Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[bzparkes]

Nope, not at all.

I don't know either.

But I do know Collingwood have a strong record of developing players and recruiting for needs, so I'm nowhere near as pessimistic as others on here, who would have blown up the joint 5 years ago, and missed the 2023 flag (but then we MIGHT be reasonable again in 2028...)

The past decade has proven that Colling are, in fact, incapable of drafting and developing players. You may be able to recruit for 'needs', but right now you need to replace 3x 35+ year old players and have no assets to do so.

 

[Trav 20]

And we traded in D. Cameron,Lipinski,Schulz,Hill,McCstay,Frampton,Mitchell,Perryman,Houston,Membrey.
Only a complete nuffie would think that there is only one way to do things.

And only complete nuffies can't read. You support the right club.

I said, ''The draft isn't the total panacea in football list builds''.

Do you think you're the only club trading in B graders ?

You need the balance of the draft and trades. You don't have it and will pay the price. Enjoy.

 

[HeathySure]

Your most important players came via the draft FFS. Most clueless thing in this thread anyone's said.

Tbe teams with the most high draft picks this century are Blues, Norf, Demons Gold Coast and GWS, only the demons won a flag and they should still be up there except of the teams off field mismanagement and will wallow in the depths of despair for years to come again.

The most successful teams bottomed out at the right time and got freaks and have stayed up by free agency and canny recruiting and excellent coaching.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

And only complete nuffies can't read. You support the right club.

I said, ''The draft isn't the total panacea in football list builds''.

Do you think you're the only club trading in B graders ?

You need the balance of the draft and trades. You don't have it and will pay the price. Enjoy.

Lol, we'll be fine

Got the best player in the world, everyone wants to play with him

We're a destination club, no one can take us down

 

[HeathySure]

Yes exactly, they were drafted before your last flag 15 years ago, that's the exact issue. They're still amongst your most important players, with nothing coming beneath them.

Where are you magically going to find this 'youth' from when your coach keeps trading out of the first round?

Cant trade for them, because you don't have the currency.

Cant draft them because you don't have the picks.

Need to wait until free agency but other clubs will look far more appealing with their list demographic by then.

Where's the list replenishment actually going to come from?

We finished 17th, paid 2 All Australians and a rising star to play somewhere else. gave away pick 1 and won a flag 3 years later

 

[bzparkes]

Tbe teams with the most high draft picks this century are Blues, Norf, Demons Gold Coast and GWS, only the demons won a flag and they should still be up there except of the teams off field mismanagement and will wallow in the depths of despair for years to come again.

The most successful teams bottomed out at the right time and got freaks and have stayed up by free agency and canny recruiting and excellent coaching.

Who is replacing Sidebottom, Pendlebury and Howe?

West Coast supporters were calling for the club to rejuvenate the midfield in 2017 and instead, they took Brander and Allen as their first 2 picks before Geelong swooped on Kelly, who we would've taken with the Allen pick if he weren't there.

The midfield was then failed to be addressed properly until 2023, when we picked Reid.

That's how long it took to find an A grade midfielder in the draft. Who was taken at pick 1.

Being ignorant/arrogant and assuming it'll work out because it's Collingwood is how a club ends up like WCE.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Can all the naysayers tell us who out of the following won't make it at AFL level?

DiMattia
Allan
Parker
Steele
Jiath
West
Harrison
Steene
Hayes
Howe
Anderson

I haven't listed our 18 year old draftees from this year.

Because we haven't seen enough of any of them to make a determination either way whilst we've been developing them in the VFL (as all strong clubs do), and if we get a handful of the above make the grade (including our draftees from this year) we're in good shape.

Not a naysayer but here is my take.

Demattia 10% chance. Won't make it. Still young so he could improve but looks very single positioned, 1 sided and has poor disposal

Allan is 50/50. Still needs to improve to be a regular but should be given an opportunity this year. Has lots of AFL traits but doesn't show enough.

Parker 60/40 will probably play 50 games plus but he is no certainty. Looks hard at it and can play a role. He isn't big or fast but is a smart footballer imo.

Steele 70/30 Mature player with good skills, elite endurance and quick movement and evasion. Should make it imo and was favoured on the wing late season.

Jiath 25/75 looks good at VFL level but with an abundance of back flankers will find it hard to break in unless he physically matures rapidly. Looks bigger bodied this preseason so maybe he will rapidly improve.

West 50/50 Probably our most talked up young player. Showed some really nice marking at VFL but needs to show something at AFL to move the gadge.

Harrison 50/50 has showed a bit at AFL level. Is fast, duel sided and knows how to crumb a goal. The ACL injury was cruel but is back so hopefully he can get back to where he was in 2023/4.

Steene 10/90 won't make it. Just not big or strong enough to ruck and not crafty enough as a forward. Nice Contested marker but who knows at AFL level.

Hayes 25/75 Shows some skills and talent even at AFL with his limited games. But he just doesn't look big or strong enough. Did come back looking stronger this year so maybe.

Howes no chance imo.

Anderson ??? Can't say yet.

 

[bzparkes]

We finished 17th, paid 2 All Australians and a rising star to play somewhere else. gave away pick 1 and won a flag 3 years later

Only gave away pick one because your club lucked out with Naicos, so could afford to. You also got rid of those guys due to horrific list management, which is my entire point.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Who is replacing Sidebottom, Pendlebury and Howe?

None of them have been stars for years. They still play good games generally. They have already been replaced in a lot of ways by players like Steene, Alan, Frampton, McInnes, Long and Sullivan.

 

[Fadge]

How do they miss the flag?

No drafted player contributed to it, neither did any player after that time who was traded in for a first rounder, which was zero by the way.

Unless you think Jack Ginnivan's 7 disposals and one behind was the difference between Collingwood winning and losing in 2023, of course.

Huh?

Under your regime, we go to the draft and don't bring in
Hill - Norm Smith Medallist
McStay - crucial in close Qualifying and Preliminary Finals
Mitchell - 4th in our b&f in 2023 and one of our best on Grand Final Day.

In your alternative universe, we might sneak a top 4 finish, but likely not contend, let alone win it.

 

[HeathySure]

lol, it's where good clubs build a list to be able to compete with losers with lots of fans (for Australia).

Before you point fingers, you're a minnow compared to my club which has 8m fans, you have what, 2m? True minnow.

You also make $100m a year, we make £150m just selling one home grown player. You're a commercial minnow and a historically unsuccessful given you've only managed to win the same amount of flags as decrepit, broke Norf.

Imagine thinking your history is sooo much better than ours.

3:2... and we are much closer to #3 than you are to #4 (in the AFL) unless of course you count the flags that we couldn't compete in <1925.

Figures you would.

So what is it, 15:10? You won some in the VFL, We won some in the VFA. Considering your support, you're frauds - any way you wish to dice it. Basically England in a tuxedo.

lets win 6 games in a season before you get carried away with dumb predictions

 

[bzparkes]

Huh?

Under your regime, we go to the draft and don't bring in
Hill - Norm Smith Medallist
McStay - crucial in close Qualifying and Preliminary Finals
Mitchell - 4th in our b&f in 2023 and one of our best on Grand Final Day.

In your alternative universe, we might sneak a top 4 finish, but likely not contend, let alone win it.

Clearly reading isn't a strong point of yours as those players were neither drafted, nor cost first round picks.

 

[Fadge]

Worry more about your team's H&A form than a prelim finals loss by 29 points.

At home and off a break, vs a team who had to travel twice, no less.

Yep.

We were beaten in a fantastic Preliminary Final by the eventual back to back premiers.

Absolutely no shame in that, and no reason to throw the baby out with the bathwater, blow the joint up, and 'hope' that we can get back into premiership contention in 5 years time.

 

[bzparkes]

Yep.

We were beaten in a fantastic Preliminary Final by the eventual back to back premiers.

Absolutely no shame in that, and no reason to throw the baby out with the bathwater, blow the joint up, and 'hope' that we can get back into premiership contention in 5 years time.

And that reigning premier just significantly improved their team during this offseason.

Collingwood did not.

 

[Fadge]

The past decade has proven that Colling are, in fact, incapable of drafting and developing players. You may be able to recruit for 'needs', but right now you need to replace 3x 35+ year old players and have no assets to do so.

Really?

Because we've had a strong team with limited opportunities for kids?

West Coast obviously saw something in Macrae (for example), to deem him worthy of a lost spot.

I hope he makes it.

 

[bzparkes]

Really?

Because we've had a strong team with limited opportunities for kids?

West Coast obviously saw something in Macrae (for example), to deem him worthy of a lost spot.

I hope he makes it.

I hope he makes it too but realistically, he'd never have got the chance if we didn't get 4 rookie spots to boost our WAFL team for development purposes.

In regards to limited opportunities for kids, that's what the teams with the best development do, they make opportunities.

McRae is incapable of that because he only wants to win right now, which means only giving those kids bit parts when there's no other choice. Not good for the future.

 

[Fadge]

Not a naysayer but here is my take.

Demattia 10% chance. Won't make it. Still young so he could improve but looks very single positioned, 1 sided and has poor disposal

Allan is 50/50. Still needs to improve to be a regular but should be given an opportunity this year. Has lots of AFL traits but doesn't show enough.

Parker 60/40 will probably play 50 games plus but he is no certainty. Looks hard at it and can play a role. He isn't big or fast but is a smart footballer imo.

Steele 70/30 Mature player with good skills, elite endurance and quick movement and evasion. Should make it imo and was favoured on the wing late season.

Jiath 25/75 looks good at VFL level but with an abundance of back flankers will find it hard to break in unless he physically matures rapidly. Looks bigger bodied this preseason so maybe he will rapidly improve.

West 50/50 Probably our most talked up young player. Showed some really nice marking at VFL but needs to show something at AFL to move the gadge.

Harrison 50/50 has showed a bit at AFL level. Is fast, duel sided and knows how to crumb a goal. The ACL injury was cruel but is back so hopefully he can get back to where he was in 2023/4.

Steene 10/90 won't make it. Just not big or strong enough to ruck and not crafty enough as a forward. Nice Contested marker but who knows at AFL level.

Hayes 25/75 Shows some skills and talent even at AFL with his limited games. But he just doesn't look big or strong enough. Did come back looking stronger this year so maybe.

Howes no chance imo.

Anderson ??? Can't say yet.

Yep, so based on those probabilities between 3 to 5 of those kids make it, which is all we need to maintain playing finals and having a crack at contending for flags.

 

[Trav 20]

It's a little hard to define "making it", but lets define it as playing over 100 games.
According to AI

• A general estimate: A broader analysis of all AFL draftees between 2000 and 2020 suggests that roughly 19% of players drafted will reach the 100-game milestone.
• A specific example: A Sydney Swans-specific analysis of all draftees from 1981–2020 found that 46 of 291 players played 100 or more games, which is approximately 15.8%.

It may not be accurate and there have been a few careers which were in their own way were good careers without playing 100 games or more. But overall most players struggle to get to that milestone.
Yes higher draft picks more commonly make that milestone.

So, you're talking about any players drafted.

Some clubs try to get into the top 30 or 40 to draft talent.

 

[Trav 20]

Lol, we'll be fine

Got the best player in the world, everyone wants to play with him

We're a destination club, no one can take us down

LOL. For years you couldn't get anyone to join you.

I love your delusion.

 

[Cyclops]

Didn't watch Collingwood's 2nd half of the H&A season, I gather?



Yep, certainly many WCE supporters asked the same question regarding the coach and list management.

As for Pendlebury and Sidebottom, the end comes quickly for players of their age.



Can't speak for North, because they just slashed and burned with no plan but Collingwood's current state is incredibly close to WCE's in 2021. In fact, the 2nd half of the season was eerily familiar, with an over reliance on older players and limping to the end of the season.



Again, Collingwood's model is nothing like Geelong's because they usually keep their first rounders and have been good at identifying and developing talent over the past decade. Unlike Collingwood, they don't have an over-reliance of players over 35 in key positions and have brought younger players into the side to phase those older blokes out(Neale, Holmes, Dempsey, etc) of the main positions whilst blending them both in seniors.

Collingwood haven't done this at all, because they don't have the young talent to do this. Nearly a decade of failed drafting outside of a few FS and NGA picks has led to this point.



Your coach is running your team into the ground with his "I don't want picks, I want players" mantra. Watch him jump ship once the Collingwood list crashes and burns.

Sorry Geelong's key players include Dangerfield, Blicavs and Cameron (35, 34 and 32). Dangerfields collapse hurt them as much as Howe and Pendles.

Only Max Holmes is in their league in their under 30 group: Neale and Dempsey seem likely but hardly proven. They have staged yet another finals run with a side of cliff edge players and top ups, its been working since 2011 because the coach is still relevant.

Not sure our drafting is a complete failure, and out recruiting overall has been successful.

It terms of where we are at, this year and next year is similar to Geelong in 24 and 25: its definitely time to find out Dempsey and Neale. We are following a plan that is working at another club, and went well at Richmond (who I think copied hawthorn) before that. It relies on having the network of scouts to scope useful players playing out of position or favour elsewhere.

What West Coast did is obviously different because they were qualitatively a worse side after 2018 than we were after 2023: that side made the most of their luck but imagining they would be repeat grand finalists was starry eyed to say the least. Unlike the eagles, the Pies made it back to the prelims despite the worst drafting in recorded human history. Its apparent we haven't repeated your errors.

 

[bzparkes]

Sorry Geelong's key players include Dangerfield, Blicavs and Cameron (35, 34 and 32). Dangerfields collapse hurt them as much as Howe and Pendles.

Dangerfield's not done much outside the Hawks prelim.

Only Max Holmes is in their league in their under 30 group: Neale and Dempsey seem likely but hardly proven. They have staged yet another finals run with a side of cliff edge players and top ups, its been working since 2011 because the coach is still relevant.

I would say Dempsey's more than proven and Neale came on in leaps and bounds, now that Hawkins is gone.

Not sure our drafting is a complete failure, and out recruiting overall has been successful.

Recruiting's been decent but the drafting failures are unsustainable. That's the issue here.

It terms of where we are at, this year and next year is similar to Geelong in 24 and 25: its definitely time to find out Dempsey and Neale. We are following a plan that is working at another club, and went well at Richmond (who I think copied hawthorn) before that. It relies on having the network of scouts to scope useful players playing out of position or favour elsewhere.

How is Collingwood copying Geelong exactly? Geelong haven't traded out of the pointy end of multiple future drafts for a HBF(Houston) and a pressure forward(Schulz).

They did trade a late-first rounder for a bloke who finished third in the Brownlow and who will probably be around for another decade(off field behaviour notwithstanding).

Also how are you following Richmond's path, when they realised they could no longer compete, jettisoned 3 players for high picks and raided the draft? That's the exact opposite of what Collingwood are doing.

What West Coast did is obviously different because they were qualitatively a worse side after 2018 than we were after 2023: that side made the most of their luck but imagining they would be repeat grand finalists was starry eyed to say the least. Unlike the eagles, the Pies made it back to the prelims despite the worst drafting in recorded human history. Its apparent we haven't repeated your errors.

I mean, we finished one spot below in 2019 to what Collingwood did in 2025 and that was because WCE shit the bed against a lowly Hawthorn.

Conversely, Collingwood made top 4 by grace of GC shitting the bed against Port in Ken's last hurrah.

Luck can go a long way towards making you look great, or terrible, by very small margins.

West Coast also ran into covid, which was a cluster**** for all teams, as well as the worst injury list for 2 years any club's ever seen.

Collingwood got 'lucky' on the other side of the ledger by getting Naicos as a father son and not getting injuries to their senior brigade, because they rarely travel.

Swings and roundabouts.

 

[HeathySure]

Who is replacing Sidebottom, Pendlebury and Howe?

West Coast supporters were calling for the club to rejuvenate the midfield in 2017 and instead, they took Brander and Allen as their first 2 picks before Geelong swooped on Kelly, who we would've taken with the Allen pick if he weren't there.

The midfield was then failed to be addressed properly until 2023, when we picked Reid.

That's how long it took to find an A grade midfielder in the draft. Who was taken at pick 1.

Being ignorant/arrogant and assuming it'll work out because it's Collingwood is how a club ends up like WCE.

yeah na we arent West Coast. We have a generational player to build around, He dragged 6 wins singlehandedly for us last year when we were picking from 25 players due to injuries so unless he is injured even with a bottom list we will finish in the top half.
Reid has been there 2 years now and you won 1 game last year. He isn't even guaranteed to be there when you even look like moving off the bottom.

As for the older players the only player i think will affect our game is Pendlies. he is worth his weight in gold in on field coaching. All the others are easily replaced with good role players

 

[Sector 7G]

Can all the naysayers tell us who out of the following won't make it at AFL level?

DiMattia
Allan
Parker
Steele
Jiath
West
Harrison
Steene
Hayes
Howe
Anderson

I haven't listed our 18 year old draftees from this year.

Because we haven't seen enough of any of them to make a determination either way whilst we've been developing them in the VFL (as all strong clubs do), and if we get a handful of the above make the grade (including our draftees from this year) we're in good shape.

From that list who is likely to be more than a C grader ( who could be pulled from the VFL like Sullivan)? West is tracking in line with expectation for a young tall. Other than that I don't see future A-B graders on that list.

 

[bzparkes]

yeah na we arent West Coast. We have a generational player to build around, He dragged 6 wins singlehandedly for us last year when we were picking from 25 players due to injuries so unless he is injured even with a bottom list we will finish in the top half.
Reid has been there 2 years now and you won 1 game last year. He isn't even guaranteed to be there when you even look like moving off the bottom.

As for the older players the only player i think will affect our game is Pendlies. he is worth his weight in gold in on field coaching. All the others are easily replaced with good role players

Build around him with what? You've got next to no draft capital, no players to trade out(other than the Daicos boys) and you're going to tumble down the ladder right as Tassie is entering and throwing bucket loads of cash at players.

This ain't basketball.

 

[timokane]

Only early days for the kids.
Bit of X factor for the Pies in 2026.
A watch and wait year for us.
Then make suited changes in 12 months.
All on the fitness on pendles side howe again.
And the development of the kids.
Along with Nick playing forward and out of the middle.
Still got it in 2026.
I think we will have our next rebuild in say 2028.
Squeeze eke out another flag in the meantime.