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2025 Ladder Predictions

Purple Suit said:
That's how it works. It's been happening consistently so therefore it is highly likely to happen again. It doesn't mean it will 100% happen, but that year will be an outlier till factors change enough and the trend stops. Who knows, maybe a few years after Tassie enters it'll stop happening due to compromised drafts affecting teams ability to shoot up the ladder but I doubt it. Too many variables and humans are involved so it appears to be very hard to stop the drive from lower teams and the teams that are up find it hard to maintain the motivation to stay there.
Click to expand...
Totally agree. Funnily enough I remember looking into this a few years ago, and though the 6 years of 2009-2014 were a bit more stagnant, interestingy a team coming in from outside the 8 has been the norm for nearly 40 years now.

To throw out a few more ideas on why it happens, perhaps clubs put a lot of stock in the difference between playing and missing out on finals; maybe 5th-8th sides generally consider themselves 'nearly there' and don't make the big off-field changes they actually need to make to put themselves in proper contention, like coaching / game plan changes. Fixturing double ups as well (is supposed to) pit 1st-6th against each other with the express idea of them knocking each other out of the running for a repeat spot, whereas 7th and down can land a moderate to helpful fixture for the next year. I also don't think it coinicidence that the start in this trend syncs up with the same time the comp expanded past 12 teams and introduced its equality measures.

1944 -> 1945 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1945 -> 1946 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1946 -> 1947 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1947 -> 1948 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1948 -> 1949 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1949 -> 1950 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1950 -> 1951 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1951 -> 1952 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1952 -> 1953 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1953 -> 1954 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1954 -> 1955 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1955 -> 1956 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1956 -> 1957 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1957 -> 1958 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1958 -> 1959 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1959 -> 1960 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1960 -> 1961 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1961 -> 1962 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1962 -> 1963 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

1963 -> 1964 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1964 -> 1965 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1965 -> 1966 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1966 -> 1967 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1967 -> 1968 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1968 -> 1969 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1969 -> 1970 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1970 -> 1971 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1971 -> 1972 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1972 -> 1973 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1973 -> 1974 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1974 -> 1975 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1975 -> 1976 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1976 -> 1977 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1977 -> 1978 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1978 -> 1979 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1979 -> 1980 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1980 -> 1981 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1981 -> 1982 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1982 -> 1983 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1983 -> 1984 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1984 -> 1985 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4

1985 -> 1986 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1986 -> 1987 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1987 -> 1988 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1988 -> 1989 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1989 -> 1990 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1990 -> 1991 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1991 -> 1992 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1992 -> 1993 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1993 -> 1994 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1994 -> 1995 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1995 -> 1996 3 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1996 -> 1997 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 3 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1997 -> 1998 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1998 -> 1999 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
1999 -> 2000 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2000 -> 2001 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2001 -> 2002 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2002 -> 2003 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2003 -> 2004 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2004 -> 2005 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2005 -> 2006 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2006 -> 2007 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 3 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2007 -> 2008 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2008 -> 2009 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2009 -> 2010 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2010 -> 2011 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2011 -> 2012 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2012 -> 2013 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2013 -> 2014 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 0 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2014 -> 2015 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2015 -> 2016 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2016 -> 2017 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2017 -> 2018 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 2 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2018 -> 2019 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2019 -> 2020 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2020 -> 2021 0 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2021 -> 2022 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2022 -> 2023 1 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
2023 -> 2024 2 team(s) from 5th-8th moved into top 4, 1 team(s) from outside the top 8 got into the top 4
 
Probably the most difficult ladder I have done in a long time. Could see anyone in the league top 8ing apart from Richmond, who are doing a hard rebuild (correctly so before TAS).

I don't understand why everyone is counting Melbourne out, they've got so many stars on that team. Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, Salem, Cozzy, that's as good a top 5 as any team has, if not better and their depth is good too. Calling it now, they'll make the premiership this year. Would be very Essendon to have the first rounder of a team that finishes in the Grand final too.

Sydney vs. Melbourne grand final, with a Sydney win.
Nick Daicos Brownlow
Jeremy Cameron Coleman

1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Brisbane
5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Port Adelaide
8. Geelong
-----------------------
9. Greater Western Sydney
10. Carlton
11. Hawthorn
12. Footscray
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. West Coast
18. Richmond
 
The Devils Advocate said:
Probably the most difficult ladder I have done in a long time. Could see anyone in the league top 8ing apart from Richmond, who are doing a hard rebuild (correctly so before TAS).

I don't understand why everyone is counting Melbourne out, they've got so many stars on that team. Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, Salem, Cozzy, that's as good a top 5 as any team has, if not better and their depth is good too. Calling it now, they'll make the premiership this year. Would be very Essendon to have the first rounder of a team that finishes in the Grand final too.

Sydney vs. Melbourne grand final, with a Sydney win.
Nick Daicos Brownlow
Jeremy Cameron Coleman

1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Brisbane
5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Port Adelaide
8. Geelong
-----------------------
9. Greater Western Sydney
10. Carlton
11. Hawthorn
12. Footscray
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. St. Kilda
17. West Coast
18. Richmond
Click to expand...
Oliver hasn’t been decent for a few years now due to his issues. Petracca & Salem coming off serious injuries, Maxy getting older, Kossi wants out. They all have question marks on them.
 

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Purple Suit said:
Oliver hasn’t been decent for a few years now due to his issues. Petracca & Salem coming off serious injuries, Maxy getting older, Kossi wants out. They all have question marks on them.
Click to expand...
I refuse to change my ladder prediction despite your water tight evidence. I am not a man of science, I am a taurus, leo moon.
 
Howard Littlejohn said:
On the double-ups, that is only a recent feature. For much of that time teams played each other twice, and the system of lower finishing teams getting theoretically easier draws in the double-ups is what .... ten years old?
Click to expand...
We really shouldn’t see any top 4 teams get a fixture where they get double ups against a bottom 4 team twice the following year…. Yet we do.
 
Had a crack off gut feeling rather than trying to predict every game.

1. Brisbane
2. Geelong
3. Carlton
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Hawthorn
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast
-------------------
9. GWS
10. Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Port Adelaide
13. Footscray
14. Essendon
15. St. Kilda
16. West Coast
17. North Melbourne
18. Richmond
 
Better get this in
1. Brisbane (some good ins from knee injuries plus another Ashcroft)
2. Freo
3. Collingwood (might be their last shot, tipping they’ll recover from 2024’s hangover)
4. Carlton
5. GWS
6. Geelong (never seem to go away)
7. Port Adelaide (ditto)
8. Sydney (the post GF thrashing slide, but will be back contending in 2026)
9. Hawthorn (no logic, just think they’ll take one step back then two forward in 2026)
10. Adelaide (the Nicks handbrake will probably stop finals)
11. Gold Coast (not convinced yet)
12. Melbourne (hard to get a read on, could easily shake their 2024 blues and make the finals)
13. Western Bulldogs (something ain’t right and a bad injury list already)
14. Essendon
15. St Kilda
16. North Melbourne (should improve a bit more)
17. West Coast
18. Richmond


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Strangely blues aren’t getting any love in the media in terms of finishing in the top 8. I think they’ll do better than 2023 and 24 .Injuries cooked us last year . Our barometer is TDK . If he stays upright we will be a hard side to put away. Annoyingly I think the crows have jerked around long enough and will feature in top 8. As for freo love I’m not feeling it . The ladder Same as last year with blues 4th and crows 6-8 .
 
Brighton_Diggins said:
Strangely blues aren’t getting any love in the media in terms of finishing in the top 8. I think they’ll do better than 2023 and 24 .Injuries cooked us last year . Our barometer is TDK . If he stays upright we will be a hard side to put away. Annoyingly I think the crows have jerked around long enough and will feature in top 8. As for freo love I’m not feeling it . The ladder Same as last year with blues 4th and crows 6-8 .
Click to expand...
Injuries will cook you at the start also

Smith while an unknown would have driven some movement and freed up others
Sam Walsh with a hamstring will be proppy until R4
Durdin and Pittonet not available until R4 minimum
Newman out for the year
Curnow - might make R1 but could be proppy until R4 also

Richmond - W Bulldogs 50/50 Hawthorn - L and Collingwood - L to start the season in that 4 game window

I admire your confidence but I am down grading Carlton for now - and that could be to my detriment

I also think Freo could be anything or nothing
 
GreyCrow said:
Injuries will cook you at the start also

Smith while an unknown would have driven some movement and freed up others
Sam Walsh with a hamstring will be proppy until R4
Durdin and Pittonet not available until R4 minimum
Newman out for the year
Curnow - might make R1 but could be proppy until R4 also

Richmond - W Bulldogs 50/50 Hawthorn - L and Collingwood - L to start the season in that 4 game window

I admire your confidence but I am down grading Carlton for now - and that could be to my detriment

I also think Freo could be anything or nothing
Click to expand...
Why would Walsh or Curnow be proppy until Rd 4?
 
luciien said:
1. Hawthorn
2.Carlton
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Brisbane
6. Collingwood
7. Bulldogs
8. Sydney

9. Gold Coast
10. Melbourne
11. GWS
12. Port
13. Adelaide
14. St. Kildare
15. Essendon
16. North
17. West Coast
18. Richmond
Click to expand...
Kildare?? Kildare?? It's Kilda! Say it right :sweatsmile:
 

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GreyCrow said:
Injuries will cook you at the start also

Smith while an unknown would have driven some movement and freed up others
Sam Walsh with a hamstring will be proppy until R4
Durdin and Pittonet not available until R4 minimum
Newman out for the year
Curnow - might make R1 but could be proppy until R4 also

Richmond - W Bulldogs 50/50 Hawthorn - L and Collingwood - L to start the season in that 4 game window

I admire your confidence but I am down grading Carlton for now - and that could be to my detriment

I also think Freo could be anything or nothing
Click to expand...

GreyCrow said:
Injuries will cook you at the start also

Smith while an unknown would have driven some movement and freed up others
Sam Walsh with a hamstring will be proppy until R4
Durdin and Pittonet not available until R4 minimum
Newman out for the year
Curnow - might make R1 but could be proppy until R4 also

Richmond - W Bulldogs 50/50 Hawthorn - L and Collingwood - L to start the season in that 4 game window

I admire your confidence but I am down grading Carlton for now - and that could be to my detriment

I also think Freo could be anything or nothing
Click to expand...
Lucas campo has smith covered he looked the goods . The only
Loss that bothers me is Newman. He’s a great attitude barometer and bleeds blue . The rest we got covered across the board . Walsh will be fine Charlie not sure but kemp and harry can do that job until he's cherry
 
Brighton_Diggins said:
Lucas campo has smith covered he looked the goods . The only
Loss that bothers me is Newman. He’s a great attitude barometer and bleeds blue . The rest we got covered across the board . Walsh will be fine Charlie not sure but kemp and harry can do that job until he's cherry
Click to expand...
Come on, man....

Lucas Camporeale is no Jagga Smith.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Why would Walsh or Curnow be proppy until Rd 4?
Click to expand...
Hamstrings are the worst for confidence - you just dont go at 100% for a while. Same with Curnow coming back after missing a chunk of pre-season - and now talk of him missing R1

Having a further look your draw does open up where you could expect to be 2-4 3-3
 
1. Brisbane
2. GWS
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Swans
6. Carlton
7. Hawthorn
8. Adelaide

9. Port
10. Collingwood
11. Bulldogs
12. Gold Coast
13. Melbourne
14. Saints
15. Essendon
16. North
17. West Coast
18. Richmond
 
GreyCrow said:
Hamstrings are the worst for confidence - you just dont go at 100% for a while. Same with Curnow coming back after missing a chunk of pre-season - and now talk of him missing R1

Having a further look your draw does open up where you could expect to be 2-4 3-3
Click to expand...

Walsh and Curnow are elite athletes/runners, fitness won't be the concern, both would likely player round 1 if it wasn't the Tigers

I think at worst we will be 4-2
 
Brighton_Diggins said:
Didn’t say that. Said he’ll cover him. Both players are known yet unknown in the same breath.
Click to expand...
Huh?

To suggest Player A will cover Player B, you're thereby stating Player A is at least Player B's equivalent.

If you think Camporeale is anywhere near Smith, you haven't seen either of them play much footy.
 
Brighton_Diggins said:
Didn’t say that. Said he’ll cover him. Both players are known yet unknown in the same breath.
Click to expand...

A bit like this? With apologies to Donald Rumsfeld.

“There are known knowns, things we know that we know; and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don't know.”
 
Stax on the mill said:
A bit like this? With apologies to Donald Rumsfeld.

“There are known knowns, things we know that we know; and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don't know.”
Click to expand...
What about unknown knowns - things we forgot that we knew?
 
1. Sydney
2. Collingwood
3. Geelong
4. Port Adelaide
5. Brisbane Lions
6. Fremantle
7. Hawthorn
8. Adelaide

9. GWS Giants
10. Carlton
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Melbourne
13. Gold Coast
14. St Kilda
15. Essendon
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

Tough to call. Think everyone down to 13th it wouldn't shock me if they finished Top 6.
 

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