2017 Certainties and planning

[Bandicoot]

With the 2016 season not even half over yet, it probably seems a bit silly to be talking about 2017 but i reckon that there is already a number of players who will be in 80-90% of our DT squads next year. This is obviously on the basis of them getting through pre season OK.
1 - Nathan Fyfe. Having only played 5 games (4 and a half really) Nathan will most likely receive a 15% discount on his already discounted average of 98.6. This means we will be buying the brownlow medalist for an approx 83.8 average score. Other than round 1 this year Fyfe scored 121, 122, 137 and then 59 in 42% game time with a broken leg. TICK.
2. - Dayne Beams. Considering Beamsy had averaged over 100 points each of the past 5 years with his 116 in 2012 being the standout, he will be at basement price next year. An average of 86 from 2 games (66 in second game due to injury) less 25% or more as a discount for having only played two games could bring Beams down to a paltry 64.5. Only thing stopping this could be RDT will look at this and say that even though the system says this is what he should be on, we will not start him at this price. They have done this in the past.
3. - Harley Bennell. Many were looking at Bennell as having a break out season in 2016. After consistently scoring in the 80s mark he jumped that up to 92 in 2015. With dpp (fwd/mid) he was looked upon as one of the forwards we could have this year who would seriously push the 100 average . Not to be. On the bright side, the fact that he has not played a game in 2016 (nor will he says Ross) he will receive a huge discount next year. Based on the Libba and B Crouch examples this year, Harley could expect a 40% discount on his 92 average in 2015 which means he could start next year priced at 55.2. Given fwd/mid positioning next year (even just fwd) he will be one of my first picked.
4. - The Essendon 12. Don't really know what RDT will do regarding the 12 who are currently sitting this year out. If they were to all receive the discount normally given to those who missed the whole of the previous year, the competition would become a little silly as our 30 man squad would already have 15 automatic selections. Will wait on this with interest.
Do you already have someone you've pencilled in for 2017?

 

[Crafty Pig]

Depending what Jack Redden does for the rest of the year he might be worth considering in 2017.

Agree that Fyfe is a cert along with Bennell.

 

[#1_pigeonracer]

I've already taken Jake Carlisle aside and promised a leadership position in my team. Promised he'll only snapchat the canned variety.

 

[CrozaN]

I've already taken Jake Carlisle aside and promised a leadership position in my team. Promised he'll only snapchat the canned variety.

Saw Carlisle at my gym, few weeks ago, was tempted to see if he wanted to join me a for few cheeky ones .

 

[doona]

Saw Carlisle at my gym, few weeks ago, was tempted to see if he wanted to join me a for few cheeky ones .

You would need a bag to entice him

 

[go you pups]

Heppell should be a lock, maybe Hibberd also, but Hibberd really P155ed me off last year. Probably Ryder and maybe Melksham. Watson is too old and injury-prone these days, used to be a gun on the peptides


Don't see any value in Hurley, Carlisle, Hooker, Crameri, Colyer etc even if discounted, can't see them averaging enough to keep

 

[Bandicoot]

Watson is too old and injury-prone these days, used to be a gun on the peptides

 

[Connar]

Ladder:

1. West Coast (Premiers) - Will be more stronger side away from home and only dropping 1 Game at home.
2. Hawthorn - Will continue to be a great side but won't make GF.
3. Sydney (Runner-ups) - Buddy will continue lead his side to September Glory only dropping just the 2 Games at home.
4. Fremantle - Welcome Bennell to the purple army who will take Freo to a 11-1 Record at Subiaco
5. Geelong - Will continue their best form from 2015 with more of Danger's Class.
6. North Melbourne - Very Experienced Side who will go the same way as 2014 but will lose the Elimination Final.
7. Greater Western Sydney - A great up and coming side with lots of great players.
8. Richmond - Great lineup of players who will be back to their best and will break the 16 Year Drought.

_____________________________________

9. Western Bulldogs. A lot to like about the Dogs but they will be very hard to place on the Ladder.
10. Port Adelaide - Will Still be at their best but will continue to miss the 8.
11. Adelaide - Another great side with great players but is very hard to place on Ladder.
12. St Kilda - A Lot to like about the Saints as they continue to be an up and coming team who will cause a few upsets.
13. Carlton - A Team who has a very awesome coach that will cause a few upsets.
14. Collingwood - Will continue to trail off as they always do
15. Melbourne - A lot to like about the Demons as they contain a Great lineup of players but will drop off.
16. Gold Coast - Will be a disapointing year for Suns fans who will continue to miss the 8.
17. Essendon - The Dons may have their full team once again but they will still drop off.
18. Brisbane - Are Certainties for the Wooden Spoon who has a limited number of talent.

 

[QS]

Ladder:

1. West Coast (Premiers) - Will be more stronger side away from home and only dropping 1 Game at home.
2. Hawthorn - Will continue to be a great side but won't make GF.
3. Sydney (Runner-ups) - Buddy will continue lead his side to September Glory only dropping just the 2 Games at home.
4. Fremantle - Welcome Bennell to the purple army who will take Freo to a 11-1 Record at Subiaco
5. Geelong - Will continue their best form from 2015 with more of Danger's Class.
6. North Melbourne - Very Experienced Side who will go the same way as 2014 but will lose the Elimination Final.
7. Greater Western Sydney - A great up and coming side with lots of great players.
8. Richmond - Great lineup of players who will be back to their best and will break the 16 Year Drought.

_____________________________________

9. Western Bulldogs. A lot to like about the Dogs but they will be very hard to place on the Ladder.
10. Port Adelaide - Will Still be at their best but will continue to miss the 8.
11. Adelaide - Another great side with great players but is very hard to place on Ladder.
12. St Kilda - A Lot to like about the Saints as they continue to be an up and coming team who will cause a few upsets.
13. Melbourne - A lot to like about the Demons as they contain a Great lineup of players.
14. Carlton - A Team who has a very awesome coach that will cause a few upsets.
15. Collingwood - Will continue to trail off as they always do
16. Gold Coast - Will be a disapointing year for Suns fans who will continue to miss the 8.
17. Essendon - The Dons may have their full team once again but they will still drop off.
18. Brisbane - Are Certainties for the Wooden Spoon who has a limited number of talent.

Wrong fred bro?

 

[#1_pigeonracer]

Freo in half baked rebuild at 4 is bold.

 

[Scootyb]

O'meara, B.Crouch again if he can establish himself, Bennell

 

[Bandicoot]

O'meara, B.Crouch again if he can establish himself, Bennell

Can't determine O'Meara or Crouch as we don't yet know what their final 2016 averages will be. Both will probably play again this year.

 

[2006_Eagles]

I think a rule for me next year is that some pre season games are a must.

Rocky, GAJ, Jelwood and Brouch played no NAB cup games and all underwhelmed/re-injured.

 

[Bandicoot]

I think a rule for me next year is that some pre season games are a must.

Rocky, GAJ, Jelwood and Brouch played no NAB cup games and all underwhelmed/re-injured.

Include McVeigh in that list too.

 

[Spider Klein]

Do people get a price based on average and a further discount if they don't play enough games. As you explained for Fyfe. I thought if they didn't play enough games they got the discount on their previous years average. Or if they did play enough games it is solely based on their average.

 

[CrozaN]

I think a rule for me next year is that some pre season games are a must.

Rocky, GAJ, Jelwood and Brouch played no NAB cup games and all underwhelmed/re-injured.

Jelwood was out of my team cos of this, but he played that VFL game and had like 37 touches with 12 tackles. I really wish he didn't play that game then i would have gone with Danger instead......sigh .

 

[go you pups]

Freo in half baked rebuild at 4 is bold.

Yes, looks like that was a 2016 prediction to be honest, just um 10-11 weeks too late?

 

[Bandicoot]

Do people get a price based on average and a further discount if they don't play enough games. As you explained for Fyfe. I thought if they didn't play enough games they got the discount on their previous years average. Or if they did play enough games it is solely based on their average.

A player's price for next year is based on their 2016 average. If they play less than 10 games they will normally receive a discount on that. The only players who will be priced on their 2015 average with a discount will be those who did not play at all in 2016 (such as Bennell).

 

[go you pups]

Include McVeigh in that list too.

He finally got his s**t together in the last month, hope it was a getting back into it/appropriate match fitness type of thing which was the cause of his inconsistency during the year after a limited preseason



My 2017 starting targets
McVeigh, should keep DEF/MID, only averaged 82.5 and finally started producing in the last 4 weeks, surely with a full preseason he averages 90-95 and bes a defensive keeper

Johannisen, absolute gun, please keep injury-free

Treloar, gun, ultra consistent, works through and breaks tags, will win a Brownlow, don't mind paying top dollar to start with him next year

Neale, massive ceiling, not as good against the tag, but Fyfe will deflect pressure from him you'd think, don't mind paying top dollar also

Macrae, averaged 98.8, he's capable of 105-110, very consistent, only 3 scores under 80 which were a 78, 69 and 70 (did a hammy in 3rd quarter), his scores stay largely the same, no role change or anything impacts on him, will be a POD too

Dusty, hope he's a straight mid finally next year, IMO he should've been this year, will be a POD if he is next year though, the potential is there for him to do a Danger and go 110-115+ 14 100s this year, durable, ticks many boxes for a straight mid

GAWN, no brainer, best ruck in the comp

Lycett, if he retains FWD/RUCK DPP, a lock as a starting R2 with no NicNat around, turns into a F7/R3 later in the year

Dahlhaus, hope he retains MID/FWD DPP, won't touch him if he's a straight mid though, was ultra consistent and his 92.3 average is lower than what it would've been if he went through the year injury-free (injury score of 32)



Maybes

Matt Crouch, could be a smokey, kid can score points and his way better than his brother, finished the year strongly after a mediocre start to the season

Gaff, clearly the concussion effected him but he's a gun and has a DT game, underpriced next year for what he's capable of with a 93.5 avg

Brandon Ellis, way below par this year with a 89.5 avg and is trade bait. If he gets his act together then you have an underpriced premium starter

Tom Lynch (GCS), will be the best key forward in the game very soon, surely he averages 90-100 very soon. 86.2 avg in a poor Gold Coast side is a very good effort

Dayne Beams, 86 avg from 2 games, really injury prone now but is a gun DTer when fit, probably start with him then upgrade on him if he doesn't look like being a top 10-15 mid

Kurt Tippett, was massive before he got injured imo, would take a brave player to start with him but he clearly was a 95 avg RUCK/FWD before injury dropped him to 84 avg

Essendon types, particularly Heppell and Stanton. I don't think I can start with Zerrett with these 2 back in the frame, but 1 of these 2 should be ok


Marc Murphy????? Could be Bryce Gibbs MK2

 

[Bandicoot]

He finally got his s**t together in the last month, hope it was a getting back into it/appropriate match fitness type of thing which was the cause of his inconsistency during the year after a limited preseason



My 2017 starting targets
McVeigh, should keep DEF/MID, only averaged 82.5 and finally started producing in the last 4 weeks, surely with a full preseason he averages 90-95 and bes a defensive keeper

Johannisen, absolute gun, please keep injury-free

Treloar, gun, ultra consistent, works through and breaks tags, will win a Brownlow, don't mind paying top dollar to start with him next year

Neale, massive ceiling, not as good against the tag, but Fyfe will deflect pressure from him you'd think, don't mind paying top dollar also

Macrae, averaged 98.8, he's capable of 105-110, very consistent, only 3 scores under 80 which were a 78, 69 and 70 (did a hammy in 3rd quarter), his scores stay largely the same, no role change or anything impacts on him, will be a POD too

Dusty, hope he's a straight mid finally next year, IMO he should've been this year, will be a POD if he is next year though, the potential is there for him to do a Danger and go 110-115+ 14 100s this year, durable, ticks many boxes for a straight mid

GAWN, no brainer, best ruck in the comp

Lycett, if he retains FWD/RUCK DPP, a lock as a starting R2 with no NicNat around, turns into a F7/R3 later in the year

Dahlhaus, hope he retains MID/FWD DPP, won't touch him if he's a straight mid though, was ultra consistent and his 92.3 average is lower than what it would've been if he went through the year injury-free (injury score of 32)



Maybes

Matt Crouch, could be a smokey, kid can score points and his way better than his brother, finished the year strongly after a mediocre start to the season

Gaff, clearly the concussion effected him but he's a gun and has a DT game, underpriced next year for what he's capable of with a 93.5 avg

Brandon Ellis, way below par this year with a 89.5 avg and is trade bait. If he gets his act together then you have an underpriced premium starter

Tom Lynch (GCS), will be the best key forward in the game very soon, surely he averages 90-100 very soon. 86.2 avg in a poor Gold Coast side is a very good effort

Dayne Beams, 86 avg from 2 games, really injury prone now but is a gun DTer when fit, probably start with him then upgrade on him if he doesn't look like being a top 10-15 mid

Kurt Tippett, was massive before he got injured imo, would take a brave player to start with him but he clearly was a 95 avg RUCK/FWD before injury dropped him to 84 avg

Essendon types, particularly Heppell and Stanton. I don't think I can start with Zerrett with these 2 back in the frame, but 1 of these 2 should be ok


Marc Murphy????? Could be Bryce Gibbs MK2

A few doggies in your list there pups. I wonder why??
I know it is silly to speculate 6 months in advance but my sure things at this stage are:
Rocky - an average of 116+ where he was injured in the first 1/4 in two games scoring 24 & 33 respectively. MUST HAVE.
D Beams - Will be priced in the mid 60's range. For someone who was a regular 100+ that offer is just too good to say no to.
N Fyfe - Played only 5 games hence will get around a 15% discount on his 98.6 average. Keep in mind 2 of those 5 games were in the 50s (one being due to injury). A value of low to mid 80's for Fyfe. Again, a steal at that price.
H Bennell - There is speculation that he may never play again and one can only assume it is a drug related issue. Maybe it is just the media being the media and there is no substance to it. I hope that is the case because he will be another steal at his 2017 starting price. Will no be a mid/fwd who is capable of a 100+ year (averaged 92 in 2015 where he was having issues) and will be priced next year in the mid 60s.
J O'Meara - who ever he goes to will get a gun. So many people had him in their prospective starting line ups this year and he will be even cheaper again next year. Might have a dodgy knee but if he gets through a pre season OK will most definitely be in my team.
S Martin - Started 2016 as the highest priced player and was just average in the first few weeks and was then KO'd in round 4. Really struggled for the following 8 weeks due to that and also dumb-arse Leppitch playing West as the number 1 ruck. Went back to his normal self in the back half of the year averaging 104 over the past 8 weeks which included one lousy score.
Not sure how RDT will price the banned players. Assuming they get the same discounts as others who have missed 12 months Heppell will offer great value. As may Hibberd assuming he's at Melbourne and Ryder could be a handy F6 as he will no doubt be given ruck/fwd status which will help with my R3 being a ruck/fwd rookie whoever that might be.
My defence was my weakness this year when I got left with Rich, Yeo and Suckling towards the end of the year. Considering paying full price on my opening defence by starting Shaw, Laird, Docherty and probably Hibberd. Will see what the draft and pre-season brings up.
There are a number of maybes as well including Murphy, Aish, D Swallow & Vardy.
Can't come around soon enough.

 

[go you pups]

A few doggies in your list there pups. I wonder why??

Only 3 mate, surely they all have injury-free years next year, we are a DT relevant side, potential bargains/keepers there, probably Macrae is the only one who would be squeezed out, but I'm very strong on the other two

I know it is silly to speculate 6 months in advance but my sure things at this stage are:
Rocky - an average of 116+ where he was injured in the first 1/4 in two games scoring 24 & 33 respectively. MUST HAVE.

Waste of trades the last two years, has early season injury history, upgrade option for me

D Beams - Will be priced in the mid 60's range. For someone who was a regular 100+ that offer is just too good to say no to.

Yeah probably a lock, but everyone will have him if so

N Fyfe - Played only 5 games hence will get around a 15% discount on his 98.6 average. Keep in mind 2 of those 5 games were in the 50s (one being due to injury). A value of low to mid 80's for Fyfe. Again, a steal at that price.

Injury history worries me, SC target for me, will need to keep tabs on him over summer

H Bennell - There is speculation that he may never play again and one can only assume it is a drug related issue. Maybe it is just the media being the media and there is no substance to it. I hope that is the case because he will be another steal at his 2017 starting price. Will no be a mid/fwd who is capable of a 100+ year (averaged 92 in 2015 where he was having issues) and will be priced next year in the mid 60s.

Pass for me, injury history is disgusting even with the discount, only ever plays 15 games a year

Outside players historically struggle at Freo too

When has Hill or Pearce ever dominated the points? They always seem to be 80-90 avg types

J O'Meara - who ever he goes to will get a gun. So many people had him in their prospective starting line ups this year and he will be even cheaper again next year. Might have a dodgy knee but if he gets through a pre season OK will most definitely be in my team.

Yeah probably will look at him, should be around 250k, then upgrade on him, can only see him averaging around 80-85

S Martin - Started 2016 as the highest priced player and was just average in the first few weeks and was then KO'd in round 4. Really struggled for the following 8 weeks due to that and also dumb-arse Leppitch playing West as the number 1 ruck. Went back to his normal self in the back half of the year averaging 104 over the past 8 weeks which included one lousy score.

Upgrade target if he's the number 1 or 2 ruck, was not impressed with him this year, though Leppa was partly to blame too

Not sure how RDT will price the banned players. Assuming they get the same discounts as others who have missed 12 months Heppell will offer great value. As may Hibberd assuming he's at Melbourne and Ryder could be a handy F6 as he will no doubt be given ruck/fwd status which will help with my R3 being a ruck/fwd rookie whoever that might be.

Will probably take one or two

The midpricers strategy worked for DaTBird this year with guys like Hall, Pittard, Rich, Viney and Wines gaining him early season crucial points before he upgraded on most of them to standouts in their positions, someone like Beams/JOM probably could be upgraded on throughout the year

 

[Schulzenfest]

Hamish Hartlett went from 96 ppg as a midfielder last season to 79 ppg as a half back this season. Will surely get SD eligibility for next season.

Keep an eye on his preseason. If he's back playing midfield, jump on.

 

[CrozaN]

Bont anyone?

Average of 109 after round 7!

 

[Bandicoot]

Bont anyone?

Average of 109 after round 7!

Good point. 109 would certainly put him in the top group of midfielders and you are basically getting a 10% discount on that.

 

[CrozaN]

Good point. 109 would certainly put him in the top group of midfielders and you are basically getting a 10% discount on that.

Exactly