Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[BlueTongue]

He's talented, but he tends to go missing

Powerful unit but disposal by foot looks pretty suspect

 

[agro]

Cmon uncle Nick, get me something good

 

[ESKIE]

Can someone explain to me why west coast would bid on Harry Dean

 

[Big Delut]

That's not at all how I remembered it I watched the draft because I had some idea but no confirmation on any of our picks or where Ben might be bid on. Personally I think your full of it to say you knew we would take Jagga and hof unless your gullible enough to believe speculation as fact

As soon as North were closely linked with FOS it was considered just about a guarantee we'd draft Jagga which happened at least a week before the draft.
In regards to HOF it clearly wasn't guaranteed but considering how much our interest had been spoken about for months I fully expected us to select him if he got through to our pick.
If you didn't believe that information prior to the draft then fair enough, that's your call. I struggle to see how finding the information credible prior to the draft makes me full of it or gullible though. Particularly given what unfolded. How is someone believing information which ended up being proven accurate gullible? That comment is perplexing to me.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Tonight will be boring as bat shit
We already know who we are getting
The whole draft is boring and drawn out like everything else AFL

Actually not true. Surely there is a fair bit of interest for us as to whether Geelong bid on Ison tonight. If not we get nice pick in. Would also be nice if * somehow manage to wrangle West Coast's pick 2 and the bid for Dean goes down the order a bit. That would be a good outcome.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Can someone explain to me why west coast would bid on Harry Dean

They pretty much have no key defenders of note (Charlie generally kicks a bag on them). He would be a perfect fit for them. Would be a huge flight risk though.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Tonight will be boring as bat shit
We already know who we are getting
The whole draft is boring and drawn out like everything else AFL

Yet not as boring as Lollingwoods' night - that's something to hold onto!

 

[Jimmae]

Frustrating that it seems (via Twomey phantom) that our 9 & 11 will be used for Dovaston and Pickett by Ess & Nth

Not really, I think it reflects small forwards being the new hotness, and they're reaching for them.

Dovaston is Nick Watson while sliding close to Murphy Reid athleticism, at least in terms of straight line speed.

Pickett is a reach at 15,. but they're not the only ones thinking about it.

Is our best outcome from here that Essendon are able to prise 2 from WCE?

It might take 5 & 6, keeping 9 for themselves

No, there's plenty of better options, including ducking aiding Essendon in that trade.

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 51 and 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

72 doesn't get created in that scenario, nor does it carry any points in 2025.

I'd take Noah Hibbon Hargraves if he happens to fall....seems he is.... was rated within the top 12 at the beginning of the year. Injuries and illness have left his bottom age year almost better than his top age year

He's falling for the same reason Schubert and Greeves: the scouts have found some stuff on background, but I'd be looking at him and Greeves for sure.

 

[ctwenty1]

Yet not as boring as Lollingwoods' night - that's something to hold onto!

Are they even rocking up tonight?

 

[Red_man2008]

bear with me

9 to west coast for 13 & 34 or 41
11 to essendon for 21 & 27
13 to north for 25 & F2
43 & 54 come along for the ride with their combined 198 points

we end up with 2408 points which covers a bid for harry at 5 and ison at 15.... - which would really mean an extra mid 20s pick as well as the noirth f2

The way the afl site is running at the moment the north and bombers deals have actually already happened.

 

[Bletch]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 45 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 51 and 74.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 74 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 27, 38, 47, 71 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 27 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 41. We then have 41, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 41 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

With the extra GC trade with WB, there's a few small changes above. End result - we have 41, 47, 71 after matching Ison.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Are they even rocking up tonight?

Nope - they're investing their night discussing their hot-moves surrounding pick 45...do they trade up to 42?

It's perplexing!

 

[Red_man2008]

I reckon we use norths future second to get back into the first round after bids tonight.

 

[BlueTongue]

...

SPOILER ALERT: Found Him!

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Can someone explain to me why west coast would bid on Harry Dean

Kid can seriously play

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Kid can seriously play

He's a high quality, low risk, 10 + year CHB. What's not to love?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

So who did we draft?

 

[Gavstar]

I reckon we use norths future second to get back into the first round after bids tonight.

Agresta sounded like he wanted to bank it for next years draft (Cody Walker)

 

[AB_Blue]

Can someone explain to me why west coast would bid on Harry Dean

Keeping us honest ?

We have done the same in the past

 

[ctwenty1]

The way the afl site is running at the moment the north and bombers deals have actually already happened.

maybe they already have? when does the window officially open?

 

[GT619]

Can someone explain to me why west coast would bid on Harry Dean

owies and pick 3 from last year

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Can someone explain to me why west coast would bid on Harry Dean

Because they’re a pack of anti-semites.

There. I said it.

 

[RPCB]

Because they’re a pack of anti-semites.

There. I said it.

Because WC will get a cookie from the Carlton hating asshats at AFL house if they screw us over. That extends to any other club.

 

[agro]

Because they’re a pack of anti-semites.

There. I said it.

 

[ESKIE]

I get the picture thanks gurus