List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[SaintsofSteel]

Interesting that Hawks seemed to take a mass of similar intercepting backs over gorillas. It seems to be a fashion for aerial dominance that turns back into fast rebound.

Hawthorn are very much the current innovators. There aren't many really big lump backs left any more. Harris Andrews and Sam Taylor probably the best of the really tall backs, May and Collins the better of the big body types. Lobb probably the best of big body and tall.

WTF is Barrass? He is exactly that they recruited to play on the main key forwards.

 

[Klaatu]

There aren't too many sides in recent times that have bottomed out for years and had success. Melbourne probably the only one.

Melbourne also got AFL assistance in Roo's as coach & Peter Jackson as ceo & being on the AFL payroll.

 

[Speck]

If we’re not planning to on-trade the pick for Marshall, we’d be better off asking for their future 1st considering this years is guaranteed to be in the last 4 first round picks. We also risk someone bidding on Fincher and using up that pick. Get their 2nd instead this year and their future 1st (possibly something going back their way).

It’s proven in the NFL that clubs undervalue future picks. Stockpile for the future and we can either take it to the draft or have enough to pay for a big contracted fish.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

If we’re not planning to on-trade the pick for Marshall, we’d be better off asking for their future 1st considering this years is guaranteed to be in the last 4 first round picks. We also risk someone bidding on Fincher and using up that pick. Get their 2nd instead this year and their future 1st (possibly something going back their way).

It’s proven in the NFL that clubs undervalue future picks. Stockpile for the future and we can either take it to the draft or have enough to pay for a big contracted fish.

Absolutely....but they usually take the "I WANT IT NOW " approach.

 

[Remboy]

I heard yesterday that the Demons had been right into Moose, but have now signed Tom Campbell. So if you read between the lines that are already between the lines, you could think that Moose thought he was too far back behind Marshall and TDK, and wanted a move, but has since found out that Marshall is going.

More likely Campbell was a cheaper back up option for the Dees and the didn't want to trade so they cooled on Heath.

 

[phantom13]

See above the AFL rule changes he wont be playing in the VFL.

The club will want at the minimum Geelongs 1st round pick, something they can use to bring in Flanders or McKenzie. Given that Geelong look a monty to at least make the GF even that pick will blow out considerably given all the compensation picks, NGA's and FS's, so we may request more.

What rule change? Less ruck contests? Not sure how that supports playing another ruck?

A pick in the 30s-40s? For a guy we've already half paid for next year? Even their first, which will be late 20s on draft night, is unders for a player like Marshall.

The competition needs to stop propping up Geelong and start actually making them pay for their constant top up players.

Its not about propping up Geelong, we dont have a second round pick and we seem to want Fincher. Obviously id prefer their first, my post made that clear, what id personally do versus what the club will do arent the same thing.

Hes not gonna gain more value by the end of next year, who cares what weve paid him, its all money off the books.

That would be horrible.

Sure.

 

[PJays]

So the 83% is what we didn't spend in 2025 because of front ended contracts.
So
5 % x 2 years previous saved = 1.83 million
17% from 2025 unspent = 3.111 million
So 5 mill to spend
This does not include a 5% overspend this year = 915k
Billings and Crouch payments = 500k (guess)
No SC increases in current contracts could be 1.5 to 2 million
We don't know any current contracts front loading in 2026 ( except for TDK, JSOS and maybe Aleer).
So at least 5 million, but could be anything up to 6.5 million above SC

This is very interesting- thanks

The different categories of "excess" have different consequences

The "no SC increases in current contracts" doesn't give excess to spend per se, it just hopefully means we've got players playing at a level that exceeds their value in the future, especially those with contracts into 2028, 2029 (Higgins, Owens, King etc). But that depends on the original contract amount. If they're underachieving compared to value early in the deal, St Kilda's not really benefiting long-term at all. So it depends.

The amounts we've forward-paid from existing player contracts are only relevant until those existing contracts end.

So if I'm understanding what's reportedly occurred, assuming it's correct, it should have these consequences:

- 5% underspend in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Can be carried forward and St Kilda can spend up to 105%. Each amount must be used within 4 years of the original underspend. ~$2.7m excess available to spend over the cap across 2026 - 2029.

- 12% forward payments to make up the difference from 83% to 95% in 2025. Results in extra to spend on new players, allocating cap space to them that had been designated for other existing contracts. ~$2.1m over the lifetime of whichever forward-paid contracts were used. Utilising standard cap space

Plus Billings and Crouch coming off the books.

Plus a lean cap position to begin with- which allowed the 83% spend in 2025.

A very nice position to be in!

 

[beside the seaside]

What rule change? Less ruck contests? Not sure how that supports playing another ruck?

Its not about propping up Geelong, we dont have a second round pick and we seem to want Fincher. Obviously id prefer their first, my post made that clear, what id personally do versus what the club will do arent the same thing.

Hes not gonna gain more value by the end of next year, who cares what weve paid him, its all money off the books.

Sure.

You'd seriously take a pick in the 40s for him? I don't get that at all.

 

[g_TRAIN]

This is very interesting- thanks

The different categories of "excess" have different consequences

The "no SC increases in current contracts" doesn't give excess to spend per se, it just hopefully means we've got players playing at a level that exceeds their value in the future, especially those with contracts into 2028, 2029 (Higgins, Owens, King etc). But that depends on the original contract amount. If they're underachieving compared to value early in the deal, St Kilda's not really benefiting long-term at all. So it depends.

The amounts we've forward-paid from existing player contracts are only relevant until those existing contracts end.

So if I'm understanding what's reportedly occurred, assuming it's correct, it should have these consequences:

- 5% underspend in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Can be carried forward and St Kilda can spend up to 105%. Each amount must be used within 4 years of the original underspend. ~$2.7m excess available to spend over the cap across 2026 - 2029.

- 12% forward payments to make up the difference from 83% to 95% in 2025. Results in extra to spend on new players, allocating cap space to them that had been designated for other existing contracts. ~$2.1m over the lifetime of whichever forward-paid contracts were used. Utilising standard cap space

Plus Billings and Crouch coming off the books.

Plus a lean cap position to begin with- which allowed the 83% spend in 2025.

A very nice position to be in!

A lot of time end effort was obviously put into concocting the salary cap position were in right now. I can see it could upset a few players etc.

Hope it pays off.. hopefully the players we have targetted are the right ones to take us to the next level.

I wonder what else is in store over the next couple of months.

 

[phantom13]

You'd seriously take a pick in the 40s for him? I don't get that at all.

Yeh we need some points for Fincher and IMO Roma is playing twos all year if he stays.

If Roma wants to go then i think we honor that. Obviously id prefer Geelongs first, if that is on the table id do it in a heartbeat. If Geelong is adamant their first wont go (which i doubt) then id take their second knowing full well its unders but for a VFL player and to get our pretty good academy kid and look after Roma yep, personally i would. Then use $100k from Romas salary to keep Windy.

If we manage to get all those targets, keep our natural first, get Fincher and only lose Roma when we already have TDK, Dodson and Keeler anyway id say thats a huge ****ing win.

If we manage to get their first and make it Flanders even better.

I see absolutely no upside in keeping a 600-800k player in the twos.

Others will disagree and thats fine, i seriously doubt the clubs would demand more than Geelongs first, that would be silly (noting if we can and do get more even better).

 

[nikkig98]

Probably already been stated, but my 2 cents on Leek.
Without going too far into stereotypes, Leek Aleer and Aliir Aliir

21

Aliir Aliir

Age

31

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.2

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

240.9

4star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

158.4

3star

is the perfect comparison and best case scenario for the potential we can get from Leek.

Both Leek and Aliir are 194cm, Aliir is currently reported as being 96kg while Leek is 90kg (age gap obviously plays a factor). Leek has had much better physical attributes with a vertical of 107cm recorded at the combine.

Aliir was traded in 2020 at the age of 26 due to surplus requirements (and needing ruck cover) and the fact they rated Tom Mccartin

30

Tom Mccartin

Age

25

Ht

194cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

129.5

2star

D

7.2

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

0.8

1star

MG

87.4

2star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

168.0

3star

as key defender more than they did Aliir. As we all know, Port were able to develop him as one of the bedrocks of their backline, an AA calibre defender. He's been one of the keys of their consistent finals pushes.

We're getting Leek at 24, so 2 more years of his prime.

If our development team could turn Josh Battle

24

Josh Battle

Age

27

Ht

193cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.4

4star

MG

196.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

142.8

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

175.6

3star

into an AA rated player (mind you, his quality is exactly the same, he's just getting more recognition cause he's at Hawthorn), then I fully believe Jared Rivers and Corey Enright can turn Leek into a solid player as well.

 

[AFaiL]

A few things to consider

Wilkie, Roma and others were sat down at years start. They were told of the plan (which would have mentioned TDK obviously). They were given a bonus payment. IF there was genuine anger with these signings, it would have come out far earlier.

In addition, we have gotten nowhere with the current crop, that is just a fact. We need more, so adding TDK, JSOS and co is one way of doing that instead of praying for an 18yo to change our fortunes.

If they are upset now and leave, i would find it odd as the ONLY way they have premiership success chance is to add more talent. They are either playing for $ or success, or both.

 

[jimmytigs]

I would be going after Ted Clohesy. just turned 21 but in a long queue behind Close, Miers, Stengle, Mannagh etc. played a ripper game against us earlier in the year after coming on as sub. out of contract and would fill a need as a high pressure high tackling small fwd. Ryan and Higgins aren't that, Butler looks almost done and Collard remains speculative. also racks up big VFL numbers running through the midfield so has other strings to his bow

45​	Close, Bradley R	125​	27yr 1mth	30 Jul 1998	183cm​	77kg​	Glenelg	Forward
38​	Henry, Jack	162​	27yr	29 Aug 1998	192cm​	96kg​	Geelong Falcons	Defender
18​	Stengle, Tyson	107​	26yr 10mth	19 Oct 1998	175cm​	71kg​	Woodville West Torrens	Forward
32​	Miers, Gryan	153​	26yr 5mth	30 Mar 1999	179cm​	81kg​	Geelong Falcons	Forward
34​	Mullin, Oisin R	41​	25yr 6mth	11 Feb 2000	182cm​	85kg​	Mayo	Defender Midfield
3​		​			​	​
16​	De Koning, Sam	83​	24yr 6mth	26 Feb 2001	204cm​	97kg​	Dandenong Stingrays	Defender Ruck
4​	Bruhn, Tanner	66​	23yr 3mth	27 May 2002	184cm​	83kg​	Geelong Falcons	Midfield
33​		​			​	​
36​	Henry, Oliver	85​	23yr 1mth	29 Jul 2002	189cm​	80kg​	Geelong Falcons	Forward
9​		​			​	​
21​	Wiltshire, Oliver	2​	22yr 11mth	15 Sep 2002	180cm​	67kg​	Barwon Heads	Midfield Forward
28​	Dempsey, Ollie R	56​	22yr 8mth	7 Jan 2003	187cm​	74kg​	Carey Grammar	Midfield
10​	Knevitt, Mitchell	21​	22yr 8mth	8 Jan 2003	193cm​	85kg​	Geelong Falcons	Midfield
41​	Burke, Cillian R	0​	22yr 5mth	29 Mar 2003	185cm​	85kg​	Kerry GAA	Defender
6​	Conway, Toby	6​	22yr 4mth	24 Apr 2003	206cm​	101kg​	Geelong Falcons	Ruck
17​	Humphries, Lawson	34​	22yr 4mth	24 Apr 2003	182cm​	77kg​	Swan Districts	Defender
13​	Clark, Jhye	24​	21yr 1mth	23 Jul 2004	181cm​	77kg​	Geelong Falcons	Midfield
40​	Clohesy, Ted R	12​	21yr	6 Sep 2004	184cm​	77kg​	Mayo	Midfield Forward
15​	Stevens, George	2​	20yr 4mth	14 Apr 2005	189cm​	101kg​	Greater Western Victoria Rebels	Midfield
37​	Pike, Joe R	0​	20yr 3mth	17 May 2005	203cm​	97kg​	Geelong Falcons	Ruck
14​	O'Sullivan, Connor	24​	20yr 3mth	19 May 2005	198cm​	92kg​	Murray Bushrangers	Defender
11​	Edwards, Mitchell	0​	20yr 3mth	2 Jun 2005	206cm​	89kg​	Peel Thunder	Ruck
31​	Matofai-Forbes, Keighton	0​	19yr 7mth	2 Feb 2006	188cm​	74kg​	Western Jets	Forward
27​	Retschko, Patrick R	0​	19yr 6mth	28 Feb 2006	186cm​	79kg​	Oakleigh Chargers	Midfield
25​	Ivisic, Xavier R	0​	19yr 3mth	1 Jun 2006	181cm​	77kg​	Geelong Falcons	Midfield
2​	Polkinghorne, Jay	0​	19yr 3mth	2 Jun 2006	191cm​	86kg​	Norwood	Forward
23​	Hoffman, Lennox	0​	19yr 1mth	8 Aug 2006	191cm​	87kg​	Sandringham Dragons	Defender
20​	Molier, Jacob	0​	18yr 10mth	11 Oct 2006	201cm​	97kg​	Sturt	Ruck

 

[jimmytigs]

cant edit above post,but theres the cats in age order from the first player likely,ive taken out 3 that we wont get,if its their frdp and a player,who do we want?

 

[phantom13]

Probably already been stated, but my 2 cents on Leek.
Without going too far into stereotypes, Leek Aleer and Aliir Aliir is the perfect comparison and best case scenario for the potential we can get from Leek.

Both Leek and Aliir are 194cm, Aliir is currently reported as being 96kg while Leek is 90kg (age gap obviously plays a factor). Leek has had much better physical attributes with a vertical of 107cm recorded at the combine.

Aliir was traded in 2020 at the age of 26 due to surplus requirements (and needing ruck cover) and the fact they rated Tom Mccartin as key defender more than they did Aliir. As we all know, Port were able to develop him as one of the bedrocks of their backline, an AA calibre defender. He's been one of the keys of their consistent finals pushes.

We're getting Leek at 24, so 2 more years of his prime.

If our development team could turn Josh Battle into an AA rated player (mind you, his quality is exactly the same, he's just getting more recognition cause he's at Hawthorn), then I fully believe Jared Rivers and Corey Enright can turn Leek into a solid player as well.

Aleer made sense to me as a target for the system defense we play.

Where it gets confusing to me is Aleer and JSOS as two talls into our system with Howard/Camma, Wilkie and Tauru already in.

I cant see how a backline with Aleer, Wilkie, Howard/Camma, JSOS and Tauru really works and if the solutuon is Tauru goes forward the i cant see how a forward line with King, Sharman, Owens, Tauru/Camma works.

Anyway its a good problem to have but i wonder what the longer term issues might be.

A few things to consider

Wilkie, Roma and others were sat down at years start. They were told of the plan (which would have mentioned TDK obviously). They were given a bonus payment. IF there was genuine anger with these signings, it would have come out far earlier.

In addition, we have gotten nowhere with the current crop, that is just a fact. We need more, so adding TDK, JSOS and co is one way of doing that instead of praying for an 18yo to change our fortunes.

If they are upset now and leave, i would find it odd as the ONLY way they have premiership success chance is to add more talent. They are either playing for $ or success, or both.

Situations change, Roma might be seeing that no team plays two rucks and seeing that he doesnt have a spot.

Think the bolded is simplifying it a little. Yeh sure we need to get some complimentary pieces in but we all bang on about how well weve drafted. King should be fit so should Pou. I dont really understand how people can be so hot on our draft crop but then also be so hot for 6 new recruits taking the spots of some of our kids.

 

[Joffaboy]

Its an opinion of what id take
Im aware of the contract status

Well I disagree with your worth scale.
On an open market he may be worth that, but he is contracted with most of it having been front ended, add in what Lyon said about good clubs not trading contracted players, and in my view 25 doesn't cut it.
After taking that into consideration if you believe he is worth only 25, you must think he is pretty crap and are glad we recruited TDK.
I tend to believe he is worth a bit more maybe Geelongs 18 and 43 with our 36 going back.

 

[Nutsngum]

I heard yesterday that the Demons had been right into Moose, but have now signed Tom Campbell. So if you read between the lines that are already between the lines, you could think that Moose thought he was too far back behind Marshall and TDK, and wanted a move, but has since found out that Marshall is going.

Gawn is a year or two away from retirement. Melbourne would be interested in Heath regardless as a long term main ruck.

 

[snails13]

So clubs with father son eligible players get access to first round picks at a discount, but expansion sides don't?

Too far in the opposite direction.

A pick in the 30s-40s? For a guy we've already half paid for next year? Even their first, which will be late 20s on draft night, is unders for a player like Marshall.

The competition needs to stop propping up Geelong and start actually making them pay for their constant top up players.

Won't pick 16,17,18 or whatever position Geelong finish at still be 16,17 or 18 at trade time or just moved back a few spots due to only FA compensation at that stage
NGA picks are done at the draft ?

 

[nikkig98]

cant edit above post,but theres the cats in age order from the first player likely,ive taken out 3 that we wont get,if its their frdp and a player,who do we want?

Not gonna lie, cats players are a bit of a conundrum. Aside from the obvious superstars in Jezza, Baz, Holmes, etc a lot of the players play well above their "talent" due to the system they have got. I can't think of many players who have done better since leaving the cats. Tim Kelly stands out as a prime example to me. Clohesy is probably the best one, as you mentioned.

 

[phantom13]

Well I disagree with your worth scale.
On an open market he may be worth that, but he is contracted with most of it having been front ended, add in what Lyon said about good clubs not trading contracted players, and in my view 25 doesn't cut it.
After taking that into consideration if you believe he is worth only 25, you must think he is pretty crap and are glad we recruited TDK.
I tend to believe he is worth a bit more maybe Geelongs 18 and 43 with our 36 going back.

This is a massive oversimplification of it.

Roma is 29, hes looked banged up for two years and as much as i love him he didnt exactly set the world on fire this year.

Weve also gone out and paid the toppest of top dollars for TDK because we clearly dont think Roma is the present or future.

In an ideal world is Roma worth more than Geelong first, probably, but all the circumstances hes in make it hard to justify playing hardball to retain him IMO (noting this is all pending what HE wants too).

 

[stfan]

WTF is Barrass? He is exactly that they recruited to play on the main key forwards.

Though Barass is only 194 in height.

JSOS is very good in one on ones. As is Wilkie. Both are also good interceptors, particularly Wilkie.

I would guess with Aleer they will use him as a high leaping interceptor and spolier. At present he does not have the footy smarts of Wilkie nor JSOS.

 

[nikkig98]

Aleer made sense to me as a target for the system defense we play.

Where it gets confusing to me is Aleer and JSOS as two talls into our system with Howard/Camma, Wilkie and Tauru already in.

I cant see how a backline with Aleer, Wilkie, Howard/Camma, JSOS and Tauru really works and if the solutuon is Tauru goes forward the i cant see how a forward line with King, Sharman, Owens, Tauru/Camma works.

Anyway its a good problem to have but i wonder what the longer term issues might be.



Situations change, Roma might be seeing that no team plays two rucks and seeing that he doesnt have a spot.

Think the bolded is simplifying it a little. Yeh sure we need to get some complimentary pieces in but we all bang on about how well weve drafted. King should be fit so should Pou. I dont really understand how people can be so hot on our draft crop but then also be so hot for 6 new recruits taking the spots of some of our kids.

yeah have to agree with you there phantom, JSOS is a tough pill to swallow when I look past the rose tinted glasses of ****ing Carlton over. Money aside, i don't think we needed him and while i obviously hope it works, you have to wonder what percentage of that acquisition was fueled by SOS's need to **** over the blues aha.

 

[chris_h_11]

We're going nowhere if we're happy to assist teams above us get better.

Wilkie and Marshall both make their prospective destinations a better side, no way should we do anything to accommodate that unless it's heavily in our interest.

These are not club veterans in the last years of their career that we're happy to accommodate a trade for them to a lowly team to increase their super, these are 2 of our best players wating to go to the premiership favorite, and a team that's a decent defense away from being the best team in the comp.

 

[stavro#4]

Yeh we need some points for Fincher and IMO Roma is playing twos all year if he stays.

If Roma wants to go then i think we honor that. Obviously id prefer Geelongs first, if that is on the table id do it in a heartbeat. If Geelong is adamant their first wont go (which i doubt) then id take their second knowing full well its unders but for a VFL player and to get our pretty good academy kid and look after Roma yep, personally i would. Then use $100k from Romas salary to keep Windy.

If we manage to get all those targets, keep our natural first, get Fincher and only lose Roma when we already have TDK, Dodson and Keeler anyway id say thats a huge ****ing win.

If we manage to get their first and make it Flanders even better.

I see absolutely no upside in keeping a 600-800k player in the twos.

Others will disagree and thats fine, i seriously doubt the clubs would demand more than Geelongs first, that would be silly (noting if we can and do get more even better).

Re Fincher: The 2 picks we have now are likely to come in a fair bit. So we will either have the points or be just short that we can take the deficit into next year or need a third rounders to match.

Remember, for each matched bid: we go up one position but a minimum of 2 picks will be required to match based on the DVI

 

[phantom13]

yeah im not gonna lie, JSOS is a tough pill to swallow when I look past the rose tinted glasses of *ing Carlton over. Money aside, i don't think we needed him and while i obviously hope it works, you have to wonder what percentage of that acquisition was fueled by SOS's need to * over the blues aha.

I can certainly see the value in JSOS OR Aleer but I struggle to see why both.

JSOS is the better pure footballer but athletically hes got some weaknesses (hes ****ing slow as).

Aleer has great athleticism but his footy IQ is really low.

I saw Aleer as a zone off leaping intercept/3rd tall type which is what we were missing this year IMO (Tauru did it well in a few games but hasnt mastered the marking aspect yet and was a liability with ball in hand).

Jsos could free up Wilkie.

Anyway, ive waffled on alot about this. Seems like it happening.

If Aleer, TDK, Ryan, JSOS, Flanders all come. Added to Howard, Steele, Higgins, Stocker, Wood, Hill weve got alot of non saints drafted players. Might set a record at some point.