Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Pablito]

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien vibes from Josh Lindsay?

Yep he worries me a little. Not that quick and not nearly as strong endurance as LOB.

Except for his kicking i dont see many AFL traits. I've done a bit of a 180 on him. Rated him highly earlier this year. But the more I see the more I get cold feet.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien vibes from Josh Lindsay?

A little bit.

My biggest concern is that at the elite level, he is very vulnerable to being exploited as a mismatch in the backline.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien vibes from Josh Lindsay?

Not really for me. He's a very different prospect to LoB. LoB and Lindsay's kicking were/are their main weapons but Obrien's other weapon was his outside run and endurance whereas Lindsay's is his smarts and versatility. In terms of their ability to win contests I'd say it's not really close in Lindsay's favour, it's just not his strength like it is for a Dyson Sharp type.

When he's played on ball Lindsay has still been able to accumulate and win his share of contested ball, but he lacks the athletic ability to find space and get himself clear to use his left peg to it's best effect.

I also think one of LoB's biggest weaknesses was his actual frame. Even after trying his best to bulk up over a few years he was still as skinny as a rake. Lindsay has a much more robust build at a young age.

 

[gandaal]

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien vibes from Josh Lindsay?

Perhaps a little harsh. Josh does need to be fed but if you are after a floating half back who just runs all day hitting targets then he's your guy.

I get why he's dropping behind others who are perhaps more flexible but he's still got a lot of AFL attributes. He's just not going to be your star player. He'd be an upgrade on current day Saad.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Yep he worries me a little. Not that quick and not nearly as strong endurance as LOB.

Except for his kicking i dont see many AFL traits. I've done a bit of a 180 on him. Rated him highly earlier this year. But the more I see the more I get cold feet.

I have a feeling his ceiling is Massimo D’Ambrosio type, not so much Hayden Young.

 

[Blue and Silver]

I have a feeling his ceiling is Massimo D’Ambrosio type, not so much Hayden Young.

Good shout.

You are drafting a role player with Lindsay

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I have a feeling his ceiling is Massimo D’Ambrosio type, not so much Hayden Young.

D'Ambrosio is a good shout. I was going to say Newman but a touch shorter.

Pretty much gets by on game sense and his smarts but imo a more talented kick. Just as one sided as Noodles too.

 

[Blue and Silver]

D'Ambrosio is a good shout. I was going to say Newman but a touch shorter.

Pretty much gets by on game sense and his smarts but imo a more talented kick. Just as one sided as Noodles too.

Newman is a very able defender. If Lindsay can add a strong defensive edge he'll be great.

 

[gandaal]

Do you spend a first rounder on 18 year old Newman?

I'm not sure I would. Half back is where you send failed midfielders or second/third rounders.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien vibes from Josh Lindsay?

Kind of reminds me of Archie Roberts in his draft year. Made All-Australian in the U18's at half back, bewtiful left peg on him, and ended up sliding all the way to pick 54.

Not saying Lindsay will drift that far, but similar vibe.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Newman is a very able defender. If Lindsay can add a strong defensive edge he'll be great.

I think Lindsay's defensive work is underrated, he's quite strong in the air and uses his body well in contests. It's always a bit hard to tell at CTL though, defence is really a secondary objective of 90% of the players out there. Hence why a player like Dean who actually plays accountable footy gets such a good wrap.

You also don't know how they'll perform against the genuine top tier forwards at AFL level who are vastly different athletes to the kids they vs at 18s level. It's sink or swim for many of them.

Do you spend a first rounder on 18 year old Newman?

I'm not sure I would.

If we were getting the overall career of Newman for that price? Probably not...

But if we're getting 10+ years of Nic Newman 2022 onwards style performances I'd take that in a heartbeat in this draft.

 

[gandaal]

They like players with a bit of an edge at Richmond. Targeting Robey, Taylor and Grlj who are not afraid to give it to their opponents.

I like him but I'm not sure a third tall like Taylor goes this high in other drafts. However he's got a bit of see you next Tuesday about him. Love that. Uses the ball well. Smart player who plays with confidence. I think he'll play a lot of AFL footy.

 

[Blue and Silver]

They like players with a bit of an edge at Richmond. Targeting Robey, Taylor and Grlj who are not afraid to give it to their opponents.

I like him but I'm not sure a third tall like Taylor goes this high in other drafts. However he's got a bit of see you next Tuesday about him. Love that. Uses the ball well. Smart player who plays with confidence. I think he'll play a lot of AFL footy.

Bit of Vlaustin?

 

[gandaal]

Bit of Vlaustin?

Vlaustin 2.0

 

[Stamos]

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Totally agree. Love Cal.

Honest question:

Who wins a fight between Cal Twomey and Gerard Whateley?

 

[carlton_99]

Honest question:

Who wins a fight between Cal Twomey and Gerard Whateley?

Cal seems scrappy. Think he gets up

 

[gandaal]

Honest question:

Who wins a fight between Cal Twomey and Gerard Whateley?

No idea, but I do know that I'd pay money to see it.

 

[Bletch]

We're now down to maximum of 3 players at the national draft, with HOK having been upgraded. We'll still take 4 picks into the draft though (one gets used by the upgrade).

 

[bradfisher14]

We're now down to maximum of 3 players at the national draft, with HOK having been upgraded. We'll still take 4 picks into the draft though (one gets used by the upgrade).

Does this mean we are limited to 1 possible SSP signing as things stand? So, we're definitely taking a player at the ND in addition to Dean and Ison?

 

[marcmurphy3]

Does this mean we are limited to 1 possible SSP signing as things stand? So, we're definitely taking a player at the ND in addition to Dean and Ison?

We can still pass and leave a spot open. We'd just want to take all 4 picks to the draft for points purpises.

 

[Bletch]

Does this mean we are limited to 1 possible SSP signing as things stand? So, we're definitely taking a player at the ND in addition to Dean and Ison?

No, we still have 4 total list spots open, but can only take a maximum of 3 picks at the national draft if we want to stay at 36/6/2 which is more than likely. We could use all 4 and end up at 37/5/2, but that won't happen.

We can take just Dean and Ison, and will have two spots open to use at the Rookie draft or save for the SSP. But to do that we'd need to elevate another player from the Rookie list to the senior list (e.g. Lord). Or we could take a DFA.

Ultimately, we need to add 3 more players to the senior list (after O'Keeffe). Two of those will be Dean and Ison. The other could be a 3rd draft pick, a DFA or another upgraded rookie.

 

[KnobHead]

But Twomey has runs on the board with Phantom Drafts...his top 30 the week before the draft is accurate

last 2 or 3 years have checked his predicted draft to the actual draft. He always nails the top 10 to 15, then is pretty good at predicting 15 to 30.

Twomey does his homework, can’t discount what he says as if clubs are playing him.

 

[Stamos]

We're now down to maximum of 3 players at the national draft, with HOK having been upgraded. We'll still take 4 picks into the draft though (one gets used by the upgrade).

Announced?
Always made sense that this was the way we were going to go.

 

[Jimmae]

Going through all the calculations using Pommy's resource, surprisingly think we'd be best served trading with GCS for their two firsts + 2nds.

15 + 18 + 24 + 36 = 2747 points
9 + 11 + 43 = 2744 points

Not much of a difference in terms of points, but with how the pick sliding system works we'd be looking at very different outcomes after a bid depending on which picks we held and where it came.



Hypothetically a Dean bid that came at pick 3 (the worst case that seems to be a chance according to Twomey)

With our current picks we'd be left with 26 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 3.
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 35 + 53 after the bid at 3.

We'd likely be able to use 22 to pick up a slider such as Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, Marsh, Barker etc and 35 + 53 on points for Ison.



If the Dean bid came in at a more reasonable pick 7...

With our current picks we'd be left with 18 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 7
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 32 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 7

We'd likely be able to package up 22 + 32 to get back into the 1st round for Lindsay, Dovaston or Pickett in the teens. 33 + 49 for Ison. Effectively get an extra pick in the 30s to use for a 4 pick slide from 18 - 22.



If the Dean bid slid to the Dees at pick 10

With our current picks we'd be left with 14 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 10
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 23 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 10

At first glance it looks like a downgrade with 14 vs 22 but 38 + 49 is fairly late that it would risk us going into deficit next year matching a bid on Ison if a bid came a bit earlier. We'd almost definitely be able to pick up two sliders with 22 and 23 or trade back into the first round with 300 extra points compared to pick 14 and still have 33 + 49 for Ison.



Anyway, food for thought. Suns wouldn't be impacted as they'd have the same amount of points and the Uwland and Patterson bids are both almost certainly coming in the top 3-5. Probably be able to trade 9 + 11 for more points from other clubs where as we'd like 15 + 18 as they keep us in the draft and a chance at a player we're after.

Suns would want more points out of that initial trade, not 3 less. They probably wouldn't even entertain the conversation for less than 150, or are you calculating in the pick movement after the first GC bid? Seems minimal, not sure they'd go with it.

I'd rather figure out a trade with 11 solely, and be in position to spring a trade with Richmond if they're confident on Grlj going past Melbourne.

likely a defensive KPP cover

We need KPF cover more, we can throw taller medium defenders at the defensive issue, and then there's Young.

None of our backup key forwards have anything resembling the class of McKay.

I was struggling to find a good comparison for him when I was talking about him the other day… maybe someone like prime Andrew Lovett or Lewis Jetta .... a bit of Andrew Gaff?

Someone mentioned Kade Simpson once. Not far from it. More agile in contests than Kade.

Andrew McGrath, who I do not rate higher than Simpson or Gaff.

Finding it hard to gauge this year's key forward prospects.

Convention has Schubert first (unless you count CDT) but what are people's rankings on them?

In very rough order

Schubert
Marsh
Emmett
McCarthy
Ludowyke
Hetherton

With the roughies being

Curtin
Ah Mu
Mckinnon

I don't rate Schubert, he's got to build up so much physically and his kicking needs serious work. I don't think he'll gain mobility either, if anything it might go backwards, or he'll never bulk up much.

I can see him switching to defence to have more success. Marsh and Ludowyke are proper KPF talent, though obviously very different from each other.

Does anyone else get Lochie O'Brien vibes from Josh Lindsay?

More like Xavier Lindsay from last year. Both are overvalued, both will go ok in defence in the right system.

We're now down to maximum of 3 players at the national draft, with HOK having been upgraded. We'll still take 4 picks into the draft though (one gets used by the upgrade).

No, we still have 4 total list spots open, but can only take a maximum of 3 picks at the national draft if we want to stay at 36/6/2 which is more than likely. We could use all 4 and end up at 37/5/2, but that won't happen.

We can take just Dean and Ison, and will have two spots open to use at the Rookie draft or save for the SSP. But to do that we'd need to elevate another player from the Rookie list to the senior list (e.g. Lord). Or we could take a DFA.

Ultimately, we need to add 3 more players to the senior list (after O'Keeffe). Two of those will be Dean and Ison. The other could be a 3rd draft pick, a DFA or another upgraded rookie.

We always looked like we were going to take 4 picks in and acquire 3 players once the initial trade period ended. Once the list lodgement dates came and went that was set in stone.

This changes nothing, and the gauntlet has been thrown down to Hollands, but there's so many good DFA options, so from that perspective I'm disappointed, particularly if Boyd doesn't seriously step up through the pre-season.