Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Is it just me, or does Twomey turn into Essendon’s unofficial media mouthpiece every trade and draft period?

 

[bradfisher14]

Name one?

Cowan

 

[Blue and Silver]

Name one?

Matt Carroll

 

[Jimmae]

Is it just me, or does Twomey turn into Essendon’s unofficial media mouthpiece every trade and draft period?

It's definitely something that's crept into his content as the years have gone on.

As if there weren't enough parochial Essendon fans in the AFL media already

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Name one?

Boyd
O'Farrell
Cincotta (pre hip injury)
Carroll
Lord

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Is it just me, or does Twomey turn into Essendon’s unofficial media mouthpiece every trade and draft period?

9 + 2027 1st for 2026 1st + 30?

I'd do that.

 

[marcmurphy3]

9 + 2027 1st for 2026 1st + 30?

I'd do that.

Me too.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Name one?

Apart from those already listed

Frank the Tank
Cooper Lord
Hudson O'Keefe
Billy Wilson (TBC)
Flynn Young (TBC)

 

[I bleed Blue]

6D Chess alright!! I think we've got a big suprise up our sleeve ....

"With Pick #9 Carlton have elected to Pass"

Never let them know your next move!

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Apart from those already listed

Frank the Tank
Cooper Lord
Hudson O'Keefe
Billy Wilson (TBC)
Flynn Young (TBC)

Jumping the gun on all of those...

 

[ferrisb]

Just like the cold November Rain, the draft reminds us - nothing lasts forever, not even that prospect’s availability

Being a Carlton supporter be like:

We've been through this such a long long time
Just tryin' to kill the pain.... ooh yeah

 

[GT619]

has anyone checked pommys latest mock draft tonight

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Going through all the calculations using Pommy's resource, surprisingly think we'd be best served trading with GCS for their two firsts + 2nds.

15 + 18 + 24 + 36 = 2747 points
9 + 11 + 43 = 2744 points

Not much of a difference in terms of points, but with how the pick sliding system works we'd be looking at very different outcomes after a bid depending on which picks we held and where it came.



Hypothetically a Dean bid that came at pick 3 (the worst case that seems to be a chance according to Twomey)

With our current picks we'd be left with 26 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 3.
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 35 + 53 after the bid at 3.

We'd likely be able to use 22 to pick up a slider such as Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, Marsh, Barker etc and 35 + 53 on points for Ison.



If the Dean bid came in at a more reasonable pick 7...

With our current picks we'd be left with 18 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 7
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 32 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 7

We'd likely be able to package up 22 + 32 to get back into the 1st round for Lindsay, Dovaston or Pickett in the teens. 33 + 49 for Ison. Effectively get an extra pick in the 30s to use for a 4 pick slide from 18 - 22.



If the Dean bid slid to the Dees at pick 10

With our current picks we'd be left with 14 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 10
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 23 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 10

At first glance it looks like a downgrade with 14 vs 22 but 38 + 49 is fairly late that it would risk us going into deficit next year matching a bid on Ison if a bid came a bit earlier. We'd almost definitely be able to pick up two sliders with 22 and 23 or trade back into the first round with 300 extra points compared to pick 14 and still have 33 + 49 for Ison.



Anyway, food for thought. Suns wouldn't be impacted as they'd have the same amount of points and the Uwland and Patterson bids are both almost certainly coming in the top 3-5. Probably be able to trade 9 + 11 for more points from other clubs where as we'd like 15 + 18 as they keep us in the draft and a chance at a player we're after.

 

[BlueTongue]

It's definitely something that's crept into his content as the years have gone on.

As if there weren't enough parochial Essendon fans in the AFL media already

Is Riley Beverage a Blues man? I thought I saw him doing an interview with one of the new Trade Recruits at PP

 

[carlton_99]

Is Riley Beverage a Blues man? I thought I saw him doing an interview with one of the new Trade Recruits at PP

Yep Beveridge is a Blues fan

 

[Stamos]

Is Riley Beverage a Blues man? I thought I saw him doing an interview with one of the new Trade Recruits at PP

Yes

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Going through all the calculations using Pommy's resource, surprisingly think we'd be best served trading with GCS for their two firsts + 2nds.

15 + 18 + 24 + 36 = 2747 points
9 + 11 + 43 = 2744 points

Not much of a difference in terms of points, but with how the pick sliding system works we'd be looking at very different outcomes after a bid depending on which picks we held and where it came.



Hypothetically a Dean bid that came at pick 3 (the worst case that seems to be a chance according to Twomey)

With our current picks we'd be left with 26 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 3.
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 35 + 53 after the bid at 3.

We'd likely be able to use 22 to pick up a slider such as Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, Marsh, Barker etc and 35 + 53 on points for Ison. 38 + 48



If the Dean bid came in at a more reasonable pick 7...

With our current picks we'd be left with 18 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 7
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 32 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 7

We'd likely be able to package up 22 + 32 to get back into the 1st round for Lindsay, Dovaston or Pickett in the teens. 33 + 49 for Ison. Effectively get an extra pick in the 30s to use for a 4 pick slide from 18 - 22.



If the Dean bid slid to the Dees at pick 10

With our current picks we'd be left with 14 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 10
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 23 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 10

At first glance it looks like a downgrade with 14 vs 22 but 38 + 49 is fairly late that it would risk us going into deficit next year matching a bid on Ison if a bid came a bit earlier. We'd almost definitely be able to pick up two sliders with 22 and 23 or trade back into the first round with 300 extra points compared to pick 14 and still have 33 + 49 for Ison.



Anyway, food for thought. Suns wouldn't be impacted as they'd have the same amount of points and the Uwland and Patterson bids are both almost certainly coming in the top 3-5. Probably be able to trade 9 + 11 for more points from other clubs where as we'd like 15 + 18 as they keep us in the draft and a chance at a player we're after.

 

[VinegarStrokes]

It would depend on when the bid comes, and what we can do with our second pick (currently 11).
If there are no F1 offers for either pick, we could well be better off just keeping them, and having 9 take the bulk of he points hit to match the bid. Our second pick would likely slide, but it will still be higher than if we did your proposed trade.

To take 13 + 34 (which may well be our best option) we’d essentially be giving up on the option of taking another player before Ison.

Makes sense thanks for reasoning.

 

[GT619]

Going through all the calculations using Pommy's resource, surprisingly think we'd be best served trading with GCS for their two firsts + 2nds.

15 + 18 + 24 + 36 = 2747 points
9 + 11 + 43 = 2744 points

Not much of a difference in terms of points, but with how the pick sliding system works we'd be looking at very different outcomes after a bid depending on which picks we held and where it came.



Hypothetically a Dean bid that came at pick 3 (the worst case that seems to be a chance according to Twomey)

With our current picks we'd be left with 26 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 3.
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 35 + 53 after the bid at 3.

We'd likely be able to use 22 to pick up a slider such as Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, Marsh, Barker etc and 35 + 53 on points for Ison.



If the Dean bid came in at a more reasonable pick 7...

With our current picks we'd be left with 18 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 7
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 32 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 7

We'd likely be able to package up 22 + 32 to get back into the 1st round for Lindsay, Dovaston or Pickett in the teens. 33 + 49 for Ison. Effectively get an extra pick in the 30s to use for a 4 pick slide from 18 - 22.



If the Dean bid slid to the Dees at pick 10

With our current picks we'd be left with 14 + 38 + 49 after a bid at 10
If we trade with GCS we'd be left with 22 + 23 + 33 + 49 after a bid at 10

At first glance it looks like a downgrade with 14 vs 22 but 38 + 49 is fairly late that it would risk us going into deficit next year matching a bid on Ison if a bid came a bit earlier. We'd almost definitely be able to pick up two sliders with 22 and 23 or trade back into the first round with 300 extra points compared to pick 14 and still have 33 + 49 for Ison.



Anyway, food for thought. Suns wouldn't be impacted as they'd have the same amount of points and the Uwland and Patterson bids are both almost certainly coming in the top 3-5. Probably be able to trade 9 + 11 for more points from other clubs where as we'd like 15 + 18 as they keep us in the draft and a chance at a player we're after.

thoughts on jevan poo

 

[Coona Blues]

thoughts on jevan poo

In a group of players that project plenty of upside.

Just presents plenty of figjam as well from all reports and suggestions the old man gives off Docic vibes.

(If the reports of Elijah being promised a spot if he meets criteria are correct, the chances are we just take Dean and Ison, leaving a spot for Elijah and likely a defensive KPP cover. Question is if we leave a main list spot for Lij or meet requirements by promoting rookie(s). If a chance comes to add points/picks in 2026, think we take it)

 

[mrkyuss]

Hope everyone now might realise how hard it is to make deals for top 10 picks, with clubs that want to screw you.
most clubs aren’t interested in assisting others to get better and more importantly play nice.
Getting points by going back is easier to deal than forward!!!!
We will get screwed and even more so when the rules are changed for FS picks.

Why Austin doing “nice deals “ for the last few years is a waste of time.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

thoughts on jevan poo

Neither here nor there. Don't think he's an outstanding prospect athletically or in terms of skill but he's definitely a capable player.

I would rather others in the same range as I think he and his brother are a bit too arrogant and self centered for their own good.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I asked chatgpt what Carlton should do with pick 9 and 11.

• 
  
• Use Pick 9 to match for Harry Dean (father-son).
• 
  
• Use Pick 11 to select another first-round talent, ideally addressing tall forward or dynamic half-back/wing need.
• 
  
• If during pre-draft/trade negotiations a high value deal emerges (for either pick), consider trading Pick 11 (rather than Pick 9) for future first-round pick(s) + extra picks, provided the second-round talent still available is strong.
• 
  
• Maintain flexibility for the 2026/2027 drafts using the extra picks/future firsts to pursue more club-tied talent.

Maybe AI is coming for Austin's job?

 

[JJBagger]

Neither here nor there. Don't think he's an outstanding prospect athletically or in terms of skill but he's definitely a capable player.

I would rather others in the same range as I think he and his brother are a bit too arrogant and self centered for their own good.

I have Jevon slipping down into the 20’s purely for this reason. Didn’t rate Mattaes in his draft year as highly as others for the same reason. Their confidence reeks of self service rather than wanting team success

 

[josephone]

Dean is one of the best prospects we've had in a long time. We should bid on wherever he falls and be happy for it.

Not just because he's a good player. But he's been with the team for the last month. He's got the gear, he's got a locker. He spent weeks with the team earlier this season. He's got an enormous head start on almost every other first year player. Ison is a similar story.

It's an enormous piece of luck that's just fallen into our laps and we should be happy for it. If we can pick up another guy then that's just icing on the cake.