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No Oppo Supporters OPPOSITION OBSERVATION XLIII

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1. Michael Voss (Carlton)

After coming awfully close to being dismissed this year, there irrefutably isn’t anyone on a hotter seat in the competition than Voss, who was allowed to coach into the final year of his current contract in 2026. The Blues under Voss built to a 13-win 2023 campaign that netted a preliminary final berth, before stagnating last year and regressing to nine wins in 2025. But is it finals or bust for the four-year Carlton coach? Should that be the pass mark? Off-season list changes — with Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni all notably departing — complicate matters, as it’s hard to argue Carlton improved its personnel for Voss to utilise. The Blues did gain Will Hayward and Ollie Florent and will hopefully have a healthy Jagga Smith back in the fold, but that still might not be enough in the short term to save Voss.


www.foxsports.com.au

Blues exodus twist in Voss fate; Vic big guns risking axe: 2026 AFL coach pressure gauge

Blues exodus twist in Voss fate; Vic big guns risking axe: AFL coach pressure gauge
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Meteoric Rise said:
Richmond in that 9 game streak beat:

18th St Kilda twice
16th Giants
15th Brisbane
10th Adelaide
9th Eagles
7th Bombers
5th Port Adelaide
1st Sydney.

So you may need to re-calibrate the 511 to 1 odds a bit(in other words, a lot.) Beating 3 finals teams, 2 of those on your home ground and one who had nothing to gain by winning, weeks apart, is a lot easier than beating 5 consecutive finals teams in 5 weeks at least 4 of those not at your chosen venue, probably most at the opponent's chosen venue.

Your odds for the first 3 weeks of finals for a team finishing 7-8th under the new system might be correct. But if you can show me where I can lay them in Preliminary and Grand Finals for $3.50 and $4.00, I would be much obliged. The first team that wins any of those two matches without the benefit of the pre-finals bye, a double chance or the ability to earn a double chance....will be the first team in relevant history to win at least 4 knockout finals in succession in those circumstances. And as I have shown you, about 130 teams have had the opportunity. Not one has got within 80 points if they won their way through to the 4th final. That is the bit you need to get your head around to properly understand the futility of the 7-10th teams playing finals under the new system.

You are using another false comparison with the unlikelihood of Richmond winning 3 of the next 4 flags after 2016. Plenty of teams have won 3 flags in 4 years. Historically, roughly every 4th Premier wins two in succession. So the odds of any random premier you select winning again the next year are 3 to 1.

Available odds will almost always reflect that a team who has won a Premiership is more likely to win the next year than they were to win the first one.

Winning a sequence of 4 consecutive finals, each notionally increasing in difficulty, most of them giving up major disadvantages to your opponent, HAS NEVER HAPPENED bar a team having a double chance or the benefit of a pre-finals bye. Of 130 odd teams who have tried it, only 3 have won their way through to the fourth final. And to repeat, none of those got within 80 points of their Grand Final opponent. Now, you are saying winning 5 consecutive knock-out finals is perfectly possible.

It shouldn't be tough to grasp the fact that if it has thus far proven impossible to win 4 knockout finals without a pre-finals bye, then winning 5 is laughably unlikely to occur.


"I’ve seen 1 team win a flag from 6-8th in 96 attempts across 32 years."

That is not what you actually saw. What you saw was without the pre-finals bye no team without a double chance won a flag ever where they needed to win 4 consecutive finals to do so. That is out of around 130 to attempt the feat. With the pre-finals bye 2 of 40 teams without a double chance have won flags. You are now arguing against the pre-finals bye, which going by relevant history, casts teams 7-8th from a 5% chance of a premiership, to a 0% chance. Making their presence in the finals effectively pointless.
Click to expand...
You prefer finals after the pre-finals the was introduced, I preferred them before. Now we’ve given a better chance of a flag to 1-6th I’m happy.

In 2014 we were 3-10.

Most odds couldn’t be found, but a quick search of our final game v Sydney had us at $3.25 H2H.

Then I can say with almost certainty we would’ve been outsiders in all of these:

v Power (Marvel) who finished 5th.
v Eagles (9th) at their home ground.
v Bombers (7th)
v Crows (10th) at their home ground
v Sydney (first) at their home ground.

I agree we’d have been warm favourites at home against all of Saints x 2, Lions and Giants.

So outsiders in 5 games. Favourites in 4 games. Approx odds:

v Saints $1.33
V Lions $1.33
v Power $2.30
v Eagles $2.50
v Giants $1.33
v Bombers $2.20
v Crows $2.50
v Saints $1.33
v Swans $3.25

= 321/1

Now a team 7th or 8th:

Final 1: $1.50
Final 2: $2.50
Final 3: $3.00
Final 4: $4.00
GF: $4.50

= 202/1

Keep in mind GWS in 2019 were $3.20 H2H v Tigers. Dogs were $2.40 H2H v Sydney. So no way any GF team would be $5.

Whatever the case, it was a much longer shot than a team who might be 14-9 winning 5 in a row when they’d start their first final as very warm favourites.

You can debate all you like, but a team from 3-10 winning 9 in a row was an absolute pipe dream and we all know it. But it happened. So definitively saying a quality team can’t EVER win 5 finals in a row when a crud team can win 9 in a row, including 3 of them away and one against the top team just doesn’t ring true.
 
Last edited:
ShereKhan said:
You prefer finals after the pre-finals the was introduced, I preferred them before. Now we’ve given a better chance of a flag to 1-6th I’m happy.

In 2014 we were 3-10.

Most odds couldn’t be found, but a quick search of our final game v Sydney had us at $3.25 H2H.

Then I can say with almost certainty we would’ve been outsiders in all of these:

v Power (Marvel) who finished 5th.
v Eagles (9th) at their home ground.
v Bombers (7th)
v Crows (10th) at their home ground
v Sydney (first) at their home ground.

I agree we’d have been warm favourites at home against all of Saints x 2, Lions and Giants.

So outsiders in 5 games. Favourites in 4 games. Approx odds:

v Saints $1.33
V Lions $1.33
v Power $2.30
v Eagles $2.50
v Giants $1.33
v Bombers $2.20
v Crows $2.50
v Saints $1.33
v Swans $3.25

= 321/1

Now a team 7th or 8th:

Final 1: $1.50
Final 2: $2.50
Final 3: $3.00
Final 4: $4.00
GF: $4.50

= 202/1

Keep in mind GWS in 2019 were $3.20 H2H v Tigers. Dogs were $2.40 H2H v Sydney. So no way any GF team would be $5.

Whatever the case, it was a much longer shot than a team who might be 14-9 winning 5 in a row when they’d start their first final as very warm favourites.

You can debate all you like, but a team from 3-10 winning 9 in a row was an absolute pipe dream and we all know it. But it happened. So definitively saying a quality team can’t EVER win 5 finals in a row when a crud team can win 9 in a row, including 3 of them away and one against the top team just doesn’t ring true.
Click to expand...

These are just very different assignments. Richmond actually had a bye right in the middle of that 9 in a row sequence. Richmond's odds at the start of the sequence were the odds you would assign to a 3-10 team. But in reality they were not a 3-10 team. Either side of that sequence they went 18-1-8 before in home and away games(from late 2012) and 25-7 after in home and away games to rd 1 2016. So you had a team who went 3w 10l in the middle of a run of 43w 15l. In hindsight, it is easy to see where the outlier sequence is in that. Richmond also would have played several teams who were not prioritising winning during this sequence. This does not occur in finals. They also played 3 games at the MCG v teams who rarely play there, this is extremely unlikely to occur for a team finishing 7th-10th in finals.

The market having misunderstood Richmond on their 9 game run to the 2014 finals will not help teams seeking to win 5 consecutive finals, most at big actual disadvantages like interstate away, no bye for up to 15 weeks v teams who have had a recent week off and in some cases 2 recent weeks off. Then you factor in that in the overwhelming majority of cases, the teams they are facing in finals are simply better than them on top of having these other significant advantages.

Just keep reminding yourself of the one fact you refuse to acknowledge or discuss, 3 teams in history have got to a 4th consecutive knockout final without the benefit of a pre-finals bye or double chance. None were remotely competitive, none of them got within 80 points. Can you even imagine those teams having to play a 5th such game the following week?

My opposition to this new system just boils down to one simple thing. I believe from following the evidence of relevant history that no team can win a flag from 7th or below on the ladder. The disadvantages they face are just too great. In fact history indicates none of them will even be able to win a Preliminary Final ever, and any that make a PF will be slaughtered. So these teams' presence in the finals series is reduced to the status of practice finals for future finals series. There is no other point to them being there.

Remember the difference between 6th and 7th on the ladder could come down to one score. And due to preferential draws etc, it can easily be a 7th placed team has performed better than a 6th placed team in reality. But 6th will start the finals with a small but realistic chance of winning the flag(5-10% range in all normal circumstances) and the 7th team starts the finals with a 0% chance of winning the flag. That is the stupidity of this system.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
These are just very different assignments. Richmond actually had a bye right in the middle of that 9 in a row sequence. Richmond's odds at the start of the sequence were the odds you would assign to a 3-10 team. But in reality they were not a 3-10 team. Either side of that sequence they went 18-1-8 before in home and away games(from late 2012) and 25-7 after in home and away games to rd 1 2016. So you had a team who went 3w 10l in the middle of a run of 43w 15l. In hindsight, it is easy to see where the outlier sequence is in that. Richmond also would have played several teams who were not prioritising winning during this sequence. This does not occur in finals. They also played 3 games at the MCG v teams who rarely play there, this is extremely unlikely to occur for a team finishing 7th-10th in finals.

The market having misunderstood Richmond on their 9 game run to the 2014 finals will not help teams seeking to win 5 consecutive finals, most at big actual disadvantages like interstate away, no bye for up to 15 weeks v teams who have had a recent week off and in some cases 2 recent weeks off. Then you factor in that in the overwhelming majority of cases, the teams they are facing in finals are simply better than them on top of having these other significant advantages.

Just keep reminding yourself of the one fact you refuse to acknowledge or discuss, 3 teams in history have got to a 4th consecutive knockout final without the benefit of a pre-finals bye or double chance. None were remotely competitive, none of them got within 80 points. Can you even imagine those teams having to play a 5th such game the following week?

My opposition to this new system just boils down to one simple thing. I believe from following the evidence of relevant history that no team can win a flag from 7th or below on the ladder. The disadvantages they face are just too great. In fact history indicates none of them will even be able to win a Preliminary Final ever, and any that make a PF will be slaughtered. So these teams' presence in the finals series is reduced to the status of practice finals for future finals series. There is no other point to them being there.

Remember the difference between 6th and 7th on the ladder could come down to one score. And due to preferential draws etc, it can easily be a 7th placed team has performed better than a 6th placed team in reality. But 6th will start the finals with a small but realistic chance of winning the flag(5-10% range in all normal circumstances) and the 7th team starts the finals with a 0% chance of winning the flag. That is the stupidity of this system.
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GhostofJimJess said:
Probably the two best posters on our board.
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"The captain was a good chess player, and the games were always interesting. Yossarian had stopped playing chess with him because the games were so interesting they were foolish."
- Joseph Heller, Catch-22.
 

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