Preview 2025 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Jirik13]

Also, the heavier cost of matching now (lower discount, less points per picks) means that it might be possible to break a kid free. Perhaps not this year, given clubs can still go into deficit, but if there's a change to deficit banking in future (which I'd suggest seems possible even likely if AFL introduces the "2-pick maximum") then it might become more possible.

For example:

• If Eagles really wanted Dylan Patterson from the Suns academy, then bidding on Zeke Uwland at #1, then Patterson at #2 means that Suns have to pay 4933 points, while only holding 3773 points (ignoring any trades for additional points). This would give them a significant deficit (1160 points, or around pick #10 next year, where they also have another highly rated player). Given they have 3 other academy kids this year, that might give them pause to consider whether they match Patterson.

No doubt this year rules are much tougher. Suns were preparing for this as mentioned by 4tune8. I have a little doubt Suns will match bids on Uwland and Patterson. Highly unlikely Eagles have them #1 and #2. Even if they did Suns would find way.

Right now it looks like bids for Uwland and Patterson will come at pick 2 and pick 4.

The remaining Murray, Addinsall, Coulson I would be happy for other teams to get them and develop. They are no guarantees for them to make it and if they do Suns can reverse home factor down the track. All these three are big Suns supporters if you read their stories.

Next year rules will be interesting (apparently released in Dec). I bet a lot of clubs and fans will be whinging about matching rules for F/S, NGA players if they will be as hard as predicted.

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Thoughts on this mock?

Trades

• WCE Trade Pick 13 + 34 for CAR 9
• GC trade pick 15 for ESS 21 + 27
• WCE trade Pick 2 for ESS 5 + 15
• ADEL trade pick 16 + F3 for CAR 11 + F3

Pick 1 WCE Willem Duursma
Pick 2 ESS Sullivan Robey
Pick 3 RIC CDT
Pick 4 RIC Sam Grlj
Pick 5 WCE Sam Cumming
Pick 6 ESS Xavier Taylor
Pick 7 MEL Dyson sharp
Pick 8 MEL Jacob Farrow
Pick 9 WCE Lachy Dovaston
Pick 10 HAW Ollie Greeves
Pick 11 ADE Oskar Taylor
Pick 12 GWS Harley Barker
Pick 13 WB Noah Hibbens
Pick 14 WCE Aidan Schubert
Pick 15 CAR Josh Linsday
Pick 16 GEE Mitch Marsh
Pick 17 FRE Jevan Phillopou
Pick 18 HAW Latrelle picket
Pick 19 NM Max Kondogiannis
Pick 20 NM Archie Ludowyke

Why would Carlton do that last trade with Adelaide? Trading their pick 11 down to pick 16, at the cost of also downgrading their future 3rd. Is literally all downside, for no benefit

 

[THE_GUN]

Thoughts on this mock?

Trades

• WCE Trade Pick 13 + 34 for CAR 9
• GC trade pick 15 for ESS 21 + 27
• WCE trade Pick 2 for ESS 5 + 15
• ADEL trade pick 16 + F3 for CAR 11 + F3

Pick 1 WCE Willem Duursma
Pick 2 ESS Sullivan Robey
Pick 3 RIC CDT
Pick 4 RIC Sam Grlj
Pick 5 WCE Sam Cumming
Pick 6 ESS Xavier Taylor
Pick 7 MEL Dyson sharp
Pick 8 MEL Jacob Farrow
Pick 9 WCE Lachy Dovaston
Pick 10 HAW Ollie Greeves
Pick 11 ADE Oskar Taylor
Pick 12 GWS Harley Barker
Pick 13 WB Noah Hibbens
Pick 14 WCE Aidan Schubert
Pick 15 CAR Josh Linsday
Pick 16 GEE Mitch Marsh
Pick 17 FRE Jevan Phillopou
Pick 18 HAW Latrelle picket
Pick 19 NM Max Kondogiannis
Pick 20 NM Archie Ludowyke

• ADEL trade pick 16 + F3 for CAR 11 + F3
• WHY ? whats in it for the blues as they go back in both picks

 

[wceeaglesfan]

• ADEL trade pick 16 + F3 for CAR 11 + F3
• WHY ? whats in it for the blues as they go back in both picks

was meant to be future first my bad

 

[wceeaglesfan]

Why would Carlton do that last trade with Adelaide? Trading their pick 11 down to pick 16, at the cost of also downgrading their future 3rd. Is literally all downside, for no benefit

was meant to be future first

 

[jdstorm]

Interesting

Essendon would want a 30s pick back from Gold Coast in that trade.

If that’s how things are playing out I could see Essendon offering pick 6 (x taylor) + F2 to Richmond for CDT given essendons projected finish and the tougher bid matching rules I think the tigers would be interested in a late teens/early 20s pick next year to still get the player they want

 

[Keystone agony]

Interesting

Essendon would want a 30s pick back from Gold Coast in that trade.

If that’s how things are playing out I could see Essendon offering pick 6 (x taylor) + F2 to Richmond for CDT given essendons projected finish and the tougher bid matching rules I think the tigers would be interested in a late teens/early 20s pick next year to still get the player they want

36 would be included id say

I also cant find that herald sun article

 

[Jirik13]

36 would be included id say

I also cant find that herald sun article

15 + 36 = 1290
21 + 27 = 1254

No benefit for Suns.

 

[eaglevision]

15 + 36 = 1290
21 + 27 = 1254

No benefit for Suns.

It’s 18, not 15.

 

[Jirik13]

It’s 18, not 15.

Thanks.

18 + 36 = 1153. Only 101 extra points. Not much difference for Suns.

 

[eaglevision]

Thanks.

18 + 36 = 1153. Only 101 extra points.

It is but it’s only a 3 pick slide on 18, you could potentially then do a deal with North and slide to 25 and so on. GCS are the masters of points farming.

Think you guys will easily get the points and not worry if there is a deficit if you can’t.

 

[Jirik13]

It is but it’s only a 3 pick slide on 18, you could potentially then do a deal with North and slide to 25 and so on.

Think you guys will easily get the points and not worry if there is a deficit if you can’t.

Yeah, I expect Suns will be fine. Let's see what picks trades will happen.

Some deficit likely if Suns want more academy kids besides Uwland and Patterson.

I would expect 1-2 good players leave next year bringing some picks back.

 

[Keystone agony]

15 + 36 = 1290
21 + 27 = 1254

No benefit for Suns.

Yeh more so in the 18+36 chat

Still not sure how much of a benefit points wise that would be for the suns though

They will consider them after each bid

Ie 27 likely becomes 24/25, 36 becomes 33/34

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yeah, I expect Suns will be fine. Let's see what picks trades will happen.

Some deficit likely if Suns want more academy kids besides Uwland and Patterson.

I would expect 1-2 good players leave next year bringing some picks back.

If Humphrey tries to get out again, Suns probably trade him and cash in before the Tassie draft. Players usually get their way the 2nd time, and Suns wouldn't want to trade him in 2027.

 

[eaglevision]

If Humphrey tries to get out again, Suns probably trade him and cash in before the Tassie draft. Players usually get their way the 2nd time, and Suns wouldn't want to trade him in 2027.

I wouldn’t be so sure. They could have pretty much swapped him for Petracca this year and they knocked it back.

 

[Jirik13]

If Humphrey tries to get out again, Suns probably trade him and cash in before the Tassie draft. Players usually get their way the 2nd time, and Suns wouldn't want to trade him in 2027.

Possibly. Humphrey still has 3 years to go. Apparently, he joined boys in off-season training.

One tall Walter/King could leave especially if JUH makes it. Rogers apparently explored his options.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah, I expect Suns will be fine. Let's see what picks trades will happen.

Some deficit likely if Suns want more academy kids besides Uwland and Patterson.

I would expect 1-2 good players leave next year bringing some picks back.

Twomeys latest is pick 2 and 4 Bid for suns

-10%

3997 points

Im going to come up with a way to improve their points so they can look at a Jai Murray/Addinsall later

Trade 1:
Crows 16, 48, 55 For
Suns 15

Trade 2:
Ess 21, 27 For
Suns 18, 36

Trade 3
Cats 19, 40 For
Suns 16

Trade 4
Freos 20, 47 For
Suns 19, 55

Trade 5
North 25, 26, 46, 57 For
Suns 21, 29

Current: 20,24, 25, 26, 27,28, 40, 46, 47, 48, 52, 57

= 4201 Points




Pick 2 Bid (Z.Uwland)
Post Bid: 24, 25, 37, 38, 43, 44, 45, 49, 54 = 2386 Points

Pick 4 Bid (D.Paterson)
Post Bid: 40, 41, 42, 46, 51
= 851 points for (J.Murray, Coulson, Addinsall)

This how easy it is

Suns get all 5 imo

 

[txbyhull]

Possibly. Humphrey still has 3 years to go. Apparently, he joined boys in off-season training.

One tall Walter/King could leave especially if JUH makes it. Rogers apparently explored his options.

What's the deal with Rogers? Is he ever going to make it as a mid? I hate judging players based off their frame but you'd have to be bloody electric in every facet of the game to make it at 170. VFL numbers look alright with a fair few marks in late 2025

 

[txbyhull]

This how easy it is

Suns get all 5 imo

Why would half of those teams even do those trades? GC aren't going to use the pick so they're trading up for absolutely no reason

 

[Keystone agony]

Why would half of those teams even do those trades? GC aren't going to use the pick so they're trading up for absolutely no reason

So they can have a better hand?

 

[Jirik13]

What's the deal with Rogers? Is he ever going to make it as a mid? I hate judging players based off their frame but you'd have to be bloody electric in every facet of the game to make it at 170. VFL numbers look alright with a fair few marks in late 2025

I am big fan of Rogers. He was unlucky with injuries so far in his career. He is 172cm, his body looks actually great, definitely not skinny. Great kick, reading game well, evasive, got speed. Yes, I think he can run through middle like e.g., Pickett (171cm).

I guess he is impatient. He wants to play. I bet he was disappointed not playing in finals (he played in the last game of regular season). Personally, I think he should play instead of Swallow (despite his fairytale goal).

Some spots opened up in best 23. It's up to him. Provided no injuries, we should see him and Lombard to play a lot in 2026.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Possibly. Humphrey still has 3 years to go. Apparently, he joined boys in off-season training.

One tall Walter/King could leave especially if JUH makes it. Rogers apparently explored his options.

Yeah, Walters would probably request a trade, if he gets stuck in the 2s. King a chance to leave via free agency.

I dont think Rodgers fetches much if he spends another year in the reserves, but lots of options for the suns. Someone will get squeezed out.

 

[txbyhull]

So they can have a better hand?

They're mostly trading up 1 pick if not 2. For the most part, GCS having the pick before them would mean absolutely nothing to these teams?

 

[Jirik13]

Yeah, Walters would probably request a trade, if he gets stuck in the 2s. King a chance to leave via free agency.

I dont think Rodgers fetches much if he spends another year in the reserves, but lots of options for the suns. Someone will get squeezed out.

There was a reason why Suns let go Ainsworth, Budarick, Fiorini, Flanders. Spots opened up.

 

[txbyhull]

So they can have a better hand?

Trade 1:
Crows 16, 48, 55 For
Suns 15

Trading up 1 pick with a club that's not going to use it. They're not leaping over anyones pick.

Trade 2:
Ess 21, 27 For
Suns 18, 36

This one actually works.

Trade 3
Cats 19, 40 For
Suns 16

Leap frogging ESS and thats it, probably not competing for the sake players. Little reason.

Trade 4
Freos 20, 47 For
Suns 19, 55

Depends on plans for Freo's second pick but this is at least netting them something unlike the other ones.

Trade 5
North 25, 26, 46, 57 For
Suns 21, 29

North will be using 3 picks so I don't think this works. They'd probably rather a KPF/KPD double and 46 than moving up for probably the same KPF and losing out on Thredgold to WBD