Carlton's finals aspirations for 2026

[Black Haze]

Carlton will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2025, which saw them miss finals for the first time since 2022.

The departures of De Koning and Silvagni look bad on paper, but I remember my own side doing alright after losing Griffen, Cooney and Higgins.

The core of Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, Curnow and McKay is still intact and all were well below their best in 2025.

Could Carlton return to finals in 2026?

 

[NetworkNerd]

Wait till after trade period. They had say 1.7M put aside for TDK/Silvagni so they have every chance to pick up an A grader

 

[Xtreme]

Could Carlton return to finals in 2026?

Carlton have "will the last person out the door please turn out the lights" vibes at present.

A long way off of premiership contention.

 

[Cyber_punk]

Nope. Time for a rebuild.

 

[Mr.X]

Could Carlton return to finals in 2026?

Likely to be middle of the road in 2026.

Could be contending for finals in 2027 if they trade/draft well in this and next years offseasons

 

[ABAB]

Carlton need to first fix overpaying for their top end talents otherwise rebuild until these players are retire or close to retirement and then offer them way less money.

 

[Worm4]

Can we please stop opening new threads on Carlton its bloody boring.

 

[deck]

Wait till after trade period. They had say 1.7M put aside for TDK/Silvagni so they have every chance to pick up an A grader

They had a chance last year but balked on the price. Anyone they could get will come at a similar asking price if not more.

 

[beerbandit]

 

[Hobbes]

It feels like their list is much too top-heavy to achieve anything much.

 

[beerbandit]

Can we please stop opening new threads on Carlton its bloody boring.

Nope, quite the opposite. They are very entertaining.

 

[Worm4]

Nope, quite the opposite. They are very entertaining.

The real entertainment will be tomorrow night

 

[beerbandit]

The real entertainment will be tomorrow night

Stick to the thread please Wormy about Carlton’s finals aspirations of 2026.

 

[Worm4]

Stick to the thread please Wormy about Carlton’s finals aspirations of 2026.

Not enough threads already on Carlton ?

 

[Fadge]

Stick to the thread please Wormy about Carlton’s finals aspirations of 2026.

We understand why he'd want to deflect, don't we?

 

[Fadge]

'Just a few tweaks' required.

 

[Worm4]

We understand why he'd want to deflect, don't we?

Just another excuse for you to repeat your thoughts ad nauseum

 

[dees arent rabble]

I have them tipped for the spoon and Voss to be sacked before the end of the season

 

[btdg]

Weirdly, I don't think the departures hurt our finals chances at all.

Silvagni has played only 12 of the last 56 games for the club due to injury, and has never played in a final. His two positions are 'third tall forward and makeshift ruck', and about 10 games as a third tall defender. Both are probably the easiest on teh ground to cover anyway, and those are roles we are oddly well stocked in (with both Brodie Kemp and Mitch McGovern

11

Mitch Mcgovern

Age

31

Ht

190cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

189.8

3star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

1.1

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

179.6

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

MG

218.0

4star

having played both spots in between injuries of their own)

TDK is a unique ruckman, but I think objectively not a great one. Has never been All-Australian, and wihle this was his best year, he's probably what, th 6th best ruck in the league? So his loss is as much potential (or as much 'potential' as a 26 year-old has?). But in terms of what is lost, he had a good year this year, BUT I oddly think that some of our midfielders - Cripps in particular - are better both offensively and defensively alongside a more conventional ruck, who isn't crashing and belting their way forward themselves.

I actually feel right now that Carlton 2026 are in a very similar position to 2025 - which is capable of being pretty good when injury free, but short on depth and particularly vulnerable to injuries to the top 6 or so players. As we saw in 2025, there is literally no backup if either Curnow or McKay gets injured (we used rookie listed 19yo Hudson O'Keefe and an out of position Lewis Young

33

Lewis Young

Age

26

Ht

202cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

197.9

3star

D

4.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

1.0

1star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

26.0

1star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.2

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.0

4star

MG

181.6

3star

for the 16 games where one or the other was missing), and the backup for Walsh missing 10+ games was rookie Cooper Lord.

So if everything goes right could probably scrape into the 8 a la 2024. If injuries or bad luck hit could drop to bottom 4 (as could have happened this year, but enough other teams fell off as well like Port and Essendon). SOS/TDK don't play a big part either way.

To play deep into finals we would need to add a lot of depth in trade week and I just don't see that happening. We won't sign actual free agents and risk losing the TDK/SOS compo and I think we are 6-7 mature good players short of a top 4 list so I can't see much happening that changes that from here. I think the Carlton plan would just be to stash the draft picks and cap space now, hope for a slightly more healthy 2026, then use the cap space in 2027 and beyond to compete.

 

[Stumpy Pete]

Weirdly, I don't think the departures hurt our finals chances at all.

Silvagni has played only 12 of the last 56 games for the club due to injury, and has never played in a final. His two positions are 'third tall forward and makeshift ruck', and about 10 games as a third tall defender. Both are probably the easiest on teh ground to cover anyway, and those are roles we are oddly well stocked in (with both Brodie Kemp and Mitch McGovern having played both spots in between injuries of their own)

TDK is a unique ruckman, but I think objectively not a great one. Has never been All-Australian, and wihle this was his best year, he's probably what, th 6th best ruck in the league? So his loss is as much potential (or as much 'potential' as a 26 year-old has?). But in terms of what is lost, he had a good year this year, BUT I oddly think that some of our midfielders - Cripps in particular - are better both offensively and defensively alongside a more conventional ruck, who isn't crashing and belting their way forward themselves.

I actually feel right now that Carlton 2026 are in a very similar position to 2025 - which is capable of being pretty good when injury free, but short on depth and particularly vulnerable to injuries to the top 6 or so players. As we saw in 2025, there is literally no backup if either Curnow or McKay gets injured (we used rookie listed 19yo Hudson O'Keefe and an out of position Lewis Young for the 16 games where one or the other was missing), and the backup for Walsh missing 10+ games was rookie Cooper Lord.

So if everything goes right could probably scrape into the 8 a la 2024. If injuries or bad luck hit could drop to bottom 4 (as could have happened this year, but enough other teams fell off as well like Port and Essendon). SOS/TDK don't play a big part either way.

To play deep into finals we would need to add a lot of depth in trade week and I just don't see that happening. We won't sign actual free agents and risk losing the TDK/SOS compo and I think we are 6-7 mature good players short of a top 4 list so I can't see much happening that changes that from here. I think the Carlton plan would just be to stash the draft picks and cap space now, hope for a slightly more healthy 2026, then use the cap space in 2027 and beyond to compete.

This is a very fair and reasonable assessment. When a list lacks depth it is more reliant on luck (or perhaps a lack of bad luck?). I think the odds of Carlton playing finals are around 30%

Regards

S. Pete

 

[RAPPA]

Perrucelle. Treloar. Chesser. Reeves. Reidy. The other 17 teams better watch out.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

 

[Bucking Beads]

They will likely be bottom 4. They're better off cutting hard now and trying to swing back up in 2-3 years.

 

[RedWhite4Ever]

A more important question is - are St. Kilda the new Carlton?

 

[Toump Ass]

I don't think they'll win a single game.