Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Denno]

The pre-finals bye will stay. It was brought in when one year Ross Lyon rested more than half his side for final round of home and away match that was a dead rubber. AFL doesn't want these situations.

Yep, so to not compromise the H&A season (good luck to them, they've earnt the right to rest their players), they introduce the week off, and compromise the finals instead (which exists to this day).

Only the AFL.........

 

[Tom14]

Yep, so to not compromise the H&A season (good luck to them, they've earnt the right to rest their players), they introduce the week off, and compromise the finals instead (which exists to this day).

Only the AFL.........

League exists to sell content and promote gambling. Being a genuine competition is a distant third objective.

 

[martinson]

League exists to sell content and promote gambling. Being a genuine competition is a distant third objective.

The fact that the fixture and the scheduling lacks professional integrity incomparable to any major sport throughout the world will come back to bite them one day.

But not any time soon.

 

[Hanley]

The pre-finals bye will stay. It was brought in when one year Ross Lyon rested more than half his side for final round of home and away match that was a dead rubber. AFL doesn't want these situations.

On the flip-side, it was pretty funny that people got really upset because it impacted their personal 'fantasy grand finals'...

 

[Section 5]

Who’s still left in AFL finals race... and Swans miracle that refuses to die — Power Rankings

Who’s still left in AFL finals race... and Swans miracle that refuses to die: Power Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

2. BRISBANE LIONS (10-4-1, 113.4%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Geelong by 41 pts

The June 2025 Brisbane Lions, your Kings Of Goalkicking Variance! From one week where their opponents kicked six goals more than they should’ve on expected score, to another where their opponents kicked seven goals fewer than they should’ve on expected score, who knows where this wacky group of footballers will end up next?! The good news is expected score doesn’t decide the ladder, despite our repeated pleas to the AFL, and the Lions will return from their bye week still second on the ladder regardless of what happens. Just keep in mind how damn tough their remaining fixture still is - 12th-placed Port Adelaide is their lowest-ranked opponent left - and that after Round 16, there could be just one and a half wins between Brisbane and whoever’s in ninth. They are not safe.


This week: BYE

 

[dlanod]

Just keep in mind how damn tough their remaining fixture still is - 12th-placed Port Adelaide is their lowest-ranked opponent left

Given we've dropped more expected points against the bottom six than the top eight I'd say we've got the perfect remaining fixture.

 

[BangyBangy]

I saw the AFL video last week where the 'expert' came out & predicted that our game against Hawthorn in the final round may be to decide if we make finals or not.

Reckon that dude had penciled us in for a win in Geelong? Hahaha, suck it fool.

Who knows how this will all pan out, but before last week if you had a look at all our away remaining games, I'd have had the difficulty in this order.

1. Geelong in Geelong
2. Fremantle in Perth.
3. Collingwood at the MCG
4. Suns in Nerang.
5. Carlton at Marvel.

This all counts for nought if the Power roll us in a couple of weeks lol.

 

[martinson]

It's just an observation but for a long time 'experts' and fans obsess over the fixture and say this or that is bound to happen and the majority of the time they get it badly wrong.

If you're a good team and you play well you can beat anybody and if you play poorly anybody can beat you.

Add to that the mental preparation and psychology of the game which often sees your easiest prey get themselves up against you and you dropping your guard against them.

Would we like an 'easier' draw like some of the other contenders ? Absolutely we would.

Is it going to hinder our chances in 2025 ? Perhaps , but maybe not.

In 2024 we had a couple of devastating losses against good teams leading into the finals . And in hindsight that was the best thing that ever happened to us because we played with the freedom that we had nothing to lose after that.

 

[Section 5]

Given we've dropped more expected points against the bottom six than the top eight I'd say we've got the perfect remaining fixture.

I like the logic hopefully it pans out.

 

[Section 5]

Just how hard is the Lions draw after the bye.
Last year we lost 2 of the last 8 and the Swans made the GF
From below just the Hawks compared to the Eagles is the standout to me.
Compare 2024 to 2025 but not in round order.

2024: Pies(L), Suns, Swans - Crows, Giants(L), Saints, Bombers, Eagles
2025: Pies..., Suns, Swans - Dogs, Dockers..., Power.., Blues and Hawks

 

[Section 5]

If you wondered how teams "pressure acts' & "speed of the ball" are calculated

Speed of ball example is the recent Lions V Cats game

This key stat AFL clubs ‘deeply believe in’. Here’s how it’s calculated and what it actually means

This key stat AFL clubs ‘deeply believe in’. Here’s how it’s calculated and what it actually means

www.foxsports.com.au

Speed of the Ball

 

[Sunny Land]

I saw the AFL video last week where the 'expert' came out & predicted that our game against Hawthorn in the final round may be to decide if we make finals or not.

Reckon that dude had penciled us in for a win in Geelong? Hahaha, suck it fool.

Who knows how this will all pan out, but before last week if you had a look at all our away remaining games, I'd have had the difficulty in this order.

1. Geelong in Geelong
2. Fremantle in Perth.
3. Collingwood at the MCG
4. Suns in Nerang.
5. Carlton at Marvel.

This all counts for nought if the Power roll us in a couple of weeks lol.

Wow....the want of more never ends does it.

 

[BangyBangy]

Wow....the want of more never ends does it.

I'd say if we can snag another two away wins & do the business at home then we'd be a solid chance for top 4.

But yeah, as great as that win was in Geelong it becomes a bit of a lost opportunity if we drop home games against middle of the ladder sides post bye.

 

[mpal6]

I saw the AFL video last week where the 'expert' came out & predicted that our game against Hawthorn in the final round may be to decide if we make finals or not.

Reckon that dude had penciled us in for a win in Geelong? Hahaha, suck it fool.

Who knows how this will all pan out, but before last week if you had a look at all our away remaining games, I'd have had the difficulty in this order.

1. Geelong in Geelong
2. Fremantle in Perth.
3. Collingwood at the MCG
4. Suns in Nerang.
5. Carlton at Marvel.

This all counts for nought if the Power roll us in a couple of weeks lol.

More worried about home games than away to be honest. We go into the caged Lion mentality when away and perform way better. Adelaide in Adelaide should've been a win too from that context.

At home, we just take a snooze along the way and then go "what? we lost? when did that happen?".

 

[BangyBangy]

More worried about home games than away to be honest. We go into the caged Lion mentality when away and perform way better. Adelaide in Adelaide should've been a win too from that context.

At home, we just take a snooze along the way and then go "what? we lost? when did that happen?".

Clearly I'm biased but I think we've only been truly beaten once this year and that was the Pies game. The other three losses I think are more on us than the opposition. Maybe it's too simplistic to say we lost those games rather than we were beaten, but I do think they would have been different outcomes if they were big finals.

 

[Sunny Land]

Clearly I'm biased but I think we've only been truly beaten once this year and that was the Pies game. The other three losses I think are more on us than the opposition. Maybe it's too simplistic to say we lost those games rather than we were beaten, but I do think they would have been different outcomes if they were big finals.

Agree. Nobody can argue that our best is better than anybody else’s best. …EXCITING.

 

[Sunny Land]

Clearly I'm biased but I think we've only been truly beaten once this year and that was the Pies game. The other three losses I think are more on us than the opposition. Maybe it's too simplistic to say we lost those games rather than we were beaten, but I do think they would have been different outcomes if they were big finals.

When you think about it, we are about to qualify for another finals series…..that makes it 7 consecutive years of playing finals including 2 grand finals and one winning one.
That said, the challenge for them to be up for every game would not be easy. Having games like that one last week was one they were geared up for and look what they did!!!
We are so lucky to support a club so professional with so much success. Grateful to them for what they consistently do for us.

 

[braddsey]

Given we've dropped more expected points against the bottom six than the top eight I'd say we've got the perfect remaining fixture.

There’s going to be some tough high intensity football in our run home. Fortunately we have the pre-finals bye for our players to rest up before hitting the finals*.

*acknowledging we need 4 more wins.

 

[Perrip]

Monday Cal-culations

The 'Meters Lost' Leaders
Collingwood and Brisbane being the leading flag favourites this year represent a stark contrast in styles – namely their ball movement.
Champion Data shows the Lions are the No.1 team for backwards kicks per game – 14.7 – across the first 15 rounds of the season, with Collingwood having the second-fewest at 6.8 a game.
In a world of metres gained, we're looking at metres lost – and the teams that use metres lost to set up their play and the others who get forced backwards to their detriment.
Dayne Zorko

15

Dayne Zorko

Age

36

Ht

175cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

8.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

6.0

5star

MG

440.5

5star

D

14.0

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

5.0

5star

MG

291.0

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

6.6

5star

entered this round as the No.4 player in the competition for negative kick metres (-286 metres). He was one of seven Lions, alongside Darcy Wilmot, Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

28

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

, Will Ashcroft, Jack Payne, Jaspa Fletcher and Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

32

Ht

177cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

, in the top 50 players in the AFL for negative kick metres this season.
The Lions group was the most of any club, topping Essendon and Melbourne's six in the top 50. Neale, through virtue of being one of the game's best ball-getters, was the leader in the AFL for total metres lost, with 856 for the season, ahead of Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

and Will Ashcroft.

 

[Nunez]

Monday Cal-culations

I.E we switch a lot

 

[M Malice]

We make the ground big by spreading combined with drawing the defence forward with short precise kicks which will eventually result in a free player in the corridor and/or forward.... hopefully.

 

[Section 5]

Monday Cal-culations

I get the Lions/Pies part of the article is about two different styles.
But it gives the impression that the Pies have a better meter gained compared to the Lions, but they don't.
It is also telling us that we kick the ball backwards 7.9 times more per game or 1.9 times a quarter than the top team Pies
Only the Eagles (bottom) advance the ball forward more than the Pies (top) according to the article.
So, i am not sure this individual stat is all that relevant. However, combined stats usually show a team's relevance.

Meters gained is the net result of forward and back movement of the ball. Includes kicks, handballs along with running with the ball.

Their example is Zorko kicking it backwards -286 meters. I will assume that is game average not total.
However, Zorkos meters gained to R15 is 9247 (average 616) including that negative 286.
So that's 902 meters forward less 286 backward = net 616

Looking at both sides team average meters gained after playing 15 games each.
Lions: 6013.5
Pies: 5987.0
....................................

Fans only get Meters Gained but there are 2 other Champion data stats associated.

Effective is way more important: It is how far a player has been able to advance the ball without turning it over but not provided to us fans.
Assisted: An example is a player who handballs laterally to a teammate who then kicks forward 50 metres is awarded with 50 metres of assisted metres gained

Below glossary of the other two from Champion Data.

Metres Gained (Effective): Total metres gained by a player or a team from effective disposals. Metres Gained (Assisted): Total metres gained by a teammate that receives an uncontested possession from your disposal.

 

[twhowler]

I get the Lions/Pies part of the article is about two different styles.
But it gives the impression that the Pies have a better meter gained compared to the Lions, but they don't.
It is also telling us that we kick the ball backwards 7.9 times more per game or 1.9 times a quarter than the top team Pies
Only the Eagles (bottom) advance the ball forward more than the Pies (top) according to the article.
So, i am not sure this individual stat is all that relevant. However, combined stats usually show a team's relevance.

Meters gained is the net result of forward and back movement of the ball. Includes kicks, handballs along with running with the ball.

Their example is Zorko kicking it backwards -286 meters. I will assume that is game average not total.
However, Zorkos meters gained to R15 is 9247 (average 616) including that negative 286.
So that's 902 meters forward less 286 backward = net 616

Looking at both sides team average meters gained after playing 15 games each.
Lions: 6013.5
Pies: 5987.0
....................................

Fans only get Meters Gained but there are 2 other Champion data stats associated.

Effective is way more important: It is how far a player has been able to advance the ball without turning it over but not provided to us fans.
Assisted: An example is a player who handballs laterally to a teammate who then kicks forward 50 metres is awarded with 50 metres of assisted metres gained

Below glossary of the other two from Champion Data.

Metres Gained (Effective): Total metres gained by a player or a team from effective disposals. Metres Gained (Assisted): Total metres gained by a teammate that receives an uncontested possession from your disposal.

i was assuming Zorko had a total of 286 metres gone backwards. 286 a game would be a lot! most metres backwards kicks go 5-10m backwards with more sideways involved

 

[Section 5]

i was assuming Zorko had a total of 286 metres gone backwards. 286 a game would be a lot! most metres backwards kicks go 5-10m backwards with more sideways involved

The article did not make it clear so i went with per game

286 a game is 9-15 kicks back or 2.25-3.75 per quarter. I agree it is a reasonable high number even using 9 per game
Also, he may handball and run with the ball backwards. No way i can work that part out.
He is that type of player that does run with the ball a bit, so some would also be backwards

286 total is only 19 meters per game. Thats 1 kick a game or 0.25 per quarter with no handball or running involved.

Thats why i did not go with total.
If the article really did mean total and that is much easier to quantify, than it really was a pretty meaningless article

Zorko average this year is 22.3 kicks and 4 handballs a game. So, he does kick way more than handball.

 

[twhowler]

The article did not make it clear so i went with per game

286 a game is 9-15 kicks back or 2.25-3.75 per quarter. I agree it is a reasonable high number even using 9 per game
Also, he may handball and run with the ball backwards. No way i can work that part out.
He is that type of player that does run with the ball a bit, so some would also be backwards

286 total is only 19 meters per game. Thats 1 kick a game or 0.25 per quarter with no handball or running involved.

Thats why i did not go with total.
If the article really did mean total and that is much easier to quantify, than it really was a pretty meaningless article

Zorko average this year is 22.3 kicks and 4 handballs a game. So, he does kick way more than handball.

yeah i agree 19 per game seems very low for someonw who is the highest

286 also seems too high though! it says it is based on kicks only. he has 22 a game. he usually has what 6-7 kick ins at a minimum? they can't go backwards. so he has 15 kicks left. 10 of those would need to travel backwards an average of 28.6m which is a) a long way backwards and b) two thirds of his in-play kicks. in my mind's eye he kicks aggressively forward quite a lot...

the article is very unclear. it mentions neale is the leader for total negative metres - presumably mostly running and handballs?