Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Drafting players is the best and cheapest way to get talent into your club. But it’s not the way to fill immediate needs.

I agree it doesn’t fill an immediate need, but there’s a balance to be made between all…

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Lets get real - the only decent picks Carlton have made in the draft from the time SOS arrived were wooden spoon picks in Weiteting and Walsh who picked themselves - Curnow and McKay and maybe just maybe Ollie Hollands. Ironically silvagni jnr has probably been the outstanding pick of the era at #57 - and TDK on a slow burn kicked into gear 2 years ago as an interesting ruck - 3 of them gone now. I do think HOF will be a good player and also HOK - neither were top10 picks one a hail mary.

You only have to look at the list to see how horrendous VCarlton use of top10 picks has been - and that is after the Rogers Hughes era of absolute disaster.

I'm not a buyer of Carlton cant develop players - young kids develop better in strong lists and Carlton's lack of depth across every line has been a massive negative to development.

Weitering has been playing a lone hand back there with no 2nd tall defender and we are now going to cough up 2 first rounders to get Dean who is more a third tall in height. Last year we brought in Camporeles- neither of who can kick the ball yet - but father /sons - yee haaa.

Play the kids play the kids.
Sack the coach


Makes me laugh really.

Easy there... just wanted to point out that many including Arr0w wanted us to draft Lukosius in 2018... not Walsh (who btw didn't pick himself.. it was a strong draft with multiple players rated as possible number 1 prospects).

Only trading for needs is a risky move too... what if there are no types available or willing to come to fill those needs? What if those needs are going to cost multiple 1st round picks (Butters for example)

Imagine if the best available in the draft this year at our first pick was another inside mid? Would a team with two gun rucks draft a ruck with #1 if said ruck was "best available"? Probably not.

Drafting for needs is not a dead end strategy and I hope we do that this year tbh.

 

[ctwenty1]

Easy there... just wanted to point out that many including Arr0w wanted us to draft Lukosius in 2018... not Walsh (who btw didn't pick himself.. it was a strong draft with multiple players rated as possible number 1 prospects).

Only trading for needs is a risky move too... what if there are no types available or willing to come to fill those needs? What if those needs are going to cost multiple 1st round picks (Butters for example)

Imagine if the best available in the draft this year at our first pick was another inside mid? Would a team with two gun rucks draft a ruck with #1 if said ruck was "best available"? Probably not.

Drafting for needs is not a dead end strategy and I hope we do that this year tbh.

When it comes to drafting or trading in talent or needs, it really is 6 7

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Would Freo be keen to trade 20 + 47 + F1 for 9 + 27F1 (Swans)?

 

[ctwenty1]

Would Freo be keen to trade 20 + 47 + F1 for 9 + 27F1 (Swans)?

Hmmm - they might. That 27F1 has the potential to be later than next year's, not just because of Tas but swans could stronger again in 2027 as they continue to fill some gaps. Also likley last year swans have teh chad

 

[Doro]

Trading for needs relies on being a desirable destination and also negotiating a reasonable deal with another club - it often ends up more expensive. I think you do the bulk of the work through the draft.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I am not talking anything. I am asking is Dean & pick 25-30 better than who we project to take at 9 & 11.
I see no post with a list of who we would pick at say 12 and 15 and miss out on Dean in the top 5

Take a look at the Vic Metro v Vic country game.... we're matching Dean

 

[BlueNath]

I am not talking anything. I am asking is Dean & pick 25-30 better than who we project to take at 9 & 11.
I see no post with a list of who we would pick at say 12 and 15 and miss out on Dean in the top 5

The way I see it, the higher Dean goes, the better the win is for us by being able to match the bid. Lets say WC placed a bid at pick 2 (which essentially becomes his market value)... How insane would we be to pass on the 2nd best kid in the land!

 

[Michael Jezz]

Well if you go for the doomsday scenario on here of pick 5 bid after 3 prior bids and then an Ison bid of pick 25, you likely land with the pair costing 9 & 11 exactly due to how the draft order moves around.

The alternative would likely be picking with what would become 12 and 15, so two prospects along the lines of Hibbens-Hargreaves, Cumming, Greeves, Grjl*, Marsh.

That alone shows you that the bid estimates are ridiculous.

Would you prefer Dean or 2 of s of Hibbens-Hargreaves, Cumming, Greeves, Grjl*, Marsh?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Would you prefer Dean or 2 of s of Hibbens-Hargreaves, Cumming, Greeves, Grjl*, Marsh?

For our list Dean, comfortably for me.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Would you prefer Dean or 2 of s of Hibbens-Hargreaves, Cumming, Greeves, Grjl*, Marsh?

Again depending on where the bid comes and what we do with the picks it becomes:

Dean & Dovaston/Pickett

Versus HH/Marsh (Grilj and cumming a chance to be gone)

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Again depending on where the bid comes and what we do with the picks it becomes:

Dean & Dovaston/Pickett

Versus HH/Marsh (Grilj and cumming a chance to be gone)

I hope we don't go for Dovaston / Pickett. It just feels like over-compensating now. I know they could be a 10 year player but we brought in Ainsworth and Hayward. We already have Williams, Motlop, Fog, Cottrell, Evans, Young, Moir, Kemp, potentially EH. There's Harry, and the resting ruck - and potentially Gov.

We do have other needs across the ground than forwards - and specifically small forwards. We can't fit 13 players into 6 or 7 spots on the ground.

It should be best available player full stop. Otherwise we'll end up with another LOB

 

[teddy-hopkins]

For our list Dean, comfortably for me.

Yeah Dean feels like a very fortunate FS in that he is a good player regardless but also a perfect fit for our list need right now. Ben Campo was probably at the other end of the scale. Good player but in a position we already have cover for.

 

[JJBagger]

I hope we don't go for Dovaston / Pickett. It just feels like over-compensating now. I know they could be a 10 year player but we brought in Ainsworth and Hayward. We already have Williams, Motlop, Fog, Cottrell, Evans, Young, Moir, Kemp, potentially EH. There's Harry, and the resting ruck - and potentially Gov.

We do have other needs across the ground than forwards - and specifically small forwards. We can't fit 13 players into 6 or 7 spots on the ground.

It should be best available player full stop. Otherwise we'll end up with another LOB

Cottrell, Evans, Young, Ainsworth play further up the ground. Williams is in his 30’s, Fog had a poor year last year. Kemp, Moir and Harry all play much taller.

I dont rate Dovaston as highly as others, but to say he isn’t a need for us is off the mark

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Lets get real - the only decent picks Carlton have made in the draft from the time SOS arrived were wooden spoon picks in Weiteting and Walsh who picked themselves - Curnow and McKay and maybe just maybe Ollie Hollands. Ironically silvagni jnr has probably been the outstanding pick of the era at #57 - and TDK on a slow burn kicked into gear 2 years ago as an interesting ruck - 3 of them gone now. I do think HOF will be a good player and also HOK - neither were top10 picks one a hail mary.

You only have to look at the list to see how horrendous VCarlton use of top10 picks has been - and that is after the Rogers Hughes era of absolute disaster.

I'm not a buyer of Carlton cant develop players - young kids develop better in strong lists and Carlton's lack of depth across every line has been a massive negative to development.

Weitering has been playing a lone hand back there with no 2nd tall defender and we are now going to cough up 2 first rounders to get Dean who is more a third tall in height. Last year we brought in Camporeles- neither of who can kick the ball yet - but father /sons - yee haaa.

Play the kids play the kids.
Sack the coach


Makes me laugh really.

Player turnover is so high these days we probably need to take into account what we got for a player in their trade.

From the 2016 draft McGrath and Luggage are still at their clubs - the rest of the first 15 picked are all elsewhere.

So we got 8 years of service out of TDK and then he essentially becomes Dean. That's a good pick by SOS that potentially benefits the club for another 10+ years because he got it right.

As opposed to LOB who cost a lot and disappeared for zero. Even SPS became Young who has been handy depth at times.

Curnow now becomes whoever we get with that later first round pick this year plus half of Cody and something significant in 2027 plus Hayward. Jack essentially helps become Ison plus Dean's left aggot.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Why would anyone listen to anyone else but Twomey. He may not nail the later picks but he pretty much nails the top 10 every year. His job is literally that.

Funny that "Phantom Drafts" have become a slightly different variation of what Twomey tells everyone is going to happen.

Then Twomey reveals the entire first round with 90% accuracy a week before the draft.

His job isn't really assessing the U18 talent so much as talking to all the agents to get the goss on who is keen on their clients.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Cottrell, Evans, Young, Ainsworth play further up the ground. Williams is in his 30’s, Fog had a poor year last year. Kemp, Moir and Harry all play much taller.

I dont rate Dovaston as highly as others, but to say he isn’t a need for us is off the mark

6 starting spots in the fwd line plus one on the bench. 2 of those are high half forwards (Ainsworth + Cottrell). 2 are key forwards (Harry + Kemp). 2 are small forwards (Evans + Motlop + Hayward + Williams).

Still have a resting ruck to fit in there somehow.

That leaves out EH who I think plays if he gets on the list plus Fog, Young, Moir and Gov.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

6 starting spots in the fwd line plus one on the bench. 2 of those are high half forwards (Ainsworth + Cottrell). 2 are key forwards (Harry + Kemp). 2 are small forwards (Evans + Motlop + Hayward + Williams).

Still have a resting ruck to fit in there somehow.

That leaves out EH who I think plays if he gets on the list plus Fog, Young, Moir and Gov.

How on earth does Cotts get a guaranteed gig?

He's deep in the depth chart.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I hope we don't go for Dovaston / Pickett. It just feels like over-compensating now. I know they could be a 10 year player but we brought in Ainsworth and Hayward. We already have Williams, Motlop, Fog, Cottrell, Evans, Young, Moir, Kemp, potentially EH. There's Harry, and the resting ruck - and potentially Gov.

We do have other needs across the ground than forwards - and specifically small forwards. We can't fit 13 players into 6 or 7 spots on the ground.

It should be best available player full stop. Otherwise we'll end up with another LOB

Whoever it is, and I trust the blokes that watch them every week, the potential comparison is Dean and a player in the late teens, not Dean alone

 

[Jimmae]

Would you prefer Dean or 2 of s of Hibbens-Hargreaves, Cumming, Greeves, Grjl*, Marsh?

You're quoting me directly saying that it's Dean and Ison vs 2 of those. If an Ison bid came in the mid 20s, we'd go into deficit in the 2026 2nd round and I believe per current AFL rules we would need to trade a pick in to clear it.

It would be in the vicinity of 100 points, but it would still force the need for a more specific trade when we might need to trade up our existing picks to secure Walker.

 

[JustaBattler]

Player turnover is so high these days we probably need to take into account what we got for a player in their trade.

From the 2016 draft McGrath and Luggage are still at their clubs - the rest of the first 15 picked are all elsewhere.

So we got 8 years of service out of TDK and then he essentially becomes Dean. That's a good pick by SOS that potentially benefits the club for another 10+ years because he got it right.

As opposed to LOB who cost a lot and disappeared for zero. Even SPS became Young who has been handy depth at times.

Curnow now becomes whoever we get with that later first round pick this year plus half of Cody and something significant in 2027 plus Hayward. Jack essentially helps become Ison plus Dean's left aggot.

We are fixing draft disasters through trades - this year through forced trades and compensation. It was a failed rebuild and failed in '23- underlined in 24 and nbolded in '25 because of repeated fails in midfield picks in the SOS era. Never really had the chance to bring in genuine needle movers- the top end was stacked and the mid to bottom end was the usual Carlton hope knocking on Faith's door.

Strap in for what should be alt least a gamer rebuild done better - it started last year but we never got see the star recruit and now have to wait a year or more to see young HOF play again - poor kid.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

How on earth does Cotts get a guaranteed gig?

He's deep in the depth chart.

I could be wrong but I think if he's fit he plays.

Either on the wing or HFF. He's the best runner on the list and his disposal is better than most.

Also like it or not Voss seems to really like him - which counts for more than all else.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

We are fixing draft disasters through trades - this year through forced trades and compensation. It was a failed rebuild and failed in '23- underlined in 24 and nbolded in '25 because of repeated fails in midfield picks in the SOS era. Never really had the chance to bring in genuine needle movers- the top end was stacked and the mid to bottom end was the usual Carlton hope knocking on Faith's door.

Strap in for what should be alt least a gamer rebuild done better - it started last year but we never got see the star recruit and now have to wait a year or more to see young HOF play again - poor kid.

I don't really agree with the whole "failed SOS era picks" theory. He built the spine of a premiership winning team. Walsh, Curnow, McKay, TDK, Weits, JSOS, Kennedy, Gov, Jones, Kemp, Boyd, Saad, Owies, etc. added to the Cripps, Doc, etc that were already there.

There was enough there to be a solid top 4 team for many years.

2 major weaknesses cost us as much or more than the list build:

• Injuries - you simply cannot compete with 10+ of your best 22 missing every week
• Dumb coaches / gameplan

I don't really know what to call what we're doing right now. It's sort of a list renovation.

 

[JJBagger]

I don't really agree with the whole "failed SOS era picks" theory. He built the spine of a premiership winning team. Walsh, Curnow, McKay, TDK, Weits, JSOS, Kennedy, Gov, Jones, Kemp, Boyd, Saad, Owies, etc. added to the Cripps, Doc, etc that were already there.

There was enough there to be a solid top 4 team for many years.

2 major weaknesses cost us as much or more than the list build:

• Injuries - you simply cannot compete with 10+ of your best 22 missing every week
• Dumb coaches / gameplan

I don't really know what to call what we're doing right now. It's sort of a list renovation.

Strongly disagree. He completely blew 3 consecutive top 10 picks, and blew first rounders in 2018 and 2019 on top of that. We nail them, then it’s maybe a top 4 list. Boyd and Saad were brought in under Austin anyway.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don't really agree with the whole "failed SOS era picks" theory. He built the spine of a premiership winning team. Walsh, Curnow, McKay, TDK, Weits, JSOS, Kennedy, Gov, Jones, Kemp, Boyd, Saad, Owies, etc. added to the Cripps, Doc, etc that were already there.

There was enough there to be a solid top 4 team for many years.

2 major weaknesses cost us as much or more than the list build:

• Injuries - you simply cannot compete with 10+ of your best 22 missing every week
• Dumb coaches / gameplan

I don't really know what to call what we're doing right now. It's sort of a list renovation.

Go have a look at the drafts from 2016-2019...

How many of those players still on the list?

There's your answer to why people say his drafting screwed us.