2025 Ladder Predictions

[Purple Suit]

I've seen multiples of people suggest it'll happen just because it's been happening.

Other than that i agree the possibility is there especially in the most even of seasons we've seen recently. But it ain't going to happen just because it's happened the last 10 years. That's not what increases the odds of it occurring.

That's how it works. It's been happening consistently so therefore it is highly likely to happen again. It doesn't mean it will 100% happen, but that year will be an outlier till factors change enough and the trend stops. Who knows, maybe a few years after Tassie enters it'll stop happening due to compromised drafts affecting teams ability to shoot up the ladder but I doubt it. Too many variables and humans are involved so it appears to be very hard to stop the drive from lower teams and the teams that are up find it hard to maintain the motivation to stay there.

 

[PCORF]

I ran a ladder predictor and this is what I got.

1. Geelong
2. Port
3. Sydney
4. Fremantle
5. Hawthorn
6. Collingwood
7. Brisbane
8. Carlton

9. GWS
10. St Kilda
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Adelaide
13. Gold Coast
14. Melbourne
15. West Coast
16. Richmond
17. Essendon
18. North

 

[Chief Hopper]

I ran a ladder predictor and this is what I got.

Richmond more wins than Essendon and North? Did you see tigers play against Collingwood? They will be lucky to win 3 games this year.

 

[BigVic]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Western Bulldogs	17	6	0	134.4%
2.	Hawthorn	16	7	0	126.0%
3.	Geelong	15	8	0	127.6%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	8	0	125.0%
5.	Port Adelaide	14	9	0	111.9%
6.	Carlton	13	10	0	111.5%
7.	GWS	13	10	0	110.0%
8.	Sydney	13	10	0	108.1%
9.	Collingwood	13	10	0	106.3%
10.	Adelaide	13	10	0	99.9%
11.	Fremantle	12	11	0	108.9%
12.	Melbourne	11	12	0	103.9%
13.	St Kilda	11	12	0	97.6%
14.	Gold Coast	11	12	0	95.9%
15.	Essendon	9	14	0	86.3%
16.	West Coast	6	17	0	65.8%
17.	Richmond	5	18	0	65.8%
18.	North Melbourne	0	23	0	59.3%

QF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Hawthorn v GEELONG
EF1: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY
EF2: Carlton v GWS

SF1: Brisbane Lions v SYDNEY
SF2: HAWTHORN v GWS

PF1: Western Bulldogs v HAWTHORN
PF2: GEELONG v Sydney

GF: HAWTHORN v Geelong

Squiggle auto-pick got me this. North not winning a game and Richmond winning 5 games

 

[Swanks McSwankserton]

Port Adelaide
Sydney
Fremantle
GWS
Carlton
Melbourne
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Geelong
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne
West Coast
St Kilda
Essendon
Richmond

 

[MCG-Unit]

Geelong
GWS
Collingwood
Brisbane
Fremantle
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn

Essendon
Carlton
Melbourne
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne
West Coast
Richmond

What, Saints relegated already

 

[Pistol Night]

What, Saints relegated already

No Membrey, No St Kilda

 

[tiger_tough]

1. Brisbane
2. Fremantle
3. GWS
4. Hawthorn
5. Sydney
6. Carlton
7. Collingwood
8. Gold Coast
9. Bulldogs
10. Adelaide
11. Geelong
12. Port Adelaide
13. St Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. North Melbourne
16. Essendon
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

Revised

1. Fremantle
2. GWS
3. Brisbane
4. Collingwood
5. Hawthorn
6.Geelong
7. Carlton
8. Gold Coast
9. Sydney
10. Bulldogs
11. Adelaide
12. Melbourne
13. Port Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. North Melbourne
16.St Kilda
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

 

[rapidfire7]

Like so many others, I did my initial one months ago. But, after all the pre-season matches, this is how I see things now:

2025 LADDER PREDICTION final

1. GIANTS
2. CATS
3. LIONS
4. BLUES
5. HAWKS
6. POWER
7. MAGPIES
8. CROWS
---------------------------
9. BOMBERS
10. SWANS
11. DOCKERS
12. BULLDOGS
13. SUNS
14. DEMONS
15. EAGLES
16. SAINTS
17. KANGAROOS
18. TIGERS

In short, I'm not buying into the Docker hype.

 

[Joose]

I am not so sure about all the love for Freo.

A talented list - yes- but still one good coach short of being a real challenger.

 

[Arr0w]

I am not so sure about all the love for Freo.

A talented list - yes- but still one good coach short of being a real challenger.

If he releases the shackles more, you'll have a decent rise, just not sure his committed to it

 

[Angus Young]

In no order

Blues
Sydney
Geelong
GWS
Pies
Lions
Freo
Adelaide

Port
Dogs
Gold coast
Hawks

All of them will be close .

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Haven't you made this type of claim multiple times already?

I think most Hawks supporters would be a little disappointed but not the least bit discouraged if we missed finals this year.

I think most Hawks supporters would be pretty okay backing up a finals appearance with another finals appearance.

With natural improvement from the young players and the additions of Barrass and Battle, I think most Hawks supporters are daring to dream, and rightfully so, that we can go at least one better in 2025. One better is literally a preliminary final appearance.

Let's just wait and see how it unfolds.

Yeah, this guy needs therapy when it comes to Hawthorn. He's so obsessed and bitter it's always hilarious reading.They have lived rent free in his head for the better part of a decade

 

[Joao]

If he releases the shackles more, you'll have a decent rise, just not sure his committed to it

He doesn't even need to do that, just needs to teach the boys how to win a close game. The only one we won last year we really shouldn't have and required Logan to somehow shoot for goal in the wrong direction.

 

[GreyCrow]

Brisbane
Collingwood
Sydney
GWS
Geelong
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn

Bulldogs
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Carlton
Melbourne
St Kilda
Essendon
West Coast
North Melbourne
Richmond

 

[imagifED]

1) GWS
2) Fremantle
3) Brisbane
4) Geelong
5) Carlton
6) Adelaide
7) Collingwood
8) Hawthorn
9) Gold Coast
10) Melbourne
11) Sydney
12) Essendon
13) St Kilda
14) North Melbourne
15) Port Adelaide
16) Western Bulldogs
17) West Coast
18) Richmond

Predicted we would crash and burn last year when most thought we would play finals even make top 4.
I cannot see how Nicks does not make finals for the first time this year with everything served on a silver platter.

 

[imagifED]

My predicted ladder last season

1) GWS
2) Sydney
3) Port Adelaide
4) Collingwood
5) Carlton
6) Geelong
7) Essendon
8) Brisbane
9) Adelaide
10) Gold Coast
11) Melbourne
12) St Kilda
13) Fremantle
14) Western Bulldogs
15) Hawthorn
16) Richmond
17) North Melbourne
18) West Coast

So so hard where I had Melbourne 2nd then slid them to 11th. Imagine the top 14 have making finals as a realistic pass mark so 6 teams will have a failed season.

 

[Mr Meow]

Brisbane
Collingwood
Carlton
Geelong
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Sydney
GWS

Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Essendon
North Melbourne
West Coast
St Kilda
Richmond

 

[Mr Meow]

bradfisher14 what did I do wrong?

 

[bradfisher14]

bradfisher14 what did I do wrong?

Nothing wrong with it at all mate. I’m just imagining the carnage on the streets of Melbourne ahead of the second qualifying final

 

[Swanks McSwankserton]

That's how it works. It's been happening consistently so therefore it is highly likely to happen again. It doesn't mean it will 100% happen, but that year will be an outlier till factors change enough and the trend stops. Who knows, maybe a few years after Tassie enters it'll stop happening due to compromised drafts affecting teams ability to shoot up the ladder but I doubt it. Too many variables and humans are involved so it appears to be very hard to stop the drive from lower teams and the teams that are up find it hard to maintain the motivation to stay there.

Totally agree. Funnily enough I remember looking into this a few years ago, and though the 6 years of 2009-2014 were a bit more stagnant, interestingy a team coming in from outside the 8 has been the norm for nearly 40 years now.

To throw out a few more ideas on why it happens, perhaps clubs put a lot of stock in the difference between playing and missing out on finals; maybe 5th-8th sides generally consider themselves 'nearly there' and don't make the big off-field changes they actually need to make to put themselves in proper contention, like coaching / game plan changes. Fixturing double ups as well (is supposed to) pit 1st-6th against each other with the express idea of them knocking each other out of the running for a repeat spot, whereas 7th and down can land a moderate to helpful fixture for the next year. I also don't think it coinicidence that the start in this trend syncs up with the same time the comp expanded past 12 teams and introduced its equality measures.

1944 -> 1945 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1945 -> 1946 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1946 -> 1947 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1947 -> 1948 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1948 -> 1949 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1949 -> 1950 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1950 -> 1951 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1951 -> 1952 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1952 -> 1953 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1953 -> 1954 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1954 -> 1955 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1955 -> 1956 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1956 -> 1957 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1957 -> 1958 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1958 -> 1959 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1959 -> 1960 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1960 -> 1961 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1961 -> 1962 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1962 -> 1963 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

1963 -> 1964 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1964 -> 1965 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1965 -> 1966 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1966 -> 1967 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1967 -> 1968 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1968 -> 1969 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1969 -> 1970 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1970 -> 1971 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1971 -> 1972 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1972 -> 1973 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1973 -> 1974 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1974 -> 1975 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1975 -> 1976 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1976 -> 1977 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1977 -> 1978 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1978 -> 1979 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1979 -> 1980 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1980 -> 1981 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1981 -> 1982 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1982 -> 1983 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1983 -> 1984 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1984 -> 1985 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

1985 -> 1986 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1986 -> 1987 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1987 -> 1988 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1988 -> 1989 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1989 -> 1990 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1990 -> 1991 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1991 -> 1992 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1992 -> 1993 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1993 -> 1994 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1994 -> 1995 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1995 -> 1996 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1996 -> 1997 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 3 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1997 -> 1998 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1998 -> 1999 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1999 -> 2000 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2000 -> 2001 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2001 -> 2002 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2002 -> 2003 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2003 -> 2004 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2004 -> 2005 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2005 -> 2006 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2006 -> 2007 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 3 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2007 -> 2008 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2008 -> 2009 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2009 -> 2010 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2010 -> 2011 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2011 -> 2012 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2012 -> 2013 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2013 -> 2014 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2014 -> 2015 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2015 -> 2016 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2016 -> 2017 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2017 -> 2018 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2018 -> 2019 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2019 -> 2020 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2020 -> 2021 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2021 -> 2022 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2022 -> 2023 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2023 -> 2024 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

On the double-ups, that is only a recent feature. For much of that time teams played each other twice, and the system of lower finishing teams getting theoretically easier draws in the double-ups is what .... ten years old?

 

[Bipolar Bear]

Probably the most difficult ladder I have done in a long time. Could see anyone in the league top 8ing apart from Richmond, who are doing a hard rebuild (correctly so before TAS).

I don't understand why everyone is counting Melbourne out, they've got so many stars on that team. Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, Salem, Cozzy, that's as good a top 5 as any team has, if not better and their depth is good too. Calling it now, they'll make the premiership this year. Would be very Essendon to have the first rounder of a team that finishes in the Grand final too.

Sydney vs. Melbourne grand final, with a Sydney win.
Nick Daicos Brownlow
Jeremy Cameron Coleman

1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Brisbane
5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Port Adelaide
8. Geelong
-----------------------
9. Greater Western Sydney
10. Carlton
11. Hawthorn
12. Footscray
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

 

[Purple Suit]

Probably the most difficult ladder I have done in a long time. Could see anyone in the league top 8ing apart from Richmond, who are doing a hard rebuild (correctly so before TAS).

I don't understand why everyone is counting Melbourne out, they've got so many stars on that team. Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, Salem, Cozzy, that's as good a top 5 as any team has, if not better and their depth is good too. Calling it now, they'll make the premiership this year. Would be very Essendon to have the first rounder of a team that finishes in the Grand final too.

Sydney vs. Melbourne grand final, with a Sydney win.
Nick Daicos Brownlow
Jeremy Cameron Coleman

1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Brisbane
5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Port Adelaide
8. Geelong
-----------------------
9. Greater Western Sydney
10. Carlton
11. Hawthorn
12. Footscray
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

Oliver hasn’t been decent for a few years now due to his issues. Petracca & Salem coming off serious injuries, Maxy getting older, Kossi wants out. They all have question marks on them.

 

[Bipolar Bear]

Oliver hasn’t been decent for a few years now due to his issues. Petracca & Salem coming off serious injuries, Maxy getting older, Kossi wants out. They all have question marks on them.

I refuse to change my ladder prediction despite your water tight evidence. I am not a man of science, I am a taurus, leo moon.