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Analysis 2025 Draft watch
- Thread starter WalshistheGOAT
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Bletch
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- Dec 8, 2020
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CT has posted it.
Cheers, just saw in the LM thread.
![C4[2]Yo`DooR](https://www.bigfootycontent.com/avatars/m/21/21849.jpg?1742370429){kind=avatar}
- Dec 18, 2005
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What’s the likelihood of HOF moving onto the LTI?
Blue and Silver
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You'd think slim, unless there is a major setback, until at least the mid-season draft.
You want incentive for the kid through a long tough rehab.
Bletch
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Requires club doctors to sign-off on his injury as likely season-ending.
It's the "Inactive List" now, LTI hasn't been used since rookies have been allowed to play senior footy.
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Suns have no reason to take the deal if they'd be leaving pick 9 and 11 as is or their current hand for matching purposes, but they may think they'll have an easier time trading our picks 9 + 11 for more draft points than they would 15 + 18. They won't be looking at picking up a player outside their academy so where the picks land post bids mean little to them, especially given they'll almost certainly be going into deficit with Uwland and Patterson so highly rated.
For us it would be beneficial holding 15 + 18 + 24 + 36 over our current hand as it would give us better returns and flexibility post bid.
Could be a mutually beneficial trade despite being almost dead even in terms of draft points.
circusdevil
Team Captain
Football
Yeah I can see why Dyson is dropping out of the top 10. He needs to go to a club that needs someone who just dives under packs and distributes. Cumming is a better prospect.
Bletch
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Wow, AFL have granted Port access to Dougie Cochrane. Didn't think they were going to.
May now see the top 2 picks next year off the table.
May now see the top 2 picks next year off the table.
Bletch
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Means Port will be hunting more 2026 1st round picks. Makes it harder for us to secure another.
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I think the AFL are going to make it very tough to match a bid on either. Having the top 2 picks off the board is not a good look, considering the existing concerns over NGA/Fatherson. I think people are under estimating how hard it could be for us to match a bid.
Also, Cochrane being NGA just shows what a joke the system is.
It won't, if youre talking about trading out of this years draft. Port have nothing to trade.
The AFL have the chance to do the funniest thing.
"New Draft Rules: NGA bids can't be matched in top 10 in 2026"
"New Draft Rules: NGA bids can't be matched in top 10 in 2026"
- Oct 4, 2015
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Cochrane news might be good for us...
He will likely be bid on before Cody.
Port have to pay some high picks to match...
So let's say we have pick 7 + 14 next year.
Port have say 4 + 10
Well, then that drops our picks to 6 + 12 more than enough for a discounted pick 1 bid... and if the bid for Cody comes at pick 3 (likely given how unlikely it is an NGA or F/S will be bid on with pick 1) and the DVI doesn't change, nor does the 10% discount... then 6 + 12 will give us the ability to match the bid and get pick 18 back and that 18 might become 17 because we're consuming pick 12 to match the bid... we'll essentially end up with being able to select another first round pick next year.
He will likely be bid on before Cody.
Port have to pay some high picks to match...
So let's say we have pick 7 + 14 next year.
Port have say 4 + 10
Well, then that drops our picks to 6 + 12 more than enough for a discounted pick 1 bid... and if the bid for Cody comes at pick 3 (likely given how unlikely it is an NGA or F/S will be bid on with pick 1) and the DVI doesn't change, nor does the 10% discount... then 6 + 12 will give us the ability to match the bid and get pick 18 back and that 18 might become 17 because we're consuming pick 12 to match the bid... we'll essentially end up with being able to select another first round pick next year.
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I think it’s good news too.
But I also think it may have a negative side too given Port will now be hunting more picks in the same way we are, so it’s good we got the jump on them with Sydney’s first.
Hope so. I took it as 'not ideal' given the trend is usually the best 'open market' player is taken at 1. With Cochrane on the open market he was more likely to be selected at #1 regardless of if Walker had surpassed him next year. Now they're both 'tied' it might be a case of just bidding on either one of them as the number #1.
sorry, that's a long winded way of saying Walker was more unlikely to be bid on at #1 with Cochrane on the open market. Now, I'm not so sure...
That was my view. If Cochrane was available and comparable to Cody, I think he gets taken at 1, even if the club rated Cody slightly higher. Now both are off the table, either could attract a bid at 1.
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If we think we'll need extra to get Cody we need to grab another 2026 1st now as insurance. We'll get absolutely reemed if we have to trade up next year.
- Oct 4, 2015
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They don't have much to hunt with though...
Nothing this year, 2027 1sts aren't really going to cut it either, in fact, they'd want to stock up on those too given they've got more coming in 2027 draft...
Might have to let Butters go to make it all happen for them... and given there's no chance we'll be trading our 2026 picks as we're 100% committing to Cody... we're not going to be getting Butters.
- Oct 4, 2015
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No one is going to bid on a player with pick 1.
Whoever they pick at #1 gets $10k bonus. They will want that to go to a player at their club, not somewhere else.
They'll also want the player they pick with #1 to feel like he was their guy. Not give him a hollow feeling like they would have preferred someone else.
ferrisb
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Crystal ball stuff, but I can see
1 - 'Open pick'
2 - Cochrane
3 - Walker
It's possible another 1-2 players surge up the boards next year too.
If Cochrane wasn't NGA, he might go @ 1 and Walker @ 2. So I think this works in our favour.
I think that's very wishful thinking. You can demolish an opponent's draft hand, by bidding at 1. That's big incentive for an opposition club. Much more incentive than getting your draftee an extra 10k.
If Cochrane and Cody are standouts one of them will get the bid. Also, depending on what they do with the bidding system, whoever has top pick could actually grab either player, if the club tied to them can't match.
Could be similar to us with Curnow this year. They will huff and puff about not wanting to let Butters go but ultimately need him to leave in order to get Cochrane. Does weaken their negotiating position slightly.
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