List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
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[Yawkey way]

Disagree, this is definitely bad for Carlton.
1. the TDK compo will be band 1 but they will most likely need to trade it out as it falls around the Dean bid - who knows what they will get back.
2. the JSOS compo is likely to be end of first round, which is like mid 20's in a shallow draft.
3. Multiple best 22 players leaving is really bad for morale.

To young guns in Smith and Dean that’s a lock.

Then they now have a decent hand to work with where previously they had very little having traded this years first. Sure loosing TDK and Silvagni will sting but they still have plenty to work with imo.

Anyone who thinks Carlton will be winning the spoon will be very dissapointed imo.

 

[projectv]

deleted content

JSOS is a risk.

TDK on such a long deal is a risk

Only signing Nas for 2 years is a risk.

The club is taking risks, it may pay off, it may fail spectacularly.

Better than us not ****ing trying though.

 

[Captain Paddy]

Losing Windy over money while paying a fortune for a chronically injured defender when we still have Aleer coming isn’t good business

 

[snails13]

Assuming a fit list, going up in age, between Max King aged 25yr 1 month and Dougal Howard and Callum Wilkie at 29y 5m we have only Jack Higgins (26y 5m) as a definite starter (also Dan Butler, Hunter Clark, Paddy Dow and Liam Stocker as depth).

The (potential) new recruits start to fill in the 25-29yo hole in our list...

TDK is 26y 1m

JSoS is 27y 9m

Liam Ryan is 28yr 11m

Add to that Leek Aleer and Sam Flanders have both recently turned 24yo and are ready to go.

As you say, the strategy is clear... in order to aim for finals/a flag tilt now, you need more players in their mid/late 20s when theoretically players should be at their physical peak. Whilst not perfect players, the above list really aligns with that strategy.

Aleer is coming to play all the rounds that JSOS doesn't play,good thinking by our team i reckon.

 

[botts]

Media seems quite adamant it's going to get Carlton band 1. Will be interesting to see how that plays out. They need all the help they can get.

Won’t be band one for jsos. To old, not enough coin

 

[Joffaboy]

Well I mean, like any other club we have a salary cap.

There has to be a point where it runs out.

That may be the case, but you correlated JSOS directly with Windy's contract. Where is the evidence we cannot do any of this under the SC? Do you really think they just look at 2025 SC and not 5 to 8 years down the track?

 

[CHBench]

Worth a watch right now
Also worth remembering we have not built in the cap increase into existing contracts, unlike most
A 2022 $650k player is a 2026 $780k player

 

[Linton Street Saint]

Losing Windy over money while paying a fortune for a chronically injured defender when we still have Aleer coming isn’t good business .... ?

.... we've lost Windy ?

 

[PJays]

We have cap space because
2. We front loaded otherwise we were paying 85% in 2025, basically 3 x 5% going forward or 2.745

where did you hear this?

and how do you calculate 2.745?

The difference between 85% and 95% in 2025 is 1.8 (16.9 vs 15.1)

4. A large amount of 1-3 year players on the list,

Which means a large amount of 3,4,5 year players looking for big pay increases in 2 years time....

5. No salary cap increases are built into any contract.

That's a good thing, since the cap only increases 3% in 2026 and 1% in 2027.

 

[snails13]

Cosy ya

ok saints fans hear me out

can you please pay Jade Gresham 50 million dollars a year so he can leave us?
























Plea

ok saints fans hear me out

can you please pay Jade Gresham 50 million dollars a year so he can leave us?
























Please?

Get your full list back,you won't have to worry about him at AFL level

 

[Dard Ball Get]

.... we've lost Windy ?

Saw him walking out of the club with a bag of his stuff the other day, body language says gone

 

[Donflicted]

Cosy ya



Get your full list back,you won't have to worry about him at AFL level

Hopefully seems that Matt Inness has some good rep

Hopefully this works out for the Saints but you certainly are not going down without trying that's for sure

 

[Broski]

Tony Elshaug getting a job at the Swans is a highlight of the day I reckon.

 

[tim_saints]

deleted content

You don’t win flags being conservative

You also don’t win flags going to the draft in a very poor draft, a draft that’s heavily impacted by academy and compensation picks, one of the last ones that is not heavily impacted by Tassie also.

TDK checked out, he is a much much better player than he showed the 2nd half of this year, I’ve got no doubt he will be in the AA discussion with us now he’s got a fresh start and his long term security.

Jsos was playing every bit as good as battle was for us and the hawks this year prior to injury.

Liam Ryan is much better than Dan Butler.

NAS I can’t believe anyone is even concerned about the money we paid him, he’s a top 5 player in the comp who gives a flying **** what we pay him.

We did this a few years ago with Hill, Jones, Howard etc the difference being this time around the team is younger, full of draft picks we made the last 4 years, the team is better and the recruits we are bringing in are better.

Be happy!! Be pumped, think good things because it may be closer than you realise.

 

[projectv]

Worth a watch right now
Also worth remembering we have not built in the cap increase into existing contracts, unlike most
A 2022 $650k player is a 2026 $780k player

Good post. Just goes to show how many BF posters still think it's 2016.

 

[Saints43]

I'm not filled with enthusiasm.

The strategy is clear - throw absolutely everything at a flag.

FMD

 

[stavro#4]

We have cap space because
1. We banked 2 x 5% approx 1.8
2. We front loaded otherwise we were paying 85% in 2025, basically 3 x 5% going forward or 2.745
3. together that's about 4.7 mill.
That's what we can roughly work out. Then we have
4. A large amount of 1-3 year players on the list, AND
5. No salary cap increases are built into any contract. Apparently only us and Essendon have achieved this.

Who knows how much 4 and 5 are saving us but really even a superficial calculation of what is known numbers 1, 2, and 3) shows that the SC is not being blown up. Only lazy commentators who have agenda's and salty supporters of other clubs are spouting the maxed out SC trope.
Operators like McGuire can see what is happening.

Sure.

But to achieve the above you need to gut your GOPs as they are on average salary and replace them with draftees on a quarter of the salary for the first couple of years.

With that cap space you forward pay deals for your existing top end talent.

The longer you hit the draft the longer you can repeat the above.

Hence why we have so much space right now.

 

[Linton Street Saint]

Saw him walking out of the club with a bag of his stuff the other day, body language says gone

I knew we should have sacked SOS before the Melbourne game. Running roughshod over the whole club, has compromising photos of Ross and Bassat at 'the lunch'

We're a rabble. Mass Exodus. Seems no one told any of the players or managers though.

 

[projectv]

Saw him walking out of the club with a bag of his stuff the other day, body language says gone

Refused to comment on what flavour of Yochi he was going to be getting later today.

Goneski.

 

[snails13]

It’s just good list management, I’ve felt that our jack stocks have been diminishing but this will hold the line for a good year or two. Good admin this.

We will need another Max soon

 

[jimmytigs]

who else will be death riding the suns this week,so as to keep the momentum up with the flanders announcement next week?

hopefully windy announcement comes even sooner

aleer can wait,im tipping giants for the flag(hoping vs the 3 remaining vic clubs anyway)

 

[Hayes4PM]

who else will be death riding the suns this week,so as to keep the momentum up with the flanders announcement next week?

hopefully windy announcement comes even sooner

aleer can wait,im tipping giants for the flag(hoping vs the 3 remaining vic clubs anyway)

I don't need incentive to death ride the Suns.

 

[snails13]

Honestly, I hope we are doing dodgy stuff with the salary cap. It would be boring and vanilla to simply have an accountant work all this stuff out. Get some seedy businessmen on the side helping out.

That's Wilkies part time job, gets $250 k a year on top of his footy contract

 

[akaifu]

Carlton fans thought they were getting band 1

 

[snails13]

I'd love to know how we could be managing that.

Supposedly paying Nas and TDK $3.7 or $3.8m.

Let's say $900k for JSOS front-loaded.

Total say $4.6mil using $1.7m TDK.

The entire cap is $19.2 million (Including the 5% excess).

That leaves $14.6mil for the rest of the list.

Keeping in mind St Kilda must have paid $16.9mil this year (95% of $17.8mil).

People have suggested the marketing fund, but the entire fund is $35 million distributed to 54 players by the end of 2027. Assuming even distribution that's less than $2mil per club and it includes AFLW.

I wonder if they're anticipating Marshall finds a new home either this year or next. According to the Herald Sun rich 100, he's our highest paid player.

Haven't you donated your Brown paper bag yet