantastic player and is fun to watch, but the other 'notable' breakout players were Beau McCreery, Ed Allen and Reef McInnes.

Now obviously they have Naicos, who just turned 22, and broke out in his first year but listing a 25yo as their main breakout player would definitely indicate that Collingwood are in real trouble in the next year or 2.

Of course, we're all aware that they've certainly gone all in with a very old list for a final shot at a flag but if they fail, they will likely be in bottom table purgatory for most of the next decade, due to having next to no young talent coming through.

Having said that, for Pies fans, is this a fair assumption, or are there simply unknown kids coming through that nobody knows about that you expect to develop into goo AFL players?

Aside from Collingwood supporters, who do you think will break out for your club, not named on this list?

Im sorry but how is this news??

 

[Fadge]

No, I think it’s highly unlikely any of them jump to the oldest list in the comp.

You might get one of them, but I can certainly make a bunch of arguments as to why LDU, Richards and Rowell will either stay or go elsewhere.

How on earth would you know?

 

[Cyclops]

Im sorry but how is this news??

Indeed, "journo unfamiliar with afl clubs list" would be a more honest headline.